Non Lions Discussion 2024

[dlanod]

The only way the bombers make a grand final is if there is a massive loss of life suffered by their opponent each week leading to the grand final.

And?

 

[Perrip]

I don't believe we have any 'sure thing' games, such is the even nature of the competition this year. But if we're being realistic, how many of the final 4 games do we think we win?

GWS/Pies are the most likely for us to lose I reckon. Saints/Dons we should win.

 

[Jivlain]

Hawthorn board would be feeling pretty good about ditching Clarkson for Mitchell right now

 

[martinson]

I don't believe we have any 'sure thing' games, such is the even nature of the competition this year. But if we're being realistic, how many of the final 4 games do we think we win?

3.

 

[Elixuh]

 

[Tom14]

Good to see folks finally catching up. The data's been saying this for months

Sadly I can’t quote it but my round 13 preview covered this - at the time the numbers said that us and the dogs were both way better than our records.

Second half of the season has been a big win for the data heads - pies losing close games, Essendon regressing to where their sub 100 percentage tells us they should be, etc.

 

[Mr Ripper]

Bombers win their next two I reckon

 

[mpal6]

I don't believe we have any 'sure thing' games, such is the even nature of the competition this year. But if we're being realistic, how many of the final 4 games do we think we win?

Not sure about wins but I'm keen to see how we go against a fast rebound GWS game plan this time around. We couldn't stay with them after half time earlier this year in Canberra after a wet weather Geelong game previous week. Now the team has more clarity in roles, what's needed etc. Can't wait for this one.

 

[Sproj]

Not sure about wins but I'm keen to see how we go against a fast rebound GWS game plan this time around. We couldn't stay with them after half time earlier this year in Canberra after a wet weather Geelong game previous week. Now the team has more clarity in roles, what's needed etc. Can't wait for this one.

I feel like this is our final big test before finals, if we an nullify a quick team like this, which we have shown we can, nothing stands in our way this year.

 

[Perrip]

Sadly I can’t quote it but my round 13 preview covered this - at the time the numbers said that us and the dogs were both way better than our records.

Something like this?

 

[mpal6]

I feel like this is our final big test before finals, if we an nullify a quick team like this, which we have shown we can, nothing stands in our way this year.

Wirey framed, zippy small forwards are typically our other problem area. GWS took full toll of us playing Darcy Jones and that baby faced Harvey Thomas alongside Brent Daniels. It'll be interesting to see how we deal with them all as Hawks have a similar kind of high half forward setup with lot of fast movement and quick hands.

 

[Tom14]

Something like this? View attachment 2062309

Yeah basically this, and Wheelo rating's premiership metrics at the time had us 2nd and 3rd to the swans. I don't think I quoted either that or squiggle - instead I made a cheap spidemen pointing at each other gag.

 

[Dalions]

How good would it be if we were the team to end Collingwood’s Finals chances in Round 23?

 

[twhowler]

Looking at where we are and the fixtures remaining

Fixture analysis: Pies, Bombers face brutal runs in finals chase

Check out how difficult your team's run home is

www.afl.com.au

I would say if we win 3/4, IF! we are a decent chance still to finish top 2. The main dangers would be cats winning all of their remaining games (hardest is away v freo) or Freo percentage toppling ours.

The barracking index for this weekend:

Dogs v Dees - definitely want dees to win as they are way behind us and dogs flying. But we are 6 points clear of the dogs so if we drop behind them we have stuffed up the end of our season anyway and will struggle. DEES 4/10 care factor, occasional umpire complaint

Cats v Crows - massively behind the crows, cats could still easily overtake us. but fat chance the crows will do much. Still no Rankine to. CROWS 10/10 care factor, until they concede the first goal then just watch something else and shake your head each time you check the score on your phone

Pies v Blues - torn on this one. Loss for blues great for our top 4 chances. But a win for the pies keeps their season alive which we do NOT want come round 23. So i am saying JUST HOPE THEY BELT THE CRAP OUT OF EACH OTHER AND THEN DRAW

Port v Swans - get your swans flags out. a loss for port would make it very hard for them to get top 4 given their draw BLOODS 10/10 he's just ken, anywhere else he'd be a ten

Giants v hawks - honestly the hawks scare me. very wary of them getting on a role. and giants the sort of side if they lose this to come out snarling the week after and knock us off. AND YET they are very close to us on the ladder. Therefore i am saying GIANTS (for a narrow and unconvincing win)5/10 care factor, check the injuries list in the match report before deciding on mood

Bombers v dockers - another one where you will need to borrow a scarfe, this time an essendon one. throw it in the bin once they concede 8 goals in a row. bonus is if their season dies off round 24 they will be very flat DONS 10/10 but keeping our hopes in check

 

[braddsey]

Hawthorn board would be feeling pretty good about ditching Clarkson for Mitchell right now

Probably wishing they’d done it a year earlier.

