List Mgmt. Morning, Joe! (was The Daniher (Probably Mega-)thread)

[X AE A12]

Again, depends how it's handled really. Do we actually know who approached who first?

Not that it really matters though, because in any event you can 100% have that conversation up front without the angle being taken as we don't think you're worth it if we have to trade for you.

If you're a good communicator you can have an frank honest conversation about where the club lies & how we see a player fitting in to our plans.

I.e. In the event that we did approach Daniher the conversation could've been upfront from the very beginning. Picks 18 & 19 are part of another plan we want to implement at the club. If you still plan on leaving Essendon via the free agency mechanism, do you want to have a look at this offer to join the Lions? If all aspects of what may or may not transpire are covered along the way with discussions then you're not hanging someone out to dry.

Saad himself said as much the other week, he's been talking with Carlton about all possible results that may eventuate. We'd be doing the same i'm sure.

100% we don't owe him and there are 16 other options he can explore. We aren't the Joe Daniher football club

 

[M Malice]

A suggestion on SEN this morning-

Brisbane out/Essendon in> Alex Witherden, picks 18 & 19.

Essendon out/Brisbane in> pick 6.

Which would give us a shot at an elite mid prospect eg. Tanner Bruhn, Will Phillips / Elijah Hollands(unlikely/probably a top5 lock).

+ an agreement that the Bombers wouldn't match the offer for Daniher.
________________________________________________

I think we'd have to have something else come back our way.

 

[dlanod]

Again, depends how it's handled really. Do we actually know who approached who first?

I think it's safe to safe it was the club, because clubs initiate those conversations 90%+ of the time (often years in advance of the player becoming available - see any number of clubs getting in contact with new draftees heading out of state). It's unusual for the inverse to be true.

 

[Squizz89]

A suggestion on SEN this morning-

Brisbane out/Essendon in> Alex Witherden, picks 18 & 19.

Essendon out/Brisbane in> pick 6.

Which would give us a shot at an elite mid prospect eg. Tanner Bruhn, Will Phillips / Elijah Hollands(unlikely/probably a top5 lock).

+ an agreement that the Bombers wouldn't match the offer for Daniher.
________________________________________________

I think we'd have to have something else come back our way.

Not sure if you meant they would want more mate?

If not, I’d do that in a heartbeat. It’s effectively 18/19 and Witho for Daniher and 6.

That pick 6 then offers up more options in terms of bringing another top liner in, either via a trade or through the draft.

Bombers wouldn’t play that game though.

 

[M Malice]

Not sure if you meant they would want more mate?

If not, I’d do that in a heartbeat. It’s effectively 18/19 and Witho for Daniher and 6.

That pick 6 then offers up more options in terms of bringing another top liner in, either via a trade or through the draft.

Bombers wouldn’t play that game though.

Yep, something back our way, draft value index has Witherden valued as a late 3rd rounder in that trade if we get nothing else back but pick 6.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Not sure if you meant they would want more mate?

If not, I’d do that in a heartbeat. It’s effectively 18/19 and Witho for Daniher and 6.

That pick 6 then offers up more options in terms of bringing another top liner in, either via a trade or through the draft.

Bombers wouldn’t play that game though.

The only way Essendon could conceivably consider that is if they were getting band 1 for Daniher, which seems doubtful and, in which case, knowing Dodoro's form, Essendon would offer pick 7, not 6. But either way, can't see it happening.

 

[jackess]

A suggestion on SEN this morning-

Brisbane out/Essendon in> Alex Witherden, picks 18 & 19.

Essendon out/Brisbane in> pick 6.

Which would give us a shot at an elite mid prospect eg. Tanner Bruhn, Will Phillips / Elijah Hollands(unlikely/probably a top5 lock).

+ an agreement that the Bombers wouldn't match the offer for Daniher.
________________________________________________

I think we'd have to have something else come back our way.

I think we'd have to pay Joe enough to be band 1

 

[spotthedog1]

Yep, something back our way, draft value index has Witherden valued as a late 3rd rounder in that trade if we get nothing else back but pick 6.

