List Mgmt. Neal-Bullen nominates Crows

[AFC979810]

Dobson is projected to be drafted in the early 20s though.

So if he is going in the early 20's - whats the benefit of having pick 25?

 

[ABAB]

So if he is going in the early 20's - whats the benefit of having pick 25?

Trade up using pick 25.

 

[Captain Furious]

You sure did. Maybe I should have phrased it a bit better.

Comparing NFL draft picks and their worth to AFL draft picks and their worth is utterly stupid.



So your argument is that rookie draft picks are valuable?

With regards to pick 25 - between the years 2000 and 2018 we have had 51 draft selections that were 25 and later. Only 10 of them of have gone on to play 100 games for the club. Once again - picks outside of the top 15 aren't really that valuable.




8th in a premiership teams B&F. He is a very good role player who makes us better. We have plenty of top end draft picks over the past 5 years we are trying to develop.

And what are you expecting with pick 25?

Who are the best picks 25 since 2000 until we picked Cook in 2020?

The best players from pick 25 since 2000 have been - Jack Redden, Seb Ross, Dan McStay, Josh Dunkley, Ben Long, Noah Balta, James Rowbottom.

In the last 20 years the best pick 25 has been a good role player.

You are Peter Griffith in this clip.





25 aint an early pick - especially when there are only 60 picks in the entire AFL draft.

You understand that when you pull out random arbitrary time periods and examples of the exact pick 25, we all know you’re deliberately giving a specific picture to try and prop up an untenable argument? You know you’re not fooling anyone?

 

[Scorpus]

All of the players traded above had massive question marks - thus diminishing the value of the mid 20's picks.

Bruce, Watts, Grundy, Higgins, Hibberd (27) were all older players traded in.

Plenty of others had issues which diminished their value. Christenson (Gambling), Stringer (off field), Schace (shit footballer).

Plenty others had shown nowhere near what ABN has shown in his career.

It appears no other clubs really rate picks in the 20's.

I don't agree. Clubs traded picks in the 20s for most of those players because they were taking a risk. If it paid off there was the potential of a long term player, but there was some chance it might not occur. In many of those cases if the player was proven (eg Stringer, Menzel, Schache) they would have commanded a much higher price.

The older players traded for that type of pick were All Australian quality like Grundy and Higgins

Picks in the 20s are also commonly traded for younger best 22 players that aren't stars.

There is zero chance of Neal-Bullen being a long term player, like a Stringer or Brad Hill.

Players of his age and role are most commonly traded for picks in the 35 to 50 range even if clubs still don't rate second round picks that highly.

 

[AFC979810]

I don't agree. Clubs traded picks in the 20s for most of those players because they were taking a risk. If it paid off there was the potential of a long term player, but there was some chance it might not occur.

You mean apart from Bruce, Watts, Grundy, Higgins and Hibberd. Plenty of clubs are willing to part with picks in the 20's for a variety of reasons.

Picks in the 20s are also commonly traded for younger best 22 players that aren't stars.

Yeah - picks in the 20's aint that valuable. You are arguing my point here.

With our list composition - I would much rather go for a guaranteed upgrade on our best 22 rather than a 10% chance of our pick in the 20's becoming a great player in 4 years.

There is zero chance of Neal-Bullen being a long term player, like a Stringer or Brad Hill.

Players of his age and role are most commonly traded for picks in the 35 to 50 range even if clubs still don't rate second round picks that highly.

He can't play till he is 32? At worst if he played for 3 years - thats 60 games. The average career span of an AFL footballer is 30 games.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I don't agree. Clubs traded picks in the 20s for most of those players because they were taking a risk. If it paid off there was the potential of a long term player, but there was some chance it might not occur. In many of those cases if the player was proven (eg Stringer, Menzel, Schache) they would have commanded a much higher price.

The older players traded for that type of pick were All Australian quality like Grundy and Higgins

Picks in the 20s are also commonly traded for younger best 22 players that aren't stars.

There is zero chance of Neal-Bullen being a long term player, like a Stringer or Brad Hill.

Players of his age and role are most commonly traded for picks in the 35 to 50 range even if clubs still don't rate second round picks that highly.

