Player Watch Pick #49 (2020) - Ollie Lord

[Peninsula Boy]

I reckon Lord would be worth pick 40 to 60.

I could see Geelong being a bit more on the keen side.

 

[Long live PAFC]

Also Shaw and Harvey highlight my point.

Marshall, Georgiades - both first rounders.

Lord, Shaw and Harvey - late second or third rounders.

So if the interest is real and clubs are desperate - get the first rounder or early second. Maybe we have to send something back to get it done.

 

[philthy05]

Dreamland hey? Similar to Philipou for Soldo?

I’ve said what you said. Keep Lord or set the price and stick to it. If someone comes and offers us a good pick we should take it.

As to depth, we also don’t have any small forward depth - should we retain Evans, McEntee and Narkle just in case? Or if they aren’t up to scratch do we move them on?

Nothing suggests Lord is going to make the grade any more than a draftee. Reality is that a KPP taken in the first round is more likely to make it than one taken in the third round. So any of those players, if taken in the first round, are more likely to make it that Lord - that’s the stats.

Trainor is a KPD right now, so was Naughton. And yes he will go early - you said which KPFs are more likely to make it than Lord. Any KPP taken in the first round is more likely to make it. Armstrong and Trainor should go top ten. Whitlocks somewhere between 12-30. Shanahan 10-25. Fancies yes but that’s the draft.

So yea, if Lord offers us the opportunity to get one of the KPPs in the top 25 then we should do it.

Do I think a club is likely to offer that, despite the dearth of KPP talent - no I don’t. And that kind of tells you how highly clubs rate Lord and what his prospects of making it are.

Everyone suggested we killed any trade value for Ladhams, Hayes, etc etc and that we should have taken those deals for Lobbe, Hartlett, etc. All I’m suggesting is that we apply the same logic to Lord.

Lol, at no point have I ever said that was something that remotely would happen, I’ve simply pointed out that due to the nature of our ruck situation, ie vis being still unknown and sweet having played 10 minutes of good football in front of a fanbase that watched lycett go from hero to villain because we had nobody the coach was willing to play over him when his form went to shit that the only 2 things that would make me move a contracted soldo would be 24 or Phillipou.


But back to what we were talking about.

Nobody is offering a 1st rounder for lord, and the idea that there’s kfs galore we can pick up that are much more certain to make it doesn’t mesh with reality.

2020 - 2022 afl drafts saw

Kfs outside of top 10

Neale
Lord
Van rooyen


From 3 afl drafts. lol.

Now this draft is a deeper kpp draft apparently, but yeah, it doesn’t bode well for claims we’re gonna upgrade lord.



I would actually like to see us draft a kpf in this draft if we can (after we take a mid with an early pick)

But we should be adding that player to our list with lord, not instead of.

 

[philthy05]

Also Shaw and Harvey highlight my point.

Marshall, Georgiades - both first rounders.

Lord, Shaw and Harvey - late second or third rounders.

So if the interest is real and clubs are desperate - get the first rounder or early second. Maybe we have to send something back to get it done.

There’s no reality were we would get a 1st rounder for lord.


No harvey and Shaw do not highlight your point, they go against it. You’ve said we can get a better prospect than lord, history says you cannot accurately make that claim at all.

I’m fairly sure a better kpf than lord will come out of this draft, which one of the handful that gets taken will it be? I dunno, history says the top 10 pick or f/s we have no access to.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

I reckon Lord would be worth pick 40 to 60.

I could see Geelong being a bit more on the keen side.

60 lol flipping wot

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

There’s no reality were we would get a 1st rounder for lord.


No harvey and Shaw do not highlight your point, they go against it. You’ve said we can get a better prospect than lord, history says you cannot accurately make that claim at all.

I’m fairly sure a better kpf than lord will come out of this draft, which one of the handful that gets taken will it be? I dunno, history says the top 10 pick or f/s we have no access to.

Wen past player have talk sons and be elite

 

[Revan11]

Lord for second rounder get it done

 

[Long live PAFC]

There’s no reality were we would get a 1st rounder for lord.


No harvey and Shaw do not highlight your point, they go against it. You’ve said we can get a better prospect than lord, history says you cannot accurately make that claim at all.

I’m fairly sure a better kpf than lord will come out of this draft, which one of the handful that gets taken will it be? I dunno, history says the top 10 pick or f/s we have no access to.

My point is the best KPFs, as per the draft stats, are selected in the first round. The fact that Shaw and Harvey didn’t make it support this, as they are not first rounders. It also suggests that Lord is unlikely to make it.

As I’ve said all along, if there is interest in Lord we should trade him for a first rounder or early second rounder. Whether that’s likely or not, doesn’t matter. It’s just the same as you saying we should hold on to Soldo for depth unless we get a great deal. If someone is desperate, they’ll do it.

And yes, if we select a KPP in the first round with a pick we get for Lord, they’ll be a greater chance of making it than Ollie - that’s what the stats show. Doesn’t mean they will and, you’re right, you still have to select em.

Also there have been more KPPs selected than those three outside the top ten. Treacy, Voss, Edwards, Johnson, Jefferson, Gruzewski, Keeler, Lemmey, Foster, Scully. Treacy looks solid. Voss and Gruzewski are highly rated internally. Kinda reinforces the need for those high picks to get the good KPPs.

 

[Willsy10]

It’s impossible to put a value on lord, I guess the potential is there to be a really good player but based on the rubbish he produced this year he is worth bugger all. Not really a good time to trade him.


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[Peninsula Boy]

60 lol flipping wot

I tried to value his window.

