Autopsy 2024 Rd 13 Blues shoot down the Bombers to move into 2nd

[The Old Dark Navy's]

So whatshisface ... Hoyney from Champion Data said that Essendon should have won the game by 2 goals based on predictive scores.

I felt we deliberately set up for their high possession game and their run, by setting up well defensively. We sweated on their errors and attacked when when we could.

If they were more accurate, we could have reverted more to our usual game plan and attacked with more risk.

Our plan was working and we had no need to take risks. The scoreboard pressure was barely a factor for us.

I just felt like all the quality was our way and they were the ones under pressure.

 

[ESKIE]

Predictive Score … wtf takes nothing else into consideration?
Stupid

 

[Juddernaut08]

Yeah predictive score is pretty limited in the age of repeat entries.

Clearly winning 5 clean clearances leading to a deep i50 entry should be viewed differently to 5 quick bombs back i50 because we failed to clear their defensive zone after a missed shot, or if we simply repelled it.

 

[skadoosh]

So whatshisface ... Hoyney from Champion Data said that Essendon should have won the game by 2 goals based on predictive scores.

I felt we deliberately set up for their high possession game and their run, by setting up well defensively. We sweated on their errors and attacked when when we could.

If they were more accurate, we could have reverted more to our usual game plan and attacked with more risk.

Our plan was working and we had no need to take risks. The scoreboard pressure was barely a factor for us.

I just felt like all the quality was our way and they were the ones under pressure.

So pretty much, if they were better at this football thing, they would've won.
Who'd've thunk it?

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

So whatshisface ... Hoyney from Champion Data said that Essendon should have won the game by 2 goals based on predictive scores.

I felt we deliberately set up for their high possession game and their run, by setting up well defensively. We sweated on their errors and attacked when when we could.

If they were more accurate, we could have reverted more to our usual game plan and attacked with more risk.

Our plan was working and we had no need to take risks. The scoreboard pressure was barely a factor for us.

I just felt like all the quality was our way and they were the ones under pressure.

Predicted scores are the dumbest thing ever invented.

 

[Graffy4242]

Predicted scores are the dumbest thing ever invented.

Metres Gained says "hold my beer"

 

[Aphrodite]

Champion Data

 

[The_Wookie]

Some good analysis, and no one got sucked into the Essendon were 'unlucky' narrative.

I cut some parts out, the first half of the on the couch discussion was all poistive bomber crap

Bartel sees things others don't. Would make a great coach.

 

[Ezayyak]

To be fair, there were some parts of Essendon's game that worked well. Particularly in the third quarter. They definitely didn't drop their heads and kept persisting. We were just too professional and polished.

On a side note, the importance of the skills of Zac and Elijah cannot be overstated. When we needed to cut though the pressure or find the loose option those two were the ones with their exceptional skill and poise. We haven't had this for a long time (except in Martin's full fit matches.)

 

[jj1978]

Just a shout out to Vossy.

To make some crucial positional changes over the last few weeks has changed up our side.

Cincotta/Zac and even using Elijah through the middle more and TDK becoming that 4th mid with that crash and bash has been genius.

If our bottom six players continue to play their roles the rest will take care of itself.




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I think a bit of a lightbulb moment has transpired with some further reviews of our injuries and the injury prone players requiring the coaching team to not peg players in certain positions.

We had players like Cowan who were due for promotion but not at the expense for others so being creative was necessary.

Kudos to Zac for self rating his own poor form and happy to take the forward role challenge and same with Cinc on his new tagging affair.

TDK has now hit the games played and emotional maturity where it's starting to click, but to protect him still think we play Pitto in bits and spurts as we need TDK as healthy as possible come finals.

 

[Blue Reaper]

Yeah predictive score is pretty limited in the age of repeat entries.

Clearly winning 5 clean clearances leading to a deep i50 entry should be viewed differently to 5 quick bombs back i50 because we failed to clear their defensive zone after a missed shot, or if we simply repelled it.

Yep. This.

 

[jj1978]

Doull could have been commentating matches for the past 20 years. Just sitting quietly in the back of the Ch7 box. Still better than Jobe.

True, even just pointing the camera at him would tell a 1000 stories and what his views are on the game. Camera on Jobe and you just have episodes of the Muppet Show running through your mind.

