Racing Melbourne Cup Day 2022

[balmainforever]

Anyone who decides to say that they've backed the winner here with no previous mention of it on the board will be given a week holiday

 

[Chism]

Gold Trip definitely starting 20s the way things are trending. Thought for sure that would be one that money would come for after good runs in the CC and CP and the fact he wants the wet

Form is there but the winning strike rate is what worries me.

I also said that about Icebath though on Derby day which I didn’t back after following it religiously for a while.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Lol we may as well not discuss anything if we are just going to say every result is theoretically possible

It’s not so much in that way. But in the Shelby 66 way where horses can just be going well on a good profile and win something they shouldn’t.

Seems a shade arrogant to go people over a ROF tip when starting price is king in this game and it’s on the second line.

The moves and tips should be a tool not a “lol these people be stupid”. I don’t rate the horse… at all. But I might keep it safer now.

 

[Suncraze]

Gold Trip definitely starting 20s the way things are trending. Thought for sure that would be one that money would come for after good runs in the CC and CP and the fact he wants the wet

#they?
Knights Order has been wound in

 

[iluvparis]

#they?
Knights Order has been wound in

Weather fappers

Only two horses have done the Sydney Melbourne cup double. Carbine and the Diva. He is probably not that good

 

[IKnowtheDog]

 

[Jugada]

It’s not so much in that way. But in the Shelby 66 way where horses can just be going well on a good profile and win something they shouldn’t.

Seems a shade arrogant to go people over a ROF tip when starting price is king in this game and it’s on the second line.

The moves and tips should be a tool not a “lol these people be stupid”. I don’t rate the horse… at all. But I might keep it safer now.

If you are just going to default to the market being correct then again there is no point discussing anything. Ill back my own judgement in. This isn't an ex Japanese horse that has been backed off the map first up here or something, they're all well exposed horses where we all have the same information to work from and if its far too short in the market for me that will be where my opinion sits

 

[iluvparis]

By this point dont you just lay the fave for the entire amount staked?

 

[Chism]

Form is there but the winning strike rate is what worries me.

I also said that about Icebath though on Derby day which I didn’t back after following it religiously for a while.

Just on Icebath my Mrs actually told me it just won after it did when I was busy playing Snooker with a few in laws and turned off the races to a background thing cause Derby Day is just a prick to pick a winner. She knew I followed it but didn’t touch it on Saturday.

Yeah nek minute bang with a did you back it hun??

 

[iluvparis]

Just on Icebath my Mrs actually told me it just won after it did when I was busy playing Snooker with a few in laws and turned off the races to a background thing cause Derby Day is just a prick to pick a winner. She knew I followed it but didn’t touch it on Saturday.

Yeah nek minute bang with a did you back it hun??

Deserved punishment from the punting gods for turning off Derby Day

 

[Chism]

Deserved punishment from the punting gods for turning off Derby Day

It wasn’t off it was just background music by his race!

To many so called experts also told me La Crique or whatever the Fu c k his name was is/or was also unbeatable.

 

[Suncraze]

#they?
Knights Order has been wound in

Agree
Will be in my F4s but if it wins I'll be losing

 

[IKnowtheDog]

The difficulties of two negatives in a sentence

 

[Chism]

The difficulties of two negatives in a sentence

Can you still join up and get the 100-1 on him??

Interesting to see IF DL wins and the bets are honored or they go into immediate receivership.

 

[year of the cat]

Can you still join up and get the 100-1 on him??

Interesting to see IF DL wins and the bets are honored or they go into immediate receivership.

No.

Please don’t.

 

[Ari]

Can you still join up and get the 100-1 on him??

Interesting to see IF DL wins and the bets are honored or they go into immediate receivership.

Yep. Said the same a week back.

I missed the $100 on DL. I took Knights Order hoping for rain so let’s see. In to 13’s now, which is surely unders.

