Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[bzparkes]

You don’t seriously believe this do you? There isn’t just smoke, it’s a bloody bush fire in Tongala.

And?
Plenty of highly rated players in the past didn't want to go interstate, yet end up playing out their careers at the club they're drafted to.

You don't change your draft strategy because one player wanted out after 12 months a couple of years earlier.

 

[Psicosis]

On paper, 2 + 15 for 1 isn't unders but that isn't a deal we should be entertaining. Then factor in how far pick 15 is likely to slide and that offer is well short.

I would expect two top 10's to be the minimum.

Yeah, it isn’t unders. 2x top 10s is obviously ideal, but in all likelihood, it’s unlikely anyone bar North has 2x top 10s.

2 and 15 is unders and it’s difficult to argue other wise.

When Adelaide put an offer to NM for pick 1. The deal was pick 4, a future first (pick 4) and Demons future first (14).

GWS was willing to part with 3, 12 and Collingwoods future 2nd to get pick 1 in the Mega trade last year.

Those deals were so clubs could have access to JHF and Aaron Cadman, and I’d place Reid as a higher talent than those two.

So in that sense, 2 and what is currently pick 16 is well unders.

If you’re expecting a JHF deal I personally think you’ll be disappointed. You also neglected the fact that 14 was exchanged for Norths pick 19. There were also circumstances around that offer, the key one being that Jason was South Australian and the Crows knew he’d go to Port if he ever was traded.

Is 3, 12 and a future second (pick 36) that different from 2 and 15? I don’t think it is. WCE traded pick 2 for 8 & 12 for further context.

Reid a higher talent then JHF? Yeah I don’t think that’s the perception amongst most recruiters.

Ah here we go. Another know it all that's knows nothing. Wasting Oxygen.

Haha with all due respect, you’re delusional if you think Harley is happy with leaving Victoria.

 

[Psicosis]

And?
Plenty of highly rated players in the past didn't want to go interstate, yet end up playing out their careers at the club they're drafted to.

You don't change your draft strategy because one player wanted out after 12 months a couple of years earlier.

Who was the last player that was vocal about not wanting to move interstate yet was still drafted there?

 

[Free Agent]

Yeah, it isn’t unders. 2x top 10s is obviously ideal, but in all likelihood, it’s unlikely anyone bar North has 2x top 10s.


If you’re expecting a JHF deal I personally think you’ll be disappointed. You also neglected the fact that 14 was exchanged for Norths pick 19. There were also circumstances around that offer, the key one being that Jason was South Australian and the Crows knew he’d go to Port if he ever was traded.

Is 3, 12 and a future second (pick 36) that different from 2 and 15? I don’t think it is. WCE traded pick 2 for 8 & 12 for further context.

Reid a higher talent then JHF? Yeah I don’t think that’s the perception amongst most recruiters.


Haha with all due respect, you’re delusional if you think Harley is happy with leaving Victoria.

You're delusional thinking Harley Reid is from Melbourne.

His a Bendigo lad. Will be relocating no matter what club so your point is invalid.

 

[Barrybran]

Yeah, it isn’t unders. 2x top 10s is obviously ideal, but in all likelihood, it’s unlikely anyone bar North has 2x top 10s.

Melbourne (via GC) is the only one that jumps out. I think Hawthorn are too short but they can throw in Brockman and Granger-Barrass to any offer.

 

[Psicosis]

You're delusional thinking Harley Reid is from Melbourne.

His a Bendigo lad. Will be relocating no matter what club so your point is invalid.

If you’re going to correct me, at least do it correctly. I said Victoria.

 

[Psicosis]

Melbourne (via GC) is the only one that jumps out. I think Hawthorn are too short but they can throw in Brockman and Granger-Barrass to any offer.

Yeah as I said earlier, if Melbourne gets the GC pick that’s a great offer that WCE should take. It likely won’t net them Curtin though, which regardless of what some WCE posters suggest, does become a factor.

I wouldn’t be touching Brockman or DGB in a trade involving Pick 1 if I were the Eagles.

 

[Free Agent]

If you’re going to correct me, at least do it correctly. I said Victoria.

No you keep alluring to going home factor which is incorrect. There's absolutely no go home factor because Reid would be required to travel and relocate regardless of what club he goes too. Your point of him being Victorian is invalid on that bases. There is no Bendigo team in the AFL. Reid would give two shits about Melbourne as his not a city boy.

 

[Obeanie1]

You don’t seriously believe this do you? There isn’t just smoke, it’s a bloody bush fire in Tongala.

Rory Sloan cried when the Crows selected him. Did not want to move interestate.

Good clubs retain players and Eagles havent lost many at all.

So that is one 'shadow' the Eagles don't jump at unless for very good reason.

 

[Bluelegs]

So Melbourne could offer pick 5 via Freo, van royen and their 1st (around 15)

I'd be pretty annoyed if JVR was on the table. Too important for our structure to let go.

 

[Obeanie1]

Yeah as I said earlier, if Melbourne gets the GC pick that’s a great offer that WCE should take. It likely won’t net them Curtin though, which regardless of what some WCE posters suggest, does become a factor.

I wouldn’t be touching Brockman or DGB in a trade involving Pick 1 if I were the Eagles.

They wont use pick 1 on Curtin. Agreed?

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

Yeah, it isn’t unders. 2x top 10s is obviously ideal, but in all likelihood, it’s unlikely anyone bar North has 2x top 10s.


If you’re expecting a JHF deal I personally think you’ll be disappointed. You also neglected the fact that 14 was exchanged for Norths pick 19. There were also circumstances around that offer, the key one being that Jason was South Australian and the Crows knew he’d go to Port if he ever was traded.

Is 3, 12 and a future second (pick 36) that different from 2 and 15? I don’t think it is. WCE traded pick 2 for 8 & 12 for further context.

