Opinion Paddy Dow, can you see a pathway for him to break into our best 22 or are we resigned to losing him?

What are Dow's chances of breaking into the best 22?

  • He's tracking towards a permanent AFL spot

    Votes: 80 40.0%

  • He'll only be injury cover for the foreseeable future but he'll stay at the club

    Votes: 43 21.5%

  • I can't see a spot for him and believe he might look elsewhere

    Votes: 77 38.5%
  • Total voters
    200

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I really like that Dow has got 30 touches in the VFL, two weeks in a row, the best thing for him currently is to build his confidence and work on whatever the coaching staff have identified as his areas of concern.

We will get injuries, we will get suspensions and there will be times players need a rest, when this happens, Paddy needs to be ready.

After watching Sundays game, I wonder if Hewett would have been better in Boyd’s role and Dow playing mid, I always have concerns we are too tall and wouldn’t mind Dow replacing TDK unless Tom can get involved more.
 
DangerousD said:
I really like that Dow has got 30 touches in the VFL, two weeks in a row, the best thing for him currently is to build his confidence and work on whatever the coaching staff have identified as his areas of concern.

We will get injuries, we will get suspensions and there will be times players need a rest, when this happens, Paddy needs to be ready.

After watching Sundays game, I wonder if Hewett would have been better in Boyd’s role and Dow playing mid, I always have concerns we are too tall and wouldn’t mind Dow replacing TDK unless Tom can get involved more.
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Think that will be the big bonus with Hewett, that he can & probably will be a defender at some stage, though loving his work on the middle.

Maybe a couple more weeks for Paddy in the 2’s before a run in the seniors, though he needs a decent run for TOG (and responsibility in the middle).
 

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I think one of Cripps, Cerra, Hewett, Walsh or Kennedy would have to be injured / suspended before Dow is considered. We missed Walsh in Round 1 and Cerra in Round 2.

Then there’s Carroll, Philp, Cuningham and Ed Curnow.

It’s a nice problem to have.
 
where does Dow sit in relation to Cuningham? When fit (i know that is a rare thing for cuners) who is closer to a spot in the 22?
 
Blue Reaper said:
I’m eager to see what Dow can eventually do with the new system, coaching & structure, and alongside the improvement of the fab5. Add natural development, and I think he’ll come along in leaps & bounds.

Yep, I’m bullish.
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Yeap the coaching structure with a stand alone vfl side means Dow gets the opportunity for proper development. He is going to be a beauty imo.
 
blue89 said:
where does Dow sit in relation to Cuningham? When fit (i know that is a rare thing for cuners) who is closer to a spot in the 22?
Click to expand...
Cuningham has the versatility to play outside with pace which is an area we are weak in, and is a more than handy forward. On the same basis, Philp is probably ahead of Dow too and he can play inside a bit.

Dow is limited to inside midfield and probably has a couple ahead of him to get a spot in the 22.
 
Metalcrusher said:
Paddy Dow is Nick Graham V2.0

Too good for VFL, not good enough for AFL.
Click to expand...
I was waiting for someone to throw that bomb. Dow is better than Graham, he has more grunt, strength and explosiveness and I predict he will have his moments at the top level. Graham just racked up numbers sheep-dogging behind contests, handball, handball kick - repeat.
The biggest knock on Dow is his ability to run out a game and his appetite to defend. He should be better by know so I feel the frustration. We will see.
 
WFGodot said:
I was waiting for someone to throw that bomb. Dow is better than Graham, he has more grunt, strength and explosiveness and I predict he will have his moments at the top level. Graham just racked up numbers sheep-dogging behind contests, handball, handball kick - repeat.
The biggest knock on Dow is his ability to run out a game and his appetite to defend. He should be better by know so I feel the frustration. We will see.
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I wouldn't say better, I would say different

Graham was actually a very good reader of the play, strong footy IQ, but had minimal athletic qualities.

Dow has athletic qualities, but lacks the footy IQ
 
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Coops93 said:
Cripps
Walsh
Cerra
Hewett
Kennedy
Setterfield
Docherty (I've notice him around contests and event the odd centre bounce)
Fisher
O'Brien
Martin

The thing with being a rotational mid is you need a secondary (or primary) position outside of being a follower. Setterfield, Doc, Fisher, Martin and O'Brien have been the rotations mostly, from the wings and half back/forward with Newman also hanging around the contest at times.

To get in the team Dow would need to supplant one of the genuine mids, so one of Cripps, Cerra, Walsh, Kennedy or Hewett really as he doesn't have the secondary position that the rotational unit do. Unfortunately for him he's likely depending on a injury to the primary mids to get a look in.
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Gee our depth must be immense as Carroll, Philp and Stocker didn’t even get a look in on that list - all ripper future mid options. Maybe this is why b/w AFL/VFL we are 5-0 so far 😊

Happy days gang.
 