Can't use draft value index in trades like that. It's only useful for academies/father-sons.

In recent years, every time a club has combined two picks to move further up the order, they pay a premium of draft points. Every single time. Either moving back in the draft order automatically makes you the "winner" of the trade, or (more likely) the index is simply skewed.

I'd imagine that the premium to move up would be even steeper this year, given that there'll be far fewer picks used. If a second rounder is considered a late pick in the draft, it doesn't hold as much trade value.

 

[davemc_lions]

I think we'd have to pay Joe enough to be band 1

problem there is do you want to pay top $ for someone who might sit out the next 5 years.
Then when we need $ for Clugga or Bailey etc have none.
Ask the Swans how Buddy going for them lately.

I say one of our firsts and a Player be what they after if not more then one player.
They prob want 2 firsts and 3 players.
From the Bombers point of view if we do a games based contact they might get 2nd or 3rd only.
We both have firsts then no picks to 38 or 41. Unless we make 18 and 19 into something

Essendon

6, 41, 61, 69, 70, 79

Brisbane

18, 19, 38, 64, 80, 90

 

[jackess]

problem there is do you want to pay top $ for someone who might sit out the next 5 years.
Then when we need $ for Clugga or Bailey etc have none.
Ask the Swans how Buddy going for them lately.

I say one of our firsts and a Player be what they after if not more then one player.
They prob want 2 firsts and 3 players.
From the Bombers point of view if we do a games based contact they might get 2nd or 3rd only.
We both have firsts then no picks to 38 or 41. Unless we make 18 and 19 into something

Essendon

6, 41, 61, 69, 70, 79

Brisbane

18, 19, 38, 64, 80, 90

We do off-load Witherdens salary. Of course its assuming that it wouldn't put at risk a younger guy being underpaid. But to give us a top 10 pick it could be worth it. Probably don't need to stock up on too many late first round draftees.

 

[davemc_lions]

going to be a weird draft this year..
if you look at our kids in last 2 years. 9 drafted.. 4 played. So yes pick 18/19 what would you get

2019 Deven Robertson (22), Brock Smith (33), Keidean Coleman (37), Jaxon Prior (59)
Dev got 1 game and Coleman looks good
2018 Ely Smith (21), Tom Berry (36), Tom Joyce (40), Connor McFadyen (42), Noah Answerth (55)
Answerth played games T Berry a couple and thats it

 

[chopperduck]

Playing at the top end of the ladder usually means you see a bit less of the young players. If we don't have a player trade lined up this season for our first 2 picks, I could see us trading the picks to get 1 higher and maybe 1 lower. Try aim for 1 top talent player and maybe Coleman mk2 with a later pick/points. With Joe and cockatoo rumoured to be coming that would still be 4 ins this year.

Of our recently drafted players, Dev showed a bit, as did Berry Jr and obviously Kiddy. Jury is out on Eli Smith, but Joyce was going pretty well at one stage before injury hit him, same with McFadyen iirc.

Brock Smith and Prior were 2 we really liked, only 1 year in the system which was a write off with covid. Still a lot of upside for a good number of those players. Brock sounded like a perfect fit for us in a few years down back. Keeping in mind Bichall, Rich and Lester will be leaving that backing group in the coming years, so I think players like Brock and Witho have chances coming.

 

[Flea_29]

A suggestion on SEN this morning-

Brisbane out/Essendon in> Alex Witherden, picks 18 & 19.

Essendon out/Brisbane in> pick 6.

Which would give us a shot at an elite mid prospect eg. Tanner Bruhn, Will Phillips / Elijah Hollands(unlikely/probably a top5 lock).

+ an agreement that the Bombers wouldn't match the offer for Daniher.
________________________________________________

I think we'd have to have something else come back our way.

