Discussion Official 2021 Fantasy Planning Thread

[WaynesWorld19]

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[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Have done some tinkering

Whitfield down to McDonald
Milera to Cumming

Cunnington up to Treloar

Happy with it. Gone from 2 mid pricers and a premium to 2 premiums and an expensive rookie/ low end mid pricer

Im not sold on McDonald at all. Never been a big scorer and only really scored well for a months block last year from rnd 9-13 (which stil included a 63 in there). Outside of that he still has 10 games scoring 70 or below for the year. Adjust that to 85 and 10 games below 85 for a premo is too many.

 

[Zevon]

Bruised liver? Wtf? That’s the sort of thing I’d use as an excuse for calling in sick to work if I’d had a few too many the night before....

“Sorry boss I can’t come in, I have a bruised liver”... “Yeah yeah ok mate sure you do... sleep off your hangover and we’ll see you tomorrow “ is how I see that conversation going.

Anyway, my misdemeanours aside, surely that’s a line through him to start the year now, even if he does play in the pre season game? An interrupted PS turns me off anybody but when it’s a gut runner like Whitfield then it’s full on panic stations.

 

[JADED]

Liver is a self healing organ if it's not too stuffed.
Will wait and see before culling.
If no Whitfield, I might be able to afford Lloyd.

 

[JDWCE]

Im not sold on McDonald at all. Never been a big scorer and only really scored well for a months block last year from rnd 9-13 (which stil included a 63 in there). Outside of that he still has 10 games scoring 70 or below for the year. Adjust that to 85 and 10 games below 85 for a premo is too many.

Not sure if you're looking at the correct data.

From round 7 last year he averaged an adjusted 110. Huge for a defender. Prior to that he was tagging in the midfield hence the lower scores.

I won't be picking him but certainly see the merit in chasing that value and high scoring

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Not sure if you're looking at the correct data.

From round 7 last year he averaged an adjusted 110. Huge for a defender. Prior to that he was tagging in the midfield hence the lower scores.

I won't be picking him but certainly see the merit in chasing that value and high scoring

His average is largely inflated by 3 big scored of 118, 121 and 123 unadjusted. Outside of that he only had 2 other unadjusted scores over 85.

Adjust his scoring and that’s still only 5 games for the year he’s hit 100 with 3 big scores of 135 plus. Take out his 3 outlier scores and he had an average scoring year.

 

[kozi]

Im not sold on McDonald at all. Never been a big scorer and only really scored well for a months block last year from rnd 9-13 (which stil included a 63 in there). Outside of that he still has 10 games scoring 70 or below for the year. Adjust that to 85 and 10 games below 85 for a premo is too many.

Agree here. Stew for just 40k more looks the better/safer option.

 

[kozi]

Lloyd + Walsh
v
Oliver/Steele + Stew

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Lloyd + Walsh
v
Oliver/Steele + Stew

I currently have Lloyd and Walsh. Think Walsh could be a big mover for the year and will be one to benefit from limit interchanges and Cripps spending some time forward

 

[Dougz]

Not sure if this sort of information has been posted.

https://dailyfantasyrankings.com.au/resources/afl/cba.php

List of CBA % per round & Teams, good little look at both why things happened and possible late season trends.

My take from it -

Sloane Round 13 - 18 back in solid mid rotation
Ave @ 67.6 (84.5) - Had role, lacked scoring probably through previous injuries.

Marshall - Sub 30% for entire back end of season. So much upside with just a little help.

Taranto - Only 2 good weeks of 80%+, scores of 109 & 68 (136 & 85) Round 17 next best at 67% and scores 44. Hard to read.

Merrett - Big spike towards the end of season resulting in how he finished the year.

Just my thoughts looking at it. Might be useful for some others to look and share what they see.

 

[JDWCE]

His average is largely inflated by 3 big scored of 118, 121 and 123 unadjusted. Outside of that he only had 2 other unadjusted scores over 85.

Adjust his scoring and that’s still only 5 games for the year he’s hit 100 with 3 big scores of 135 plus. Take out his 3 outlier scores and he had an average scoring year.

I agree but you could just as easily take out his tagging role games and his average makes him a top 5 back

 

[11kgm]

Bruised liver? Wtf? That’s the sort of thing I’d use as an excuse for calling in sick to work if I’d had a few too many the night before....

“Sorry boss I can’t come in, I have a bruised liver”... “Yeah yeah ok mate sure you do... sleep off your hangover and we’ll see you tomorrow “ is how I see that conversation going.

