List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

I'm confident we'll get him

I reckon we'll have more than enough cap to get them both in (assuming we even have interest in Richards)

I'd love Richards I just have no idea if we have interest in him and I also don't see why he wouldn't re-sign with the Dogs?

So your expectation is we bring in LDU and Ed Richards next year?

Have a feeling you are destined to be disappointed. It would be a miracle if we got one of them.

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

I agree. He needs to settle somewhere so he can put 150% effort into the one positon rather than being swapped between forward. Mid. Defence.

Was it confirmed Murphy is coming back to assist in some way? He'd be a great mentor for young guys like Reef, Dean etc.

 

[Jen2310]

Was it confirmed Murphy is coming back to assist in some way? He'd be a great mentor for young guys like Reef, Dean etc.

Yeah, believe it was mentioned he'd be an off field role plus working with the young defenders.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

In terms of true quality/damaging pure mids we have:

• Nick
• Jordy (body is now unreliable)
• Mitchell (body is now unreliable)

That's it?

Beau we're trying to make him one
Ed Allan looks very promising but is a kid who has played 2 games
Pendles is well and truly a "part timer" there now at his age
Crisp can probably be used there more with Houston coming in
and Perryman right now is an unknown in the role

There is simply no world where a player the quality of LDU at his age is "excessive" for us

LDU- body is now unreliable.

 

[JoinDate]

Hi all.

Had to create an account to get something off my chest! But I have a feeling it won't be my last post.

The narrative of "risk" that's been peddled by the AFL media this week when it comes to our recruitment has been driving me up the wall. It's become patently obvious that within the sheltered workshop of the footy media there's:

1. Little to no understanding of risk identification and management.

2. A very old fashioned notion that there's anything remotely "safer" or "lower risk" in a club investing the majority of its capital in the draft, even a supposedly deep draft like this one.

Yes, we have an age profile that slants older but there are so many other factors to take into account. Experience, big game presence, cool heads under pressure. Proven ability and class. High standards and accountabilty. Leadership. Nous. These are things we have in abundance in our older players. And it wins finals.

If we're taking about risk, there is a MUCH greater risk in investing heavily in, say, pick 3 in the draft cough than there is for us in recruiting a two time (and current) AA star with one of the best kicks in the game, with big game experience and a quantifiable track record as a model professional both on and off the field. Or a DFA who kicks plenty of goals in an underwhelming side like St Kilda. That pick 3 guarantees you absolutely nothing. Zero.

And we also know there are different standards at play here. Geelong go for an injury riddled, underperforming 29 year old in Jack Martin as a DFA and we have to listen to the media drool over the decision. But getting a superstar in his prime like Houston, while trading away a future first that we won't use anyway is "going all in" and a "big risk".

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk and I'll make sure my next post is a bit shorter!

I just subscribed to your newsletter.

 

[Pistol Night]

So your expectation is we bring in LDU and Ed Richards next year?

Have a feeling you are destined to be disappointed. It would be a miracle if we got one of them.

We've gotta go the free agent path as we've got no picks. LDU is the obvious one

 

[nahnah]

LDU is a lock

 

[DopeMaster]

If I was North I would match no matter what with LDU next year. They don't need another drafee. They need mature club leaders and LDU is is that and a bloody good player.

Matching doesn’t mean they keep him, just means they force a trade, which in the hypothetical case is less advantageous than them taking the compo.

 

[Ctracks]

Reef and Fin, bye bye at the end of 2025

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Matching doesn’t mean they keep him, just means they force a trade, which in the hypothetical case is less advantageous than them taking the compo.

That's a good point. Your right. If a player then said I'm leaving and you can't stop me it becomes like a normal OOC player. So that would then make it hard on North but also us. They would ask for 2025 and 2026 F1 (new trading rules make this more likely imo). Hopefully they finish bottom 4 and we win it if that happens. Because they are more likely to take the compo in that situation.
Maybe you said that last part already I'm not sure

 

[Matt_352]

Reef and Fin, bye bye at the end of 2025

AJ too

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Reef and Fin, bye bye at the end of 2025

Agree unless they improve a lot.

 

[RobJD]

Hi all.

Had to create an account to get something off my chest! But I have a feeling it won't be my last post.

The narrative of "risk" that's been peddled by the AFL media this week when it comes to our recruitment has been driving me up the wall. It's become patently obvious that within the sheltered workshop of the footy media there's:

1. Little to no understanding of risk identification and management.

2. A very old fashioned notion that there's anything remotely "safer" or "lower risk" in a club investing the majority of its capital in the draft, even a supposedly deep draft like this one.

Yes, we have an age profile that slants older but there are so many other factors to take into account. Experience, big game presence, cool heads under pressure. Proven ability and class. High standards and accountabilty. Leadership. Nous. These are things we have in abundance in our older players. And it wins finals.

If we're taking about risk, there is a MUCH greater risk in investing heavily in, say, pick 3 in the draft cough than there is for us in recruiting a two time (and current) AA star with one of the best kicks in the game, with big game experience and a quantifiable track record as a model professional both on and off the field. Or a DFA who kicks plenty of goals in an underwhelming side like St Kilda. That pick 3 guarantees you absolutely nothing. Zero.

And we also know there are different standards at play here. Geelong go for an injury riddled, underperforming 29 year old in Jack Martin as a DFA and we have to listen to the media drool over the decision. But getting a superstar in his prime like Houston, while trading away a future first that we won't use anyway is "going all in" and a "big risk".

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk and I'll make sure my next post is a bit shorter!

