Non-Lions discussion 2022

[Saucery]

This seems weird considering Sam Power apparently 'owned' the trade/draft period?????

Dogs ‘very disappointed’ after Good Friday dumping from 2023 fixture

‘Very disappointed’: Dogs fume after Good Friday dumping for rising Victorian powerhouse

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Monkey Daniel]

The way the Gabba test is travelling, maybe they should have allowed the AFLW Grand Final be played there…

 

[MSB ROYS]

The way the Gabba test is travelling, maybe they should have allowed the AFLW Grand Final be played there…

At least they would have had an excuse...

 

[Jim Stynes11]

Not really the logistics of getting rounds in an issue for me
No matter how many teams in the competition the AFL will come up with something not fair but will suffice

The AFL will not sit on 19 teams, so something will have to give
I recon the talent pool is stretched to the limit as it is, not to mention sponsorship dollars
20 teams would be terrible when more than 1/2 the population lives in 2 League dominated states

Will 19 AFL teams also mean their will be a Tasslass Tigress team in the AFLW

I keep hearing this about the talent pool getting stretched but not sure the logic makes sense to me.

In 1990, the population of Australia was a shade over 17m, and there were 14 AFL teams (1.2m population per team). Projecting forward to 2022, with 18 teams that is around 1.4m per team.

Using this website I found on google, we should have a population of 27.2m by 2026. We may not have a 19th team by then, never mind a 20th, but the ratio would be 1.36m per team at 20 teams.

Australia Population 1950-2024

Chart and table of Australia population from 1950 to 2024. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

www.macrotrends.net

Extremely simplistic, but I would think this is conservative as I would hazard a guess that the AFL has grown its market share over that period.

Have I missed something really obvious?

 

[briztoon]

I keep hearing this about the talent pool getting stretched but not sure the logic makes sense to me.

In 1990, the population of Australia was a shade over 17m, and there were 14 AFL teams (1.2m population per team). Projecting forward to 2022, with 18 teams that is around 1.4m per team.

Using this website I found on google, we should have a population of 27.2m by 2026. We may not have a 19th team by then, never mind a 20th, but the ratio would be 1.36m per team at 20 teams.

Australia Population 1950-2024

Chart and table of Australia population from 1950 to 2024. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

www.macrotrends.net

Extremely simplistic, but I would think this is conservative as I would hazard a guess that the AFL has grown its market share over that period.

Have I missed something really obvious?

Wonder where the next 2million are going to come from. I’m sure that I have read that without immigration, Australia has a negative birth rate.

We’re not going to be welcoming 500k new Australians each year, for the next 4 years.

 

[Jim Stynes11]

Wonder where the next 2million are going to come from. I’m sure that I have read that without immigration, Australia has a negative birth rate.

We’re not going to be welcoming 500k new Australians each year, for the next 4 years.

Admittedly not something I have much knowledge of. (I did a quick google search and the first hit suggests we have had a negative birth rate consistently since 1977).
But looking at that website, seems surprising to me that Australia has had population increases every year through COVID. IF we had a 250k increase from 20-21, who's to say that won't increase to 500k / year.

• The current population of Australia in 2022 is 26,177,413, a 0.99% increase from 2021.
• The population of Australia in 2021 was 25,921,089, a 0.98% increase from 2020.
• The population of Australia in 2020 was 25,670,051, a 1.23% increase from 2019.
• The population of Australia in 2019 was 25,357,170, a 1.51% increase from 2018.

I suppose we're slightly veering off point. Given the increases in coaching etc, earlier access to players, as well as the increased market growth, you would think we would be able to "produce" a larger portion of players per general population. Shouldn't the current population at 26.1m be able to support sustained growth to 20 teams?

 

[briztoon]

Admittedly not something I have much knowledge of. (I did a quick google search and the first hit suggests we have had a negative birth rate consistently since 1977).
But looking at that website, seems surprising to me that Australia has had population increases every year through COVID. IF we had a 250k increase from 20-21, who's to say that won't increase to 500k / year.



I suppose we're slightly veering off point. Given the increases in coaching etc, earlier access to players, as well as the increased market growth, you would think we would be able to "produce" a larger portion of players per general population. Shouldn't the current population at 26.1m be able to support sustained growth to 20 teams?

I wonder if all the expats returning home during 2020 and 2021 counted towards our population increase.

Certainly help drive the housing prices.

Again off topic. But the rental market is so tight, and that’s with a very low overseas student rate at the moment.

Imagine what rentals will be like if the students come back.

 

[POBT]

I keep hearing this about the talent pool getting stretched but not sure the logic makes sense to me.