Obviously this was from an Essendon Supporter.
With Ess not matching, they will also receive pick 20 (if band 2). So in total they will receive picks 18, 19 & 20 and Witherdon for pick 6/7. Not sure how that is fair for us.
I did say on the Essendon board (and I did get a number of positive comments) that the dons shouldn't match, get the 'free' pick (20) and then use that in a side deal.
ie Pick 20 and 2021 2nd for say Witho and Pick 18.
For Ess, instead of IN: Pick 20, Out Daniher its IN: Pick 18 and Witho and Out: Daniher & 2021 2nd
For Us, its IN: Daniher, Pick 20 and 2021 2nd and Out: Witho & Pick 18.
Having said that I'm still very keen for Alex Witherden to stay and fight for his place and become a 200 game player for our great club. However, our club leaders have a better understanding of our list than I do.

 

[chopperduck]

Screw Essendon... They had their chance last year and decided to force the player to stay. What they get this year they have to accept. Won't be doing trades to help them out.

 

[MacMum]

I still prefer Brown. Always have but heard Nick DalSanto talking in general about the upcoming games, trades etc...his opinion of Ben Brown was huge, said not only can he play but is also a first class citizen that every club should have. He trains hard and is a great leader at training and during a game...

Saw no reason that he couldn't regain his first 4yrs form. Very confident he would do well at another club.

 

[luthor]

Obviously this was from an Essendon Supporter.
With Ess not matching, they will also receive pick 20 (if band 2). So in total they will receive picks 18, 19 & 20 and Witherdon for pick 6/7. Not sure how that is fair for us.

I'm no expert with this stuff but I thought if Essendon doesn't match, they get whatever compo pick comes their way and that's it!

Only if they do match is where the possibility of the Lions trading comes in.

That being the case, there is no way they get both their Compo pick AND whatever we (hypothetically) are willing to trade.

There is another aspect that needs to be taken into consideration here

When discussing these trading scenarios, there is this tendency to treat players as commodities that don't have any say in where they they are being traded to. Has anyone even considered that Alex Witherden might NOT want to be traded to Essendon?. Contracted players have rights.

A couple of years ago, Port put Hamish Hartlett up for trade but he refused to play ball so they had to abort that idea.

Now he's a permanent fixture in their side and a realistic chance of becoming a Premiership player.

Now even if Witho is up for a trade, is he even a good fit for the Bombers? He's nothing at all like Saad and where exactly would he fit with the Bombers?

He might well think he's got a better chance of success here with the Lions than go the way of some other Lions to Essendon trades.

Cupido, Luenberger, Green, Cutler.............all former cast offs to the Bombers.....and none of them even going close to performing at the level

 

[briztoon]

Crazy Dodoro is using such a high opening gambit to anchor discussions and the media to his viewpoint. He says only Band 1 is enough otherwise we want 2 firsts and Witho. Suddenly the media narrative is on how Daniher is not worth 2 firsts and a player. Maybe Lions should give one first and a player. That dominates the media landscape and adds pressure on us to meet the Bombers demands. Hopefully our negotiators stick fat and come up with creative solutions like we did with the Beams to Neale trade. I think the late firsts in this year hold more value than in previous years. This year has been compromised making it harder to get as good a read on the draftees compared to previous. There will be high potential players available at the tail end of the first who may have bolted up the boards if they had enough opportunity or exposure. There will be plenty of sliders. We might be able to pick up sn unrecognised talent late first round.

Sorry, but no they don’t.

Those firsts will push out to the early 20’s, even if both us and Port go out this weekend.

None of the Vic kids have played, so we don’t have a true handle on the strength and depth of this draft.

And next years draft is/was considered significantly stronger and deeper, with far, far few club tied kids at the top end.

If we brought next years nga rules in to this years draft, then Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Lachlan Jones and Reef McInness would be available to all clubs, which would make this years first round stronger and deeper.

 

[3KZ is Football]

I'm no expert with this stuff but I thought if Essendon doesn't match, they get whatever compo pick comes their way and that's it!

Only if they do match is where the possibility of the Lions trading comes in.

That being the case, there is no way they get both their Compo pick AND whatever we (hypothetically) are willing to trade.

There is another aspect that needs to be taken into consideration here

When discussing these trading scenarios, there is this tendency to treat players as commodities that don't have any say in where they they are being traded to. Has anyone even considered that Alex Witherden might NOT want to be traded to Essendon?. Contracted players have rights.

