Next flag - Carlton, Essendon or Richmond?

[telsor]

Wut?

Carton has a younger list

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-12-03/total-list-breakdown-all-the-key-stats

I said youngest 22. AKA those on the ground, getting game time and top level experience.

That we have the likes of Maric as a backup/playing coach type in the 2s doesn't really alter our chances of a flag over the next few years. That were getting matches into our kids might.

 

[BlueJet]

The way I see it:

Richmond have the best list at the moment. They'll have to start contending from this year onwards to make use of Cotchin/Martin/Rance/Riewoldt. But with 2 first rounders, they can continue to build their fairly young list. Age and experience wise, they're in between Carlton and Essendon, but their best players are all heading towards 30.

Essendon have a mixture of old and young. They're in between, phasing out the older guys and bringing in the younger guys. Success in the draft post 2013 sees them with the best youngsters of the 3 and the likeliest to start contending first with the next generation. For Essendon, the older guys are important, but it is the younger guys like Heppell, Daniher, Merrett and Parish that are leading the next generation.

Carlton is the youngest of the 3 and have started a full rebuild. They're probably in a sense the furthest away as they focus on rebuilding. They more or less have their backline already sorted and have assembled the best young backline of the 3 teams.

If you ask me who will contend first, I'll have to say Richmond because they have the best list at the moment.

If the question is who will win the flag first, no idea.

Pretty fair evaluation tbh.


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[Shadeeq]

That's all fair enough but at the end the truth may simply be; None of us know. How could we?

Actually I was only referring to the youth that is somewhat exposed at AFL level. We only have so many tools and then guesswork to try an answer the question posed in this thread. What we do know is that Essendon have more mid aged players that are clearly AFL standard. And we know how both our kids have performed so far without guessing how good they will become. Our young players like Merrett, Daniher, Fantasia, Parish etc. have so far performed ahead of Carlton's youth, which is to be expected at this stage, as yours are less experienced. Based on what we know so far, I think Essendon are ahead of Carlton and more likely to win a premiership first.

 

[HARKER]

Actually I was only referring to the youth that is somewhat exposed at AFL level. We only have so many tools and then guesswork to try an answer the question posed in this thread. What we do know is that Essendon have more mid aged players that are clearly AFL standard. And we know how both our kids have performed so far without guessing how good they will become. Our young players like Merrett, Daniher, Fantasia, Parish etc. have so far performed ahead of Carlton's youth, which is to be expected at this stage, as yours are less experienced. Based on what we know so far, I think Essendon are ahead of Carlton and more likely to win a premiership first.

Better than Cripps, Docherty, Weitering, Plowman, Marchbank etc.?......Maybe.
Lot of our youth still has to prove itself but are getting a run now: Curnow, Silvagni, Petrevski-Seton, Byrne etc.

At the end of the day, names alone don't mean as much, as for how the whole works together.

 

[Fadge]

Oh hello there grasshopper!!!

Always love a good Carlton dig and you never disappoint. Our rebuild would of fast tracked that so much more had we given Wells and Mayne multi year contacts on big dollars i suppose like you guys......

#neverchange

Carlton couldn't have afforded them. They've got Thomas and Liam Jones taking up too much of their salary cap space.

So is this the rebuild that is finally going to see you contending?

 

[Chism]

Carlton couldn't have afforded them. They've got Thomas and Liam Jones taking up too much of their salary cap space.

So is this the rebuild that is finally going to see you contending?

Lol and what makes this post worse is that you actually believe it!!

Thomas contract was massively front loaded and he is on peanuts this season and roughly half of what Wells is getting. Jones is also in the same boat but whatever floats your boat and both these guys will be gone next season unlike Wells and Mayne.

Worry about your own team as your obsession with anything Carlton is seriously affecting you and i hope you are o.k with everything.

 

[Juddernaut05]

The way I see it:

Richmond have the best list at the moment. They'll have to start contending from this year onwards to make use of Cotchin/Martin/Rance/Riewoldt. But with 2 first rounders, they can continue to build their fairly young list. Age and experience wise, they're in between Carlton and Essendon, but their best players are all heading towards 30.

Essendon have a mixture of old and young. They're in between, phasing out the older guys and bringing in the younger guys. Success in the draft post 2013 sees them with the best youngsters of the 3 and the likeliest to start contending first with the next generation. For Essendon, the older guys are important, but it is the younger guys like Heppell, Daniher, Merrett and Parish that are leading the next generation.

Carlton is the youngest of the 3 and have started a full rebuild. They're probably in a sense the furthest away as they focus on rebuilding. They more or less have their backline already sorted and have assembled the best young backline of the 3 teams.

