Club Focus North Melbourne 2024

[Ticky009]

Spreadsheet created by Lore and Taylor, using data from footywire and AFL Tables. Version above maintained by giantroo.

Spoiler: footywire version

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

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[THE_GUN]

8 wins is borderline bottom 3

Not every year

 

[LB2Snake]

Yeah i get what your saying

But barring injuries

Pick 1 already gone again, just thinking that with two early picks this year, your side could be pretty much set

Hey BIGHAWK23 why’s pick 1 gone again?

 

[LB2Snake]

Would North accept 10,11 for 2?
Or would that deal be unacceptable to either party?

Hope we wouldn’t. That’s terrible for North IMO

 

[4tune8]

Hope we wouldn’t. That’s terrible for North IMO

I'd argue that it's worse for the Tigers

 

[LB2Snake]

I'd argue that it's worse for the Tigers

Ok. Why? You going to say this draft is so even? I don’t think it is, well not right up the top it’s not.
Hypothetically, would you take 7+8 for pick 1?

 

[4tune8]

Ok. Why? You going to say this draft is so even? I don’t think it is, well not right up the top it’s not.
Hypothetically, would you take 7+8 for pick 1?

There's a number of factors here.

10 & 11 are at the sweet spot where the 2nd tier of players come into consideration, on top of that, there are going to be sliders from the top tier, whether that's because some teams might take talls with their 2nd pick (Saints, Dees) or whether North manage to strike a deal and take a tall too. The 2 picks together offer a lot of flexibility, one, take a slider, two, take the best next player.

Foregoing that opportunity is costly and in my mind that opportunity cost is not worth a shot at pick 2.

I understand that 10 & 11 would be outside North's preferred range putting at risk the acquisition of Tauru or Armstrong, they could both be gone, but that scenario would mean that there's a highly rated mid left on the board, hence why we'd want to keep 10.

Your hypothetical is basically irrelevant, having a chance at getting the player that's number 1 on your board is way different to who'd you be picking at 7, besides, there's no reason for the Tigers to split and gain more picks, we're drowning in them already.

Remember that North need to split pick 2, we don't need to split pick 1

 

[Rich01]

Ok. Why? You going to say this draft is so even? I don’t think it is, well not right up the top it’s not.
Hypothetically, would you take 7+8 for pick 1?

Yep.

Adding Tauru and Armstrong over Lalor would be a calculated punt, but setting the forward line up for the next decade would be pretty amazing.

Wouldn’t think the saints would do it though.
Too much quality at those picks still.

 

[LB2Snake]

There's a number of factors here.

10 & 11 are at the sweet spot where the 2nd tier of players come into consideration, on top of that, there are going to be sliders from the top tier, whether that's because some teams might take talls with their 2nd pick (Saints, Dees) or whether North manage to strike a deal and take a tall too. The 2 picks together offer a lot of flexibility, one, take a slider, two, take the best next player.

Foregoing that opportunity is costly and in my mind that opportunity cost is not worth a shot at pick 2.

I understand that 10 & 11 would be outside North's preferred range putting at risk the acquisition of Tauru or Armstrong, they could both be gone, but that scenario would mean that there's a highly rated mid left on the board, hence why we'd want to keep 10.

Your hypothetical is basically irrelevant, having a chance at getting the player that's number 1 on your board is way different to who'd you be picking at 7, besides, there's no reason for the Tigers to split and gain more picks, we're drowning in them already.

Remember that North need to split pick 2, we don't need to split pick 1

All good points, understood. I personally see a gap between the top 4 and the rest. But it’s all opinion.
What’s this “remember that North need to split?” ……..When has north stated that?
We kinda don’t “need” to do anything mate. We are interested if it suits us, by the sounds of it.
I love how everything the media says is gospel and what our recruiting bloke says is taken with a grain of salt.
We clearly would like more KP talent, hence trying to trade in our F1 or move back a couple of spots. But we are a long way from a finished product as a team and still need more talent running around for us. Look at teams like Brisbane, they are completely stacked with talented players everywhere.