 

[jj1978]

Predictive Score … wtf takes nothing else into consideration?
Stupid

Predictive score, we would've beaten Adelaide, Geelong and Pies. Hogwash load of bulldust.

 

[Coops93]

Advanced metrics can sometimes be useful, but also... sometimes a nonsense.

As has been said, sure expected score says that, but does expected score take into account us putting the game into cruise control for 2 and a half qtrs? Extra rotations for our star players, absorbing repeat inside 50s with a set defence, pushing them wider? Allowing cheap possessions but not many threatening ones?

We managed the game professionally, that may not show up in expected score but anyone watching can see it. Even Slobbo, an Essendon supporter who wrote an article saying how they'll tag half our team which will lead them to an easy win, said that it was clearly a professional and mature win by Carlton who were always in control.

Oh well, let them have their "advanced" metrics and moral win if it makes them feel better about beating no-one of note all year. We'll take the 4 points and 2nd spot on the ladder despite having the hardest draw in the comp with troops still to return, thanks.

 

[ESKIE]

Advanced metrics can sometimes be useful, but also... sometimes a nonsense.

As has been said, sure expected score says that, but does expected score take into account use putting the game into cruise control for 2 and a half qtrs? Extra rotations for our star players, absorbing repeat inside 50s with a set defence, pushing them wider? Allowing cheap possessions but not many threatening ones?

We managed the game professionally, that may not show up in expected score but anyone watching can see it. Even Slobbo, an Essendon supporter who wrote an article saying how they'll tag half our team which will lead them to an easy win, said that it was clearly a professional and mature win by Carlton who were always in control.

Oh well, let them have their "advanced" metrics and moral win if it makes them feel better about beating no-one of note all year. We'll take the 4 points and 2nd spot on the ladder despite having the hardest draw in the comp with troops still to return, thanks.

Well said

 

[Garters]

So whatshisface ... Hoyney from Champion Data said that Essendon should have won the game by 2 goals based on predictive scores.

I felt we deliberately set up for their high possession game and their run, by setting up well defensively. We sweated on their errors and attacked when when we could.

If they were more accurate, we could have reverted more to our usual game plan and attacked with more risk.

Our plan was working and we had no need to take risks. The scoreboard pressure was barely a factor for us.

I just felt like all the quality was our way and they were the ones under pressure.

It's interesting, because it shows the downfall of statistics with a game like this. If you completely shut down the corridor and force a run and gun side out wide they expend huge amounts of possession trying to get the ball in. Their 50 entries are shallow as they are forced to come in from long balls outside 50 and their shots on goal are from very low percentage places. The ease with which that game was executed by us was v impressive.

 

[SurreyBlue]

So Cincotta has been dropped?

Nowhere near forward line, so no.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

their shots on goal are from very low percentage places.

I not up with it but doesn't the predictive score take account of where the shots are from?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Nowhere near forward line, so no.

Cincotta to start in the middle if we're bringing in an extra fwd?
He's mostly been tagging from hf meaning we haven't given up a midfielder recently

 

[The Toad]

Are key forwards Kernahan+Spalding better or worse than Harry+Charlie?

Very hard to compare. It was a lot harder back when Sticks and the Duke were playing. No such thing as slapping the arm and a lot harder to get free kicks. They had to really earn their goals.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Very hard to compare. It was a lot harder back when Sticks and the Duke were playing. No such thing as slapping the arm and a lot harder to get free kicks. They had to really earn their goals.

No team/zone defence or flooding though

 

[agro]

True, even just pointing the camera at him would tell a 1000 stories and what his views are on the game. Camera on Jobe and you just have episodes of the Muppet Show running through your mind.

Or

 

[agro]

Doully did play games as a KPD but his absolute best was on the HBF.

I remember hearing Parko tell the story that he continually had to shift either Buzz or Johnno to the other side of the ground as they would both automatically line up on the same forward flank side that Doully played on because the service was so good.

Our wingman didn’t mind being on his side of the ground either - as he could spoil/punch the ball directly down there throats.

 

[jj1978]

Or

Pretty bang on

 

[Blue Reaper]

It's interesting, because it shows the downfall of statistics with a game like this. If you completely shut down the corridor and force a run and gun side out wide they expend huge amounts of possession trying to get the ball in. Their 50 entries are shallow as they are forced to come in from long balls outside 50 and their shots on goal are from very low percentage places. The ease with which that game was executed by us was v impressive.

Terrific observation