Coach Operation Get Hardwick

[shewho]

I’ve gone back over it- every single premiership coach this century either:

1. Won a flag at his first club or
2. Won a flag at his previous club.

You have to go back to Blight at Adelaide and Malthouse at West Coast - both last century- to find a premiership coach who had failed to win a flag at his previous club. Matthews had won one at Collingwood and Malthouse had won one at West Coast (but not Footscray).

Unless Essendon or St Kilda win it this year (highly unlikely) the stats in the last 25 years will be:

First Time Coaches: 80%
Coaches who won at their previous club: 20% (Matthews 3, Malthouse 1)
Coaches who did not win at their previous club: 0%

Therefore, either get a premiership coach from another club (ie Simpson, Hardwick) or a new coach.

 

[JimmyBC]

I wonder if Carr would be willing to wait if it was a Roos/Goodwin style 2 years of Hardwick followed by a transition to Carr.

I feel like Carr is ready now but he also said he is not in a rush and may feel he will have a better chance of success and longevity after 2 years learning off of Hardwick.

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Carr is ready to go we are not a 60 year basketcase that needs a Roos-esque reset.

You only get Hardwick if you want him to potentially coach for 5 to 10 years.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

If Carr is pulling the strings on our stellar year, then he gets the head coaching job next year because he is kinda doing it now.

We have seen what a good coach can do. We don't need to look elsewhere.

 

[bomberclifford]

I'm happier with a new coach and if that's Carr, then I'm ok with that.

We tend to get caught up in the myths and legends of previous coaches but my hunch is that Clarkson and Hardwick are both on the wrong side of the equation. Too old, too jaded, and too much success so their hunger isn't what it was.

 

[JimmyBC]

I'm happier with a new coach and if that's Carr, then I'm ok with that.

We tend to get caught up in the myths and legends of previous coaches but my hunch is that Clarkson and Hardwick are both on the wrong side of the equation. Too old, too jaded, and too much success so their hunger isn't what it was.

I agree on the hunger thing, I guess Hardwick is five or 6 years younger than Daddy & Clarko though.

#startthecarr

 

[bomberclifford]

I agree on the hunger thing, I guess Hardwick is five or 6 years younger than Daddy & Clarko though.

#startthecarr

Daddy is definitely on the wrong side. He's older than me FFS!

 

[JimmyBC]

Daddy is definitely on the wrong side. He's older than me FFS!

Old Daddy is giving me premature wrinkles

 

[PAFC66]

If Carr is pulling the strings on our stellar year, then he gets the head coaching job next year because he is kinda doing it now.

We have seen what a good coach can do. We don't need to look elsewhere.

Do we know this?
He's out midfield coach

 

[Econopower]

So 15% for retreads.

You can't say if that's good or not without a comparison to fresh coaches.

What's the percentage for new coaches?

Id guess it's as bad or worse.

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This century it is basically Leigh Matthews and Mick Malthouse, that is it. Before that you have to go back to David Parkin.

And Malthouse took a decade to win his premiership at Collingwood.

You are right though that you would have to compare the ratios for all premiership coaches and new coaches.

Some of the failures include Worsfold at Essendon, Sheedy at GWS, Pagan
at Carlton, Malthouse at Carlton, and Blight at St Kilda.

We are talking very small samples, and lots of factors besides the coach determining outcomes. But only the minority strike gold twice.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Do we know this?
He's out midfield coach

We do not know this 100% but there is a lot of evidence to suggest this.

 

[Lightning_Rod]

The only thing I'm sure of. If Ken leaves, particularly to a well resourced club with good strong leadership above and quality youth he'll turn into peak Clarko overnight.

And Butters will follow.

So yeah, lock me in on the hold.

A well resourced club with strong leadership above would look twice at ken so it's a moot point.

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[Peninsula Boy]

I’ve gone back over it- every single premiership coach this century either:

1. Won a flag at his first club or
2. Won a flag at his previous club.

You have to go back to Blight at Adelaide and Malthouse at West Coast - both last century- to find a premiership coach who had failed to win a flag at his previous club. Matthews had won one at Collingwood and Malthouse had won one at West Coast (but not Footscray).