I still think 25 should be kept if at all possible (given this draft's depth into the 30's), but you do have to keep in mind ANB's had probably his best season in a while this year, as statistically the best half-forward pressure player in the comp

This isn't a Lachie Hunter situation where the player is clearly on the decline

That said, F2 would make a lot more sense for us, and would surely still be enough value for Melb - and if we can't get Luko to nominate us, I think that still could be on the cards

 

[Scorpus]

You mean apart from Bruce, Watts, Grundy, Higgins and Hibberd. Plenty of clubs are willing to part with picks in the 20's for a variety of reasons.



Yeah - picks in the 20's aint that valuable. You are arguing my point here.

With our list composition - I would much rather go for a guaranteed upgrade on our best 22 rather than a 10% chance of our pick in the 20's becoming a great player in 4 years.



He can't play till he is 32? At worst if he played for 3 years - thats 60 games. The average career span of an AFL footballer is 30 games.

A pick not being overly valuable doesn't mean clubs should throw them away on below league average trades.

The average games played by a pick taken between 20 and 30 is 90 games.

You've brought up players like Watts, Hibberd, Bruce. All of these guys were 27 at the start of the season at their new club. Higgins and Grundy were All Australian quality.

If Neal-Bullen was 27 at the start of 2025 and could give us five quality season, or he was All Australian quality, I'd have no issue with the deal.

He's not though. And most players don't produce quality football at 32 even if they appear like they could beforehand

 

[Scorpus]

I still think 25 should be kept if at all possible (given this draft's depth into the 30's), but you do have to keep in mind ANB's had probably his best season in a while this year, as statistically the best half-forward pressure player in the comp

This isn't a Lachie Hunter situation where the player is clearly on the decline

That said, F2 would make a lot more sense for us, and would surely still be enough value for Melb - and if we can't get Luko to nominate us, I think that still could be on the cards

Peaking at 28 years old isn't unusual. It's the question of what happens after that.

He's not a Pendlebury elite type where if he falls away a bit he's still a very good player. If ANB drops off 25% as a 32 year old he will be unpickable

 

[Danger in Texas]

Peaking at 28 years old isn't unusual. It's the question of what happens after that.

He's not a Pendlebury elite type where if he falls away a bit he's still a very good player. If ANB drops off 25% as a 32 year old he will be unpickable

75% of ANB's 2024 production is just below what his production was for 2021-23. I wouldn't say that's unpickable

As I've said, specifically in ANB's case, I don't think he'll be the type to fall off quickly, either. Doesn't rely hugely on athleticism, as it stands. We're definitely scarred by guys like Laird/Smith, who look noticeably worse after losing a step

 

[AFC979810]

A pick not being overly valuable doesn't mean clubs should throw them away on below league average trades.

I disagree we are throwing it away on a below league average trade.

ABN was a top 8 player at a side that won the bloody flag.

The average games played by a pick taken between 20 and 30 is 90 games.

Good work using Draft Guru's - but dig deeper.

The average games that a player plays for the club that drafted him is 67.4. Thats the average - so there is inherit risk that we get a dud. With ABN we know what we are getting.

You've brought up players like Watts, Hibberd, Bruce. All of these guys were 27 at the start of the season at their new club. Higgins and Grundy were All Australian quality.

So a known commodity for 3 years isn't worth a mid 20's pick but a player with a lot more risk and red flags of making it at AFL is worth a mid 20's pick because if you pick right you get them for longer?

Silly.

If Neal-Bullen was 27 at the start of 2025 and could give us five quality season, or he was All Australian quality, I'd have no issue with the deal.

Jeez - you want em to make list management decisions 5 years in advance. Good F*cking luck. Imagine telling someone on September 20th - 2017 that we would win the spoon in 2020.

He's not though. And most players don't produce quality football at 32 even if they appear like they could beforehand

But we can have him produce quality football at 29, 30 and 31 which more than justifies the pick in the mid 20's.

 

[AFC979810]

Peaking at 28 years old isn't unusual. It's the question of what happens after that.

He's not a Pendlebury elite type where if he falls away a bit he's still a very good player. If ANB drops off 25% as a 32 year old he will be unpickable

And if he produces at his current level at 29,30,31 - then he more than justifies us using pick 25.

