Shanahan probably but I’d seriously doubt Armstrong ,too similar to Treacy and amiss
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Prediction National Draft 2024
- Thread starter King Huskii
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Saints would probably take him if he's there, they just lost Battle.
King Huskii
Norm Smith Medallist
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I wonder who we would move up for and what picks would it take? It's a risk with such a deep draft as the player yoi m9ve up for may not be any better than who you would take at your original pick
- Apr 26, 2011
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Not really a fan of trading up
Play your hand, don't weaken it.
We were played by Richmond & Melbourne.
4 first picks and 2 seconds.
Don't need to trade up.
Play your hand, don't weaken it.
We were played by Richmond & Melbourne.
4 first picks and 2 seconds.
Don't need to trade up.
Our draft night trades to date:
2018:
34, 41 > 30, 57 (Valente - pick 30) - trade with WB
2020:
27, 59 > 30, F3 (NOD - pick 27) - trade with Collingwood
2023:
46,60,63 > 38 - trade with Gold Coast
38, F3 > 35 (Simpson) - trade with Richmond
We have paid third rounds picks (either current or future) to move a few spots in the second round (ie 34>30, 30>27 and 38>35).
Considering the picks 27 and 28 are going to be used to bid match, after the first four matched bids, could we for example do the following:
32 (Freo), F3 (Freo) > 29 (WB)
That jumps ahead of WC and is the second pick of the 2nd round.
2018:
34, 41 > 30, 57 (Valente - pick 30) - trade with WB
2020:
27, 59 > 30, F3 (NOD - pick 27) - trade with Collingwood
2023:
46,60,63 > 38 - trade with Gold Coast
38, F3 > 35 (Simpson) - trade with Richmond
We have paid third rounds picks (either current or future) to move a few spots in the second round (ie 34>30, 30>27 and 38>35).
Considering the picks 27 and 28 are going to be used to bid match, after the first four matched bids, could we for example do the following:
32 (Freo), F3 (Freo) > 29 (WB)
That jumps ahead of WC and is the second pick of the 2nd round.
Taylor
Community Leader
- Moderator
- #56
Just as a bit of trivia, our pick #30 currently is valued at 629 points. Next year it's 454 points, equal to pick #38/#39-ish.
So trading it to a club like Brisbane this year makes it worth pick #23/#24-ish to them in points saved next year.
Similarly, but in reverse, the two future 3rd round picks we hold #37 (Richmond) and #45 (Fremantle) are worth 297 and 150 points respectively - making them the same as pick #49 and #60 this year.
So trading it to a club like Brisbane this year makes it worth pick #23/#24-ish to them in points saved next year.
Similarly, but in reverse, the two future 3rd round picks we hold #37 (Richmond) and #45 (Fremantle) are worth 297 and 150 points respectively - making them the same as pick #49 and #60 this year.
Good clarification on the points value.
Not all clubs are looking for points. Richmond did a lot of draft night trading last year and accumulated a bunch of third and fourth round picks. Whilst less valuable next year they traded a heap of them for GCS pick 20. It could otherwise just be to improve next years draft hand. I doubt we’ll see too many fourth round picks used to upgrade but 3rd round picks still hold some value for a small upgrade.
Personally I can’t see us getting higher in the second round. The depth and value around 25-35 is good. I pointed out that there might be some chance we could trade with WB. There is some chance we could trade with Essendon if Kako bid drops a little. They wouldn’t lose too many points dropping to our pick 32/33 and get a bonus F3 for their trouble.
Otherwise I feel it is more likely we trade up in the third round to grab someone we like who is still available at say pick 48 for example.
Anyone done the maths as to where pick 67 will actually end up after bids etc. I can't be bothered as tbh I think they'll be a few live trades across both nights that'd make my calculation irrelevant anyway.
Do think that pick is well into the 50s though. Possibly even the low 50s.
I had a half hearted crack and it didn’t fall as much as expected. I thought it would drop before draft night, but due to list spots and club draft picks it hasn’t. Although a small number of clubs may use a pick before 67 to upgrade a rookie or pass.
I went with decently early bids in the top 22 and had it around 58/59. There are a number of additional Academy players I wasn’t aware of around late second / third round and Camporeale. I’d say a conservative estimate would be between 54-59.
The name most often mentioned is Joe Berry - small forward
- Mar 29, 2019
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Interesting, heard some good stuff about him, heard he might go a little earlier than our pick though? Maybe I'm wrong.
Chris25
Moderator
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Based on who we’ve been ‘linked to’ in the media, it does seem we’ll be looking to hit certain needs. So I reckon we’ve got probably 3 scenarios…
The caveat is that I have no idea what we’ll do with Jaren Carr.
First round - Joe Berry
First round - Xavier Lindsay/Tobie Travaglia
First round - Taj Hotton/Murphy Reid
The caveat is that I have no idea what we’ll do with Jaren Carr.
First round - Joe Berry
- Angus Clarke comes right into the mix with our second pick as a half back. If not him, then we potentially go KPF with Kayle Gerreyn or Charlie Nicholls
- if we hit on Berry and Clarke, then Jaren Carr comes into the mix. If we don’t get Clarke, then maybe Riley Bice or another half back
First round - Xavier Lindsay/Tobie Travaglia
- small forward becomes the priority, but as I’ve said all year we probably look for value later instead in maybe Sam Toner. Personally, I still want Jacob Newton
- we’ve very likely traded up if we get one of these guys, so our second pick will be late. Potentially helps Carr as other options could be gone
- probably don’t double up with Clarke
First round - Taj Hotton/Murphy Reid
- the best available option which doesn’t necessarily hit need.
- Clarke comes into the mix again with our second, and we probably look at a genuine small forward late again like before
- maybe Carr if we get Clarke, a developing tall seems unlikelier
What time do we start melting?
I'm getting no melting vibes from this draft where we play it safe and don't trade.
- Nov 29, 2011
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well that earlier post by someone (thanking you) showing how our history of trading up has cost a lot (except when teams were collecting later picks for bids) but hardly unearthed any diamonds, when compared to Wallsy's usually very successful later picks. When you look at the history, it doesn't really make a lot of sense for us. As a poor example, we could potentially get a Valente but lose a Cox? Prefer to let Walls do what he does best.
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Snuffaluphagus
Brownlow Medallist
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Seems like we can rule out Lindsay and its really between Hotton and Berry for us
- Nov 7, 2018
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Hotton would be a very gutsy pick.
The Emporer
Draftee
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1: Taj Hotton
2: Oliver Hannaford
3: leave it for Wallsy to pick one out of the hat
2: Oliver Hannaford
3: leave it for Wallsy to pick one out of the hat
The Emporer
Draftee
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yes but going on an interview i read , he is one with the right attitude to succeed, its why im hoping we get him
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Which would be great. But I don't mind a bit of left field. If we don't see Berry as significantly better than small forwards likely to be available at our second I won't mind if we add Hynes with our first and Alger/Dattoli/Hannaford/Clarke/Davis with our second I'm fine with that. An aggressive, big bodied forward/midfielder would be nice in the arsenal.
I am so excited about Berry. Exactly what we need.
If we had pick 10 I would be happy with him.
If we had pick 10 I would be happy with him.