If you ask me who will contend first, I'll have to say Richmond because they have the best list at the moment.

If the question is who will win the flag first, no idea.

Richmond would want to be the closest to a flag ... they genuinely have hardly anyone under 23 that has potential A grade status. I think Nankervis is around that age bracket and think will be a solid contributor. Rioli is the only exception as he could be very good. Could be Eddie betts could be Jeff Garlett. Also none of there big 4 are going to improve as footballers. All in there peak. They also have the Carlton disease of picking too many blokes that can't kick. I don't know how much you guys paid for Prestia but his disposal is putrid.

Yes I know I am a Carlton supporter .... our list still has too many plodders. There will be another big turnover of players at the end of the year. We have some decent talls but our midfield has no depth and again Kreuzer, murphy and Gibbs had to do too much heavy lifting last week. Midfielders should be our priority drafting and trading this year and I hope we don't go free agency just yet as we are a while off. I believe for us to even be in this discussion McKay needs to become a player. Too early to say.

Essendon is probably the closest ... got a decent mix with some good key position and midfielders. Still think merrett is underrated somehow but Heppell for mine is overrated.

Bottom line is that it is pretty hard to get a flag which is why I envy all hawks supporters as it's not meant to be that easy. I still think all three lists have too many blokes in there best 22 that should not be playing AFL. If all three sides put there team next to GWS and matched player for player you would wonder why we are even having this discussion. In saying that no one had bulldogs winning the flag last year and I dare say most tigers supporters at the beginning of the season would not have said they would be 3-0, probably 4-0 by the end of the round.

Anyway neither will win a flag in the next three years but game on after that. Comp is getting more even. Good luck with tipping this year. No chance


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[MightyTiger]

Richmond would want to be the closest to a flag ... they genuinely have hardly anyone under 23 that has potential A grade status. I think Nankervis is around that age bracket and think will be a solid contributor. Rioli is the only exception as he could be very good. Could be Eddie betts could be Jeff Garlett. Also none of there big 4 are going to improve as footballers. All in there peak. They also have the Carlton disease of picking too many blokes that can't kick. I don't know how much you guys paid for Prestia but his disposal is putrid.

Yes I know I am a Carlton supporter .... our list still has too many plodders. There will be another big turnover of players at the end of the year. We have some decent talls but our midfield has no depth and again Kreuzer, murphy and Gibbs had to do too much heavy lifting last week. Midfielders should be our priority drafting and trading this year and I hope we don't go free agency just yet as we are a while off. I believe for us to even be in this discussion McKay needs to become a player. Too early to say.

Essendon is probably the closest ... got a decent mix with some good key position and midfielders. Still think merrett is underrated somehow but Heppell for mine is overrated.

Bottom line is that it is pretty hard to get a flag which is why I envy all hawks supporters as it's not meant to be that easy. I still think all three lists have too many blokes in there best 22 that should not be playing AFL. If all three sides put there team next to GWS and matched player for player you would wonder why we are even having this discussion. In saying that no one had bulldogs winning the flag last year and I dare say most tigers supporters at the beginning of the season would not have said they would be 3-0, probably 4-0 by the end of the round.

Anyway neither will win a flag in the next three years but game on after that. Comp is getting more even. Good luck with tipping this year. No chance


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Well that's a shame considering just last week the team that beat west coast was younger then both Carlton's and Essendons.

You guys continue your pissing contest whilst my club continues building quietly and winning games of football.

Btw 2 first round drafting picks to play with this year, including a FS who's tipped to go first round who'll be gobbled up with a second round pick .

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[footyfan1978]

Richmond would want to be the closest to a flag ... they genuinely have hardly anyone under 23 that has potential A grade status.

Just out of interest had a look at the under 24 year olds in the teams this week.
Richmond have Elton, Ellis, Vlastuin, Nankervis, McIntosh, Short, Butler, Castagna, Menadue and Rioli.
Carlton have Docherty, Plowman, Cripps, Pickett, Marchbank, Charlie Curnow, Weitering, Jack Silvagni, Petrevski-Seton, Macreadie, Fisher and Williamson.
It is a no contest. Our youth has so much more A grade potential. Most of Richmond youth will struggle to get to B status apart from Rioli and Nankervis by looks of things.
9th is their natural spot to tend towards.

 

[Juddernaut05]

Well that's a shame considering just last week the team that beat west coast was younger then both Carlton's and Essendons.

You guys continue your pissing contest whilst my club continues building quietly and winning games of football.

