List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[PiesHateU2]

Not that this disproves the argument that picks 11-20 are a lottery, however here are the Pick 12s in the past few years:

2015: C Curnow
2016: J. Simpkin
2017: D. Fogarty
2018: Z. Butters
2019: K Pickett
2020: T Bruhn
2021: J Sinn
2022: J Fletcher
2023: P Gothard (have to admit I have no idea who this is)

And in earlier years (yes, I am cherry picking I know)
2011: S Docherty
2007: C Rioli
2006: J Frawley
2005: N Jones
2003: R Murphy
2002: J Schulz
2001: B Reilly
2000: S Burgoyne

Not that bad a Pick to take into the national draft

 

[manicpie]

Not that this disproves the argument that picks 11-20 are a lottery, however here are the Pick 12s in the past few years:

2016: J. Simpkin
2017: D. Fogarty
2018: Z. Butters
2019: K Pickett
2020: T Bruhn
2021: J Sinn
2022: J Fletcher
2023: P Gothard (have to admit I have no idea who this is)

Not that bad a Pick to take into the national draft

Gothard, never even remember that name being called out. I'm going to look into him

 

[AmericanMustard]

Not that this disproves the argument that picks 11-20 are a lottery, however here are the Pick 12s in the past few years:

2016: J. Simpkin
2017: D. Fogarty
2018: Z. Butters
2019: K Pickett
2020: T Bruhn
2021: J Sinn
2022: J Fletcher
2023: P Gothard (have to admit I have no idea who this is)

Not that bad a Pick to take into the national draft

so what your saying is you have a 50% chance of getting a decent player

Father sons/academy don’t count

 

[sr36]

Given our track record (or lack of) with first round draft picks, I would probably agree. But I am quite certain Geelong would find a 200 gamer with Pick 12

You should look up Cats record with teens picks. You'll be surprised.

One in 5.8 teens picks becomes an AA. It's obviously going to be less for a two time All Australian and Houston will probably end up with more than 2.

 

[PiesHateU2]

You should look up Cats record with teens picks. You'll be surprised.

One in 5.8 teens picks becomes an AA. It's obviously going to be less for a two time All Australian and Houston will probably end up with more than 2.

Fair enough

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

Gothard, never even remember that name being called out. I'm going to look into him

It was one of the feelgood moments on draft night. You'll remember him after watching the video.

Coach spills on 'whirlwind' rise for shock AFL draftee

'He will thrive'

www.nine.com.au

 

[soreplums]

I’m no draft expert plums, far from it. I just think there’s no science to picking the guns outside of the top 5-10 who really shine and are obvious stars. Seems to me there’s lots of luck involved.

Which is why I’m completely content with Schultz, who’s going to be a 200 gamer at worst.

No doubt they can play.

I just wonder how much influence a good development team has on how good players can get- particularly the clubs who have had multiple first rounders but can’t seem to crack it

 

[manicpie]

It was one of the feelgood moments on draft night. You'll remember him after watching the video.

Coach spills on 'whirlwind' rise for shock AFL draftee

'He will thrive'

www.nine.com.au

I remember the phoenix first name now. He's got some tricks

 

[soreplums]

Not that this disproves the argument that picks 11-20 are a lottery, however here are the Pick 12s in the past few years:

2015: C Curnow
2016: J. Simpkin
2017: D. Fogarty
2018: Z. Butters
2019: K Pickett
2020: T Bruhn
2021: J Sinn
2022: J Fletcher
2023: P Gothard (have to admit I have no idea who this is)

And in earlier years (yes, I am cherry picking I know)
2011: S Docherty
2007: C Rioli
2006: J Frawley
2005: N Jones
2003: R Murphy
2002: J Schulz
2001: B Reilly
2000: S Burgoyne

Not that bad a Pick to take into the national draft

Better than Pick 6

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

I remember the phoenix first name now. He's got some tricks

The celebrations when his name was called out was brilliant. He wasn't expecting to get picked until at least pick 30, so was still celebrating his best mate just being selected by the Cats

 

[PiesHateU2]

so what your saying is you have a 50% chance of getting a decent player

Father sons/academy don’t count

Well, over 2015-2023, assuming P Gothard is no good, that's still a 90% hit rate
Over 24 years from 2000-2023, its 16 guns which is 67% hit rate
Personally I'd be very happy with those odds
Look, my point is not so much that Pick 12 is amazing. Its more that Pick 12 and an F1 (likely also in a similar range), plus a list leading salary, I would be hoping to get a bonafide backline gun like J Sicily, an Alex Rance in his prime. Or a midfield superstar like Green or Butters or Petracca to partner with Nick Daicos

 

[manicpie]

The celebrations when his name was called out was brilliant. He wasn't expecting to get picked until at least pick 30, so was still celebrating his best mate just being selected by the Cats

Gee the Giants have some talent waiting in the wings

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

Gee the Giants have some talent waiting in the wings

Sure have. I think they can afford to off load a couple to us..

