Prediction National Draft 2024

[Lach72]

Just a few general thoughts…

I get what Sydney were thinking. There was a bit of talk that they were into Faull, so I reckon they’d have picked him. But heading into the draft, I was expecting a run on talls between 30 and 40. The thinking being that someone like Gerreyn, Nicholls, O’Farrell, Mraz or Sims isn’t that far behind the top group - so get a decent small first, then pick up a tall you like in the second/third round. Guys like West and Stumpf could come into the second round mix too. So good chance teams like Port and Sydney both thought to take the risk and hit that tonight.

I won’t give GWS the same benefit though. They just give off the vibe that they think they’re smarter than everyone. I like Oliver, but Angove was clearly planned so why take Hannaford too.

I’m not sure how I view Richmond’s haul. In isolation, I like each pick - but as a whole, it leaves me wanting. I think it was a high risk draft and I don’t really rate their player development. But they clearly won the horrible North trade.

Second round thoughts? My top two for us would be Shanahan and Clarke. It’s unlikely Shanahan gets much further I’d have thought, and Clarke has likely suitors in the Bulldogs and Port. So we’ll see. If they’re both gone? I do really like Davis, but I could see us pulling the trigger on Toner given the obvious interest in Berry.

Hotton and Trainor would have me very nervous.

An ACL and concussion…not for me

Could've taken say Berry and Whitlock and had no issues

 

[Swiggy]

Now that we have selected Reid, we can trade Brayshaw to Melbourne for Pickett and Rivers…

Can't trade free agents

 

[Superkoops]

This year giving up a strong draft hand for Shai Bolton feels like a real sliding doors moment for the club given the strength of the draft. Berry , Bo etc going just before our pick

Pick 18 (21) is in and around a similar range to 34. There is potential to upgrade that pick 34 or otherwise take a similar approach and sit and wait for a slider. I think the two talls (Shanahan, Whitlock) will go before our pick and also a few clubs looking closely at the top ruck also before our pick.

I think sliding doors moment is over cooked. If we sold out of the draft completely sure. We kept first round pick and a decent second round pick. We also effectively replaced Schultz with an upgrade and the added cost was essentially the draft pick acquired for Griffin Logue.

 

[Taylor]

Can't trade free agents

You have to match the offer first, but given Brayshaw will be contracted until about 2031 in a month's time - we would get more than just Pickett from Melbourne for him.

 

[Swiggy]

You have to match the offer first, but given Brayshaw will be contracted until about 2031 in a month's time - we would get more than just Pickett from Melbourne for him.

Yeh was joking- no way he leaves

 

[JammoMonty]

Now that we have selected Reid, we can trade Brayshaw to Melbourne for Pickett and Rivers…

Brayshaw isn’t going anywhere and Reid will be living with Andy until Freo find him a permanent home. Pickett had one last catch up with Freo while in WA for the GWABA football carnival down south. I’d say he will be traded into Freo next year.

 

[Wee Jessies]

Just a few general thoughts…

I get what Sydney were thinking. There was a bit of talk that they were into Faull, so I reckon they’d have picked him. But heading into the draft, I was expecting a run on talls between 30 and 40. The thinking being that someone like Gerreyn, Nicholls, O’Farrell, Mraz or Sims isn’t that far behind the top group - so get a decent small first, then pick up a tall you like in the second/third round. Guys like West and Stumpf could come into the second round mix too. So good chance teams like Port and Sydney both thought to take the risk and hit that tonight.

I won’t give GWS the same benefit though. They just give off the vibe that they think they’re smarter than everyone. I like Oliver, but Angove was clearly planned so why take Hannaford too.

I’m not sure how I view Richmond’s haul. In isolation, I like each pick - but as a whole, it leaves me wanting. I think it was a high risk draft and I don’t really rate their player development. But they clearly won the horrible North trade.

Second round thoughts? My top two for us would be Shanahan and Clarke. It’s unlikely Shanahan gets much further I’d have thought, and Clarke has likely suitors in the Bulldogs and Port. So we’ll see. If they’re both gone? I do really like Davis, but I could see us pulling the trigger on Toner given the obvious interest in Berry.