A couple of years ago, Port put Hamish Hartlett up for trade but he refused to play ball so they had to abort that idea.

Now he's a permanent fixture in their side and a realistic chance of becoming a Premiership player.

Now even if Witho is up for a trade, is he even a good fit for the Bombers? He's nothing at all like Saad and where exactly would he fit with the Bombers?

He might well think he's got a better chance of success here with the Lions than go the way of some other Lions to Essendon trades.

Cupido, Luenberger, Green, Cutler.............all former cast offs to the Bombers.....and none of them even going close to performing at the level

Doc Wheildon (Pick 15 - 1995 Draft)

 

[bungalow_bill]

The Bombers are in an eerily similar situation to us and the go home 5 year, Fantasia, Daniher and Saad wanting out because of cultural issues, although the wantaway 3 are more entrenched as 1st 22 players the Bombers will largely have to suck it up and take what they are offered IMO, take the bitter pill for the long term benefit of their club.

FWIW if Dodumbo is stubborn and decides to force a trade IMO we will do a deal, with Daniher coming out and nominating us we would have given him some sort of commitment to get him to the club. I can't see us telling Joe/his manager in negotiations- We'd love you at our club but if we have to trade for you it's not worth it.

No mention of Francis as yet but didn't he also want out a couple of years back? To a SA club IIRC

 

[Johnny Bananas]

With Ess not matching, they will also receive pick 20 (if band 2). So in total they will receive picks 18, 19 & 20 and Witherdon for pick 6/7. Not sure how that is fair for us.

No, you're missing something. They'd receive 18, 19, 20 and Witherden for pick 6-7 plus Joe Daniher. Since you'd need to trade all those picks and possibly more to get up to pick 6-7, it values Witherden at least as much as Daniher. If Witherden even wants to leave, of course. No guarantee that he does. I don't see Essendon doing it, simply because a top 10 pick is worth more than 3 picks that will end up in the mid-20s.

 

[Milux]

A suggestion on SEN this morning-

Brisbane out/Essendon in> Alex Witherden, picks 18 & 19.

Essendon out/Brisbane in> pick 6.

Which would give us a shot at an elite mid prospect eg. Tanner Bruhn, Will Phillips / Elijah Hollands(unlikely/probably a top5 lock).

+ an agreement that the Bombers wouldn't match the offer for Daniher.
________________________________________________

I think we'd have to have something else come back our way.

Id take that.

 

[chopperduck]

In that 'trade' we are giving Witho and 2 picks for pick 6. He'll no, Daniher doesn't come into it, he is a FA. If they wanna do 18 and 19 for pick 6 separately, that is another story.

They rolled the dice keeping him last year, it is come up snake eyes. They don't get to dictate price this year.

 

[Squizz89]

Essendon and Brisbane have met over Joe Daniher’s move to the Lions and it didn't go smoothly, reports @Sammy__Edmund | sen.lu/3nRtYq3 | #AFL

Edit: link to the article - https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/10...ns-far-from-smooth-between-bombers-and-lions/

 

[Brett C]

In that 'trade' we are giving Witho and 2 picks for pick 6. He'll no, Daniher doesn't come into it, he is a FA. If they wanna do 18 and 19 for pick 6 separately, that is another story.

They rolled the dice keeping him last year, it is come up snake eyes. They don't get to dictate price this year.

I agree that would be well and truly overs for Daniher but he's a restricted free agent which does put a different lens on the who situation.

Will need to be some give by us unless we are confident our offer will trigger band 1 compo as Essendon can match and then force a trade or Daniher stays at the bombers.

Will trust the brains trust to work through it all and ultimately we will probably give up more than we want while the Bombers will get less than they want.

 

[Tom14]

Essendon and Brisbane have met over Joe Daniher’s move to the Lions and it didn't go smoothly, reports @Sammy__Edmund | sen.lu/3nRtYq3 | #AFL

Edit: link to the article - https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/10...ns-far-from-smooth-between-bombers-and-lions/

I'm guessing they've demanded either McCLuggage and pick 18 or 2 of Starce, Bailey and Rayner!