 

[FallingLiefs]

If you are just going to default to the market being correct then again there is no point discussing anything. Ill back my own judgement in. This isn't an ex Japanese horse that has been backed off the map first up here or something, they're all well exposed horses where we all have the same information to work from and if its far too short in the market for me that will be where my opinion sits

Would like to think there’s a difference in backing yourself and then telling people they have no idea. One of those seems really self confident the other self absorbed but that’s just me. I’m not really one to write off someone’s opinion because it’s different if it has some logic behind it. Anyway enough about the depths this forum has got to. Monte for me quite easily a bet. 9,10,11 only roughies I’m working around in a skinny MC provided it doesn’t get too heavy.

 

[qarocks]

Here is a fun experiment. I am going to try and tip the winner, quinella, trifecta and first four.
I use a spreadsheet that assigns weighted points based on a horses stats and adjusts for efficiency of each stat.
I then weight these scores based on barrier and weight.
I have managed to find the winner in my top 4 in the last 2 years (out of 2), so my sample size for this is 2.

to accomplish this goal i just worked out what position i had the horses than finished top 10 to find any trends.
using the trends i found, i grabbed the horses i have ranked for 2022 to fill in the placings.

lets see how it goes.

Soft (I am adding DL because everyone here has a hard on for it)

1st - 6/8/9/19/22
2nd - 19/6/22/9/16/18/20/3/5/12/8 (100% = $40 or 10% = $4)
3rd - 19/6/22/9/16/18/20/3/5/12/8/24 (100% = $500 or 10% = $50)
4th - 19/6/22/9/16/18/20/3/12/8/24/2/5/14/10 (100% = $6000 or 10% = $600)

Exotic returns could be pretty low considering DLs price is so short .. so first four with this method doesnt seem very viable.

I will be having a crack at the winner, quinella and trifecta with the above numbers (I will update tomorrow if there are scratchings/gets to heavy)

 

[toxic]

Weather fappers

Only two horses have done the Sydney Melbourne cup double. Carbine and the Diva. He is probably not that good

Probably.... lmfao

Definitely not that good

 

[Chism]

Interesting watching Just Racing now with Ross and Hamish on channel 78 they had an interview with JMac talking about the Cup after his mount was scratched. His top choice was DL but said only if the rain stayed away……. Seriously doubts his effectiveness on a heavy track.

Interesting to see what track conditions we are on tomorrow and we have had a fair bit of rain here today. Not to mention what we cop during the day tomorrow which will chop it up even more.

 

[awfl]

Is anyone keen on Norwegian bliss in race 10 at randwick? Thinking I'll put the $1k on it if DL salutes. 6 from 6 can't see it losing in this field

 

[toxic]

Interesting watching Just Racing now with Ross and Hamish on channel 78 they had an interview with JMac talking about the Cup after his mount was scratched. His top choice was DL but said only if the rain stayed away……. Seriously doubts his effectiveness on a heavy track.

Interesting to see what track conditions we are on tomorrow and we have had a fair bit of rain here today. Not to mention what we cop during the day tomorrow which will chop it up even more.

Did JMac give a theory behind his theory?

I'm assuming he's never been aboard DL

 

[CupperTea]

Very open race with many chances, if I had to pick 5 I would take the following-

• Without a fight
• Montefilia
• Stockman
• Interpretation
• Duais

They will all fight out 2nd place 5 lengths behind the dominant winner Deauville Legend. Absolute Moral

 

[Chism]

Did JMac give a theory behind his theory?

I'm assuming he's never been aboard DL

Not really just said connections want the rain to stay away and he was not confident if the track was wet.

Take from it what you will but these jockeys know a lot more than what we do.

 

[Chism]

Very open race with many chances, if I had to pick 5 I would take the following-

• Without a fight
• Montefilia
• Stockman
• Interpretation
• Duais

They will all fight out 2nd place 5 lengths behind the dominant winner Deauville Legend. Absolute Moral

What are you putting on DL??

 

[iluvparis]

Not really just said connections want the rain to stay away and he was not confident if the track was wet.

Take from it what you will but these jockeys know a lot more than what we do.

Last time I heard the connections they thought he would handle any ground?

I guess the rain brings some of the complete walkers he would belt on dry into play.