Ghost Patrol
Incognito Moderatore
- Sep 17, 2019
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- #1,326
The LNP candidate was both a swinger and a pirate.
This was well known beforehand.
No seat was lost.
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Peter Dutton - How Long?
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The LNP candidate was both a swinger and a pirate.
This was well known beforehand.
No seat was lost.
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- #1,327
- Oct 9, 2006
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- Super Tottenham....from the Lane.
What a surprise, Dutton being a shitcampaigner again.
amp.theguardian.com
These racists really have no character.
‘Deeply misleading’: legal expert furious no campaign used his previous voice concerns in pamphlet | Indigenous voice to parliament | The Guardian
Prof Greg Craven will complain to electoral commission after being quoted in no pamphlet despite writing to Peter Dutton’s office last week
These racists really have no character.
My guess would be that it is the norm for incumbent governments to be upbraided a bit by the electorate in by-elections. Perhaps because of cost of living concerns as you suggest or perhaps in what is obviously a deeply conservative electorate there in opposition to the voice.
Would you mind restating your position? I’ve not followed the whole argument, my apologies. (The post I’ve quoted of yours contains a question but no position as such).
Is it your contention that this election is representative of a wider trend? That Dutton is doing a good job & on track to win back seats at the next federal election? Or?
- Aug 2, 2012
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They shouldn't misquote people, but they haven't in this case, and Flip Flop Craven only has himself to blame.What a surprise, Dutton being a shitcampaigner again.
‘Deeply misleading’: legal expert furious no campaign used his previous voice concerns in pamphlet | Indigenous voice to parliament | The Guardian
Prof Greg Craven will complain to electoral commission after being quoted in no pamphlet despite writing to Peter Dutton’s office last week
These racists really have no character.
- Oct 9, 2006
- 22,755
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- Super Tottenham....from the Lane.
To be fair Craven changed his position after amendments were made and asked not to be quoted in the pamphlet.
It's Dutton and his racist mates claiming support where such support has been withdrawn. Craven is absolutely entitled to change his position. And it is disingenuous of the "no" campaign to use a person's previous opinion as a tool.
I used to believe in capital punishment. I have changed my view on that. Should I be held accountable for my previous position?
- Aug 2, 2012
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He changed his position twice
- Oct 9, 2006
- 22,755
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- Super Tottenham....from the Lane.
All the more reason for the No Campaign to stop using his quotes.
People are entitled to change their position. Multiple times if they see fit. Intelligent people are able to change their position as information changes. Bottomfeeders like Dutton on the other hand look for reasons to create doubt and controversy.
- Sep 15, 2011
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When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do?
- Aug 2, 2012
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Me too.
But Craven changed his opinion twice without the facts changing.
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- #1,337
I’m positing as to why the 1April Aston by-election was a 6.4% swing to Labor yet the 15 July Fadden by-election was a 2.7% to LNP despite Robodebt, Stuart Robert, and apparently an “awful” Peter Dutton .
There are claims on here that Labor are still sitting pretty because of the Preferred PM and TPP polls and that Dutton is light years away from even remotely winning an election.
Well …. Why the change between April and July ?
What happened ?
- Banned
- #1,338
What a surprise, Dutton being a shitcampaigner again.
‘Deeply misleading’: legal expert furious no campaign used his previous voice concerns in pamphlet | Indigenous voice to parliament | The Guardian
Prof Greg Craven will complain to electoral commission after being quoted in no pamphlet despite writing to Peter Dutton’s office last week
These racists really have no character.
lolIf you don’t mean it don’t say it
Can’t unring that bell
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- Jul 5, 2012
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- Kidding, right?
I think it’s pretty clear that if Labor doesn’t win every bye-election by a record-breaking margin the honeymoon is over.
When does Dutton’s honeymoon happen?
Newscorpse have a serious challenge this time. It is one thing polishing a turd. It is a whole other thing to polish the turd that lost to Morrison
sherb
Hall of Famer
With respect, I think you are looking at this the wrong way around.
What happened in Fadden was the norm for a by-election. Aston was completely the opposite.
So the question really isn't what happened between the two by-elections, or what happened in Fadden.
The question is actually what on earth happened in Aston?
GreyWind
Norm Smith Medallist
Really was a perfect storm for Labor to win a by-election.
LNP were on the nose in Victoria at both State and Federal level.
