Non Lions Discussion 2024

[p4p1]

With the extra bye, this may also be the year where 2 clubs from 5 to 8 actually make the grand final. Hope one of them is us !

Personally, I preferred the pre GF bye that we had in Perth. Both teams earn their spot. It also gives enough time for any players concussed in in PFs time to be cleared by the Dr to play on the big day, and have both teams at their best.

PF is normally when all the state GFs are on so if they were pushed back a week to line up with the AFL schedule they have a chance of getting a bit more exposure and hopefully turning more of a profit.

 

[braddsey]

Yeah but those top 8 teams that we lost to also have a win, so if you break down all of the games the top 8 played against each other then it is an even split of 50/50 winners. IE 50% of the time one team has lost and 50% of the time a team won.

For reference Kingy ran with that, it's not the top 8 teams all having a 50/50 record against each other he was speaking about, but how amazing it is that all teams in the top 8 have an even split of 50/50 when playing each other.

Embarrassing if Kingy ran with it... of course there's a 50/50 split because each game has a winner and a loser! It's not a stat, just a reality that there's always a winner and a loser (or a draw with is the ultimate 50/50).

Because I'm a bit of a nerd, I did the ladder considering only top-8 teams playing each other. I'm sure this exists somewhere already, but I didn't find it (and I didn't look too hard). Obviously due to the inequities in our fixture (ie. double ups) it's not conclusive, but patterns do appear - and not great for the Lions. The ladder below is sorted by win % rather than ladder points.

As a Lions supporter we can argue:

• There's teams not in the finals because we beat them twice (except Collingwood!).
• We had the least number of games against top-8 sides, so didn't have as many opportunities to win.
• Our percentage: 100%, which matches our finishing position on the ladder (if sorting the ladder by %).

Ladder Pos	Team	Played	Win	Loss	Points	For	Against	%	Win %	Double ups vs 8
1​	Sydney	9​	6​	3​	24​	810​	735​	110.20%​	200%​	GWS,WB
2​	Port Adelaide	8​	5​	3​	20​	705​	661​	106.66%​	167%​	Carl
4​	GWS	11​	6​	5​	24​	910​	906​	100.44%​	120%​	Syd,BL,Haw,Carl
3​	Geelong	10​	5​	5​	20​	866​	886​	97.74%​	100%​	Hawthorn,WB
7​	WB	9​	4​	5​	16​	747​	736​	101.49%​	80%​	Syd,Geel
6​	Hawthorn	9​	4​	5​	16​	727​	781​	93.09%​	80%​	Geel,GWS
8​	Carlton	10​	4​	6​	16​	911​	971​	93.82%​	67%​	PA,Geel,GWS
5​	Brisbane Lions	8​	3​	5​	12​	665​	665​	100.00%​	60%​	GWS

 

[Dalions]

Personally, I preferred the pre GF bye that we had in Perth. Both teams earn their spot. It also gives enough time for any players concussed in in PFs time to be cleared by the Dr to play on the big day, and have both teams at their best.

PF is normally when all the state GFs are on so if they were pushed back a week to line up with the AFL schedule they have a chance of getting a bit more exposure and hopefully turning more of a profit.

I am ok with this idea but with the way that the AFL is played these days and the fact that the comp is so close the Aflpa would demand a second bye throughout the season.
But with the AFL thinking of bringing in a Wild Card Round I am not sure how it would happen.

 

[braddsey]

I am ok with this idea but with the way that the AFL is played these days and the fact that the comp is so close the Aflpa would demand a second bye throughout the season.
But with the AFL thinking of bringing in a Wild Card Round I am not sure how it would happen.

I like the idea of taking away the pre finals bye, and adding in the pre-GF bye, but agree if they put in the wild-card round then it's too big advantage football for the top teams - they'd basically go: Round 24, Bye, QF, Bye, PF, Bye, GF. I think adding the pre-finals bye has given too much advantage to the top teams in terms of resting players vs any opposition. The risk of a GF blowout is huge if a lower team does manage to win through (even a team that lost the first QF).

If the AFL is set on a wild-card round (which basically makes the finals a top-10 instead of top-8), then put some effort in to reconfigure the finals series. Still give an advantage to the top-2 finishers.

