List Mgmt. National & Rookie Draft 2021

[Lore]

Hey guys, thought you might like to have this resource on your board (scuse the intrusion!) – mods might like to sticky it so it's visible at the top of the thread

 

[bird_man]

He was supposed to have blanketed Darcy in a game and went from a pick between 15 and 25 into a top 10. Tall players taken high in the draft have a much much higher bust rate than mids. We don't really have the luxury of being speculative, especially based on using our first pick on Allison last year and having the potential loss of the next 2 years worth of first round picks.

You keep saying they are a high chance of being busts but how many first round busts have been key defenders of late?

Looking back over the last 7 or 8 years they actually look like one of the safer positions you can take.

 

[Ads734]

He was supposed to have blanketed Darcy in a game and went from a pick between 15 and 25 into a top 10. Tall players taken high in the draft have a much much higher bust rate than mids. We don't really have the luxury of being speculative, especially based on using our first pick on Allison last year and having the potential loss of the next 2 years worth of first round picks.

Look I’m just looking through the last decade of drafts and come up with a list of busts vs success of KPD in the first round. Note this doesn’t apply to general 190/192m defenders
Successes
2011
1/1 of picked
Nick Haynes pick 8

no failures in 2011

2012
Aiden Corr niether success or failure pick 14

2013
Jack Leslie
Failure

2014 Caleb Marchbank Pick 6 - quite comparable to Gibcus if you ask me.
injury plagued but juries out.

darcy Moore - recruited as a forward but turned back - success

Jake Lever - success pick 14

Sam Durdin - failure

Hugh Goddard - failure

to not Harris Andrews went pick 61 that year.

2015

Weitering - Success

2016
Griffen Logue pass

2017
naughton
Success in a different way
Brander - juries out

2018 N/A

2019
Mccasey to early

dekoning -too early

2020 too early.
Anyways what I learnt from this is it is possible to get a gun defender in the first round although they really have to be elite not just someone who could be elite. Not sure if that’s clear. It’s not like the midfield where bolsters exist. Regardless if we think Gibcus can be a top 10/5 defender then I’m not opposed.

 

[bird_man]

Look I’m just looking through the last decade of drafts and come up with a list of busts vs success of KPD in the first round. Note this doesn’t apply to general 190/192m defenders
Successes
2011
1/1 of picked
Nick Haynes pick 8

no failures in 2011

2012
Aiden Corr niether success or failure pick 14

2013
Jack Leslie
Failure

2014 Caleb Marchbank Pick 6 - quite comparable to Gibcus if you ask me.
injury plagued but juries out.

darcy Moore - recruited as a forward but turned back - success

Jake Lever - success pick 14

Sam Durdin - failure

Hugh Goddard - failure

to not Harris Andrews went pick 61 that year.

2015

Weitering - Success

2016
Griffen Logue pass

2017
naughton
Success in a different way
Brander - juries out

2018 N/A

2019
Mccasey to early

dekoning -too early

2020 too early.
Anyways what I learnt from this is it is possible to get a gun defender in the first round although they really have to be elite not just someone who could be elite. Not sure if that’s clear. It’s not like the midfield where bolsters exist. Regardless if we think Gibcus can be a top 10/5 defender then I’m not opposed.

Out of the failure you have in that group not one of them were taking in the top 15 of the draft.

All 3 between 16 and 21. Leslie and Goddard were both the last selection of the first round.

Not one bust taken in the top 15 of the draft.

 

[Ads734]

Out of the failure you have in that group not one of them were taking in the top 15 of the draft.

All 3 between 16 and 21. Leslie and Goddard were both the last selection of the first round.

Not one bust taken in the top 15 of the draft.

Correct. And I agree it’s almost like a two tiered approach it’s like speculative defenders don’t usually make unless later in the draft but in the first rd they basically have to be top 10 or so.

 

[sunny3193]

Unconfirmed reports of panic in the GC war room this morning.
Apparently the autocalc function on the Salary Cap spreadsheet was set to “off”.