In 1990, the population of Australia was a shade over 17m, and there were 14 AFL teams (1.2m population per team). Projecting forward to 2022, with 18 teams that is around 1.4m per team.

Using this website I found on google, we should have a population of 27.2m by 2026. We may not have a 19th team by then, never mind a 20th, but the ratio would be 1.36m per team at 20 teams.

Australia Population 1950-2024

Chart and table of Australia population from 1950 to 2024. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

www.macrotrends.net

Extremely simplistic, but I would think this is conservative as I would hazard a guess that the AFL has grown its market share over that period.

Have I missed something really obvious?

I agree with you 100%.

Depth of talent isn't the problem - it's equalisation of talent. It wouldn't matter if every club had 2 players on the field who were VFL standard because that would still result in a relatively equal contest. But some clubs will have no VFL standard players and others will have 8. Pundits then look at the poor side and say "oh, there's not enough talent to go around" when the actual answer is to do more to spread the talent more equally. Moves like Keays to Adelaide should be happening more often than they do.

 

[Viceregal]

... and it's not like we are getting our immigrants from other countries where Aussie Rules is the primary ... major ... one of the top ... well known ... possibly never even heard of. There will be a lag where the kids raised here get exposed and then expose their kids early. Athletically gifted yougsters from other countries might well be already into cricket, league, union, soccer and if on top of that they find any level of real or imagined discrimination/racism well... and of course in our own backyard the amount of time spend in the backyard/park/fields etc vs video games etc can also be a factor.

Are other sports finding the same issues as we are?

 

[Section 5]

The AFL will not sit on 19 teams, so something will have to give
I recon the talent pool is stretched to the limit as it is, not to mention sponsorship dollars
20 teams would be terrible when more than 1/2 the population lives in 2 League dominated states
.......
Above part of my post that started the recent "talent pool" debate
I still believe it is an issue if we add Tasmania without amalgamation of another Victorian team
Personally, i think adding a Tassie team is a mistake but that's another discussion

Anyhow i think the future of the AFL talent pool lies in NSW & Qld with 52.2 % of Australia's population
As a sport minded person in my youth i closely followed Rugby League but that has all but ceased in my later years
I am still a casual observer over recent years. I have observed the NRL game has increasingly involved more Islander type players
Islanders being big boned, generally heavier and also quick they do suit the way the game of Rugby League is played.
I don't have the % of Islanders playing the game but i think it may be increasing each year
Someone can set me straight if i am on the wrong line of thinking

If i am correct in this assumption i believe this should leave a lot of untapped young League talent in these 2 states
They just won't be able to find a pathway to play at the highest NRL level if this trend continues

 

[McIvor]

The AFL will not sit on 19 teams, so something will have to give
I recon the talent pool is stretched to the limit as it is, not to mention sponsorship dollars
20 teams would be terrible when more than 1/2 the population lives in 2 League dominated states
.......
Above part of my post that started the recent "talent pool" debate
I still believe it is an issue if we add Tasmania without amalgamation of another Victorian team
Personally, i think adding a Tassie team is a mistake but that's another discussion

Anyhow i think the future of the AFL talent pool lies in NSW & Qld with 52.2 % of Australia's population
As a sport minded person in my youth i closely followed Rugby League but that has all but ceased in my later years
I am still a casual observer over recent years. I have observed the NRL game has increasingly involved more Islander type players
Islanders being big boned, generally heavier and also quick they do suit the way the game of Rugby League is played.
I don't have the % of Islanders playing the game but i think it may be increasing each year
Someone can set me straight if i am on the wrong line of thinking

If i am correct in this assumption i believe this should leave a lot of untapped young League talent in these 2 states
They just won't be able to find a pathway to play at the highest NRL level if this trend continues

Arent the NT already making noises about wanting the 20th licence - thought I read it somewhere. I get that all states and territories want representation but I'm with you, I think continual expansions just dilutes the pool of quality players. I know they wont b/c of revenue $'s, but I think the league would be better served if there were only 14 teams max. You could just about get to everyone playing each other home and away even if they reduced the length of Q's but obviously will never happen.

 

[Section 5]

I have mentioned before i am against a team in Tassie for various reasons.
With some positive recent talk by the PM regarding urban renewal funding (not so much pushing a stadium) and even stating Launceston could be included this could very well happen.

Below the ladder for the 7-team TSL competition 2022. Looks like it covers both the north and south of the island.
Also, a video of x Lion Aaron Cornelius the present Coach of Glenorchy
Glenorchy could get kicked out of the TSL league because they will struggle to field a development league (reserves) side. That is part of a TSL agreement.
In fact, they only have 41 players contracted to date.