 

[McIvor]

You can't make this stuff up with the continued biases by the VFL, MRO and Michael Christian

 

[Nathan Barley]

Looked worse than the one Hipwood got a week for

 

[McIvor]

No doubt Owies will be let off too.

 

[dlanod]

Looked worse than the one Hipwood got a week for

Or the Ash one last week.

Spin the MRO Wheel!

 

[KissKiss]

Thats a handy finals discount for sure. Lack of potential to cause harm in that assessment

 

[Perrip]

You can't make this stuff up with the continued biases by the VFL, MRO and Michael Christian

Pretty easy to explain that it's just the normal finals tax being applied.

****ed that they've let this slide considering the action/outcome though.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Or the Ash one last week.

Spin the MRO Wheel!

Giants must be fuming.

 

[McIvor]

Surprised Bombers delisted Hind; admittedly haven't watched Bombers a great deal but when I did earlier in the season, he looked alright, definitely got some wheels on him.

 

[KissKiss]

Yeah someone should look at Hind. Always looked a decent option and looks fine at this level

 

[McIvor]

Yeah someone should look at Hind. Always looked a decent option and looks fine at this level

I know they play different positions but I’d have Hind on a list in place of a number of guys on our list; Sharp, Madden etc but I can’t see a club not picking him up…not saying ours but another club

 

[Grasshopper17]

No changes to the seeds in the end, altho for a short while there on Sunday it looked like Hawthorn would be barnstorming their way in!

#1 - Sydney 129% (#1 in attack, #3 in defence - up 3)

#2 - Western Bulldogs 128% (#3 in attack, #1 in defence - up 2)

#3 - Brisbane 125% (#2 in attack, #7 in defence - up 1)

#4 - Greater Western Sydney 116% (#6 in attack, #8 in defence - down 1)

Carlton finally drop out of the seeds in attack. Maybe a bit unlucky, but the model does not take injuries into account. They drop to #5 here. 106%, #9 overall and still #13 (up 1) in defence. They're replaced by Geelong at #4 - 109%, #7 overall and #12 defensively.

On the defence side, St Kilda drop back to #2. 95%, #13 (up 1) overall and #15 (up 2! ) in attack.

Hawthorn drop out of the defensive seeds, after eventually letting a pretty ordinary Richmond team put 68 past them. Back to #5 (down 3) for defence, 111%, #6 (down 1) overall and #10 (down 1) in attack. They're replaced by Melbourne who sneak into #4. 105%, #10 overall, #13 in attack.

The model has us beating Essendon (#15 overall, 91%, #11 in attack and #15 defensively) by 30 points.

Giving the seeds a break this week, but I thought it was worthwhile now that the dust has settled on the regular season, who turned out to have the toughest and easiest draws through 24 rounds.



Toughest Draw - Adelaide. Played each of the top 3 teams twice! As well us of course who finished 5th, and Hawthorn who finished 7th. Rounded out that set with Essendon. 5 of the top 7 teams is a tall order.

#2 - GWS. Great effort to finish 4th despite their draw. Repeat matchups against Sydney, us, the Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton. 5 of the top 8, plus Gold Coast.

#3 - Collingwood. Repeat matchups against Sydney, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Carlton. So 4 of the top 8, plus Essendon and Melbourne.

#4 - Western Bulldogs. Repeat matchups against Sydney, Geelong and the Giants. So 3 of the top 4, plus Freo (who finished #6 in my seedings), Melbourne and North.



Easiest Draw - Gold Coast. Bit ordinary to only manage an 11-12 record despite repeat matchups against all of the bottom 3 teams, as well as Essendon, who I ranked #14 in the seeds. Also played Brisbane and the Giants twice.

#2 - Hawthorn. Took full advantage of their bottom 6 draw, by playing North and Richmond twice. Also drew GWS, Geelong, Adelaide and Collingwood twice.

#3 - Carlton. Slid badly late in the season despite a pretty straightforward draw. Like Hawthorn, repeat matchups against North and Richmond. Also drew GWS, Geelong, Collingwood and Port twice.

#4 - Port Adelaide. On the flipside, their draw was pretty easy for most of the season but they had a tougher draw towards the end of the season and pulled through it impressively. Played Melbourne, Freo, St Kilda, Adelaide, Carlton and Richmond twice.