Anyway, my misdemeanours aside, surely that’s a line through him to start the year now, even if he does play in the pre season game? An interrupted PS turns me off anybody but when it’s a gut runner like Whitfield then it’s full on panic stations.

might be another of Whitfield night on the pingas

 

[Iceman!]

Oh nice to see my players are changing it up this year, gonna get injured before the season even starts this time to spice things up.

Love it, gotta keep it feeling fresh.

 

[Zevon]

Oh nice to see my players are changing it up this year, gonna get injured before the season even starts this time to spice things up.

Love it, gotta keep it feeling fresh.

Maybe it’s your year. I wish I got advance warning of all my team’s injuries before the season started rather than one game in

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Ok. Had a go at this a few days ago and then realised I was including finals scores, so back to the drawing board. I used DT Data View; should be accurate.

Chewed up too much time putting this tally together (both times). Maybe there is a resource out there that totals up point scoring for the last three years, but anyway I manually (Excel) did it.

I am confident all the numbers here are correct but there is a possibility of some omissions. Apart from Tom Mitchell and a couple of other interesting players, I only used guys that scored for the last three years.

The reason for looking at this is that we focus so heavily on averages, including in calculating the price, but we don’t tend to focus much on overall annual totals which in turn reflects durability.

One example: Grundy vs Gawn.

Really, given some of the unnecessary sideways trades I have had to make in recent seasons, I am going to start targeting reliability rather than high averages. Hopefully it can be both.

Obviously if you’re taking players with discounts you are by definition taking injury prone / affected players. This is understandable because it is important we look for value, so I am mainly targeting this consistency criteria at the premiums / keepers.

Over the course of his career, I reckon I have had Josh Kelly in my team 5 or 6 times. From when he was a rookie and Sheedy or more likely, Cameron rested him a lot, through to 2020. All the way through he has consistently missed games. His averages have been as good as anyone but I doubt I have had any more than 3 or 4 games without having to trade him. He has been a total disaster every time. All the while killing it, average-wise.

No more for me. From now on, the only risk taking on durability will be on players heavily under priced on past performances.

Ps. we now have tougher concussion protocols to factor in.

The third column is the player’s average score if you held them for every game. It’s easy to see who misses games because their averages are way down. ie. Fyfe: 76, the aforementioned, Kelly: 72 and Treloar, 75.5.

Ps. I've just realised something I should have done. 2020 scores haven't been adjusted to 20 minute quarters. Bummer

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

I've had Whitfield in my team since October but his liver injury and the fact I decided to stick with reliable week in, week out players, as per my 3 year totals page posted earlier, I can't do it. Like his mate Kelly: averages high, but misses too many games.

In the last three years he has scored approximately 650 less points than Lloyd but with almost exact average totals: ~300.

So, he is gone.

One of my (only) best decisions last year was ditching Docherty early for L McDonald. He was excellent. Sounds like the role is there again as he has been dominating similarly in match sim this pre-season. I am also keen on Luke Ryan again. After starting with a demoralizing 29 he was great for the rest of the year and his role should be more Fantasy friendly.

My shortlist has about 140 on it at the moment so there will obviously be changes, but this is my team at the moment. The most contentious is Wingard. On the surface, it is dangerous and stupid, but apparently he is dominating clearance stuff at the moment and there is no doubt that if he is predominantly mid he averages 100+. He has gone over and around 90 3 times and last year it was 84 (67.5) from mainly a forward role. In the last four games his cba's increased and he averaged (adjusted) 91.5. Good enough when priced at 84 and hopefully he goes better. Pre-season games for him will be interesting indeed.

Just need to trim $26,000 off to be under the cap. As I say every year though: at round 1, it will be, put the must have rookies on the field, and then fill in the rest.

 

[davosowl]

So with the Whit injury news, I was having a bit of a play around with my team. Instead of the obvious Lloyd replacement, I couldn't resist trying a more complicated shuffle:

Whitfield -> Docherty
Hately -> Cumming (via Laird DPP)
Daniher -> Dunkley

Still not completely sold on Doch and Dunk, but it's tempting. Also considering Witherden and Marshall as an alternative.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

It's only been 10 minutes and already Ive had a ***kin' gutful of the Tik Tok ad that's bouncing up and down either side of my Fantasy page.

 

[kozi]

I've had Whitfield in my team since October but his liver injury and the fact I decided to stick with reliable week in, week out players, as per my 3 year totals page posted earlier, I can't do it. Like his mate Kelly: averages high, but misses too many games.