 

[CursingFijian]

Unconfirmed reports of panic in the GC war room this morning.
Apparently the autocalc function on the Salary Cap spreadsheet was set to “off”.

You’re triggering my PTSD. Gonna spend all morning refreshing spreadsheets now just in case.

 

[L_W_P]

My issue with Gibcus is that he's not the style of defender we need.

Doogs is not a dour, lockdown FB. His best work is timing his run to come over the top with a massive spoil, then linking up the field with a 60m bomb inside 50. He's a perfect CHB for the modern game.

Wilkie is best suited to be a Dylan Grimes

2

Dylan Grimes

Age

33

Ht

194cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.6

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

5.3

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

4star

MG

136.0

2star

D

12.2

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

4.8

3star

M

4.7

4star

T

1.4

2star

MG

136.0

2star

D

9.4

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

type. He's a tall that plays on the 2nd small or mid size forward because he can match them, athletically.

What I think we lack is that lockdown tall defender. The type of guy who can sit on the deepest tall forward and just blanket their scoring. Create that nil all draw that allows Howard, Highmore and Coffield to intercept the high ball.

We need the Astbury to our Rance/Balta. The Barass to our McGovern. The Gardiner to our Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

27

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

.

That's not Gibcus IMO.

 

[bird_man]

My issue with Gibcus is that he's not the style of defender we need.

Doogs is not a dour, lockdown FB. His best work is timing his run to come over the top with a massive spoil, then linking up the field with a 60m bomb inside 50. He's a perfect CHB for the modern game.

Wilkie is best suited to be a Dylan Grimes type. He's a tall that plays on the 2nd small or mid size forward because he can match them, athletically.

What I think we lack is that lockdown tall defender. The type of guy who can sit on the deepest tall forward and just blanket their scoring. Create that nil all draw that allows Howard, Highmore and Coffield to intercept the high ball.

We need the Astbury to our Rance/Balta. The Barass to our McGovern. The Gardiner to our Harris Andrews.

That's not Gibcus IMO.

Gibcus is a very good defender.

He has terrific closing speed and ability to spoil.

He's already 196cm and nearly 90kg.

Yes he's also a terrific intercept mark but there has never been an issue with his ability to defend.

You don't have to be a dour gorilla to defend your opponent.

Barrass is definitely not that. He has both the ability to defend his opponent and take an intercept mark.

He rates above average for both intercept marks and spoils.

Richmond also had Grimes to go with Rance and Balta.

That's exactly what you want from your key defenders these days.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Look I’m just looking through the last decade of drafts and come up with a list of busts vs success of KPD in the first round. Note this doesn’t apply to general 190/192m defenders
Successes
2011
1/1 of picked
Nick Haynes pick 8

no failures in 2011

2012
Aiden Corr niether success or failure pick 14

2013
Jack Leslie
Failure

2014 Caleb Marchbank Pick 6 - quite comparable to Gibcus if you ask me.
injury plagued but juries out.

darcy Moore - recruited as a forward but turned back - success

Jake Lever - success pick 14

Sam Durdin - failure

Hugh Goddard - failure

to not Harris Andrews went pick 61 that year.

2015

Weitering - Success

2016
Griffen Logue pass

2017
naughton
Success in a different way
Brander - juries out

2018 N/A

2019
Mccasey to early

dekoning -too early

2020 too early.
Anyways what I learnt from this is it is possible to get a gun defender in the first round although they really have to be elite not just someone who could be elite. Not sure if that’s clear. It’s not like the midfield where bolsters exist. Regardless if we think Gibcus can be a top 10/5 defender then I’m not opposed.

So successful players , playing as defenders from the last 4 drafts = zero and jury still out on one taken in the 2014 draft.
Does that mean that if we take a tall defender we might find out if he's better than Clavarino by 2025?
( Clavarino was rated as one of the better defenders in 2017 and actually slid a fair way to our pick ).

 

[PlayerNumber9]

If he doesn't pick good players he's not a good recruiter. It's a really basic concept. Dunny came good but you wouldn't want him to be the poster boy for how to draft players. He's completely separate to the Libba needing the players that he's picked to come good any way.