Agree, too many football "journos" have their heart way too close to their sleeve and suffer from acute myopia. Ironically, those espousing the National Draft as "the" place to go for quality ignore the fact that duel AA Houston wasn't recruited from the National Draft - there's so many options other than the National Draft.
Key thing is that there's only one premiership on offer next year, that's our clear focus, we'll deal with the rest in good time.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

LDU is a lock

You realise he is a restricted free agent?

Are you aware of what that means?

Fair dinkum, it's like kindergarten around here.

 

[nahnah]

You realise he is a restricted free agent?

Are you aware of what that means?

Fair dinkum, it's like kindergarten around here.

I do, that’s better than being signed up for 3 years like Houston was

 

[tmpies01]

LDU and Pies feels like the perfect match. I feel we’ll get him.

 

[tmpies01]

Still can’t believe Houston is ours… Seeing him in our predicted lineup next year has me hyped. He will thrive on the MCG.

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

 

[Exambolor]

LDU and Pies feels like the perfect match. I feel we’ll get him.

It’ll all come down to how North do next year, it’s been quoted that he wants to see a rise up in the ladder before he considers his future there. If they finish bottom 2 again he’ll be up for grabs I feel

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

LDU and Pies feels like the perfect match. I feel we’ll get him.

 

[LuckyLee]

Knob is too kind...
As for off-field, yeah, I mean there's more than enough stability in the footy department with Fly, Leppa, Fraser, Hine in place & Kelly CEO. (Although, maybe Ned could pull his head in a bit, yeah?)
As for coaching, LOVE that Boyd is back; players love Selwood; Skipworth highly rated; plus, VFL program shaken up with a change of coach to Otten seems timely.

Yep, spot on! I particularly share your excitement about the return of Boyd. I thought he was great first time around and now has more experience from a different program. He’ll add plenty. I’m not too fussed to lose Bolton, provided we keep Leppa and Fly together.

Yeah, Ned, is a bit of a loose canon. Not sure he’s what we need as CEO but perhaps he’s useful at trade time?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Ctracks]

Agree unless they improve a lot.

should have been given the flick this year.

 

[WakeUpPies]

Carlton?


CARLTON?!

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Hi all.

Had to create an account to get something off my chest! But I have a feeling it won't be my last post.

The narrative of "risk" that's been peddled by the AFL media this week when it comes to our recruitment has been driving me up the wall. It's become patently obvious that within the sheltered workshop of the footy media there's:

1. Little to no understanding of risk identification and management.

2. A very old fashioned notion that there's anything remotely "safer" or "lower risk" in a club investing the majority of its capital in the draft, even a supposedly deep draft like this one.

Yes, we have an age profile that slants older but there are so many other factors to take into account. Experience, big game presence, cool heads under pressure. Proven ability and class. High standards and accountabilty. Leadership. Nous. These are things we have in abundance in our older players. And it wins finals.

If we're taking about risk, there is a MUCH greater risk in investing heavily in, say, pick 3 in the draft cough than there is for us in recruiting a two time (and current) AA star with one of the best kicks in the game, with big game experience and a quantifiable track record as a model professional both on and off the field. Or a DFA who kicks plenty of goals in an underwhelming side like St Kilda. That pick 3 guarantees you absolutely nothing. Zero.

And we also know there are different standards at play here. Geelong go for an injury riddled, underperforming 29 year old in Jack Martin as a DFA and we have to listen to the media drool over the decision. But getting a superstar in his prime like Houston, while trading away a future first that we won't use anyway is "going all in" and a "big risk".

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk and I'll make sure my next post is a bit shorter!

Great post.

Carlton invested 1st, 2nd, F1st and Owies (lets say he is worth a 2nd or the same as Noble) into pick 3 (ignoring the late picks which are meaningless imo)
Pick 3 projects as the following:
25% Dow like bust
25% okay/above average player 100-200 games (WHE type)
25% good 200 gamer (Taylor Adams type)
23% very good player (Scott Burns type)
2% generational player (N Daicos type)

Don't get me wrong I would have done the same if I was Carlton presented with pick 3. However in this draft there is a good chance that 12 and 14 would have been at least as good with the depth it has. On top of that if Carlton recruitment and development stuff up and let's face it that's fairly normal for them then that's a lot in investment for a dud.

Now our investment for Houston was basically 1 first rounder less than Carlton.

F1st, 2nd, Noble (lets say 2nd) and Richards (lets say 3rd).

Now imo Houston does the following for us because he appears to be very durable.

5% He gets injured and plays less than 25-50 games (He is durable so very unlikely)
25% chance he plays 50-100 games of good football but he is mostly not elite like he has been for the last 2 years.
70% He plays 100 -170 games of mostly good to elite standard and wins 1-2 more AA guernseys.

Now if my predictions are correct (for this sort of thing I'm usually pretty good) then who has gotten the best deal overall?

The answer us us easily when you consider we payed 1 less 1st compared to them and we are much more likely to stay in our window over the next 4 years.

 

[DopeMaster]

That's a good point. Your right. If a player then said I'm leaving and you can't stop me it becomes like a normal OOC player. So that would then make it hard on North but also us. They would ask for 2025 and 2026 F1 (new trading rules make this more likely imo). Hopefully they finish bottom 4 and we win it if that happens. Because they are more likely to take the compo in that situation.
Maybe you said that last part already I'm not sure

Exactly. Poaching FA’s from cellar dwellers means them matching bids is not advantageous for them.

One reason why LDU as opposed to say, the ranga from the Dogs, may be the smarter play.

Dogs based on finishing position may match to force a trade, North if they’re bottom 4 would be stupid to.