List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[Bramax]

Once again, Houston. Not Lord.

I’m hearing you. If Houston costs the earth and Lord is much cheaper I wouldn’t be shattered adding a developing key forward to our team instead.

 

[leon123]

Later picks (this year or next) for points because GCS need points.
The disclaimer is making sure we have enough points for Tommy next year though.
I get the feeling that GCS will place more importance on securing specific player types this trade period than using picks in the draft.
Dimma would love the run and rebound of both Rioli and Noble off half back.
It’s only spitballing though mate. Who knows how it may pan out.

Thankyou for your response. Ive got no idea.

All i can add is get em and play em

 

[JLC]

Perryman sounds like he’s across. Good get. Positional flexibility, good age etc

Wonder if there’s a way to leverage this further I.e. Pay Perryman an extra X amount to get GWS a higher compo bracket, and in turn they accept a used dinger for Peatling?

To play devil's advocate.

Is giving Perryman such a deal, the equivalent of what the Tigers did with Taranto and Hopper with their long term deals?

Where did Richmond go wrong (when I say wrong I purely mean not staying up like Geelong - winning 3 in 4 is incredible areas)?

Did they lose all their depth players - Butler, Higgins, Ellis, Chol?

(Is that why Fly is saying if we lose Noble, Richards etc he wants players not picks?)

Was it not nailing the 2021 draft (picks 9, 17, 28, 29, 30?)

Was it the loss of Hardwick that led to the mass exodus of players?

I guess, I want us to avoid the mistake(s) the Tigers made.

 

[sr36]

I mean... Pick 12 would more often than not get us an amazing 18 yo talent. Someone who will reach Dan Houston's age in 2033.

No it wouldn't.

 

[stormskye]

After hearing hardwick speak, it sounds like they’re sick of first round draft picks and believe they need to trade them out and get ready made players in return. I can understand the interest in Noble and Rioli

Outside of the top 10 draft picks are severely overrated IMO. Posters hear about “first round” and immediately think “gun player” but outside top 10 the stats are pretty average.

A quick search on draft guru provides the following

Average games played:
Picks 11-20: 118
Picks 21-30: 90.2

So picks 11-20 historically equate to highly 5 years of footy.

Of course there’s outliers, but picks especially with compromised drafts are overrated. There’s a lot of luck involved outside of top 10 picks.

 

[satanshoof101]

To play devil's advocate.

Is giving Perryman such a deal, the equivalent of what the Tigers did with Taranto and Hopper with their long term deals?

Where did Richmond go wrong (when I say wrong I purely mean not staying up like Geelong - winning 3 in 4 is incredible areas)?

Did they lose all their depth players - Butler, Higgins, Ellis, Chol?

(Is that why Fly is saying if we lose Noble, Richards etc he wants players not picks?)

Was it not nailing the 2021 draft (picks 9, 17, 28, 29, 30?)

Was it the loss of Hardwick that led to the mass exodus of players?

I guess, I want us to avoid the mistake(s) the Tigers made.

I think it was about how much trade capital they gave up for the two. I believe it was 2022 pick 12-19 which ended up being Elijah Hewett and Max Gruzewski and a 2023 first which ended up being Daniel Curtin.

 

[manicpie]

Outside of the top 10 draft picks are severely overrated. Posters hear about “first round” and immediately think “gun player” but outside top 10 the stats are pretty average.

A quick search on draft guru provides the following

Average games played:
Picks 11-20: 118
Picks 21-30: 90.2

So picks 11-20 historically equate to highly 5 years of footy.

Of course there’s outliers, but picks especially with compromised drafts are overrated.

I agree. I hope this draft that we can get a couple of picks in the 20s and get genuine KF and KD, that we can develop. I just think it's time. Realistically, you need a top-10 if you want peace of mind.

 

[Bramax]

Outside of the top 10 draft picks are severely overrated. Posters hear about “first round” and immediately think “gun player” but outside top 10 the stats are pretty average.

A quick search on draft guru provides the following

Average games played:
Picks 11-20: 118
Picks 21-30: 90.2

So picks 11-20 historically equate to highly 5 years of footy.

Of course there’s outliers, but picks especially with compromised drafts are overrated. There’s a lot of luck involved outside of top 10 picks.

I thought this years draft has a strong first round of players? Isn’t that what we’ve been lead to believe or have I heard that wrong?

 

[Pendles!]

To play devil's advocate.

Is giving Perryman such a deal, the equivalent of what the Tigers did with Taranto and Hopper with their long term deals?

Where did Richmond go wrong (when I say wrong I purely mean not staying up like Geelong - winning 3 in 4 is incredible areas)?

Did they lose all their depth players - Butler, Higgins, Ellis, Chol?

(Is that why Fly is saying if we lose Noble, Richards etc he wants players not picks?)

Was it not nailing the 2021 draft (picks 9, 17, 28, 29, 30?)

Was it the loss of Hardwick that led to the mass exodus of players?

I guess, I want us to avoid the mistake(s) the Tigers made.

Taranto and Hopper cost the tigers like 3 (?) first round picks.

 

[stormskye]

I thought this years draft has a strong first round of players? Isn’t that what we’ve been lead to believe or have I heard that wrong?

It’s reportedly a strong draft. I’m just highlighting the stats on picks outside top 10. It seems very hit and miss to me.