 

[McIvor]

Giving the seeds a break this week, but I thought it was worthwhile now that the dust has settled on the regular season, who turned out to have the toughest and easiest draws through 24 rounds.



Toughest Draw - Adelaide. Played each of the top 3 teams twice! As well us of course who finished 5th, and Hawthorn who finished 7th. Rounded out that set with Essendon. 5 of the top 7 teams is a tall order.

#2 - GWS. Great effort to finish 4th despite their draw. Repeat matchups against Sydney, us, the Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton. 5 of the top 8, plus Gold Coast.

#3 - Collingwood. Repeat matchups against Sydney, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Carlton. So 4 of the top 8, plus Essendon and Melbourne.

#4 - Western Bulldogs. Repeat matchups against Sydney, Geelong and the Giants. So 3 of the top 4, plus Freo (who finished #6 in my seedings), Melbourne and North.



Easiest Draw - Gold Coast. Bit ordinary to only manage an 11-12 record despite repeat matchups against all of the bottom 3 teams, as well as Essendon, who I ranked #14 in the seeds. Also played Brisbane and the Giants twice.

#2 - Hawthorn. Took full advantage of their bottom 6 draw, by playing North and Richmond twice. Also drew GWS, Geelong, Adelaide and Collingwood twice.

#3 - Carlton. Slid badly late in the season despite a pretty straightforward draw. Like Hawthorn, repeat matchups against North and Richmond. Also drew GWS, Geelong, Collingwood and Port twice.

#4 - Port Adelaide. On the flipside, their draw was pretty easy for most of the season but they had a tougher draw towards the end of the season and pulled through it impressively. Played Melbourne, Freo, St Kilda, Adelaide, Carlton and Richmond twice.

Where did the Lions draw rank when you were doing your analysis?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Where did the Lions draw rank when you were doing your analysis?

Good question... meant to include that above.

I had us with the 6th hardest draw, sandwiched in between Melbourne at #5 and Sydney at #7.

Our repeat matchup against GWS was the only top 8 team, and we also had Collingwood, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Melbourne as well as Adelaide. So none of the bottom 3.

 

[McIvor]

Browny adamant Petracca has asked to be traded in his exit / end of season meeting today.



Carlton would have a hell of a midfield if he joined them and could propel them to a flag. They’d be mad not to make it happen.

 

[McIvor]

 

[p4p1]

Very interesting, the last points of why Trac wants to leave after the first two were horse shit though.

 

[BRAB]

Imagine how much Carlton would bully people in the midfield with trac in there as well. No thanks

 

[briztoon]

Matthew Lloyd saying at the end that he has spoken with other Melbourne players who believe it's best if Petracca moves on.

Bit of a risky move if Petracca doesn't come back the same player.

 

[McIvor]

Imagine how much Carlton would bully people in the midfield with trac in there as well. No thanks

With a midfield of Cripps, Walsh and Petracca they’d be formidable and I think would or should ensure a premiership. Obviously Dee’s would ask for McKay (not sure you’d be putting your hand up if you’re Harry tho) and another decent player (someone like Cerra maybe) to even entertain it.

I just don’t see how Petracca stays now though

 

[Tom14]

With a midfield of Cripps, Walsh and Petracca they’d be formidable and I think would or should ensure a premiership. Obviously Dee’s would ask for McKay (not sure you’d be putting your hand up if you’re Harry tho) and another decent player (someone like Cerra maybe) to even entertain it.

I just don’t see how Petracca stays now though

McKay's a B+/A- key forward imo and Cerra's hamstrings explode whenever he breaks out of a light jog. If McKay's goalkicking regresses he's barely a b+ grade key forward. I can't see what Carlton or any other team could offer for petracca that could even remotely get melbourne to consider it.

Players being annoyed that Petracca is focused on personal branding is pretty silly imo - Judd probably bored the carlton dressing room to death crapping on about his "business" acumen.

My list of players I wouldn't trade for petracca is very small, basically guys I think are/can be as good as him and are a lot younger + Bont - N Daicos, JHF, C. Warner (maybe), Gulden (maybe). Harley Reid and Sheezel would be the other ones who I see as having that sort of ceiling but a long long way to go before they get there.

 

[Perrip]

I can't see what Carlton or any other team could offer for petracca that could even remotely get melbourne to consider it.

The only way this trade gets done this year is if a club gives up one of their own star players to snag him.