Opinion Paddy Dow, can you see a pathway for him to break into our best 22 or are we resigned to losing him?

[JustaBattler]

great summary Coona Blues

Dow is next up choice as far as midfield choice goes - but as you've highlighted he isn't the most versatile player on the list atm. This could develop once /if he gets the basics right as far as on ball duties go. However stiff competition from others coming. Good thing for the Club.

Future midfield options at Carlton already declared in contract offer to Carroll with Stocker/Kemp as likelies and Philp if he can get a run of fitness going. People also forget Cuningham because of his ACL - I have my fingers crossed - love what he brings- match winner - only caveat is fitness and a decent run.

I am one who doesn't think he is actually competing against Kennedy for a role tbh - Kennedy is a much more versatile forward option. I reckon Kennedy would be competing against a fit Cuningham. Dow competing against ?

Dow's problem is that he hasn't shown much in any other position except on ball and as an on baller he is pretty limited. P{eopel speak of his leg speed and I don't see him as being any faster than Walsh/Cerra - certainly nowhere near Cuningham - and from what I've seen Motlop is fast and is someone who is capable of playing forward and rotating midfield...Philp is fast...

Good luck to him he will need it.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Happy to keep him around, but suspect if he only plays a small number of AFL games this year he'll look elsewhere for opportunity (Richmond and North Melbourne both stand out as needing potential AFL-calibre midfielders).

Know him and his family detest Teague so Richmond are out of the picture I'd assume.

 

[thylacine60]

Paddy has been relatively slow burn to date. I have been a critic because his undoubted one wood, being fast hands and ability to break from the contest was on display only spasmodically. My biggest knock has always been the lack of intent and effort defensively. Given our midfield group, I have been amazed at the opportunity he has received while others had to lament in the twos or adapt to other positions.

He has started the season well. I commented that he worked in to the game on Sunday after being quiet early. The revelation that he copped a significant tag and managed to work through it adds to the performance, so credit where it is due. He was spoon fed by the under rated Mirkov, particularly evident by that breakaway goal seen on highlight reels. That is no slight as mids have to work with/to their ruckman.

I have no doubt Dow will be a quality AFL midfielder. Without significant change up I question his ceiling due to defensive shortcomings. It is fair to say that in the right midfield with appropriate support he could be a "star". I do see comparisons with Will Brodie who struggled to cement a spot before his move to the Dockers. It remains to be seen if Brodie can retain his spot when the likes of Fyfe, Mundy and Serong are back in the picture. I am thinking Paddy's ceiling is higher, but struggle to see regular opportunity with us.

Our midfield dynamic has

Patrick Cripps 27 years Contracted until the end of 2027 195cm 95kg Extractor first and foremost, but able to play as a key forward if needed
George Hewett 26/3 months " " " 2025 187cm 84kg Inside/outside mid, tagger and able to lockdown or rebound in defence
Matt Kennedy 24/11 " " " 2022 190cm 90kg Inside/outside mid, capable of playing effectively as a tall forward option
Adam Cerra 22/5 " " " 2025 187cm 86kg Inside/outside mid, proven off half back and half forward
Sam Walsh 21/9 " " " 2026 184cm 83kg Inside outside mid. Versatile enough to play half forward or half back
Will Setterfield 24/2 " " " 2022 192cm 86kg Inside/outside mid, making wing his own a bit surprisingly. OK back/fwd

Generation next?
Paddy Dow 22/5 " " " 2022 187cm 83kg Inside midfielder. To date largely ineffective outside and forward
Jack Carroll 19/3 " " " 2024 188cm 81kg Inside/outside mid, wing, half back, half forward

Possible/probable mids?
Liam Stocker 22/2 " " " 2022 184cm 85kg Defender, inside mid and possibly effective in other roles
Brodie Kemp 20/11 " " " 2023 193cm 87kg Versatile tall defender, forward, inside/outside mid. Taller than listed.
Sam Philp 20/3 " " " 2023 186cm 83kg Inside/outside mid, half forward, probably half back
Zac Williams 27/6 " " " 2026 185cm 86kg Half back, midfield, wing, half forward
Zac Fisher 23/9 " " " 2023 179cm 76kg Forward, inside/outside mid. Added some bulk
Lachie Fogarty 23 " " " 2022 180cm 78kg Forward, midfielder

Purely outside
Lachie O'Brien 22/6 " " " 2022 185cm 82kg Wing, half back

LTI
David Cuningham 25 " " " 2022 186cm 84kg Inside/outside, half forward. Genuine utility

Sunset staples
Ed Curnow
Jack Newnes

Pinch hitters
Jack Silvagni
Jack Martin
Corey Durdin
Jesse Motlop

We will offer Paddy Dow the best contract we can. If he is happy and prepared to bide his time, he will accept it. Realistically it will be nowhere near outside offers he will get. Richmond where his brother plays, North where he has family ties, rebuilding West Coast, St Kilda, Dad's army Geelong, maybe the Gold Coast and even Freo or Port where their developing mids are on the small side. All are potential suitors, all will want a "bargain", but I can see a Dutch auction happening if we can showcase him through the season.