We are going to come into a period where drafts will be extremely compromised. Even though it looks like we have talls sorted we are probably drafting now for five years time. I wouldn’t be opposed to trading F2 to go up and grab Shanahan or Whitlock. Jackson is no certainty as a fwd and might be better as an onballer.

 

[purplerunsdeep2]

I'd be keen to get Pickett and Rivers,

Let WCE pay overs for the Chad


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[worsemim]

This year giving up a strong draft hand for Shai Bolton feels like a real sliding doors moment for the club given the strength of the draft. Berry , Bo etc going just before our pick

First up: I think we'll be fine because we've done really, really well in list management across the last ~6 years, even including the loss of players like Lobb, Acres, Logue, Henry. We've got a very strong list for the next 5 years (at least), and this draft really shouldn't be particularly relevant; we had to take a first rounder to satisfy the 2 per 5 year rule, even Berry wouldn't have realistically been b23 within the next 3 years.

Alright, with that said: yeah, a bit of a **** up. Still had to get Shai—still had to pay up for Shai, and frankly you're never getting a superstar with a monster contract for much less than we got him. It is a bit of a vintage Freo list management move, but in context it's acceptable.

Getting a Victorian inside mid without a realistic avenue to b23 within 3-5 years is another matter. Even if he's really good, his trajectory of improvement is not going to surpass Johnno or Erasmus for years; 3+ year players are just better than new recruits. We don't have the list age to pick up slack for inexperienced recruits. Short of a catastrophic injury crisis, I don't see Reid getting game time until (in 3+ years time) his trajectory and higher ceiling bypasses the experience of Johnno + Ras (who might be better anyway; hard to evaluate at this point). I believe this is true even if you don't rate either of those players; a just-AFL-average player who has been in the system 3 years is almost always better than a brand new really good player. (There are rare exceptions and they're almost all generational talents or F/S kids who have been in a pro environment pre-draft.) This is compounded by the fact that Reid is noted as not a great defensive mid, while our center bounce team needs a defensive mid who would complement Sebba and Young. That's why Fyfe played the role he did in 2024. That's why you see Johnno grinding his defensive contested game. My most optimistic take on Murphy Reid is that we get a good return when he asks for a trade like we did for Cerra. It is hard to retain Vic Metro players even when you give them full-time b23 inside minutes.

I don't think our list management has ever experienced "having a well-rounded young list" before and they list manage like it. We're still in the "best available" mindset, and we shouldn't be: when we saw that best available was a Vic Metro inside mid, we should have traded the pick down and tried to pick up Hannaford or someone else who had a quicker succession plan into the side. We should have had feelers out in advance. As I said at the top, we'll be fine because we're in a great spot.

 

[JammoMonty]

First up: I think we'll be fine because we've done really, really well in list management across the last ~6 years, even including the loss of players like Lobb, Acres, Logue, Henry. We've got a very strong list for the next 5 years (at least), and this draft really shouldn't be particularly relevant; we had to take a first rounder to satisfy the 2 per 5 year rule, even Berry wouldn't have realistically been b23 within the next 3 years.

Alright, with that said: yeah, a bit of a **** up. Still had to get Shai—still had to pay up for Shai, and frankly you're never getting a superstar with a monster contract for much less than we got him. It is a bit of a vintage Freo list management move, but in context it's acceptable.

Getting a Victorian inside mid without a realistic avenue to b23 within 3-5 years is another matter. Even if he's really good, his trajectory of improvement is not going to surpass Johnno or Erasmus for years; 3+ year players are just better than new recruits. We don't have the list age to pick up slack for inexperienced recruits. Short of a catastrophic injury crisis, I don't see Reid getting game time until (in 3+ years time) his trajectory and higher ceiling bypasses the experience of Johnno + Ras (who might be better anyway; hard to evaluate at this point). I believe this is true even if you don't rate either of those players; a just-AFL-average player who has been in the system 3 years is almost always better than a brand new really good player. (There are rare exceptions and they're almost all generational talents or F/S kids who have been in a pro environment pre-draft.) This is compounded by the fact that Reid is noted as not a great defensive mid, while our center bounce team needs a defensive mid who would complement Sebba and Young. That's why Fyfe played the role he did in 2024. That's why you see Johnno grinding his defensive contested game. My most optimistic take on Murphy Reid is that we get a good return when he asks for a trade like we did for Cerra. It is hard to retain Vic Metro players even when you give them full-time b23 inside minutes.