 

[Elixuh]

Looking at where we are and the fixtures remaining

Fixture analysis: Pies, Bombers face brutal runs in finals chase

Check out how difficult your team's run home is

www.afl.com.au

I would say if we win 3/4, IF! we are a decent chance still to finish top 2. The main dangers would be cats winning all of their remaining games (hardest is away v freo) or Freo percentage toppling ours.

The barracking index for this weekend:

Dogs v Dees - definitely want dees to win as they are way behind us and dogs flying. But we are 6 points clear of the dogs so if we drop behind them we have stuffed up the end of our season anyway and will struggle. DEES 4/10 care factor, occasional umpire complaint

Cats v Crows - massively behind the crows, cats could still easily overtake us. but fat chance the crows will do much. Still no Rankine to. CROWS 10/10 care factor, until they concede the first goal then just watch something else and shake your head each time you check the score on your phone

Pies v Blues - torn on this one. Loss for blues great for our top 4 chances. But a win for the pies keeps their season alive which we do NOT want come round 23. So i am saying JUST HOPE THEY BELT THE CRAP OUT OF EACH OTHER AND THEN DRAW

Port v Swans - get your swans flags out. a loss for port would make it very hard for them to get top 4 given their draw BLOODS 10/10 he's just ken, anywhere else he'd be a ten

Giants v hawks - honestly the hawks scare me. very wary of them getting on a role. and giants the sort of side if they lose this to come out snarling the week after and knock us off. AND YET they are very close to us on the ladder. Therefore i am saying GIANTS (for a narrow and unconvincing win)5/10 care factor, check the injuries list in the match report before deciding on mood

Bombers v dockers - another one where you will need to borrow a scarfe, this time an essendon one. throw it in the bin once they concede 8 goals in a row. bonus is if their season dies off round 24 they will be very flat DONS 10/10 but keeping our hopes in check

lol good preview.

Imo crows are borderline to completely collapse for the rest of the season. They looked an absolute rabble against Hawthorn.

Bombers will lose to Freo by about 100

 

[braddsey]

Looking at where we are and the fixtures remaining

Fixture analysis: Pies, Bombers face brutal runs in finals chase

Check out how difficult your team's run home is

www.afl.com.au

I would say if we win 3/4, IF! we are a decent chance still to finish top 2. The main dangers would be cats winning all of their remaining games (hardest is away v freo) or Freo percentage toppling ours.

Great barracking list of this week.

That aside, whichever team positioned 2-7 that holds their nerve and wins all 4 remaining games goes top-2. Our additional 2 points gives us a tiny breathing space of we drop 1 to stay above the chasing pack - particularly the 'dogs who have a similar percentage... and we may need it. Their final 4 matches: Melbourne (Marvel), Adelaide (Adelaide), North Melbourne (Marvel), GWS (Ballarat).

 

[twhowler]

lol good preview.

Imo crows are borderline to completely collapse for the rest of the season. They looked an absolute rabble against Hawthorn.

Bombers will lose to Freo by about 100

yeah they looked good in patches v the hawks but really dropped their bundle. did look ominous

they get rankine back for the bulldogs game in round 22, nicks could be coaching for his future so maybe that will give them a bit of a lift?

Freo look good don't they. Serong is a beast. Good key forwards. But they love an occasional shocker the dock workers!

 

[mpal6]

Great barracking list of this week.

That aside, whichever team positioned 2-7 that holds their nerve and wins all 4 remaining games goes top-2. Our additional 2 points gives us a tiny breathing space of we drop 1 to stay above the chasing pack - particularly the 'dogs who have a similar percentage... and we may need it. Their final 4 matches: Melbourne (Marvel), Adelaide (Adelaide), North Melbourne (Marvel), GWS (Ballarat).

Such an Amazing season. This late and still can't predict with confidence who'll do what.

Melbourne could snap out of its slumber and do a number on Dogs too. Dogs are coming off an interstate game and have a 5 day turnaround so anything's possible. It's a crazy season.

 

[twhowler]

Great barracking list of this week.

That aside, whichever team positioned 2-7 that holds their nerve and wins all 4 remaining games goes top-2. Our additional 2 points gives us a tiny breathing space of we drop 1 to stay above the chasing pack - particularly the 'dogs who have a similar percentage... and we may need it. Their final 4 matches: Melbourne (Marvel), Adelaide (Adelaide), North Melbourne (Marvel), GWS (Ballarat).

yep that draw could end up being all that saves us being above the dogs for sure.

handy to have 6 point break on the two hottest chaser, hawks and dogs. if either of them were 2 points away i'd be a lot more nervous.

it's amazing we got back to second by round 20 - it took until round 21 last year! The downside is now we have something to lose. we were pretty shaky in the last few rounds last year. probably not dissimilar to how we have been since the port win this year.

