Racing Melbourne Cup 2017

[vWestCoast]

There goes all my futures bets on Almandin ****ing Frankie Dettori

 

[juice t]

There's only one man who can save you now Lloyd

View attachment 432626

Now we know that Lloyd is reading this board

 

[Hamingja]

I was going to wait until final field to make sure he drew ok (can't afford bad draw with the extra weight this year) and load up on Almandin.

Couldn't he have picked up one of the Aus jockeys in HK like Purton, Prebble or even the Chad.

 

[00Stinger]

There goes all my futures bets on Almandin ******* Frankie Dettori

Tell me about. I loaded up on it too

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[juice t]

I was going to wait until final field to make sure he drew ok (can't afford bad draw with the extra weight this year) and load up on Almandin.

Couldn't he have picked up one of the Aus jockeys in HK like Purton, Prebble or even the Chad.

If Dettori is avaliable he's always gotta be a first option among jockeys
Reputation being the main reason

 

[HeathySure]

And cos i am bored i will do a Melbourne Cup assessment of all the acceptors

Almadin - Runs on the board. Lloyd knows how to win this race. Should be fave and shorter in my eyes
Humidor - We all saw what happened Saturday but huge distance doubt. be willing to leave out of everything
Marmelo - Ok run in the C cup . Same form as Protectionist. Needs to do improve like Protectionist. Starting to warm to him a bit
Johannes Vermeer - somewhere around the 600m mark he will be going ...wtf .. i am still running? Huge distance doubt willing to leave out of everything
Red Cardinal - Can Entertain. ok run last start, not really given a chance but cannot dismiss. Minus that he hasnt run in Australia yet. about the right odds
Wall of Fire - form in hindsight is ok . Class worry. may not be fast enough. slight 1st 4 hope
Big Duke - very ordinary on Saturday. will run the distance. fairly slowly. Willing to dismiss
Rekindling - Seems to be a big slow plodder but lightly weighted. i dont know. Stable.
Tiberian - Going well, not sure about the class but it is a weak cup. Jockey having first ride in Australia big minus. chuck in the trifectas
Hartnell - I hate this horse. it is the hands down most over rated horse ever HOWEVER. it can win. Ran 3rd last year was trapped wide for a lot of the race. meeting Almadin better at the weights. Preperation is the worry. if hes 20s worth a small bet
Max Dynamite - going ordinary. but it has placed before therefore proven. Can win probably wont. chuck it in the 1st 4s
Thomas Hobson - doesnt seem to be the right type of horse to win a cup. plodder.
Amalies Star - not good enough. Weir will need to pull a Prince of Penzance .
Boom Time - not good enough . Sorry good win in the CC had its birthday . will struggle for a top 10 spot
Nakeeta - Won the Ebor like Heartbreak City. Overs - minus is it hasnt run in Australia but can win. Way overs
Ventura Storm - #stormo will make a miraculous recovery if it runs. Did beat Humidor home in the Turnbull. Ordinary despite almost dying in the CC. probably no.
Abbey Marie - lol
Harlem - lolol
Jon Snow - hes a horse a GOT character and an ex cricketer!! yeah nah
Single Gaze - gallant in CC. Kathy Ohara is a babe thats all i got to say, she will finish about 15th
US Army Ranger - no idea. at his best can run but also can run a shocker, chuck it in the 1st 4s
Who shot the Barman - goes ok in this race. Cannot win. might sneak into 4th
Wicklow Brave - 34s on the TAB market. 340s its right price
Libran - will be wondering why its not going around in the sydney *******fest staying races . No
Qewy - Grew a leg in Australia last year. 4th so can do it. But seems to have problems this year. willing to leave out
Aloft - pacemaker - no
Foundry - maybe tomorrow in the Bendigo cup
Gallante - going terrible - no
Vengue Masque - best roughie by miles. Sat in the death in the Geelong cup which is a good form race for the cup and sitting in the death is the hardest thing to do in any staying race (ok was biased track but still a good effort). Trainer knows how to win the cup. should be 25s
Bondi Beach - will be running in benchmark 64s in some northern NSW stable in 12 months
Kellstorm - not good enough BUT did run past Almadin last time they met. at 200/1 have a dollar on it (one for the ladies !!)
Alward - nup
Cismontane - Moonee Valley 3000m night races here i come
Cool Chap - David Hayes aiming too high again
Guardini - could not beat Lord Durante last Friday night . 100000000000000000000000/1
Pentathlon - Oakbank

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Frankie confirmed for Almandin

Great, that narrows it down to 9 now.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

I’m confused as to why Johannes isn’t going to get the trip? He’s done nothing to suggest he won’t. If anything, he’s a fair chance to be even better over it. He would be my top pick right now.

 

[Duritz]

I’m confused as to why Johannes isn’t going to get the trip? He’s done nothing to suggest he won’t. If anything, he’s a fair chance to be even better over it. He would be my top pick right now.