I don't think our list management has ever experienced "having a well-rounded young list" before and they list manage like it. We're still in the "best available" mindset, and we shouldn't be: when we saw that best available was a Vic Metro inside mid, we should have traded the pick down and tried to pick up Hannaford or someone else who had a quicker succession plan into the side. We should have had feelers out in advance. As I said at the top, we'll be fine because we're in a great spot.

Logue was not a loss. He was a

 

[wild side]

Logue was pick 8 wasn't he? That was a failure, was Walls the Boss then?

 

[freo1]

This year giving up a strong draft hand for Shai Bolton feels like a real sliding doors moment for the club given the strength of the draft. Berry , Bo etc going just before our pick

I really dont think it mattered who we selected this year. We're not in the phase where we'd give games to any draftee, unless they're a superstar number 1 type pick up.

Even if we selected Bo Allen or Berry, they would be in the same position of not getting a game (at least consistently). These kids may pinch a game here or there in the case of injury, but they're not going to fill needs in the short term. Drafting kids, particularly for us and where we're at with our build, is purely about the future, and for that it's not the end of the world to miss on a small forward given we just brough in Bolton.

Getting best talent and personalities into the club will do more for the culture at this stage.

Although unlikely, hopefully we can snag Champion.

If Reid goes home in a few years, hopefully we get something good back for him, but this will only happen if he's played some senior footy to expose himself. I can't see him playing more that 1 or 2 games (if he's lucky) in 2025. He may get more in 2026 if things go his way, then 2027 will take care of itself. Really though, in the short term he needs to work his backside off at Peel, develop himself and prove he's as good as some people are saying. No easy games at our club at present. He would know this more than us though. Any disappointment he may have would likely be because he knows a senior debut won't be gifted any time soon like it may have been at Richmond.

 

[Hamann188]

Logue was pick 8 wasn't he? That was a failure, was Walls the Boss then?

I though Griff was a Ross & Rosich special.

 

[freo1]

Logue was not a loss. He was a

Bit harsh - I thought Logue was great when his body gave him a solid run at things. He gave us good versatility. I agree he would likely struggle for a game at times but he's no potato. He was also great for our culture at the club, which is often underrated. Thankfully the club has openly stated in recent times that culture is a big ticket item now and they only want to bring in top characters - talent wont override character as it did so often in the past.

 

[freo_leo29]

Murphy Reid would've been about 10 places higher than the next pick on our board

And the next one would've been Shanahan who had the same problem of no path into the team


It's just the way it falls sometimes, everyone knew there was that top 16 or so, we had to have a little bit of luck for one to drop through. We also tried to trade up for one of those top 16 that suited our needs more.

 

[wild side]

That might be right, but he was no way Pick 8.
He was a rower

 

[freo_leo29]

Bit harsh - I thought Logue was great when his body gave him a solid run at things. He gave us good versatility. I agree he would likely struggle for a game at times but he's no potato. He was also great for our culture at the club, which is often underrated. Thankfully the club has openly stated in recent times that culture is a big ticket item now and they only want to bring in top characters - talent wont override character as it did so often in the past.

Griff banged Jammos misso at some point

 

[fnerd]

FFS , I swear all these people whining that Reid’s an inside mid have not watched one bit of footage of him - moreover because it suits their narrative that we ****ed up and didn’t get their boy Berry.

Reid is a mid -fwd every day of the week and not just in name but in ACTUAL output , the kid was kicking snags this year for fun in some games such was his impact.

Football nous,insane ground ball game and creativity- the ability to create time and space and for himself or teammates are his strengths(aka Dylan Moore

13

Dylan Moore

Age

25

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

/gryan miers

32

Gryan Miers

Age

25

Ht

179cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.4

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

15.3

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.6

3star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

6.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.2

4star

/sheezel) on what planet is that not a major need for our fwd line?