In the last three years he has scored approximately 650 less points than Lloyd but with almost exact average totals: ~300.

So, he is gone.

One of my (only) best decisions last year was ditching Docherty early for L McDonald. He was excellent. Sounds like the role is there again as he has been dominating similarly in match sim this pre-season. I am also keen on Luke Ryan again. After starting with a demoralizing 29 he was great for the rest of the year and his role should be more Fantasy friendly.

My shortlist has about 140 on it at the moment so there will obviously be changes, but this is my team at the moment. The most contentious is Wingard. On the surface, it is dangerous and stupid, but apparently he is dominating clearance stuff at the moment and there is no doubt that if he is predominantly mid he averages 100+. He has gone over and around 90 3 times and last year it was 84 (67.5) from mainly a forward role. In the last four games his cba's increased and he averaged (adjusted) 91.5. Good enough when priced at 84 and hopefully he goes better. Pre-season games for him will be interesting indeed.

Just need to trim $26,000 off to be under the cap. As I say every year though: at round 1, it will be, put the must have rookies on the field, and then fill in the rest.

View attachment 1053179

Greaves is a left field one I’ve also been considering. He did look great in those 3 games last year, however is a mere 3 games enough exposure to take a punt on @ 530k? Priced at 70 you’d need him to average at least 85 to be worth it which is a big ask.

At least Harmes/Milera have the runs on the board and come in cheaper.

 

[TedDougChris]

Greaves is a left field one I’ve also been considering. He did look great in those 3 games last year, however is a mere 3 games enough exposure to take a punt on @ 530k? Priced at 70 you’d need him to average at least 85 to be worth it which is a big ask.

At least Harmes/Milera have the runs on the board and come in cheaper.

Agreed - it's his price that put me off him. 3 games should not get you priced at 530K.....

 

[perplexed]

I've had Whitfield in my team since October but his liver injury and the fact I decided to stick with reliable week in, week out players, as per my 3 year totals page posted earlier, I can't do it. Like his mate Kelly: averages high, but misses too many games.

In the last three years he has scored approximately 650 less points than Lloyd but with almost exact average totals: ~300.

So, he is gone.

One of my (only) best decisions last year was ditching Docherty early for L McDonald. He was excellent. Sounds like the role is there again as he has been dominating similarly in match sim this pre-season. I am also keen on Luke Ryan again. After starting with a demoralizing 29 he was great for the rest of the year and his role should be more Fantasy friendly.

My shortlist has about 140 on it at the moment so there will obviously be changes, but this is my team at the moment. The most contentious is Wingard. On the surface, it is dangerous and stupid, but apparently he is dominating clearance stuff at the moment and there is no doubt that if he is predominantly mid he averages 100+. He has gone over and around 90 3 times and last year it was 84 (67.5) from mainly a forward role. In the last four games his cba's increased and he averaged (adjusted) 91.5. Good enough when priced at 84 and hopefully he goes better. Pre-season games for him will be interesting indeed.

Just need to trim $26,000 off to be under the cap. As I say every year though: at round 1, it will be, put the must have rookies on the field, and then fill in the rest.

View attachment 1053179

The concern I have with McDonald is that Ziebell is likely to be playing a similar role this year. Luke could get pushed into a tagging role more.

 

[kozi]

Agreed - it's his price that put me off him. 3 games should not get you priced at 530K.....

Yeah ideally would have liked him sub 400k as a H Young alternative.

All these choices in the backline is a good problem to have I guess. Conversely the choices in the fwd line or lack thereof is the real issue.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I've currently got Cunnington at M7 ...

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Agreed - it's his price that put me off him. 3 games should not get you priced at 530K.....

Averaged the equivalent of 88 and priced with a discount at 69. I've never seen a three gamer look so comfortable and apparently killing it in training. Could also swith to Day who apparently is doing likewise.

The concern I have with McDonald is that Ziebell is likely to be playing a similar role this year. Luke could get pushed into a tagging role more.

One for the practice matches. There's other options. As I've said: it will all be determined by how much cap is left after the rookies are put in place.

 

[bl4ke]

Anyone listened to the Hately dt talk podcast and want to provide a brief summary?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Anyone listened to the Hately dt talk podcast and want to provide a brief summary?

Won a couple of school-yard fantasy premierships when he was 15/16, that's as far as I got on the way back from the gym this morning. There will still be some more to come.