Dutton as Opposition Leader and being unpopular in Victoria along with his comments on China.
LNP candidate being from Brunswick, compared to the relative local of the ALP who was a known face from the prior Fed Election.
Vic Libs utterly imploded that week with Nazis and RWNJs.
Tudge not being liked and leaving in scandal.
Also Fadden only had a 70.5% turn out and of that 6.8% voted informally. Compared to Aston that had an 85.6% turn out and only 3.3% informal vote.
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I don’t mean to be difficult but you still haven’t actually posited anything. You’re asking a question. That’s not taking a position.
There has been a number of answers suggested for your question which you haven’t commented on including, I think, the excellent point that Fadden is more the norm in this situation while Aston was a huge outlier. I gave some other possible explanations. What do you think of them?
So what do you think? What’s your suggestion as to what happened? Do you find it especially significant that a seat that’s never been in Labor hands continues to vote the way it always has? Do you find the small swing against the incumbent government especially significant in this case?
Try making an argument for something rather than just asking another question.
Could it simply be demographics? From what I know Fadden is on the Gold Coast in Queensland. Just a guesstimate but I'd say retirees make up at least a sizeable portion of the electorate.
Aston is in outer eastern Melbourne. Foot of the Dandenongs. Bit of a mortgage belt. Working families.
Different populations with different priorities?
You are expecting too much detail from a single piece of information.
Caldwell is still 12,000 2PP votes behind on Roberts 2022 result.
Some 30% of the eligible voters declined their democratic right to send a message of condemnation or support for either the government or opposition. That is a lot of apathetic voters and your answer lies within that cohort of voters not those that turned up.
Or you could equally conclude from the data you provided, a qld opposition leader is good for a 2.7% swing in Queensland and -6.4% swing everywhere else.
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- #1,347
Interesting thoughts. Good to get reasonable thought out responses rather than the infantile answers previously posted
Sun Ra
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Maybe you should read this ..... from The Age.
As teal seats harden against Liberals, Dutton markets himself as Prime Minister for Queensland
By Niki Savva
July 20, 2023 — 5.00amIf every seat was like Fadden, Peter Dutton would be Australia’s prime minister in waiting today.
At Saturday’s byelection, the Liberal primary vote went up, the Greens vote fell spectacularly and none of it went to Labor which suffered a small drop in its vote. The result proved Queensland remains a black hole for Labor and should spike any complacency inside the Albanese government.
The Prime Minister for Queensland.CREDIT: JOHN SHAKESPEARE
Unfortunately for Liberals elated after holding a seat they were never going to lose, Fadden is a long way geographically and in many other ways from the seats Dutton needs to win if he is ever to get back into government.
In the heartland seats lost in 2022, independent MPs stepping up their campaigns for the referendum have found – apart from unsurprisingly strong support for the Voice– a hardening of sentiment against the Liberals. Not just over the referendum but also the pervasive negativity, the difficulty connecting with women and the failure to comprehend that robo-debt was tied to integrity – one of the three issues central to the success of the teals.
Three independent MPs I spoke to – Kate Chaney in Curtin, Helen Haines in Indi and Monique Ryan in Kooyong – all reported similar feedback.
Yet, the response from the Liberal hard right to the threat of a schism which 2022 portended has been a redoubling of efforts to purge moderates from the party by stripping them of their pre-selections.
According to senior Liberals, a potential challenger had been lined up against Julian Leeser in Berowra, as punishment for daring to back the Voice. That apparently collapsed after an eligibility issue emerged, however insiders say both deputy leader Sussan Ley in Farrer and Melissa McIntosh in Lindsay, are almost certain to lose to conservative challengers.
Right-wing powerbroker Alex Dore has even discussed running Katherine Deves again in Warringah. Seriously.
Dutton’s demand for early pre-selections in NSW seats has been blamed for firing up the factional tensions. Through an intermediary, the NSW division will ask him to hold off on the teal seats, but there was little confidence he would agree. Dutton is seldom heard boasting about the beauteous broad church that is the Liberal Party.
He has shrugged off warnings from the NSW president, former MP Jason Falinski, that conducting all preselections before the redistribution will not attract the best candidates, or could mean some will have to be redone later if say Bradfield, held by frontbencher Paul Fletcher, is abolished.
Dutton has paraded his utter ruthlessness since he lost Aston. In the fight for Fadden no dollar was spared, no line went uncrossed.