With natural progression as outlined by his start to the season, he is a front line mid in any team without a settled engine room in 2023. His future will be linked with Bam Bam. Many, including me, see MK likely to sign a significantly upgraded, but not ridiculous contract and stay with the team. If someone comes knocking with a grand daddy offer he can walk unencumbered opening a career path for Dow.

Clearly from the above list, we have numerous options coming through.

Of the out of contract players highlighted in blue, I see the priority being
1. Kennedy.........incumbent engine room member, playing excellent football.
2. Stocker..........point of difference hard nut with sublime disposal(usually) Doc, Saad, Williams, Newy, even Plow closing on thirty TOGETHER, need to .......................spread the age dynamic down back
3. Setterfield......re-established himself as a midfield staple by owning that defensive wing. Have other options so won't be offered huge contract
4. Dow..............unlucky, although missed opportunity to book his long term spot earlier. Finally approaching maturity, timing off. Expendable, so won't ........................get a massive offer from us.
5. Cuningham.....Gun, finally maturing before ACL. Deeper midfield, deeper forward line. Up against it returning to '22. Ripe for trade offers unfortunately
6. O'Brien...........Close to making the wing his own, seeing Carroll as a threat or mid squeeze taking a wing. Upgraded offer, but not massive.
7. Fogarty...........Classic "almost" player. Great depth, love him. Career decisions to make for the young man. Should attract offers if shops himself.
8. Curnow...........Sorry warrior, soft tissue injuries impacting as well as increased pressure to hold. Rookie spot as twos mentor maybe an option.
9. Newnes...........Played out season in ones 2021, triggered extension. Value depth if room on offer, but won't be a priority. Needs other trades to extend.

Sh1t what a formatting mess...sorry will try to fix later. So much effort, Grrrrrrrr

better than mostly anything I've seen in the media this season - fabulous rundown.....yes, matthew, even better than harry's.......

 

[TwiggleyFanClub]

Paddy Dow is Nick Graham V2.0

Too good for VFL, not good enough for AFL.

I would have thought so last year, but too many players are looking better under Voss to not give him a proper audition.

 

[TwiggleyFanClub]

I really like that Dow has got 30 touches in the VFL, two weeks in a row, the best thing for him currently is to build his confidence and work on whatever the coaching staff have identified as his areas of concern.

We will get injuries, we will get suspensions and there will be times players need a rest, when this happens, Paddy needs to be ready.

After watching Sundays game, I wonder if Hewett would have been better in Boyd’s role and Dow playing mid, I always have concerns we are too tall and wouldn’t mind Dow replacing TDK unless Tom can get involved more.

I'd prefer Hewett stays in the middle, and Stocker comes back in for Boyd.
Hewett is possibly the guy we have no replacement for at the moment (Curnow would be it I guess, but is a big drop down from Hewett).

 

[Arr0w]

I agree with this. Do you think Dow has the ability to be repurposed as a tagger to better learn running patterns etc?

On a similar burst type, absolutely, then get him back to winning the pill once he understands those running patterns

 

[Bletch]

how good is not discussing the national draft after round 3?

For sure...




Jedd Busslinger

 

[Aphrodite]

how good is not discussing the national draft after round 3?

What's the point.

We'll get Pick 18

 

[thylacine60]

What's the point.

We'll get Pick 18

would young reid take that for josh rachele?

 

[tarczonandjane]

Hewett (with his back of centre square work) is pretty much the most important player in the team. No one else performs that role as well as he does, and he allows Cripps and Kennedy to be attacking weapons. Can we please not shift him to half back?

As far as the original question is concerned, Dow will get his chances. For one thing, the starting five would all be a chance of getting covid at some stage (Cerra already has). I’m confident Dow will get more than enough opportunity to showcase where he is at.

 

[Blue and Blue]

Paddy will get his chance soon I feel. He has pace and tricks. No way are we going to let that go elsewhere.
Has yet to really get his body right because of a run of injuries, as was the case with Matt Kennedy so long for example.
See what happens when they do.

 

[Stamos]

What's the point.

We'll get Pick 18

No FS, Academy or top contract FAs this year?

 

[Aphrodite]

No FS, Academy or top contract FAs this year?

That's for another thread.

 

[Mikevk123]

Think Brendan Bolton ruined him personally. Hasn’t had the same flair since then. Has shown spades but often drifts out of games.

He should be playing though. Carlton’s mids are elite but Kennedy, Cripps, Setters and Hewett are all big bodies. Having Dow come in from the interchange and inter swap can stop the late game fade outs potentially.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Think Brendan Bolton ruined him personally. Hasn’t had the same flair since then. Has shown spades but often drifts out of games.