I mentioned the 7+8 for 1 as we have the next pick and there is no way you would do 7+8 for 1……but 2 is worth not very much because we need to move it…….its pretty ridiculous logic.
We moved stuff around 2 years ago so we could guarantee we could get sheezel and Wardlaw together. Which looks like not a bad plan in hindsight.
To me that’s a great reason for Tigers to be trying to do the same rather than enter the lottery of who goes where and who slides etc etc.
Anyway, what will be will be. I’m a massive FOS and Lalor fan, think one of them will be epic in a North jumper. We can end up with a teens pick through future trading and bring in a Whitlock/Shanahan or even a Trainor type.
The last line of your post reads a bit like we will implode if don’t trade 2…….I reckon we’ll be all right.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Hey BIGHAWK23 why’s pick 1 gone again?

If the best player was Uwland (similar situation to Ashcroft this year)

 

[LB2Snake]

If the best player was Uwland (similar situation to Ashcroft this year)

There’s some rippers at the top next year though. Tyler Welsh was gunna be a top 10 this time last year, as was moraez(?) and I’m sure others.
Lalor was a top 30 prospect. Lots of stuff changes.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

There’s some rippers at the top next year though. Tyler Welsh was gunna be a top 10 this time last year, as was moraez(?) and I’m sure others.
Lalor was a top 30 prospect. Lots of stuff changes.

Of course

Just projecting

 

[LB2Snake]

Of course

Just projecting

It’s kind of the same thing that’s happening this year. There will be plenty of busts from this draft too. Plenty of DGB’s and Stephenson’s that never live up to the hype.

 

[4tune8]

All good points, understood. I personally see a gap between the top 4 and the rest. But it’s all opinion.
What’s this “remember that North need to split?” ……..When has north stated that?
We kinda don’t “need” to do anything mate. We are interested if it suits us, by the sounds of it.
I love how everything the media says is gospel and what our recruiting bloke says is taken with a grain of salt.
We clearly would like more KP talent, hence trying to trade in our F1 or move back a couple of spots. But we are a long way from a finished product as a team and still need more talent running around for us. Look at teams like Brisbane, they are completely stacked with talented players everywhere.

I mentioned the 7+8 for 1 as we have the next pick and there is no way you would do 7+8 for 1……but 2 is worth not very much because we need to move it…….its pretty ridiculous logic.
We moved stuff around 2 years ago so we could guarantee we could get sheezel and Wardlaw together. Which looks like not a bad plan in hindsight.
To me that’s a great reason for Tigers to be trying to do the same rather than enter the lottery of who goes where and who slides etc etc.
Anyway, what will be will be. I’m a massive FOS and Lalor fan, think one of them will be epic in a North jumper. We can end up with a teens pick through future trading and bring in a Whitlock/Shanahan or even a Trainor type.
The last line of your post reads a bit like we will implode if don’t trade 2…….I reckon we’ll be all right.

So tell me then what's North's ideal scenario for dealing with pick 2?

The straw man argument of comparing picks one and two is irrelevant in this convo.

I assume that your top 4, like everyone else's, is Lalor, FOS, Jagga, Draper? I would think that Smillie has a good case to be ranked here along with Langford (ignoring Ashcroft) so....

Lalor-Tigers
FOS-? (depends on pick trades)
Draper-Blues
Jagga-Crows
Smillie-Dees
Langford-Tigers

Obviously not set in stone as those last 3 could be any combination, basically the Tigers could have one of Jagga, Smillie or Langford at pick 6. Any of those guys paired with Lalor is a win in my book, much like what you're saying with the Sheezel and Wardlaw maneuver.

Yes, FOS would be a 'nice to have' but not a 'must have' particularly when you factor in the loss of another first round pick, wherever that might fall.