 

[manicpie]

I thought this years draft has a strong first round of players? Isn’t that what we’ve been lead to believe or have I heard that wrong?

We hear that a lot but in reality, it's usually just another draft. However, yes, this is supposed to be a super draft

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

Taranto and Hopper cost the tigers like 3 (?) first round picks.

Richmond sent GWS a future first-round pick as well as picks 12, 19 and 31 for the pair.

 

[stormskye]

I agree. I hope this draft that we can get a couple of picks in the 20s and get genuine KF and KD, that we can develop. I just think it's time. Realistically, you need a top-10 if you want peace of mind.

yup. To me after the top 10 it’s very much a lottery. Look at Brisbane top couple of kids. Both taken in the 20’s and 30’s. I fact I’m almost talking myself around into the Houston two firsts trade as long as they are later picks

 

[manicpie]

yup. To me after the top 10 it’s very much a lottery.

If there were no compromises whatsoever, then we would see a potential super draft but not with all the concessions.

 

[Bramax]

It’s reportedly a strong draft. I’m just highlighting the stats on picks outside top 10. It seems very hit and miss to me.

Interesting read for sure.

 

[WakeUpPies]

Dan Houston

9

Dan Houston

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

289.2

4star

D

17.6

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.4

4star

MG

319.9

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.2

4star

M

7.0

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

279.8

5star

would fill the Heath Shaw

23

Heath Shaw

Age

39

Ht

183cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.0

5star

K

15.8

5star

HB

5.2

4star

M

6.3

5star

T

2.4

4star

MG

472.4

5star

D

14.5

3star

K

11.0

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.6

3star

MG

244.0

4star

D

13.4

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

3.8

3star

M

5.8

5star

T

1.4

4star

sized hole in my heart. 2 1sts might be pushing it but realistically the likelihood those players become as good as Houston is low.

 

[stormskye]

I thought this years draft has a strong first round of players? Isn’t that what we’ve been lead to believe or have I heard that wrong?

Again mate, it’s a reported strong draft. I’m simply highlighting outside of top 10 stats show the draft is very much a lottery. This year the top 10 might be a top 20. It might be an outlier. If so then let’s hope we get back into it.

 

[PiesHateU2]

No it wouldn't.

Given our track record (or lack of) with first round draft picks, I would probably agree. But I am quite certain Geelong would find a 200 gamer with Pick 12

 

[stormskye]

Given our track record (or lack of) with first round draft picks, I would probably agree. But I am quite certain Geelong would find a 200 gamer with Pick 12

They took Clarke with pick 8 in 22. How’s he tracking?

 

[manicpie]

Again mate, it’s a reported strong draft. I’m simply highlighting outside of top 10 stats show the draft is very much a lottery. This year the top 10 might be a top 20. It might be an outlier. If so then let’s hope we get back into it.

When you consider that Ashcroft and Lombard will probably go top 5, it's already a top 8

 

[soreplums]

yup. To me after the top 10 it’s very much a lottery. Look at Brisbane top couple of kids. Both taken in the 20’s and 30’s. I fact I’m almost talking myself around into the Houston two firsts trade as long as they are later picks

The more interesting report would be which clubs have the best development rate from picks 10-20

 

[manicpie]

Given our track record (or lack of) with first round draft picks, I would probably agree. But I am quite certain Geelong would find a 200 gamer with Pick 12

Geelongs strength is finding gems with late picks, not so much higher picks

 

[SwanBet]

They say we are in the mix for Houston. But don't think we are really.
Think other clubs are further ahead than we are. I'm not even thinking about that possibility as a live option.

I tend to agree, I think its very unlikely. Any trade for Houston would depend on what we can salvage out of the Noble trade and then an even bigger IF on whether the club are prepared to torpedo all of our draft capital to get the deal done.

Here is the scenario and package that would put us in the frame for Houston:
J.Noble + 2025 R1 + 2025 R3 > Pick 12 & Pick 20
Pick 12 & Pick 20 > D.Houston

Macrae's comments are interesting around wanting players over picks. Make no mistake, Houston is a star. He would come to the club as the third best player on our list IMO.

If this was to eventuate, they must have really high hopes for Maguane as an A-grade talent.

 

[JuniorB]

To play devil's advocate.

Is giving Perryman such a deal, the equivalent of what the Tigers did with Taranto and Hopper with their long term deals?

Where did Richmond go wrong (when I say wrong I purely mean not staying up like Geelong - winning 3 in 4 is incredible areas)?

Did they lose all their depth players - Butler, Higgins, Ellis, Chol?

(Is that why Fly is saying if we lose Noble, Richards etc he wants players not picks?)

Was it not nailing the 2021 draft (picks 9, 17, 28, 29, 30?)

Was it the loss of Hardwick that led to the mass exodus of players?

I guess, I want us to avoid the mistake(s) the Tigers made.

Richmond gave up high draft picks for Taranto and Hopper.
Perryman is a free agent with no draft pick cost, and would fill a specific need.
Completely different scenario.

 

[stormskye]

The more interesting report would be which clubs have the best development rate from picks 10-20

I’m no draft expert plums, far from it. I just think there’s no science to picking the guns outside of the top 5-10 who really shine and are obvious stars. Seems to me there’s lots of luck involved.

Which is why I’m completely content with Schultz, who’s going to be a 200 gamer at worst.