But yeah I get it he’s not labeled a small fwd so apparently we’ve lost

 

[E Shed]

Logue's athletic upside was the sort of thing worth punting on. He is a monster athlete.

I still think his best as a defender when he was fit & settled was pretty elite. Capable of going with the Curnows & Camerons of the league is no mean feat.

Just a shame his footy IQ isn't a little higher and he didn't fit with what was our most balanced back 6.

Is that pick 8 material? Maybe not but it was worth the gamble IMO. I can't be bothered looking up what we left on the board that year but I don't remember it as a particularly strong draft. I could be wrong.

 

[Hamann188]

FFS , I swear all these people whining that Reid’s an inside mid have not watched one bit of footage of him - moreover because it suits their narrative that we ****ed up and didn’t get their boy Berry.

Reid is a mid -fwd every day of the week and not just in name but in ACTUAL output , the kid was kicking snags this year for fun , such was his impact.

Football nous,insane ground ball game and creativity- the ability to create time and space and for himself or teammates are his strengths(aka Dylan Moore/gryan miers/sheezel) on what planet is that not a major need for our fwd line?

But yeah I get it he’s not labeled a small fwd so apparently we’ve lost

Yeah I'm leaning in that direction too man.

Seems like Wallsy had an eye on a more versatile player (as J Lo likes them to be) rather than an out & out small fwd.

I'll admit I was a bit stunned when the pick came through but I've settled now.

Just a lot of PTSD with Vic Metro kids. I know I know, it was one time and they aren't all mummy's boys, but it is still a little bit of a gamble.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

FFS , I swear all these people whining that Reid’s an inside mid have not watched one bit of footage of him - moreover because it suits their narrative that we ****ed up and didn’t get their boy Berry.

Reid is a mid -fwd every day of the week and not just in name but in ACTUAL output , the kid was kicking snags this year for fun in some games such was his impact.

Football nous,insane ground ball game and creativity- the ability to create time and space and for himself or teammates are his strengths(aka Dylan Moore/gryan miers/sheezel) on what planet is that not a major need for our fwd line?

But yeah I get it he’s not labeled a small fwd so apparently we’ve lost

Yeah, picture prime Sidebum playing off the forward flank for Pies and thats Reid

 

[Joao]

Saints crying out for mids and took 2 defenders with 2 defender academy players to come. Their board wasn't happy.

Having said that, looking forward to the GWS V Saints games next year. 20 defenders vs 20 forwards.

 

[Lach72]

Saints crying out for mids and took 2 defenders with 2 defender academy players to come. Their board wasn't happy.

Having said that, looking forward to the GWS V Saints games next year. 20 defenders vs 20 forwards.

GWS have a cranking midfield.

Goalkickers are gold

 

[fnerd]

Yeah I'm leaning in that direction too man.

Seems like Wallsy had an eye on a more versatile player (as J Lo likes them to be) rather than an out & out small fwd.

I'll admit I was a bit stunned when the pick came through but I've settled now.

Just a lot of PTSD with Vic Metro kids. I know I know, it was one time and they aren't all mummy's boys, but it is still a little bit of a gamble.

Yea I fully get the line of thinking and it still crosses my mind but our club and culture are in a different place now - a very good place

As others alluded to under Caleb and Andy (I’ll add youngy to this too) players buy in. Straight up, especially the younger cohort.

And a big factor in that is they’re all vic boys themselves- easy for a vic boy to relate when the people selling you the idea once came from the same position you find yourself in .

Note- when asked who he was most looking fwd to meeting at freo Reid said Andy and I’d assume a big part of that is brayshaw is a former Sandringham boy himself.

In all likelihood Andy will probably be his mentor in the early years, honestly you couldn’t get a better player or person to learn off than that .

And finally on an early gettable episode where Reid was being interviewed he mention he’s mates with Ollie Murphy and caught up with him over here during the champs and basically picked his brains on his move over to freo so it shows the kid was certainly open to the possibility of playing outside vic

 

[TheMcManusNose]

I think Reid was clearly the best pick at this point by a country mile.

I'm still a bit annoyed that the club seems not to prioritise small forward because I think that's the key point our list fails and they are important in finals.

But that's more on the trade and not keeping pick 10 or 11 rather than the drafting of Reid.