He should be playing though. Carlton’s mids are elite but Kennedy, Cripps, Setters and Hewett are all big bodies. Having Dow come in from the interchange and inter swap can stop the late game fade outs potentially.

Bolts certainly wasn't the one who 'ruined' him.

 

[katmanblue]

parish

The thought.

 

[katmanblue]

Interesting discussion. It's also about having the right mix in our mids.

Oppo clubs will be having a good look at the weekend's game in terms of a template to cause us some damage. They pretty much conceded stoppages, forced shallow forward 50 entries then destroyed us with run and spread on the rebound.

Walsh aside - do we have enough running power in our midfield group? I still feel like there's question marks over our wings. Just not sure that Dow is the answer until he proves he can run out 4 qtrs - and only the coaches would know if he's significantly improving in that area. Promising that from the match report - it was the 4th in the Ressies where it sounded like he dominated.

There'll be question marks over our wings until we win a flag.

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

Interesting discussion. It's also about having the right mix in our mids.

Oppo clubs will be having a good look at the weekend's game in terms of a template to cause us some damage. They pretty much conceded stoppages, forced shallow forward 50 entries then destroyed us with run and spread on the rebound.

Walsh aside - do we have enough running power in our midfield group? I still feel like there's question marks over our wings. Just not sure that Dow is the answer until he proves he can run out 4 qtrs - and only the coaches would know if he's significantly improving in that area. Promising that from the match report - it was the 4th in the Ressies where it sounded like he dominated.

That's why it's important to have players like Dow and Stocker in contention to play in the midfield,
both of them can kick goals from 60 on the run which puts that tactic in turmoil.

 

[bmaurizio]

Dow and a few others will be scrutinized & re- evaluated during the season, younger players should get a little more time to adjust to Vossy way.
However during trade period 2022 , a quality Ruckman & an additional KPD tall, should be on the agenda, Im expecting a few changes.

 

[Blue1980]

where does Dow sit in relation to Cuningham? When fit (i know that is a rare thing for cuners) who is closer to a spot in the 22?

Dow, as we don’t know how Cuningham will come back.

Based on how cuners went last year though, if he played like that again? Go cuners.

Realistically cuners vying for a spot with fisher

 

[Blue1980]

I was waiting for someone to throw that bomb. Dow is better than Graham, he has more grunt, strength and explosiveness and I predict he will have his moments at the top level. Graham just racked up numbers sheep-dogging behind contests, handball, handball kick - repeat.
The biggest knock on Dow is his ability to run out a game and his appetite to defend. He should be better by know so I feel the frustration. We will see.

Dow way more talented than NG, NG would run all day but very much a VFL player.

 

[Blue1980]

Interesting discussion. It's also about having the right mix in our mids.

Oppo clubs will be having a good look at the weekend's game in terms of a template to cause us some damage. They pretty much conceded stoppages, forced shallow forward 50 entries then destroyed us with run and spread on the rebound.

Walsh aside - do we have enough running power in our midfield group? I still feel like there's question marks over our wings. Just not sure that Dow is the answer until he proves he can run out 4 qtrs - and only the coaches would know if he's significantly improving in that area. Promising that from the match report - it was the 4th in the Ressies where it sounded like he dominated.

There is the difference from what we have seen, Kennedy can now run out games, we often save him up so he’s full of running in the last like v Dogs.

Just look at Kennedy physically now, he looks like a beast, ultra fit.

 

[Blue1980]

Greg Williams was a bit one dimensional too, slow ...

Diesel had a few more strings to his bow than Dow.

GOAT level user of the ball by hand and foot and could score goals too.

 

[YeahGnar]

Dow should rotate with Cerra every week. He needs to play at the front (FWD) end of the pack while Hewett or Cripps play at the back (Walsh/Kennedy circling in and out from the sides). Dow isn't set up defensively to stop the run if we lose the contest, but he has the burst to clear the pack from the front if the ball comes out over the top or he rips it out. Positioning means everything around the packs, and Dow is definitely the type that can damage at the FWD edge of the coalface and burst out a fair distance before passing. Cerra is better at getting the ball to boot quicker and finding a target with minimal time to think, normally 35-50 from goal.

Having both options available in game will be very handy for flexibility in structure. Use Cerra when we have good matchups at HF (Q1 last week), use Dow when we need to get extra distance from the clearance before kicking to get the ball deeper in F50 once opposition sets up across HB (Q2-4 last week).

The fact that we have a genuine gameplan now and 2 excellent midfield minds in Vossy & Greg Williams means that we can actually play these kinds of specific roles within the contest instead of having everyone just trying to get the ball and bombing into 50 like we have done over the last few years.

After last week, I'd be using Dow right now. Give me a call Vossy

 

[katmanblue]

Diesel had a few more strings to his bow than Dow.

GOAT level user of the ball by hand and foot and could score goals too.

Would also belt a bloke at the slightest provocation.