Btw 2 first round drafting picks to play with this year, including a FS who's tipped to go first round who'll be gobbled up with a second round pick .

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Not getting into a pissing contest mate ... tried to give an unbiased assessment as a Carlton supporter. Yes you are winning games. The thread is who is closest to a premiership. I don't believe you can win it this year however you might which is fine. I think there are teams that have better lists than all three sides discussed now and for the next three years to contend. Point out where I am wrong and happy to discuss.

Is anything I said incorrect




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[MightyTiger]

Not getting into a pissing contest mate ... tried to give an unbiased assessment as a Carlton supporter. Yes you are winning games. The thread is who is closest to a premiership. I don't believe you can win it this year however you might which is fine. I think there are teams that have better lists than all three sides discussed now and for the next three years to contend. Point out where I am wrong and happy to discuss.

Is anything I said incorrect




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Your assessment basically comes down to which club has had the most top end picks in the last few years, and the fact that your mob is basically a GWS reserves side thinking that every kid you've taken from GWS is a potential star.

Fact of the matter is you guys have a bunch of kids who were rated as teenagers, who have shown a few glimpses here and there but on the whole have done not much, at this point in time it's 50/50 they could turn out to be stars or turn out to be flops.

The club closest to a premiership is the one winning games.

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[Juddernaut05]

Your assessment basically comes down to which club has had the most top end picks in the last few years, and the fact that your mob is basically a GWS reserves side thinking that every kid you've taken from GWS is a potential star.

Fact of the matter is you guys have a bunch of kids who were rated as teenagers, who have shown a few glimpses here and there but on the whole have done not much, at this point in time it's 50/50 they could turn out to be stars or turn out to be flops.

The club closest to a premiership is the one winning games.

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I haven't once mentioned top end picks ... top end picks mean stuff all if you pick duds. Look at boekhorst for us. What you are obviously taking offence to is that I said your side has no one under 23 that you can conclusively say will be an A grader. Where I agree with you is those three sides that have been discussed, there are players that have shown a little bit in this age bracket. This in no way means that they will be A graders. Carlton and Essendon have more players that have shown glimpses under 23. Again they may not turn out. Again you may disagree but I would say Merret, Cripps and docherty are a graders right now under 23 with Daniher and castagna not far off and weitering not far off them. This again does not correlate with winning premierships but my contention was that your big 4 aren't going to get better (if dusty gets better then look out) so you would want to be closer to a premiership now. Again don't get defensive and go on a tangent. This is only my opinion and instead of dismissing it argue one of my points as I am happy to discuss


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[Murphkreuzmitch]

Your assessment basically comes down to which club has had the most top end picks in the last few years, and the fact that your mob is basically a GWS reserves side thinking that every kid you've taken from GWS is a potential star.

Fact of the matter is you guys have a bunch of kids who were rated as teenagers, who have shown a few glimpses here and there but on the whole have done not much, at this point in time it's 50/50 they could turn out to be stars or turn out to be flops.

The club closest to a premiership is the one winning games.

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Round 4 yeah. Long way to go.

 

[MightyTiger]

I haven't once mentioned top end picks ... top end picks mean stuff all if you pick duds. Look at boekhorst for us. What you are obviously taking offence to is that I said your side has no one under 23 that you can conclusively say will be an A grader. Where I agree with you is those three sides that have been discussed, there are players that have shown a little bit in this age bracket. This in no way means that they will be A graders. Carlton and Essendon have more players that have shown glimpses under 23. Again they may not turn out. Again you may disagree but I would say Merret, Cripps and docherty are a graders right now under 23 with Daniher and castagna not far off and weitering not far off them. This again does not correlate with winning premierships but my contention was that your big 4 aren't going to get better (if dusty gets better then look out) so you would want to be closer to a premiership now. Again don't get defensive and go on a tangent. This is only my opinion and instead of dismissing it argue one of my points as I am happy to discuss


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Not taking offence to anything.

Like I said, out of the three teams on the weekend, we had the youngest.

 

[MightyTiger]

Round 4 yeah. Long way to go.

Not just talking about this year, I'm talking about every year of an AFL season, not really giving yourselfes much of a chance of winning a premiership if you're constantly only winning 3-5 games of footy a year is it.

 

[Juddernaut05]

Not taking offence to anything.

Like I said, out of the three teams on the weekend, we had the youngest.

I haven't looked at the numbers but I don't doubt you ... Carlton and Essendon do have a few blokes that are near done and in 30s. I dare say your main age bracket is 23-27 and that is why I am saying tigs would want to be closest to a flag as if people don't agree then they must be the most furthest away unless essendon and Carlton don't develop the blokes they have picked the last few years


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[HBF]

Carlton couldn't have afforded them. They've got Thomas and Liam Jones taking up too much of their salary cap space.