 

[VinnieB]

I didn't write it though. You're kinda shooting the messenger.

I know. Just showing how far off it can be. During the season I thought I'd look at Warner's draft profile to understand why he went later in the draft. I remember reading how he needed to improve his speed and lacked burst from stoppages.

Wasn't sure I was reading the right profile.

 

[manicpie]

I know. Just showing how far off it can be. During the season I thought I'd look at Warner's draft profile to understand why he went later in the draft. I remember reading how he needed to improve his speed and lacked burst from stoppages.

Wasn't sure I was reading the right profile.

I'm not even sure we're linked to him. Not sure how he came up in the conversation. He did win Box Hills B&F though

 

[HoraceStrasbork]

Apparently too small and wears a helmet. Looks like he's going to norf anyway

 

[manicpie]

View attachment 2123939

 

[sr36]

Well, over 2015-2023, assuming P Gothard is no good, that's still a 90% hit rate
Over 24 years from 2000-2023, its 16 guns which is 67% hit rate
Personally I'd be very happy with those odds
Look, my point is not so much that Pick 12 is amazing. Its more that Pick 12 and an F1 (likely also in a similar range), plus a list leading salary, I would be hoping to get a bonafide backline gun like J Sicily, an Alex Rance in his prime. Or a midfield superstar like Green or Butters or Petracca to partner with Nick Daicos

One pick number can throw up anomalies in terms of success or failure.

Do the maths on it. Most of the best players in the game are between 22 and 32 - some outliers like Nick and Zorko.

But that's 10 years of draft picks. 50 blokes in that range who were top 5 picks, 50 from 6-10, 50 from 11-15.

So if the drafts were perfectly ordered, you'd need a top 5 picks to get a player like Houston who is a top 50 player in the comp. But they're not perfectly ordered, there are hits and misses all through the draft - meaning not even a top 5 pick will average a top 50 player in the comp.

 

[Hardas]

I tend to agree, I think its very unlikely. Any trade for Houston would depend on what we can salvage out of the Noble trade and then an even bigger IF on whether the club are prepared to torpedo all of our draft capital to get the deal done.

Here is the scenario and package that would put us in the frame for Houston:
J.Noble + 2025 R1 + 2025 R3 > Pick 12 & Pick 20
Pick 12 & Pick 20 > D.Houston

Macrae's comments are interesting around wanting players over picks. Make no mistake, Houston is a star. He would come to the club as the third best player on our list IMO.

If this was to eventuate, they must have really high hopes for Maguane as an A-grade talent.

Bringing in a Houston honours the hopes of the likes of Moore & Maynard to remain competitve with whatever FA's can be brought in over the next couple of years as the oldies fade away, opening up the cap further.

 

[sr36]

This notion of “we have to trade 2025 first rounder now” is also a fallacy.

We could keep it next year and target a player, trade them in and still get McGuane.

We could also move it into the following year.

Is anyone saying we have to trade it now? I think a lot just want to to try to get into this draft that is highly rated.

 

[Fat Jesus]

That's Bruno Fernandez arriving for training at Old Trafford

 

[sr36]

Sure you're not getting him confused with Frampton?

Latest Video | Melbourne Football Club

Watch the latest interviews and highlights from the Melbourne Football Club

www.melbournefc.com.au

If this board is correct, and he does come to us, he's a chance of becoming the first ever hopeless 200 game player.

 

[manicpie]

That's Bruno Fernandez arriving for training at Old Trafford

Lol, it was meant to be little Daniel from the Bulldogs

 

[manicpie]

If this board is correct, and he does come to us, he's a chance of becoming the first ever hopeless 200 game player.

 

[Bramax]

Geelongs strength is finding gems with late picks, not so much higher picks

Chris Scott was praising the development coaches at Geelong on AFL360 a few nights back when quizzed on this.
Let’s poach some of them.