My answer to your post did imply that North's preference was to split pick 2, not that you're desperate to do so, but more that it would benefit the club by being able to target first round picks on a needs basis rather than a 'best available' basis. Splitting 2 gives 2 x 1st rounders plus the option of using the F1 to get another. That to me looks like the logical thing to do.

Now to find the trading partners to make it happen.

 

[LB2Snake]

So tell me then what's North's ideal scenario for dealing with pick 2?

The straw man argument of comparing picks one and two is irrelevant in this convo.

I assume that your top 4, like everyone else's, is Lalor, FOS, Jagga, Draper? I would think that Smillie has a good case to be ranked here along with Langford (ignoring Ashcroft) so....

Lalor-Tigers
FOS-? (depends on pick trades)
Draper-Blues
Jagga-Crows
Smillie-Dees
Langford-Tigers

Obviously not set in stone as those last 3 could be any combination, basically the Tigers could have one of Jagga, Smillie or Langford at pick 6. Any of those guys paired with Lalor is a win in my book, much like what you're saying with the Sheezel and Wardlaw maneuver.

Yes, FOS would be a 'nice to have' but not a 'must have' particularly when you factor in the loss of another first round pick, wherever that might fall.

My answer to your post did imply that North's preference was to split pick 2, not that you're desperate to do so, but more that it would benefit the club by being able to target first round picks on a needs basis rather than a 'best available' basis. Splitting 2 gives 2 x 1st rounders plus the option of using the F1 to get another. That to me looks like the logical thing to do.

Now to find the trading partners to make it happen.

Might be off track here, but:
Pretty confident my posts to you aren’t as arrogant as yours are to me, but that’s ok…..”straw man”…...FFS. Or am I misreading that ?
Feels condescending to me.

Anyway.
Unless you are in the Richmond recruiting department, you don’t really know and it’s all opinion. So I assumed we were discussing what we thought could happen. I don’t need to convince you of anything. Ditto in reverse. It’s interesting though.

“Remember that North need to split pick 2, we don't need to split pick 1” ….was what you wrote mate.


We don’t need to do anything and neither do the tigers, but clearly both clubs were looking at the option. Sounds like the clubs couldn’t agree, but we don’t really know.
Or do you think that was just North being desperate for a trading partner? I don’t think so, but maybe you disagree.

I wouldn’t put Langford and Smillie in the top bracket. But that’s me.

 

[SnowRoo]

I wonder if they will give us a deal to split their pick 2 that's too good to refuse before next Friday or will they just wait until live trading on draft night

Don't think it's North that need to offer the too good to refuse deal, actually think its the opposite.

The top 3 all have huge claims to be No.1 pick.

Its more which of the 3 do the Tigers want to miss out on.

Leaving Jagga with his 40 and 50 possession games on the table will hurt.

Knowing you could have had Lalor dusty and passed would sting.

After seeing FOS adapt so well to VFL and understanding his upside letting him go is a huge risk.

The Tigers basically could have the equivalent of 2 No.1 picks.

Perhaps im in the minority but I'd love us to keep 2 and take one of those 3. First 30+ touch games from Jagga and we will forget all about a project tall.

 

[tiger_tough]

Don't think it's North that need to offer the too good to refuse deal, actually think its the opposite.

The top 3 all have huge claims to be No.1 pick.

Its more which of the 3 do the Tigers want to miss out on.

Leaving Jagga with his 40 and 50 possession games on the table will hurt.

Knowing you could have had Lalor dusty and passed would sting.

After seeing FOS adapt so well to VFL and understanding his upside letting him go is a huge risk.

The Tigers basically could have the equivalent of 2 No.1 picks.

Perhaps im in the minority but I'd love us to keep 2 and take one of those 3. First 30+ touch games from Jagga and we will forget all about a project tall.

Nah, we'd be pretty content with the 7 first rounders as they are.