So is this the rebuild that is finally going to see you contending?

Jones gone at years end. We might have to "Bartel" Thomas if he triggers his 5th year.

 

[Murphkreuzmitch]

Not just talking about this year, I'm talking about every year of an AFL season, not really giving yourselfes much of a chance of winning a premiership if you're constantly only winning 3-5 games of footy a year is it.

Of course. But you dont get there sitting in the middle of the road either winning 10 to 12 with an ageing list. Richmond are in a good spot to really add some talent around the draft this year hopefully they keep playing kids this year despite what may come about for the WL record. That will put them a long way ahead of both ess and cfc

 

[PumpyChowdown]

Clearly Carlton. Already have a better list than Essendon and Richmond and so young, with at least another huge intake of kids at the end of the season. We're also building a large war chest to target FA's and out of contract players over the next few years.

Tigers list is very shallow, with the addition of Caddy and Prestia just a band aid. Bombers list is about on par with the Tigers. Patchy and shallow. Both teams really need a full rebuild if they are to seriously challenge Carlton over the next decade.

 

[Grrr]

Just out of interest had a look at the under 24 year olds in the teams this week.
Richmond have Elton, Ellis, Vlastuin, Nankervis, McIntosh, Short, Butler, Castagna, Menadue and Rioli.
Carlton have Docherty, Plowman, Cripps, Pickett, Marchbank, Charlie Curnow, Weitering, Jack Silvagni, Petrevski-Seton, Macreadie, Fisher and Williamson.
It is a no contest. Our youth has so much more A grade potential. Most of Richmond youth will struggle to get to B status apart from Rioli and Nankervis by looks of things.
9th is their natural spot to tend towards.

I happen to agree with you that we don't have any elite young players that will reach the likes of Martin and Cotchin. Our first rounders have been ok, Rioli the pick of the bunch. But we are building a solid group and contributing across the board for the first time in years. So our depth is improving. Our bottom players are Butler and Costagna who are doing well. So unlikely to win a premiership with just this lot, but every year new players arrive, draft or from other clubs. We only need another couple. With Rance/Riewoldt and Cotchin only 27/28, we still some good years to rise. It doesn't take as much as people think unless there is a powerhouse like Geelong or Hawthorn dominating. (GWS maybe.)

 

[Blue1980]

Carlton couldn't have afforded them. They've got Thomas and Liam Jones taking up too much of their salary cap space.

So is this the rebuild that is finally going to see you contending?

Maybe, maybe not. Who could possibly know? The plan seems a good one, that's all we know.

Obviously Jones and Thomas were bad pickups from the salty malty times. Both will be gone at the end of the year, or in Thomas's case will be on a dramatically reduced salary if retained.

I don't think Jones would be on any kind of big coin, but any amount more than zero is too much.

 

[pinot]

Richmonds A-B graders

Martin
Cotchin
Rance
Riewoldt
Prestia
Ellis
Rioli
Grimes

This is good enough to win a flag - depends on how good the coach is. Richmond has the list to do it this year.

 

[Thrawn]

This is good enough to win a flag - depends on how good the coach is. Richmond has the list to do it this year.

Not with Hardwick they won't.

 

[Blue1980]

I happen to agree with you that we don't have any elite young players that will reach the likes of Martin and Cotchin. Our first rounders have been good, Rioli the pick of the bunch. But we are building a solid group and contributing across the board for the first time in years. So our depth is improving. Our bottom players are Butler and Costagna who are doing well. So unlikely to win a premiership with just this lot, but every year new players arrive, draft or from other clubs. We only need another couple. With Rance/Riewoldt and Cotchin only 27/28, we still some good years to rise. It doesn't take as much as people think unless there is a powerhouse like Geelong or Hawthorn dominating. (GWS maybe.)

I think Richmond ended up at a point we were around 2012/13 last year and instead of completely destroying the list malthouse style, they actually recruited well in the close season last year and probably got it in the nick of time.

Still a fair bit of work for them to do, if they manage to draft and trade well they could contend, it is possible. I don't think it will happen, doesn't mean it can't

 

[Blue1980]

Richmonds A-B graders

Martin
Cotchin
Rance
Riewoldt
Prestia
Ellis
Rioli
Grimes

This is good enough to win a flag - depends on how good the coach is. Richmond has the list to do it this year.

Need more than that.

Dusty at the peak of his powers is like cats with Danger though and what Judd was like for us from 08-11