Does have boom time form.

 

[HeathySure]

I’m confused as to why Johannes isn’t going to get the trip? He’s done nothing to suggest he won’t. If anything, he’s a fair chance to be even better over it. He would be my top pick right now.

Well the furthest he has run is 2400 meters, He was in the right part of the track in the CC and despite being the greatest moral ever being beaten in a group 1 race, his run finished 50 meters from the line.

 

[Hamingja]

Looking back through Protectionist's form I can't believe it went back to Germany and went bang, bang, bang after its form for Lees here.

 

[Jack Gun Cyril Stun]

Just saw this posted in another thread on BF

Talk about a horse that seems to have none a the 200 to 150 later winning virtually eased up - a true win for the age

Watch 86 MCup, Kiwi nearly does it again as a 9yo !!...but breaks down about 100m from WP.
May not win, but gee he goes close.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Well the furthest he has run is 2400 meters, He was in the right part of the track in the CC and despite being the greatest moral ever being beaten in a group 1 race, his run finished 50 meters from the line.

I guess we’ll just agree to disagree. Aside from racing like a dodgem car, I didnt see his run ending at the 50 at all. I could probably name 5+ in the last 10 years that wouldn’t have seen the trip before winning. He seems as well placed as any of them.

 

[Jugada]

JV has been a solid 1600-2000m horse. A bit like a Green Moon type so you probably need a slowly run race for him to be effective and you would want to be getting at least 20-1 for the fact he hasn't shown any staying ability yet

 

[Mobythepom]

I was worried he might have lost a leg. I really don't get it. His form ties in arguably stronger than Marmelo, comes here in career best form, ticks so many boxes

Really confusing drift

Doubtful that it will stay a well run 3,200m for me (form over 3,000m but best at shorter and breeding gives serious cause for concern that it needs this trip). Campaigned very much as a 2,400m horse in France and no experience of the hustle and bustle if a race like the MC. Would prefer some cut in the ground and no acclimatisation run. Just drifting to it's correct price IMO.

 

[iluvparis]

Couldn't he have picked up one of the Aus jockeys in HK like Purton, Prebble or even the Chad.

Yes if he wanted someone grossly inferior to ride him

 

[iluvparis]

If Dettori is avaliable he's always gotta be a first option among jockeys
Reputation being the main reason

Skill being the main reason

Zac Purton? lel

 

[Hamingja]

If the cup was run in the UK sure. Out here he has a worse record than Khawaja in India.

 

[iluvparis]

I’m confused as to why Johannes isn’t going to get the trip? He’s done nothing to suggest he won’t. If anything, he’s a fair chance to be even better over it. He would be my top pick right now.

Not many European trainers let alone Aiden would run their horse in mile/2000m races for pretty much their entire career if they thought it was a 2 mile horse. Had one go in 2400 in the UK and was beaten by a much lower rated stablemate. If he comes out and wins it suggests his entire career has been completely mismanaged by Aiden so far. Possible, but unlikely.

 

[iluvparis]

Looking back through Protectionist's form I can't believe it went back to Germany and went bang, bang, bang after its form for Lees here.

That's because a lot of German form is garbage with no depth - unless your on Red Cardinal antepost

 

[Duritz]

Skill being the main reason

Zac Purton? lel

Zac on fire in HK this season. Riding better than the over rated Argentinian

 

[iluvparis]

Doubtful that it will stay a well run 3,200m for me (form over 3,000m but best at shorter and breeding gives serious cause for concern that it needs this trip). Campaigned very much as a 2,400m horse in France and no experience of the hustle and bustle if a race like the MC. Would prefer some cut in the ground and no acclimatisation run. Just drifting to it's correct price IMO.

3000m/2400m form in Europe is always good enough to stay 3200m in Australia. If you are guaranteed to stay it in Europe you are generally too slow.

The points you made would apply exactly the same to Marmelo and he ran fine first up in the Caulfield Cup.

 

[Hamingja]

That's because a lot of German form is garbage with no depth - unless your on Red Cardinal antepost

Watching the Kergolay I think it would be impossible to back Red Cardinal.

 

[Hamingja]

I’m confused as to why Johannes isn’t going to get the trip? He’s done nothing to suggest he won’t. If anything, he’s a fair chance to be even better over it. He would be my top pick right now.

So many distance queries this year. Have those dosage things been released? I'd prefer to take the chance on JV than a few of the others. Wall of Fire on the Herbert Power run looks ok but it's sire was a miler and been beaten a long way in its 3200m runs. Still leaning back to getting Frankie'd tbh.

 

[Hamingja]

"There's not much point in putting someone on that weighs 52[kg] is there?" Williams said. "Steven Arnold would be an example of a rider like that and he would have been my first pick.

"But he is Mauritius and riding in Mauritius on short course horses is no good practice for a Melbourne Cup."

Well it could have been worse than Frankie I guess.