Reid a higher talent then JHF? Yeah I don’t think that’s the perception amongst most recruiters.


Haha with all due respect, you’re delusional if you think Harley is happy with leaving Victoria.

I think you’re right in the sense that there’s no natural trade that will likely satisfy west coast.

But that doesn’t mean West Coast should or will accept unders (and what you put forward is definite unders).

In that regard, unless it is something similar to what North were offered for pick 1 in 2021, West Coast will take Reid.

And yes, I’m pretty sure the consensus view is Reid>>> JHF in their respective draft years.

 

[Psicosis]

No you keep alluring to going home factor which is incorrect. There's absolutely no go home factor because Reid would be required to travel and relocate regardless of what club he goes too. Your point of him being Victorian is invalid on that bases. There is no Bendigo team in the AFL. Reid would give two shits about Melbourne as his not a city boy.

I’m not alluding to a go home factor, you’re mistaken. I am stating that he does not want to leave Victoria now and very likely won’t.

 

[Psicosis]

Rory Sloan cried when the Crows selected him. Did not want to move interestate.

Good clubs retain players and Eagles havent lost many at all.

So that is one 'shadow' the Eagles don't jump at unless for very good reason.

The fact you’ve had to use an example of a pick 44 from 15 drafts ago just confirms my point.

 

[Psicosis]

I think you’re right in the sense that there’s no natural trade that will likely satisfy west coast.

But that doesn’t mean West Coast should or will accept unders (and what you put forward is definite unders).

In that regard, unless it is something similar to what North were offered for pick 1 in 2021, West Coast will take Reid.

And yes, I’m pretty sure the consensus view is Reid>>> JHF in their respective draft years.

Yeah we just disagree on what is unders I suppose. I think a situation where WCE come out of the draft with Curtin and another first is a pretty good outcome considering the likely number 1 player doesn’t want to go there.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

15 plus 24 is pick 4 points value. Would still need to add a future pick.

End up with picks 4, 5 and a F1st for pick 1.

Its not far off at all. Two top 10 picks and a future 1st.

Melbourne trade for Suns pick 4 and they have whats needed.

We end up with two of Curtin, McKercher or Duursma. Plus a future 1st and retain our 2024 1st.

It will wipe out the picks you are referring to for melb to get #4 off gc. So cant then trade for 1.

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

The fact you’ve had to use an example of a pick 44 from 15 drafts ago just confirms my point.

There are so many examples of this.

I know Shuey didn’t want to move to WA, Wines didn’t want to be drafted by Port.

Both have been great servants for their clubs and one club players.

I think people are overstating the relevance of an 18 year having a preference to stay in their home state. I’m sure 90% feel that way, and most adjust.

Just because north Melbourne joined GWS in the very exclusive club of losing #1 draft picks after 12 months doesn’t mean West Coast will.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Yeah we just disagree on what is unders I suppose. I think a situation where WCE come out of the draft with Curtin and another first is a pretty good outcome considering the likely number 1 player doesn’t want to go there.

Its not about what he wants though thats irrelevant.

Its about wce likely getting offered more now than what they will get offered in 25 when he requests a trade home (they will get at least 2 high r1s for him then). Unless they get offered more than that they should take him. Its a business decision.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I don't think the issue is that pick 1 makes no sense. I think the issue is that pick 1 (or any pick) is not a human. Melbourne could only trade Jackson with Fremantle, meaning only Fremantle's assets were in play.

Pick 1 can truly be an auction. Theoretically any club can offer anything for it.

As good a counter point as I’ve seen but I think the point I carry on about no end remains the same and this even adds to it. The cost for pick 1 is absurd when it’s cheaper to get proven elite young talent like Jackson compared to a kid who hasn’t played a game of AFL yet. The market is ****ed

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

15 plus 24 is pick 4 points value. Would still need to add a future pick.

End up with picks 4, 5 and a F1st for pick 1.

Its not far off at all. Two top 10 picks and a future 1st.

Melbourne trade for Suns pick 4 and they have whats needed.

We end up with two of Curtin, McKercher or Duursma. Plus a future 1st and retain our 2024 1st.

Don't know why we wouldnt just trade for pick 4 ourselves given we can save them points by not bidding on walter as well, rather than getting rid of our best draft pick in 20 odd years that could net us the exact type of player we need. Not sure why everyone has such a boner for trading pick 1 when we have other avenues to get another top pick.

 

[Mich0]

Can’t see Dees doing this or it happening

 

[Demon 16]

I'd be pretty annoyed if JVR was on the table. Too important for our structure to let go.

No way we are trading our only key forward when our forward line is our biggest problem.

We’ve re-signed him a few months ago too so no need to offer him up.

 

[Demon 16]

If we ended up with picks 4 and 5 I’d rather we just use them than trade for pick 1.

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

Its not about what he wants though thats irrelevant.

Its about wce likely getting offered more now than what they will get offered in 25 when he requests a trade home (they will get at least 2 high r1s for him then). Unless they get offered more than that they should take him. Its a business decision.

This is such a massive mis read of the situation.

If Dees thought they could get him for cheaper in 2 years, logic would dictate they’d wait til then to get the deal done.

What Melbourne know is letting him go to West Coast the risk is he settles well and stays, and he doesn’t and wants to come home in a year or 2 years, they won’t be the club to benefit because they won’t have the picks to facilitate the deal in a competitive market (10 teams)- which is exactly what happened with Cerra and why he went to Carlton and not Melbourne.

West Coast are in a no lose situation. Either deals come for pick 1 which satisfy West Coast, or they take him.

 

[bzparkes]

I’m not alluding to a go home factor, you’re mistaken. I am stating that he does not want to leave Victoria now and very likely won’t.

Do you know this for a fact?