My issue with Dunny is that he was our second best mid and we were happy to cull him. It looks like stupid list management when we are talking finals and don't have a cupboard full of good mids.

Dunstan was not our second best mid though. No one had him in our best 22, and that was plain for everyone to see. He came into the team due to injuries to mids who we rate higher than him - Jones, Gresham, etc - and lost his place because the coach thinks that Bytel is potentially a better player.

Given the expectation that we will bring three midfielders into the club next week, it is smart list management to clean out depth players who are unlikely to ever get a game.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I do really hope the three talls go before our pick in the draft.

Would leave us with one of :
Rachelle, Ward, Hobbs, Erasmus

 

[Crusty Undies]

Dunstan was not our second best mid though. No one had him in our best 22, and that was plain for everyone to see. He came into the team due to injuries to mids who we rate higher than him - Jones, Gresham, etc - and lost his place because the coach thinks that Bytel is potentially a better player.

Given the expectation that we will bring three midfielders into the club next week, it is smart list management to clean out depth players who are unlikely to ever get a game.

But. But. He got 12 brownlow votes! 2nd best player no doubt.

 

[bird_man]

I do really hope the three talls go before our pick in the draft.

Would leave us with one of :
Rachelle, Ward, Hobbs, Erasmus

This is the ideal scenario

NM - JHF
Coll - Daicos
WB - Darcy
GWS - Callaghan
GC - Gibcus
Adel - Rachelle
Haw - Hobbs/Ward
Freo - Amiss
Rich - Andrew
Freo - Erasmus

Richmond would still have to be a strong chance to take Gibcus though if GC take Andrew. With Grimes over 30 he'd be the perfect replacement.

They then still have a later first to use on a mid.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Guessing this means we have Peris and Kyle pencilled in as Cat B rookies?

Doesn't the nomination give the Saints a chance to match if another team tries to pick them in the draft?
Do they need to be nominated now to be taken as Cat B rookies after the draft?

Friday 26 November at 11.30am-12 – Pre-Selected Rookies; NSW and Queensland Eligible Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged; Father-Son
Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged; Academy Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged; NGA Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged
Note: These nominations remain confidential until announced between NAB AFL Pre-Season/Rookie Draft

The current nominations mean that we can take all four in the draft if they are bid on after round 1.

Its possible we can get :
Round 1: Erasmus
Round 2: Owens , Hindhager.
Round ?? Kyle
Round ?? Peris

Cat B Rookie: Bielby , McLennan

Rookie Draft : Gun full back from state league, somehow overlooked by all other clubs.

 

[bird_man]

Doesn't the nomination give the Saints a chance to match if another team tries to pick them in the draft?
Do they need to be nominated now to be taken as Cat B rookies after the draft?

Friday 26 November at 11.30am-12 – Pre-Selected Rookies; NSW and Queensland Eligible Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged; Father-Son
Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged; Academy Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged; NGA Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged
Note: These nominations remain confidential until announced between NAB AFL Pre-Season/Rookie Draft

The current nominations mean that we can take all four in the draft if they are bid on after round 1.

Its possible we can get :
Round 1: Erasmus
Round 2: Owens , Hindhager.
Round ?? Kyle
Round ?? Peris

Cat B Rookie: Bielby , McLennan

Rookie Draft : Gun full back from state league, somehow overlooked by all other clubs.

I highly doubt either will be bidded on in the draft to be honest

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Apparently no one went to Owens 18th birthday party.

I hear that he drank a beer at 7pm, even though he wasn't born until 8:30pm.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I highly doubt either will be bidded on in the draft to be honest

The nomination must be in case they are.

As i posted , the nomination for pre-selected rookies is a different one.

 

[ScrappyDo]

This is the ideal scenario

NM - JHF
Coll - Daicos
WB - Darcy
GWS - Callaghan
GC - Gibcus
Adel - Rachelle
Haw - Hobbs/Ward
Freo - Amiss
Rich - Andrew
Freo - Erasmus

Richmond would still have to be a strong chance to take Gibcus though if GC take Andrew. With Grimes over 30 he'd be the perfect replacement.