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BlueJet said:
We lack what he can provide - burst from stoppage, so I can see him being given every chance to make it.
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As we've seen, having good structure and being quick decision makers means we burst out of the centre square netter than anyone.

Not sure his burst pace is desperately needed, particularly if not at effective in team structure or he makes poor decisions.
 
Arr0w said:
I wouldn't say better, I would say different

Graham was actually a very good reader of thr play, strong footy IQ, but had minimal athletic qualities.

Dow has athletic qualities, but lacks the footy IQ
Click to expand...
I agree with this. Do you think Dow has the ability to be repurposed as a tagger to better learn running patterns etc?
 
BlueJet said:
We lack what he can provide - burst from stoppage, so I can see him being given every chance to make it.
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We don't really lack that though do we? At no point have I really thought "Crap we look slow out of the stoppage". Cerra, Walsh and Kennedy have plenty of power out of the stoppage. Cripps too is picking his spots better and bursts out of a stoppage when the time is right.

Dow might have a better 10m acceleration than the other guys but having said that it's not as though it would change the dynamic of our midfield. We already are surging forward from the contest with pace.
 
Paddy has been relatively slow burn to date. I have been a critic because his undoubted one wood, being fast hands and ability to break from the contest was on display only spasmodically. My biggest knock has always been the lack of intent and effort defensively. Given our midfield group, I have been amazed at the opportunity he has received while others had to lament in the twos or adapt to other positions.

He has started the season well. I commented that he worked in to the game on Sunday after being quiet early. The revelation that he copped a significant tag and managed to work through it adds to the performance, so credit where it is due. He was spoon fed by the under rated Mirkov, particularly evident by that breakaway goal seen on highlight reels. That is no slight as mids have to work with/to their ruckman.

I have no doubt Dow will be a quality AFL midfielder. Without significant change up I question his ceiling due to defensive shortcomings. It is fair to say that in the right midfield with appropriate support he could be a "star". I do see comparisons with Will Brodie who struggled to cement a spot before his move to the Dockers. It remains to be seen if Brodie can retain his spot when the likes of Fyfe, Mundy and Serong are back in the picture. I am thinking Paddy's ceiling is higher, but struggle to see regular opportunity with us.

Our midfield dynamic has

Patrick Cripps 27 years Contracted until the end of 2027 195cm 95kg Extractor first and foremost, but able to play as a key forward if needed
George Hewett 26/3 months " " " 2025 187cm 84kg Inside/outside mid, tagger and able to lockdown or rebound in defence
Matt Kennedy 24/11 " " " 2022 190cm 90kg Inside/outside mid, capable of playing effectively as a tall forward option
Adam Cerra 22/5 " " " 2025 187cm 86kg Inside/outside mid, proven off half back and half forward
Sam Walsh 21/9 " " " 2026 184cm 83kg Inside outside mid. Versatile enough to play half forward or half back
Will Setterfield 24/2 " " " 2022 192cm 86kg Inside/outside mid, making wing his own a bit surprisingly. OK back/fwd

Generation next?
Paddy Dow 22/5 " " " 2022 187cm 83kg Inside midfielder. To date largely ineffective outside and forward
Jack Carroll 19/3 " " " 2024 188cm 81kg Inside/outside mid, wing, half back, half forward

Possible/probable mids?
Liam Stocker 22/2 " " " 2022 184cm 85kg Defender, inside mid and possibly effective in other roles
Brodie Kemp 20/11 " " " 2023 193cm 87kg Versatile tall defender, forward, inside/outside mid. Taller than listed.
Sam Philp 20/3 " " " 2023 186cm 83kg Inside/outside mid, half forward, probably half back
Zac Williams 27/6 " " " 2026 185cm 86kg Half back, midfield, wing, half forward
Zac Fisher 23/9 " " " 2023 179cm 76kg Forward, inside/outside mid. Added some bulk
Lachie Fogarty 23 " " " 2022 180cm 78kg Forward, midfielder

Purely outside
Lachie O'Brien 22/6 " " " 2022 185cm 82kg Wing, half back

LTI
David Cuningham 25 " " " 2022 186cm 84kg Inside/outside, half forward. Genuine utility

Sunset staples
Ed Curnow
Jack Newnes

Pinch hitters
Jack Silvagni
Jack Martin
Corey Durdin
Jesse Motlop

We will offer Paddy Dow the best contract we can. If he is happy and prepared to bide his time, he will accept it. Realistically it will be nowhere near outside offers he will get. Richmond where his brother plays, North where he has family ties, rebuilding West Coast, St Kilda, Dad's army Geelong, maybe the Gold Coast and even Freo or Port where their developing mids are on the small side. All are potential suitors, all will want a "bargain", but I can see a Dutch auction happening if we can showcase him through the season.