He delivered cursory apologies on robo-debt while justifying tough action against welfare recipients because hardworking taxpayers wanted overpayments to be repaid. Yes, they do. But they don’t want governments running illegal operations which demonise then hound people – in some cases to their death – for money they do not owe, lie to defend the scheme or cover up, then escape penalties.
He skated over alleged criminal behaviour during the Coalition’s time to accuse the government of politicising the issue. He smeared two highly respected senior public servants, Steven Kennedy and Jenny Wilkinson, for no good reason other than to politicise the government’s announcement that Michele Bullock would replace Philip Lowe as Reserve Bank Governor.
He warned Bunnings to stop donating to the Yes campaign and instead use the money to lower prices. Less than 24 hours later a racist, sexist, McCarthyist cartoon appeared featuring the head of Bunnings, Michael Chaney, with his daughter, Kate, sitting on his lap and Yes campaigner Thomas Mayo dancing for a fistful of dollars wearing a T-shirt adorned by a hammer and sickle. All designed to shame or bully them into backing off. Coincidence? Methinks not. Disgraceful? Undeniably.
Mayo says he has never been a member of the communist party as alleged by No campaigners. Anyways, better a communist than a racist I reckon.
Soon after, Kate Chaney held a public meeting with Mayo, the former chief justice of the High Court Robert French, and former Australian of the year Fiona Stanley, which attracted more than 600 people – more than any other gathering she has organised.
Chaney says she hopes the cartoon, which Warren Mundine thought was funny, marked a turning point and the No campaign now realises that such tactics don’t resonate with mainstream Australians.
Haines will host a sold-out meeting in Wodonga on July 25. Around 400 people have booked to hear Linda Burney and Dean Parkin argue for Yes.
“Dutton has picked the wrong fight to have if he is seeking to win back the independent seats,” Haines says. She warns if he continues as he has, voters in those seats will only get more “browned off”.
Ryan, with more than 200 volunteers – up from 12 six weeks ago – has doorknocked more than 6000 homes. She says they are on track to knock on every door in Kooyong well before the referendum, then will move into Liberal-held seats Menzies and Deakin.
Having gone out with her teams five times, Ryan reports increasing impatience with the Liberals’ ongoing negativity, disappointment and shame over robo-debt, concern about cost of living but still no real anger directed at Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Data collated from 2500 of the doors knocked shows 45.1 per cent strong support for the voice, 13.4 per cent simply supporting, 30.6 per cent neutral or unsure, 5.9 per cent opposing, and 5.4 per cent strongly opposing.
Obviously, this does not tell us what Australians elsewhere are thinking or if the referendum will succeed. It does show if Dutton continues to market himself as Prime Minister for Queensland chances of regaining the teal seats are slim to nothing. Unless Liberal candidates disconnect from their party and their leader.
Which poses an exquisitely delicate dilemma for Josh Frydenberg if – still a big if – he seeks to reclaim Kooyong in 2025. To have any chance of winning, Frydenberg would not only have to run against Monique Ryan, but Dutton too.
- Banned
- #1,349
I did by arguing against the position by posters based on opinion polls.
And at the fear of opening up the Voice can of worms, I believe that has been a major factor.
- Banned
- #1,350
All due respect butMaybe you should read this ..... from The Age.
As teal seats harden against Liberals, Dutton markets himself as Prime Minister for Queensland
By Niki Savva
July 20, 2023 — 5.00am
If every seat was like Fadden, Peter Dutton would be Australia’s prime minister in waiting today.
At Saturday’s byelection, the Liberal primary vote went up, the Greens vote fell spectacularly and none of it went to Labor which suffered a small drop in its vote. The result proved Queensland remains a black hole for Labor and should spike any complacency inside the Albanese government.
The Prime Minister for Queensland.CREDIT: JOHN SHAKESPEARE
Unfortunately for Liberals elated after holding a seat they were never going to lose, Fadden is a long way geographically and in many other ways from the seats Dutton needs to win if he is ever to get back into government.
In the heartland seats lost in 2022, independent MPs stepping up their campaigns for the referendum have found – apart from unsurprisingly strong support for the Voice– a hardening of sentiment against the Liberals. Not just over the referendum but also the pervasive negativity, the difficulty connecting with women and the failure to comprehend that robo-debt was tied to integrity – one of the three issues central to the success of the teals.