We have basically entered the final chapter for the home and away season. Phase 1 - the fall. Phase 2 - the climb back. Phase 3 - the final lap. Still time to storm in to favouritism or throw it all away.

i think it's that close gf loss, i can't remember being more stressed in a season!

 

[braddsey]

Such an Amazing season. This late and still can't predict with confidence who'll do what.

Melbourne could snap out of its slumber and do a number on Dogs too. Dogs are coming off an interstate game and have a 5 day turnaround so anything's possible. It's a crazy season.

yep that draw could end up being all that saves us being above the dogs for sure.

handy to have 6 point break on the two hottest chaser, hawks and dogs. if either of them were 2 points away i'd be a lot more nervous.

it's amazing we got back to second by round 20 - it took until round 21 last year! The downside is now we have something to lose. we were pretty shaky in the last few rounds last year. probably not dissimilar to how we have been since the port win this year.

We have basically entered the final chapter for the home and away season. Phase 1 - the fall. Phase 2 - the climb back. Phase 3 - the final lap. Still time to storm in to favouritism or throw it all away.

i think it's that close gf loss, i can't remember being more stressed in a season!

Best season on record - no easy games, and no let-up.

Of our remaining 4 games, this week against the Saints gives me most cause for concern. People don't like Ross Lyon, but he can coach. The game is at Marvel, and the Saints are arguably the form team of the bottom half of the ladder. Since we played them, they lost to Port by 2 points, beat Sydney by 2 points, a bad loss to Adelaide, then thumping wins over West Coast and Essendon.
I'm confident we can beat both GWS and Essendon at home (though GWS will be a hard game).
...and we have Collingwood at the MCG. I'm confident we can handle this - unless the Pies play themselves into form against Carlton and Sydney, but realistically the Pies season will be over by the time we face them. They're currently a game and ~20% out of the 8.

 

[twhowler]

Best season on record - no easy games, and no let-up.

Of our remaining 4 games, this week against the Saints gives me most cause for concern. People don't like Ross Lyon, but he can coach. The game is at Marvel, and the Saints are arguably the form team of the bottom half of the ladder. Since we played them, they lost to Port by 2 points, beat Sydney by 2 points, a bad loss to Adelaide, then thumping wins over West Coast and Essendon.
I'm confident we can beat both GWS and Essendon at home (though GWS will be a hard game).
...and we have Collingwood at the MCG. I'm confident we can handle this - unless the Pies play themselves into form against Carlton and Sydney, but realistically the Pies season will be over by the time we face them. They're currently a game and ~20% out of the 8.

Games at this time of year depend SO MUCH on oppo mindset.

if the pies are out of contention they will definitely be flat and crowd smaller

if dons are out of it they really will have nothing to play for

Saints are done BUT doing what some teams do late - playing with freedom, releasing the shackles, scoring well, playing for next year.

Giants will be the toughest because A they are the best side we play B they are in contention C they travel very well

Incidentally, as it stands we have been very lucky with our draw

Double ups - Giants (5th) Dees (11th) Pies (12th) suns (13th) saints (14th) crows (15th)

The two gabba losses at the start of the year are the losses that hurt the most in hindsight. Carlton had a LOT of injuries and of course being 46 up. Pies were going horribly, we had our bad start, blitzed them, then disappeared.

The rest of our losses are pretty explicable - cats when it was a tsunami, freo away are good, hawks flying at away, giants were going pretty well and we kicked ourselves out of it by half time.

 

[braddsey]

Incidentally, as it stands we have been very lucky with our draw

Double ups - Giants (5th) Dees (11th) Pies (12th) suns (13th) saints (14th) crows (15th)

The two gabba losses at the start of the year are the losses that hurt the most in hindsight. Carlton had a LOT of injuries and of course being 46 up. Pies were going horribly, we had our bad start, blitzed them, then disappeared.

Our double ups based on 2023 ladder look more challenging, but you're right, we have got lucky with the teams that have dropped off:
Giants - 2023 7th to 2024 5th (lost 2023 prelim by a point and have continued that form)
Dees - 4th to 10th (2023 out in straight sets and have continued that form!)
Pies - 1st to 12th (one feels that pinched one in 2023 )
Suns - 15th to 13th (our geographical gift)
Saints - 6th to 14th
Crows - 10th to 15th


The early loss to Carlton hurts the most 1 point, and this shook the foundation.
I can accept the loss to Collingwood - they were still 2023 premiers at that stage and suffering the same as we were with the short off-season.
I actually find the Geelong loss pretty hard to take. Getting hit with that weather was crazy (the self-inflicted inability to adapt to the conditions), and then a 5-day turnaround to GWS away after the slog in the wet.

 

[McIvor]

How funny by Hardwick

 

[McIvor]

A lot of clubs are participating in Retro Round this week (here’s a sample); any idea what we’re doing?









Whilst Pies have a special jumper for Pendlebury’s 400th, perhaps we’re doing an RL200 jumper?