North on the other hand need another one....

 

[SnowRoo]

Nah, we'd be pretty content with the 7 first rounders as they are.

North on the other hand need another one....

Not really, I think they like Armstrong/Tauru/Trainor. But don't see them as a huge need.

I am against giving up any of Lalor, Jagga, Fos perhaps even Draper for 1 of the tall projects plus a later spec pick.

Our tall stocks aren't too bad and for mine a Jagga or Lalor would do wonders for us.

 

[LB2Snake]

Not really, I think they like Armstrong/Tauru/Trainor. But don't see them as a huge need.

I am against giving up any of Lalor, Jagga, Fos perhaps even Draper for 1 of the tall projects plus a later spec pick.

Our tall stocks aren't too bad and for mine a Jagga or Lalor would do wonders for us.

After watching Jagga highlights again last night I am getting a tad FOMO if a north don’t take him. He’s a slippery customer around the stoppage, wins the footy and he’s off, delivers the footy and he’s still quickly into position for the next possession.
Always thought we’d end up with FOS, but this bloke gunna rack up 30+ every week at a minimum it feels like.

 

[Wild Bill]

Don't think it's North that need to offer the too good to refuse deal, actually think its the opposite.

The top 3 all have huge claims to be No.1 pick.

Its more which of the 3 do the Tigers want to miss out on.

Leaving Jagga with his 40 and 50 possession games on the table will hurt.

Knowing you could have had Lalor dusty and passed would sting.

After seeing FOS adapt so well to VFL and understanding his upside letting him go is a huge risk.

The Tigers basically could have the equivalent of 2 No.1 picks.

Perhaps im in the minority but I'd love us to keep 2 and take one of those 3. First 30+ touch games from Jagga and we will forget all about a project tall.

I'm with you on keeping 2 - play the odds - history has shown that pick 2 is so much better than anything you get dropping back.

 

[Wild Bill]

Nah, we'd be pretty content with the 7 first rounders as they are.

North on the other hand need another one....

Why - we have so many over the last few years - I would prefer quality over quantity.

Once you get out of the top 4 picks the chances of the player being a bust goes through the roof.

 

[tiger_tough]

Why - we have so many over the last few years - I would prefer quality over quantity.

Once you get out of the top 4 picks the chances of the player being a bust goes through the roof.

not this year

 

[Wild Bill]

not this year

So this is the 1st year in the history of the draft that later picks are as good as the early ones??

I would be praying for that as well is I was in the Tigers position. Odds are - you're wrong.

 

[tiger_tough]

So this is the 1st year in the history of the draft that later picks are as good as the early ones??

I would be praying for that as well is I was in the Tigers position. Odds are - you're wrong.

No, no one said that. What's with you dramatic North supporters?

 

[smurfin]

My personal view, from Tigers perspective, is that there is not a lot of difference between getting a second player out of FOS/Lalor/Smith at pick 2 than getting Smillie/Langford at pick 6. So I would not be looking at involving pick 6 in a trade.
However, who knows what the recruitment team are thinking - are they set on a specific dynamic duo?

What about the possibilities of trading 10 & 11 for pick 2 while keeping pick 6?
It means missing on 2 of (for example) Travaglia, Lindsay, Armstrong, Berry for a second player out of FOS/Lalor/Smith and still getting Smilie/Langford.
That is definitely worth considering, especially if players like Berry, Hotton, Shanahan are a reasonable chance to be available at our pick 18 and are viewed close enough quality to those available at 10.

Would that also be attractive to North? Picks 10 & 11 instead of pick 2?
Would North prefer one of FOS/Lalor/Smith/Draper or two of Travaglia, Lindsay, Armstrong, Berry, Tauru, Trainor ?
Or, prefer other options involving trading out future first to get one from each group?

 

[Wild Bill]

No, no one said that. What's with you dramatic North supporters?

Not this year? Is that in relation to draft busts?