They then still have a later first to use on a mid.

With Gags' "agile" draft strategy, could we trade down with West Coast, then GWS, then Richmond? Each time focusing on upgrading or future picks to fill the bank..

 

[D2D3]

With Gags' "agile" draft strategy, could we trade down with West Coast, then GWS, then Richmond? Each time focusing on upgrading or future picks to fill the bank..

I’m warming to the idea of us making some trades so long as we don’t drop too far down the order. If Hobbs and Ward are both gone by our pick there is a lot of talent in the teens that’s difficult to separate. It would be nice if we could get a couple of bites of the cherry

 

[ScrappyDo]

I’m warming to the idea of us making some trades so long as we don’t drop too far down the order. If Hobbs and Ward are both gone by our pick there is a lot of talent in the teens that’s difficult to separate. It would be nice if we could get a couple of bites of the cherry

I guess it just comes down to who we might be wanting. If it's Chesser for example then there's some good opportunity, but Sinn or maybe Goater less so.

 

[The_Steadier]

My issue with Gibcus is that he's not the style of defender we need.

Doogs is not a dour, lockdown FB. His best work is timing his run to come over the top with a massive spoil, then linking up the field with a 60m bomb inside 50. He's a perfect CHB for the modern game.

Wilkie is best suited to be a Dylan Grimes type. He's a tall that plays on the 2nd small or mid size forward because he can match them, athletically.

What I think we lack is that lockdown tall defender. The type of guy who can sit on the deepest tall forward and just blanket their scoring. Create that nil all draw that allows Howard, Highmore and Coffield to intercept the high ball.

We need the Astbury to our Rance/Balta. The Barass to our McGovern. The Gardiner to our Harris Andrews.

That's not Gibcus IMO.

Bingo, we've already got our superstar CHB, we need to find the next tom barrass at FB to partner doogs till 2030.

We shouldn't need to spend anything close to a first rounder finding that- our first rounder simply must be best available mid

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Doesn't the nomination give the Saints a chance to match if another team tries to pick them in the draft?
Do they need to be nominated now to be taken as Cat B rookies after the draft?

Friday 26 November at 11.30am-12 – Pre-Selected Rookies; NSW and Queensland Eligible Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged; Father-Son
Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged; Academy Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged; NGA Pre-Selected Rookie Player Nominations Lodged
Note: These nominations remain confidential until announced between NAB AFL Pre-Season/Rookie Draft

The current nominations mean that we can take all four in the draft if they are bid on after round 1.

Its possible we can get :
Round 1: Erasmus
Round 2: Owens , Hindhager.
Round ?? Kyle
Round ?? Peris

Cat B Rookie: Bielby , McLennan

Rookie Draft : Gun full back from state league, somehow overlooked by all other clubs.

by the sounds of things erasmus isn’t even in our considerations, not sure why but no even possible links from the media, twomey reckons he will ‘come into consideration’ from 10 onwards

 

[bird_man]

Bingo, we've already got our superstar CHB, we need to find the next tom barrass at FB to partner doogs till 2030.

We shouldn't need to spend anything close to a first rounder finding that- our first rounder simply must be best available mid

Howard is far from a superstar unfortunately

 

[SaintsSeptember]

by the sounds of things erasmus isn’t even in our considerations, not sure why but no even possible links from the media, twomey reckons he will ‘come into consideration’ from 10 onwards

He has Wangeneen-Milera at 12 after Amiss at 11.

Just realised what a horrible name Amiss is for a key forward.

AND JYE LINES UP....UNLOADS....its across the face its AMISS!!!!!

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

He has Wangeneen-Milera at 12 after Amiss at 11.

Just realised what a horrible name Amiss is for a key forward.

AND JYE LINES UP....UNLOADS....its across the face its AMISS!!!!!

Amissy Higgins would be the headlines