Unless Essendon or St Kilda win it this year (highly unlikely) the stats in the last 25 years will be:

First Time Coaches: 80%
Coaches who won at their previous club: 20% (Matthews 3, Malthouse 1)
Coaches who did not win at their previous club: 0%

Therefore, either get a premiership coach from another club (ie Simpson, Hardwick) or a new coach.

Great post.

Interestingly, Malcolm Blight at Adelaide and Mick Malthouse at West Coast had those original lists and walk in 'free agents' coming through so they both had great teams at the 7 year mark of their lives. So if you take those two out of it, then it shifts even closer to a new coach.

You could also say the same for Leigh Matthews at Brisbane. What a list they had when we were up and about 7 years in.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

This century it is basically Leigh Matthews and Mick Malthouse, that is it. Before that you have to go back to David Parkin.

And Malthouse took a decade to win his premiership at Collingwood.

You are right though that you would have to compare the ratios for all premiership coaches and new coaches.

Some of the failures include Worsfold at Essendon, Sheedy at GWS, Pagan
at Carlton, Malthouse at Carlton, and Blight at St Kilda.

We are talking very small samples, and lots of factors besides the coach determining outcomes. But only the minority strike gold twice.

Fos Williams couldn't do anything with South Adelaide. That says something about South Adelaide's genetic predisposition to failure.

Train harder!
Why?

 

[Macca19]

So 15% for retreads.

You can't say if that's good or not without a comparison to fresh coaches.

What's the percentage for new coaches?

Id guess it's as bad or worse.

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My maths may be a little off, but from what i've worked out:

11 out of 54 new coaches since the turn of the century have won premierships.

2 out of 17 2nd+ time coaches since the turn of the century have won premierships

So 20% for noobs, 11% for retreads

 

[Econopower]

My maths may be a little off, but from what i've worked out:

11 out of 54 new coaches since the turn of the century have won premierships.

2 out of 17 2nd+ time coaches since the turn of the century have won premierships

So 20% for noobs, 11% for retreads

I think the ratio is a bit higher for retreads who won a premiership with their previous club…

 

[Jojay]

I've come to take Carr's comment that he's in no rush as a message to outside club that he's not interested in leaving Port.

Which probably means a succession deal has already been struck.

 

[Butters and Pepper]

I've come to take Carr's comment that he's in no rush as a message to outside club that he's not interested in leaving Port.

Watch how fast his viewpoint changes if/when we extend Hinkley's contract.

 

[PAFC66]

I've come to take Carr's comment that he's in no rush as a message to outside club that he's not interested in leaving Port.

Which probably means a succession deal has already been struck.

100% agree with this.
Carr will coach us next year regardless of what happens this year.
Ken jumping down to the bench is a to hell with it type move. He knows he's gone.

 

[Incarnate]

I’m 99% sure I’m all in, like all in on that. Like 110%. It’s math baby!

 

[QPower]

So, Caro thinks Hardwick off to GC.

If so, it is a superannuation top up and he is best avoided.

 

[JimmyBC]

So, Caro thinks Hardwick off to GC.

If so, it is a superannuation top up and he is best avoided.

You know she's had Clarko going there, she's had Chris Scott going there, she's had Ken going there & now Dimma.

She basically won't stop until she lands on the right square. Dew is good mates with Dimma btw.

 

[finbarr]

Caro gets so much stuff wrong. She's nothing more than a pathetic gossip columnist. Just awful.

 

[finbarr]

Oh, i forgot. Hardwick to Port confirmed.

*it's happening GIF.

 

[Wargreymon90]

Caro gets so much stuff wrong. She's nothing more than a pathetic gossip columnist. Just awful.

Nah Caro does more research than most journalists. She’s not perfect and goes too hard when perhaps she shouldn’t.

But she isn’t afraid to stick it to the boys club and overall is good for the industry.

 

[Burningleviathan]

The AFL probably want Hardwick to the GC, that's what she would know.
Dimma himself is probably looking forward to sleeping for a week with no actual future plans for now.