As an outsider this appears to show the state of AFL and most likely supporter numbers on the island is in dire straights
You could argue than a national AFL side will kickstart the interest in the code, but at what costs.

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2022 Ladder​

LP	Club	P	W	L	D	FOR	AGN	%	PTS
1	Launceston	18	17	1	0	2136	797	268.01	68
2	Kingborough	18	13	5	0	1460	1143	127.73	52
3	Clarence	18	11	7	0	1456	1086	134.07	44
4	Lauderdale	18	10	8	0	1441	1208	119.29	40
5	North Launceston	18	9	9	0	1438	1208	119.04	36
6	North Hobart	18	3	15	0	1026	1767	58.06	12
7	Glenorchy	18	0	18	0	586	2334	25.11	0

 

[Section 5]

Another article on a Hobart stadium
Plus the Cost Benefit Analysis Report – Final Full Report 11 November 2022
................

https://www.stategrowth.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/415016/7._Hobart_Stadium_Cost_Benefit_Analysis_Report_-_MI_Global_Partners.pdf

Hobart's proposed AFL stadium says project would deliver $306m loss over 20 years, analysis says

 

[Morbidly_Obese]

I agree with you 100%.

Depth of talent isn't the problem - it's equalisation of talent. It wouldn't matter if every club had 2 players on the field who were VFL standard because that would still result in a relatively equal contest. But some clubs will have no VFL standard players and others will have 8. Pundits then look at the poor side and say "oh, there's not enough talent to go around" when the actual answer is to do more to spread the talent more equally. Moves like Keays to Adelaide should be happening more often than they do.

I disagree with that, teams shouldn't be punished when making good choices in the draft.

 

[Dalions]

I disagree with that, teams shouldn't be punished when making good choices in the draft.

Matho put himself up for trade this year and no club was interested.
He is certainly of a pretty high VFL Standard and can play at AFL level and would have been perfect for a couple of younger clubs I would have thought.

 

[briztoon]

Matho put himself up for trade this year and no club was interested.
He is certainly of a pretty high VFL Standard and can play at AFL level and would have been perfect for a couple of younger clubs I would have thought.

Who?

Apart from West Coast, most of the other lower ladder clubs are stocked with young mids that need game time to develop.

And West Coast still have a heap of mature mids to help develop their young players.

 

[Dalions]

Who?

Apart from West Coast, most of the other lower ladder clubs are stocked with young mids that need game time to develop.

And West Coast still have a heap of mature mids to help develop their young players.

Hawks are going to get spanked in a lot of games this year because they have just gone too young.
A bit of semi experience would have come in handy with their list.
Their midfield is hanging on Jai Newcombe and James Worpel.
Unless if Karl Amon is going to play an inside role.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Hawks are going to get spanked in a lot of games this year because they have just gone too young.
A bit of semi experience would have come in handy with their list.
Their midfield is hanging on Jai Newcombe and James Worpel.
Unless if Karl Amon is going to play an inside role.

Theyre tanking though

 

[briztoon]

Hawks are going to get spanked in a lot of games this year because they have just gone too young.
A bit of semi experience would have come in handy with their list.
Their midfield is hanging on Jai Newcombe and James Worpel.
Unless if Karl Amon is going to play an inside role.

What Nathan Barley said. Hawks are clearly going the for the golden tank, aka Harley Reid.

 

[briztoon]

Harley Reid training with Essendon last week as part of the AFL academy program.

Probably should have sent him to Hawthorn.

 

[Jim Stynes11]

FMD... this kid is 17?!

 

[lionshine]

Harley Reid training with Essendon last week as part of the AFL academy program.

Probably should have sent him to Hawthorn.

View attachment 1591803

He looks like a 28 year old man

 

[Cubs2Lions]

He looks like a 28 year old man

CONFIRMED: Harley Reid to Geelong

 

[Dalions]

CONFIRMED: Harley Reid to Geelong

And pick 7.

 

[Saucery]

"There's pressure on the Western Bulldogs, the second-oldest team in the league. The playing list is stacked, and they topped up with experienced veterans such as Rory Lobb and Liam Jones to plug holes in the trade period. Anything outside of a top-four finish will be a failure for newly signed coach Luke Beveridge and his aging list."

Lot of pressure on Sam Powers recruiting department one would think.

What does the average age of your AFL team tell us about its chances of success in 2023?

Kane Cornes explores the question.

www.sen.com.au