Three independent MPs I spoke to – Kate Chaney in Curtin, Helen Haines in Indi and Monique Ryan in Kooyong – all reported similar feedback.
Yet, the response from the Liberal hard right to the threat of a schism which 2022 portended has been a redoubling of efforts to purge moderates from the party by stripping them of their pre-selections.
According to senior Liberals, a potential challenger had been lined up against Julian Leeser in Berowra, as punishment for daring to back the Voice. That apparently collapsed after an eligibility issue emerged, however insiders say both deputy leader Sussan Ley in Farrer and Melissa McIntosh in Lindsay, are almost certain to lose to conservative challengers.
Right-wing powerbroker Alex Dore has even discussed running Katherine Deves again in Warringah. Seriously.
Dutton’s demand for early pre-selections in NSW seats has been blamed for firing up the factional tensions. Through an intermediary, the NSW division will ask him to hold off on the teal seats, but there was little confidence he would agree. Dutton is seldom heard boasting about the beauteous broad church that is the Liberal Party.
He has shrugged off warnings from the NSW president, former MP Jason Falinski, that conducting all preselections before the redistribution will not attract the best candidates, or could mean some will have to be redone later if say Bradfield, held by frontbencher Paul Fletcher, is abolished.
Dutton has paraded his utter ruthlessness since he lost Aston. In the fight for Fadden no dollar was spared, no line went uncrossed.
He delivered cursory apologies on robo-debt while justifying tough action against welfare recipients because hardworking taxpayers wanted overpayments to be repaid. Yes, they do. But they don’t want governments running illegal operations which demonise then hound people – in some cases to their death – for money they do not owe, lie to defend the scheme or cover up, then escape penalties.
He skated over alleged criminal behaviour during the Coalition’s time to accuse the government of politicising the issue. He smeared two highly respected senior public servants, Steven Kennedy and Jenny Wilkinson, for no good reason other than to politicise the government’s announcement that Michele Bullock would replace Philip Lowe as Reserve Bank Governor.
He warned Bunnings to stop donating to the Yes campaign and instead use the money to lower prices. Less than 24 hours later a racist, sexist, McCarthyist cartoon appeared featuring the head of Bunnings, Michael Chaney, with his daughter, Kate, sitting on his lap and Yes campaigner Thomas Mayo dancing for a fistful of dollars wearing a T-shirt adorned by a hammer and sickle. All designed to shame or bully them into backing off. Coincidence? Methinks not. Disgraceful? Undeniably.
Mayo says he has never been a member of the communist party as alleged by No campaigners. Anyways, better a communist than a racist I reckon.
Soon after, Kate Chaney held a public meeting with Mayo, the former chief justice of the High Court Robert French, and former Australian of the year Fiona Stanley, which attracted more than 600 people – more than any other gathering she has organised.
Chaney says she hopes the cartoon, which Warren Mundine thought was funny, marked a turning point and the No campaign now realises that such tactics don’t resonate with mainstream Australians.
Haines will host a sold-out meeting in Wodonga on July 25. Around 400 people have booked to hear Linda Burney and Dean Parkin argue for Yes.
“Dutton has picked the wrong fight to have if he is seeking to win back the independent seats,” Haines says. She warns if he continues as he has, voters in those seats will only get more “browned off”.
Ryan, with more than 200 volunteers – up from 12 six weeks ago – has doorknocked more than 6000 homes. She says they are on track to knock on every door in Kooyong well before the referendum, then will move into Liberal-held seats Menzies and Deakin.
Having gone out with her teams five times, Ryan reports increasing impatience with the Liberals’ ongoing negativity, disappointment and shame over robo-debt, concern about cost of living but still no real anger directed at Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Data collated from 2500 of the doors knocked shows 45.1 per cent strong support for the voice, 13.4 per cent simply supporting, 30.6 per cent neutral or unsure, 5.9 per cent opposing, and 5.4 per cent strongly opposing.
Obviously, this does not tell us what Australians elsewhere are thinking or if the referendum will succeed. It does show if Dutton continues to market himself as Prime Minister for Queensland chances of regaining the teal seats are slim to nothing. Unless Liberal candidates disconnect from their party and their leader.
Which poses an exquisitely delicate dilemma for Josh Frydenberg if – still a big if – he seeks to reclaim Kooyong in 2025. To have any chance of winning, Frydenberg would not only have to run against Monique Ryan, but Dutton too.
Niki Savva ?
Nah