 

[Scorpus]

75% of ANB's 2024 production is just below what his production was for 2021-23. I wouldn't say that's unpickable

As I've said, specifically in ANB's case, I don't think he'll be the type to fall off quickly, either. Doesn't rely hugely on athleticism, as it stands. We're definitely scarred by guys like Laird/Smith, who look noticeably worse after losing a step

I think we all like to believe that players will still deliver at 32 but it's pretty rare.

Anything at that age is a complete gamble

 

[Scorpus]

And if he produces at his current level at 29,30,31 - then he more than justifies us using pick 25.

I just fundamentally disagree that using pick 25 to get a player for three years is a good deal

 

[AFC979810]

I think we all like to believe that players will still deliver at 32 but it's pretty rare.

Anything at that age is a complete gamble

Why are you so locked in to what happens in 2028?!?!?!

 

[Scorpus]

Why are you so locked in to what happens in 2028?!?!?!

I would have thought it's obvious. Every quality year you get out of a traded player increases its value

 

[Scorpus]

And this completely ignores that Melbourne are willingly letting him go for apparent family reasons so they have little to no leverage in the trade

 

[Danger in Texas]

I think we all like to believe that players will still deliver at 32 but it's pretty rare.

Anything at that age is a complete gamble

Eh, maybe. It depends case-to-case

We won't need to lean on him as a star or even as one of our leading offensive players, just to be our primary pressure half-forward. I'd be pretty confident he'll be definite best 22 for three or four seasons

But still, giving up 25 at all (let alone on the first day or two of the trade period) would be annoying, I'd hope we'd try to negotiate our way out of doing that

 

[AFC979810]

I just fundamentally disagree that using pick 25 to get a player for three years is a good deal

You are right. Always a red flag trading in a 29 year old player for pick 25....

Although hang on...

I seem to remember a team that won 9 games in 1995 and missed the finals. They traded in a forward who was 29 for pick 25....

I wish the Crows never traded pick 25 for Darren Jarman.

 

[AFC979810]

I would have thought it's obvious. Every quality year you get out of a traded player increases its value

Thinking you can predict what happens 4 years out is pure stupidity.

Although doesn't surprise me - didn't you declare Brisbane couldn't make the Grand Final after watching in Rd 1?!?!?

 

[Scorpus]

You are right. Always a red flag trading in a 29 year old player for pick 25....

Although hang on...

I seem to remember a team that won 9 games in 1995 and missed the finals. They traded in a forward who was 29 for pick 25....

I wish the Crows never traded pick 25 for Darren Jarman.

Yes, Alex Neal-Bullen is as good as Darren Jarman and therefore worth the same

 

[Danger in Texas]

You are right. Always a red flag trading in a 29 year old player for pick 25....

Although hang on...

I seem to remember a team that won 9 games in 1995 and missed the finals. They traded in a forward who was 29 for pick 25....

I wish the Crows never traded pick 25 for Darren Jarman.

I wasn’t even alive at this point and am not sure how highly he was rated at the time, but we traded Wellman too in that deal, right?

 

[Scorpus]

Thinking you can predict what happens 4 years out is pure stupidity.

Although doesn't surprise me - didn't you declare Brisbane couldn't make the Grand Final after watching in Rd 1?!?!?

Right so when we traded pick 5 for Rankine we didn't factor in anything about what he would be four years into the future

 

[Scorpus]

I wasn’t even alive at this point and am not sure how highly he was rated at the time, but we traded Wellman too in that deal, right?

He was a 2x All Australian and made the AA side the year he was traded

 

[AFC979810]

I wasn’t even alive at this point and am not sure how highly he was rated at the time, but we traded Wellman too in that deal, right?

Ha ha ha - yup. It was a complicated deal with lots of moving pieces and yes we ended up giving up Wellman.

But Draft Guru - old mate Scorpus favorite site - lists it as Jarman for pick 25

 

[Crow till I die]

You are right. Always a red flag trading in a 29 year old player for pick 25....

Although hang on...

I seem to remember a team that won 9 games in 1995 and missed the finals. They traded in a forward who was 29 for pick 25....

I wish the Crows never traded pick 25 for Darren Jarman.

Sorry, for a minute I thought you were meaning we are looking to trade in a 29 year old Petracca from Melbourne for a mid 20's pick and got your spelling wrong and used ANB instead - as you raised D Jarmans name and I thought you would be using a comparable name for comparable pick although Petracca is not quite D Jarman level as good as he is.