Pakenhamsaint
Hall of Famer
- Jan 5, 2011
- 48,416
- 40,460
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
The religious nutters of the party won't care. They will keep white anting to get rid of him.
Moira Deeming v John Pesutto
- Thread starter Jascave
- Start date
- Tagged users None
hawkman
Hall of Famer
Depends which side of the party gains the most seats upon gaining government. It might be easier if he is premier to get rid of him
They don't really have a 10 point lead though.
It's basically an even split on the 2PP polling, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7%.
Interest rates easing, the completion of major projects like the metro tunnel and a friendlier budget before the election would make it extremely difficult for the LNP to win back the vast number of seats required.
Likewise polling based predictions have tended to underestimate the Labor's final share of seats come the last two state elections.
I don't agree with Allen basically trying to run a small target strategy whilst in actual government, but they could definitely shake things up as the election approaches, particularly given better economic considerations.
One very important point to remember as well, is the timeline.
2026 could see a Trump and/or Dutton governments in power and the shitshow they bring with them. There's no better shot in the arm for Labor's electoral fortunes (especially in Vic) than seeing a federal or global conservative movement really feeling itself.
Make sure you mention the margin of error when quoting polling results you like as well.
IMO the current polling if replicated at an election would not translate into a Coalition majority government, but the very first thing that the Coalition need is a primary vote in the 40s, and they're showing that pretty consistently now (which minimises margin of error claims). Based on the polling it would be an error to change leaders right now.
I do since working with numbers is part of my daily.
I don't think the current polling is bad TBH.
Nor do I think it holds if interest rates begin to come down in the new year.
It definitely won't hold if we start to see more Liberal/conservative governments in the news.
Like it or lump it, we both know that Trump 24/7 and plausibly a Dutton government, or a Queensland win for the Libs that involves ditching mining royalties, winding vack abortion rights and so on, would be poison for the Libs chances in Vic.
Maybe if the election was today it'd be a tight race with Labor struggling to achieve a minority government. But the price gouging, CoL factors and high(er) interest rates have a finite timeframe before they swing back to more favourable territory.
Just as governments can die due to economic and political trends outside their control, so can they live by them.
I think only the Dutton point is relevant. When the Victorian Libs won in 1992 and 2010 they were in Opposition federally. Queensland and the USA are irrelevant IMO.
Not Important
never test the depth of water with both feet.
- Oct 4, 2016
- 9,566
- 15,378
- AFL Club
- Tasmania
i have a feeling the extreme reactionaries are less concerned with election wins than they are about getting hold of your party and turning it to the right.
pesuto, given some free air, should ensure a return to government. not sure the extreme reactionaries will cease undermining him in gov’t though
To how state Labor may campaign and the messaging they will deploy?
Likewise for the "fringe" element of the state Libs and how they will carry-on in the press and social media.
You and I both know that a handful of rogue cranks, even if it is a minority, only have to slip up once and poison the well with regards to race, LGBTQ+ rights, abortion and so on, to undo a campaign in this state.
I'm a firm believer in hip pocket issues deciding elections.
But there is a subset of the state Liberal party who won't be able to help themselves and that is what will spook voters. Likewise the Murdoch press.
Maybe, maybe not.
The election is a long time away. I'm typically a pessimist (from a Labor/Greens/left-ish perspective), but everything will have to go right over too long of a period for the Libs to get in power.
It might happen, but if the polls in 2026 are split on the 2PP, I wouldn't count on it.
Just on the "extreme right flank" issue...
They haven't had a great 18 months internally. An alignment of sane conservatives and moderates have ensured consecutive victories in internal elections in the Victorian Liberal Party. Phil Davis was re-elected Party President with an increased majority. His ticket won all the single member spots.
So a large section of the party still want to see stability and a return to government in Victoria. While the reactionaries and opportunists will still seek an opening to tear things down, that large section of the party will look very dimly on someone who obviously is trying to sabotage the chance to win a very winnable election. The reactionaries and opportunists have not been able to coalesce a realistic challenge while JP has literally been in a witness box defending a defamation action from within. They are not in a position of strength right now.
I do, however, think that LNP 2PP needs to get to something like 52, but if the North and West of Melbourne are swinging, then everything becomes unpredictable.
They haven't had a great 18 months internally. An alignment of sane conservatives and moderates have ensured consecutive victories in internal elections in the Victorian Liberal Party. Phil Davis was re-elected Party President with an increased majority. His ticket won all the single member spots.
So a large section of the party still want to see stability and a return to government in Victoria. While the reactionaries and opportunists will still seek an opening to tear things down, that large section of the party will look very dimly on someone who obviously is trying to sabotage the chance to win a very winnable election. The reactionaries and opportunists have not been able to coalesce a realistic challenge while JP has literally been in a witness box defending a defamation action from within. They are not in a position of strength right now.
I do, however, think that LNP 2PP needs to get to something like 52, but if the North and West of Melbourne are swinging, then everything becomes unpredictable.