With natural progression as outlined by his start to the season, he is a front line mid in any team without a settled engine room in 2023. His future will be linked with Bam Bam. Many, including me, see MK likely to sign a significantly upgraded, but not ridiculous contract and stay with the team. If someone comes knocking with a grand daddy offer he can walk unencumbered opening a career path for Dow.

Clearly from the above list, we have numerous options coming through.

Of the out of contract players highlighted in blue, I see the priority being
1. Kennedy.........incumbent engine room member, playing excellent football.
2. Stocker..........point of difference hard nut with sublime disposal(usually) Doc, Saad, Williams, Newy, even Plow closing on thirty TOGETHER, need to .......................spread the age dynamic down back
3. Setterfield......re-established himself as a midfield staple by owning that defensive wing. Have other options so won't be offered huge contract
4. Dow..............unlucky, although missed opportunity to book his long term spot earlier. Finally approaching maturity, timing off. Expendable, so won't ........................get a massive offer from us.
5. Cuningham.....Gun, finally maturing before ACL. Deeper midfield, deeper forward line. Up against it returning to '22. Ripe for trade offers unfortunately
6. O'Brien...........Close to making the wing his own, seeing Carroll as a threat or mid squeeze taking a wing. Upgraded offer, but not massive.
7. Fogarty...........Classic "almost" player. Great depth, love him. Career decisions to make for the young man. Should attract offers if shops himself.
8. Curnow...........Sorry warrior, soft tissue injuries impacting as well as increased pressure to hold. Rookie spot as twos mentor maybe an option.
9. Newnes...........Played out season in ones 2021, triggered extension. Value depth if room on offer, but won't be a priority. Needs other trades to extend.

Sh1t what a formatting mess...sorry will try to fix later. So much effort, Grrrrrrrr
 
rp84 said:
As we've seen, having good structure and being quick decision makers means we burst out of the centre square netter than anyone.

Not sure his burst pace is desperately needed, particularly if not at effective in team structure or he makes poor decisions.
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It isn't essential but it can be incredibly valuable if your midfield is setup correctly - especially when decisive ball movement leads to Harry & Charlie being left 1v1, deep.
We've seen from Kennedy what proper structures can do for a player, his weaknesses remain the same, our coaches have just put in place schemes to mitigate these weaknesses, there's nothing to say that we're incapable of doing the same for Dow.
 
Interesting discussion. It's also about having the right mix in our mids.

Oppo clubs will be having a good look at the weekend's game in terms of a template to cause us some damage. They pretty much conceded stoppages, forced shallow forward 50 entries then destroyed us with run and spread on the rebound.

Walsh aside - do we have enough running power in our midfield group? I still feel like there's question marks over our wings. Just not sure that Dow is the answer until he proves he can run out 4 qtrs - and only the coaches would know if he's significantly improving in that area. Promising that from the match report - it was the 4th in the Ressies where it sounded like he dominated.
 
Happy to keep him around, but suspect if he only plays a small number of AFL games this year he'll look elsewhere for opportunity (Richmond and North Melbourne both stand out as needing potential AFL-calibre midfielders).
 
I think a drop in form from someone like Kennedy would mean a spell in the ressies. Others are more high profile and can be 'carried' for want of a better term. That will open up an opportunity for Dow. Alternately, an injury.

We see this with good sides where players are stuck in the 2's with little opportunity. I think he'll see the writing is on the wall and finish up going elsewhere next year.
 
BlueJet said:
We lack what he can provide - burst from stoppage, so I can see him being given every chance to make it.
Click to expand...
Do we lack that at present???

Kennedy, Cerra and Cripps have all exited a centre bounce at pace this year. It's part of why we're flying; we're not just getting clearances but good clearances.

I like Dow. I want Dow to succeed and I think he will get his shot at some point this year, given that it's round 3 and people are mentally trading him already. But I don't think we need to manufacture something that is only there if you squint and cross your eyes to try to shoehorn him in.

We've pace around the edges of a stoppage - Doc, Williams, LOB, Saad, Fisher, Durdin - where we need it, and the three main midfielders are exiting a stoppage plenty quickly at present.
 

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Opinion Paddy Dow, can you see a pathway for him to break into our best 22 or are we resigned to losing him?

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