He hasn't done much and if you are buying on potential, he's 40ish but there are plenty of tall forwards you can pick up in the draft with similar traits that late.

He has links with Geelong and could be a replacement for the Tomahawk.

If a team wants to give up a 2nd for him, in this draft, you'd have to seriously consider it.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

I reckon Lord would be worth pick 40 to 60.

I could see Geelong being a bit more on the keen side.

Yea, no.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

In his most recent interview Chris Davies deflected speculation about drafting and trading saying there are many moving parts and I tend to agree with him.

The idea that there is a set price and seemingly everyone on BF knows which such meridian confidence baffles me.

Generally there is an idea of value but from what I can tell the List Management teams are usually close to the values of players because it is their jobs. It also seems to be that most of the hard work has been done well before trade week starts and outside noise, even that of a coach, has very little bearing on the trades.

You can get a trade like Jack Bowes

12

Jack Bowes

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.3

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.5

4star

MG

318.1

4star

D

18.0

4star

K

11.8

5star

HB

6.3

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.1

2star

MG

318.1

4star

D

11.6

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

and pick 7 for a future 3rd rounder. The value is in cap space and hopefully we can get a similar trade for Lukosius.

 

[MrChow]

There is no value trading Lord while in contract after a year recovering from a broken leg, and being a forward in a B grade side that gets pumped each week.

For a 22 year old key forward, a full preseason, some extra size and endurance, and his natural aggression, there is so much to work with - why the other clubs are coming at him.

I’d actually be locking him in for another 2 years at a low rate.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

We are borderline desperate for a big forward.

If Ollie Lord becomes our gorilla key forward, taking contested marks, breaking apart packs and kicking straight for goal all while doing his job as a 2nd ruck, it would be great and probably what we need most in the team.

He had a run at it this year and failed. Hopefully like Georgiades, the time off with injury has helped mature him.

I've just seen Collingwood and Melbourne who was at their Academy are interested.

 

[backtozero]

I tried to value his window.

He hasn't done much and if you are buying on potential, he's 40ish but there are plenty of tall forwards you can pick up in the draft with similar traits that late.

He has links with Geelong and could be a replacement for the Tomahawk.

If a team wants to give up a 2nd for him, in this draft, you'd have to seriously consider it.

Dixon has retired, Finlayson is horribly out of form and who knows what him and his family's future holds, and Marshall may well never play again.

Our tall forward options outside of those consist of Georgiades (not really tall), Esava and Scully.

Trading Lord for some later picks as you're suggesting would be one of the worst moves we could make. High risk, low reward and absolutely detrimental to Georgiades' development.

 

[cosmicwinduptoy]

Dixon has retired, Finlayson is horribly out of form and who knows what him and his family's future holds, and Marshall may well never play again.

Our tall forward options outside of those consist of Georgiades (not really tall), Esava and Scully.

Trading Lord for some later picks as you're suggesting would be one of the worst moves we could make. High risk, low reward and absolutely detrimental to Georgiades' development.

It's crazy that people are even suggesting it

 

[Peninsula Boy]

I didn't suggest or give the opinion that we should trade Lord.

I just gave what I believe his trade value to be and options that have to be weighed up.

 

[1954]

Lord (hopefully) has a lot of improvement to come, and even more hopefully under better coaches than kern and chadbro.

My memory of Mason Shaw is of him looking a tad underwhelmed when we drafted him, being less than happy when after showing not much as a forward at the Maggies for a season or so he was then tried in defence, and of his mother having a big dummy spit on radio when he was delisted.

Back when the ABC used to show highlights from the 3 major state leagues I saw a couple of games where he played in defence and he didn't do much at WAFL level either, and as far as I'm aware neither of Freo or wet toast showed much if any interest, but as I only saw him on a few occasions Grave Danger or Teekray would probably know whether he had a successful career in the WAFL.

 

[QPower]

Lord’s year was derailed by a bad injury and a subsequent loss of confidence playing in a terrible Magpies side.

Give him a pre-season and let’s see what he can do in the seniors.

 

[Brian McGee]

Lord’s year was derailed by a bad injury and a subsequent loss of confidence playing in a terrible Magpies side.

Give him a pre-season and let’s see what he can do in the seniors.

Who out of Marshall, lukosious or Georgiades does he play in front of? Finlayson probably too as the second ruck. I just don’t see a first 22 spot for lord unless there are injuries.

 

[QPower]

Who out of Marshall, lukosious or Georgiades does he play in front of? Finlayson probably too as the second ruck. I just don’t see a first 22 spot for lord unless there are injuries.

Marshall is uncompetitive and one concussion away from a medical retirement.

Finlayson is soft and petulant.

Lord will play in front of both after a good preseason.

 

[PortAdelFC1997]

This is Lord's chance to cement his spot in the 22. Tackle the pre-season hard and be extremely professional. Iron out his flaws and he could very well have a breakout reason.

 

[Brian McGee]

Marshall is uncompetitive and one concussion away from a medical retirement.

Finlayson is soft and petulant.

Lord will play in front of both after a good preseason.

Marshall is still in front by a mile. If he gets another concussion it’s a different story.

 

[TeeKray]

If there's one player on the whole list we need to have a big pre season and take the next step it's this guy. Sorry to crush anyone's dreams but a forward line of Georgiades, Marshall and Lukosius isn't going to pay the bills. Lord is a great athlete and a natural competitor - he's got all the tools required, give him the opportunity and I'm confident he'll show what he can do.

 

[HHHAMMERtime]

I’d take a packet of Tim tams for this bloke. He’s played two good statistical games in my opinion. I just don’t see it, he looked below SANFL level this year.