That's a fair assessment, but don't forget you come at this from an insiders perspective.
The average punter often just hears the noise and knows what's going on with his bank account.
They don't catch the nuance of a party's inner dynamics. And it only takes one dickhead going rogue. Maybe that wouldn't matter, but if economic conditions improve, for whatever reason the electorate in this state does seem to be much more sensitive or at least allergic to the rightwing platform.
Particularly on social issues. That's enough to do damage if the status quo is looking less anaemic.
Who knows though, Israel could walk the US into conflict with Iran and Syria (again), which would arguably see retaliatory attacks on Saudi, UAE etc. oil and gas infrastructure, as well as shipping lanes.
Another even bigger commodities price shock and all bets are off.
Last edited:
Not Important
never test the depth of water with both feet.
- Oct 4, 2016
- 9,566
- 15,378
- AFL Club
- Tasmania
more likely to be a hung parliament as we speak as i see it. but the libs best chance is a centre-right leader. also, the unelected extreme right reactionary shouters do that party no favours. it still resonates with me that credlin had the nerve to put in one of her exposed emails to deeming that she (deeming) will be leader someday.
hawkman
Hall of Famer
Being exposed to Abbott probably made her think anybody could be a leader someday
Pakenhamsaint
Hall of Famer
- Jan 5, 2011
- 48,416
- 40,460
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
She does have two things that will help.
Metro Tunnel and West Gate Tunnel both opening.
hawkman
Hall of Famer
Metro Tunnel yes. Not sure the West Gate Tunnel will be the solution that everyone thinks it is
- Thread starter
- #66
It looks like a potential leaders challenge to John Pesutto on Tuesday is over before it even takes place, thanks to 1) a timely opinion poll which shows the Coalition has a 10 point lead over Labor; and 2) no one seems to decide who has the courage to challenge Pesutto. But even though talk of a leadership spill has died out for now, don't be surprised to see it spark up again if the judge hands down the decision in favour of Moira Deeming.
On 5002X using BigFooty.com mobile app
On 5002X using BigFooty.com mobile app
I think it proves Credlin is lead opportunist. She will literally say anything to anyone to urinate in their pocket.
Where would Deeming get a lower house seat to become leader? It's preposterous.
Not Important
never test the depth of water with both feet.
- Oct 4, 2016
- 9,566
- 15,378
- AFL Club
- Tasmania
precisely t.p, and to deeming’s credit, she did say in her reply she wasn’t interested in leadership. it runs to credlin’s narcissism and feeling she is a king/queen maker. so long as peeps like her carry some sway, the libs will be in some degree of turmoil. she’s a metaphorical bomb thrower.
Credlin is held in very high regard among parts of the branch membership. She was a poor staffer (any staffer who maintains their own position at the expense of their boss's is a poor staffer), and is now as you have described, grifting on the Fox News playbook. The Victorian Libs would be doing very well to ignore her completely.
- Nov 10, 2022
- 12,740
- 10,266
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
So nothing for ‘doing it tough’ Victorian families here?
Looks like the cost for pessutto to retain leadership was to drop anything remotely lefty
Looks like the cost for pessutto to retain leadership was to drop anything remotely lefty
Donakebab
Hall of Famer
Veteran
10k Posts
30k Posts
Essendon Player Sponsor 2022 - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Archie Perkins
Essendon Player Sponsor 2022 - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Archie Perkins
Essendon Player Sponsor 2021 - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Archie Perkins
Essendon Player Sponsor 2020 - Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti, Shaun McKernan
Essendon Player Sponsor 2019 - Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti, Shaun McKernan
lol bye John.
LNP to crumble yet again.
www.abc.net.au
LNP to crumble yet again.
Victorian Liberal leader defamed MP Moira Deeming, Federal Court rules
Ms Deeming brought the lawsuit against Mr Pesutto, alleging the Liberal Party leader had defamed her as a Nazi sympathiser in the wake of an anti-trans rights rally.
www.abc.net.au
Last edited:
- Aug 21, 2016
- 17,052
- 28,142
- AFL Club
- Geelong
- Other Teams
- Oldham
Extremely poor judgment by Pesutto. The incident would have quickly blown over but instead he gave it oxygen by attempting to kick Deeming out of the party and now it looks like he will have step down because he defamed her.
The rally did bring the party into disrepute.
The winner of the case is Jacinta Allan.
The winner of the case is Jacinta Allan.
hawkman
Hall of Famer
Unlikely it would have blown over quickly. He would have been whacked constantly by Labor if he allowed her to stay in the party. It ended up being a no win situation for him
the Qookers are circling ........ tic toc
[edit] sidenote - rita panahi and likeminded types within the media will go to town on this
[edit 2] be kind to friends and family within the trans community - today will be challenging for them
[edit] sidenote - rita panahi and likeminded types within the media will go to town on this
[edit 2] be kind to friends and family within the trans community - today will be challenging for them
Last edited:
