October Daily Punt - aka Hartnell v Winx #confirmed

[Aussie Assault]

Do the quaddie approximates seem a bit thin or is just me? Grand Marshall paid $31 ffs

But in answering your question, 1 out Winx would have been hugely popular. And the 1st leg had stuff all horses in it.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Hartnell realy underperformed in my humble. Dont think he liked the track at all.

lost all rhythm cornering. might be the valley, might be he went from travelling to chasing and trying hard. wrong horses back there too he's better than that. wouldn't have won though.

 

[HeathySure]

So Hartnell smashes Jameka in a group 1 and then Jameka goes and whips those Europeans that you are talking about.
Have you put any thought into what you are saying at all?

Remember the Caulfield Cup is a handicap. Jameka would get nowhere near them overseas and they won't even try. The ones that come over are not the top ones. Hartnell is the second best middle distance horse we have. But if he was around 15 years ago he would not win anything decent.

edit. Scottish is a group two winner...

 

[Gavin Excell]

lost all rhythm cornering. might be the valley, might be he went from travelling to chasing and trying hard. wrong horses back there too he's better than that. wouldn't have won though.

His last 200m were quite good actually. Not only holds the filly but draws away a little

 

[Jugada]

Do the quaddie approximates seem a bit thin or is just me? Grand Marshall paid $31 ffs

They look overs to me. He only paid $21 ($18.10 tote)

 

[FallingLiefs]

Remember the Caulfield Cup is a handicap. Jameka would get nowhere near them overseas and they won't even try. The ones that come over are not the top ones. Hartnell is the second best middle distance horse we have. But if he was around 15 years ago he would not win anything decent.

edit. Scottish is a group two winner...

Exospheric is coming off a 4th in a Juddmonte and he had a bigger weight advantage than he would have had at WFA. weight difference in CC 3kg, weight difference in a WFA race 4kg. beat it by 4.

 

[HeathySure]

What drivel

Instead of just scoffing give me a reason why he is better than what I've said? Our breeders don't breed anything that runs past the mile. So our horses that run over 2000m and further haven't got the strength they used to. Anyway this is an argument for another time


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[HeathySure]

Exospheric is coming off a 4th in a Juddmonte and he had a bigger weight advantage than he would have had at WFA. weight difference in CC 3kg, weight difference in a WFA race 4kg. beat it by 4.

Weight for age races and handicaps are completely different races


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[FallingLiefs]

iluvparis

probs wins if Sacred Elixir plays by the rules.

 

[RobbyRoy]

Good tip Paris, nice place collect for Morvado.

 

[rideclutch]

Got that one wrong. Stiff Paris with his million to one pop hope you went each way.

Probably fair to say it didn't quite have the same excitement as the last race

 

[FallingLiefs]

Weight for age races and handicaps are completely different races


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in what way? tempo? not sure theres any difference between our handicaps and euro WFA races.

 

[HeathySure]

in what way? tempo? not sure theres any difference between our handicaps and euro WFA races.

Not so much tempo. Just the quality of the horses in the race. Handicaps tend to have a lot of lower weight horses that can win because of the conditions of the race but would get lapped in a wfa race. Wfa races should be reserved for the best. Northerrly was once beaten by mr trickster cos he gave him 10kgs. But at wfa mr trickster would have been beaten 10 no matter what

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[year of the cat]

Sacred Elixir Derby fav now I'd assume

 

[FallingLiefs]

Carpenter agrees. WBR. interestingly to be WBR she would have to go low 130's which exceeds the cav. California Chrome is still 134 i think? she can't go that high but CC might come down.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Owe you a beer Paris. Had no reason to put Morvado into Tri and Quin other than you for very little outlay.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Not so much tempo. Just the quality of the horses in the race. Handicaps tend to have a lot of lower weight horses that can win because of the conditions of the race but would get lapped in a wfa race. Wfa races should be reserved for the best. Northerrly was once beaten by mr trickster cos he gave him 10kgs. But at wfa mr trickster would have been beaten 10 no matter what

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but when Jameka carries more in a handicap more than she would against Exospheric in a WFA race surely that means Jameka better than him regardless?

 

[HeathySure]

but when Jameka carries more in a handicap more than she would against Exospheric in a WFA race surely that means Jameka better than him regardless?

Well how good is exosphetic. I am not really au fait with overseas racing but i wouls assune he would be a lesser group wfa horse over longer distances? Years ago shaftsbury avenue used to always beat super impose at wfa but then in handicaps shaftsbury avenue couldnt get near super no matter ehat the weight difference.

I know i sound like an old fart which i geneerally dont think that way but there is an old adage, wfa horses for wfa races which has always held me in good stead. I find wfa races easy cos the best horses mostly win.

Also with compressed weights these days the Caulfield and melb cup is more a glorified set wrights and penalty race so the better horses will generally win. I guess exospheric is not th at good? Or the travel?

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[rideclutch]

Couldn't back Hartnell with any confidence in the Cup off that run.

The performance was fine, but you'd have to think he's a massive distance query unless they walk like last year.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Well how good is exosphetic. I am not really au fait with overseas racing but i wouls assune he would be a lesser group wfa horse over longer distances? Years ago shaftsbury avenue used to always beat super impose at wfa but then in handicaps shaftsbury avenue couldnt get near super no matter ehat the weight difference.

I know i sound like an old fart which i geneerally dont think that way but there is an old adage, wfa horses for wfa races which has always held me in good stead. I find wfa races easy cos the best horses mostly win.

Also with compressed weights these days the Caulfield and melb cup is more a glorified set wrights and penalty race so the better horses will generally win. I guess exospheric is not th at good? Or the travel?

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juddmonte is a premier european wfa 2000. it's a cox plate of sorts for the UK. he got beat in it by the worlds best racehorse at the time by 4L who started fave in the arc. it was a huge peak for him but shows it's a horse of reasonable quality.

 

[HeathySure]

juddmonte is a premier european wfa 2000. it's a cox plate of sorts for the UK. he got beat in it by the worlds best racehorse at the time by 4L who started fave in the arc. it was a huge peak for him but shows it's a horse of reasonable quality.

Fair enough but 4 lenghts is a decent margin and he was also on his home ground. Where do you think Jameka would run in that race?

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[FallingLiefs]

Fair enough but 4 lenghts is a decent margin and he was also on his home ground. Where do you think Jameka would run in that race?

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Behind Exo but not too far and it's a notably weak year Internationally but I think Hartnell would stack up and be at least in the market and beating horses like Exo in some of those big races.

 

[HeathySure]

Behind Exo but not too far and it's a notably weak year Internationally but I think Hartnell would stack up and be at least in the market and beating horses like Exo in some of those big races.

I hope they take Hartnell oveeseas so we find out

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[Lebbo73]

Couldn't back Hartnell with any confidence in the Cup off that run.

The performance was fine, but you'd have to think he's a massive distance query unless they walk like last year.

They walk most years in the MC.

 

[TBellicious]

They walk most years in the MC.

If Qewy runs it will be a good tempo