Player Watch Pick #49 (2020) - Ollie Lord

[RossFC]

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CLUBS EYE POWER FORWARD​

OLLIE Lord is attracting interest from Victorian clubs, amid Port Adelaide's pursuit of Gold Coast forward Jack Lukosius.

Collingwood is in the market for a key forward and has enquired, while Melbourne has held long-term interest in Lord and is also understood to be keeping tabs.

Lord signed a two-year contract extension last December that ties him to the Power until the end of 2026, after Geelong made an advance during the Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period.

Port Adelaide has assured the 22-year-old he is part of the future of the club and doesn't want to trade him, despite Lukosius requesting a move to the Power.

Veteran key forward Charlie Dixon called time on his 14-season career on Wednesday, while Todd Marshall faces some uncertainty after another concussion ended his season. Lord should get more opportunity at Port Adelaide in 2025, but rivals are keeping an eye on his situation in South Australia. – Josh Gabelich

 

[backtozero]

I just don't understand.

What are the Victorian clubs seeing about Lord that we aren't?

Who's "we"

Hes a young, well built key forward. Of course clubs are interested. You think these kinds of players grow on trees?

 

[True__Believer]

Had a tough year but we absolutely need to persist. There is a lot there to work with. I'm staggered that the club doesn't bring in someone like Jay Schulz

Jay Schulz

Age

39

Ht

193cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.6

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

3.5

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

1.7

5star

No current season stats available

D

3.6

1star

K

2.4

1star

HB

1.2

2star

M

1.4

2star

T

0.2

3star

G

0.8

4star

to help with our forwards

 

[PJ Power]

We have to persist with him and Scully until we recruit alternatives.

So long as Georgiades and Lukosius can be 40 goal per year options for us and work together to create a more open, mobile, dynamic forward line that commands better forward entries, then what we need from the other taller/bigger forward is a down-the-line contested marking option, pack mark threat, back up ruckman and big body to create opportunities for others around him. What we don’t necessarily need or want is a stationary big man to whom our mids are compelled to kick the ball blindly, ala Dixon for the past 8 years.

Lord needs to build his physique, play consistently from in front and be engaged more during games.

I still think Scully can be better.

 

[Lefti93]

If Tredders says keep Lord, we keep him. Holy knows holy.

 

[JimmyBC]

Who's "we"

Hes a young, well built key forward. Of course clubs are interested. You think these kinds of players grow on trees?

The injury before the season started pretty much stuffed up his year it can happen to young players, I think we've seen enough good signs to persist he's also a guy with a bit of bash crash about him which we lack.

 

[Long live PAFC]

The good:

• mongrel, bit of arrogance, seems to like the contest and bash and crash
• sometimes takes a great grab
• stood up in a final
• has a frame that suggests he could become a beast

The bad:

• kicking is inconsistent
• seems to go missing
• fitness, mobility and athleticism remain poor
• didn’t really fire a shot after being injured early

He is young and there is some potential there. The mongrel can’t be taught.

But the odds are against him. He is a late pick. The chances of being even a serviceable forward when picked late are next to nothing. He was borderline delist and was being played as a back before he got a chance (which he took to his credit). He has shown very small amounts but his form this year across the AFL and SANFL was very poor.

So if someone came to us and offered a high second rounder or first rounder or say Richards and a second, then I think we should do that.

 

[PortAdelFC1997]

The good:

• mongrel, bit of arrogance, seems to like the contest and bash and crash
• sometimes takes a great grab
• stood up in a final
• has a frame that suggests he could become a beast

The bad:

• kicking is inconsistent
• seems to go missing
• fitness, mobility and athleticism remain poor
• didn’t really fire a shot after being injured early

He is young and there is some potential there. The mongrel can’t be taught.

But the odds are against him. He is a late pick. The chances of being even a serviceable forward when picked late are next to nothing. He was borderline delist and was being played as a back before he got a chance (which he took to his credit). He has shown very small amounts but his form this year across the AFL and SANFL was very poor.

So if someone came to us and offered a high second rounder or first rounder or say Richards and a second, then I think we should do that.

Nick Larkey was pick 73 and it took him 5 seasons before he broke out. Not saying he could become the next Larkey but it can be done with decent development and professionalism. If he can work a lot on his set shots during the summer among other things, he could become the next big key forward at Port. A forward line of Lord, Luko/Marshall and Georgiades could make a very potent forward set up in theory.

 

[Long live PAFC]

Nick Larkey was pick 73 and it took him 5 seasons before he broke out. Not saying he could become the next Larkey but it can be done with decent development and professionalism. If he can work a lot on his set shots during the summer among other things, he could become the next big key forward at Port. A forward line of Lord, Luko/Marshall and Georgiades could make a very potent forward set up in theory.

It’s possible. Larkey, Treacy, Taberner, Lewis - all late picks that have got to that serviceable level or better in Larkey’s case. And we really only need Lord to get to below average. But it remains very unlikely for late picks to make it.

Ultimately the chance of him being better than below average is low. If we can get another early pick - makes sense to take it.

 

[PortAdelFC1997]

It’s possible. Larkey, Treacy, Taberner, Lewis - all late picks that have got to that serviceable level or better in Larkey’s case. And we really only need Lord to get to below average. But it remains very unlikely for late picks to make it.

Ultimately the chance of him being better than below average is low. If we can get another early pick - makes sense to take it.

I agree. If a Vic club came to Port and offered a 1st round pick for Lord, I'll take it first chance and use it to draft a Key Forward or something. It's not the worst thing in the world for Port to have a little reset. This plan would only be effective if Ken goes though.

 

[philthy05]

I agree. If a Vic club came to Port and offered a 1st round pick for Lord, I'll take it first chance and use it to draft a Key Forward or something. It's not the worst thing in the world for Port to have a little reset. This plan would only be effective if Ken goes though.

1. Don’t think clubs will come calling with a 1st round pick at all. Certainly not to port where they know they can twist the screws via vic media pressure and set whatever narrative they decide on.

2. What 1st round pick kf you think is more of a sure thing than lord in this draft?

there will probably be a half dozen kfs drafted this year and 5/6 probably won’t make it past 100 games. Good luck picking the one who does.

 

[philthy05]

Who's "we"

Hes a young, well built key forward. Of course clubs are interested. You think these kinds of players grow on trees?

Yeah

Look at the kfs playing today.

Hipwood , Daniher , amartey and McLean


The idea there’s just quality kfs galore floating around is detached from reality.

Teams will have interest in lord because there’s not many potential kfs floating around available and they’re bloody hard to draft and develop.

 

[Long live PAFC]

2. What 1st round pick kf you think is more of a sure thing than lord in this draft?

All of them? Cause that’s basic stats. KPFs outside of the first round rarely if ever make it, excluding FS/academies/zones/mature agers/etc. Certainly if you look at output rather than just games, it’s even more stark.

If we could turn Lord into a first rounder you would be mad not to take that. Hell even an early second rounder.

Lord is contracted and has been told he’ll be first 22. So if Vic clubs are to prise him loose it’ll be on more money with more years. So port will have to agree to that - Nothing to suggest we will or that we would accept unders. And the media can say what they want - doesn’t change things.

 

[PJ Power]

Yeah

Look at the kfs playing today.

Hipwood , Daniher , amartey and McLean


The idea there’s just quality kfs galore floating around is detached from reality.

Teams will have interest in lord because there’s not many potential kfs floating around available and they’re bloody hard to draft and develop.

It’s also so often the smaller forwards, especially those who can also lead and mark under pressure, that get it done in big finals.

 

[philthy05]

All of them? Cause that’s basic stats. KPFs outside of the first round rarely if ever make it, excluding FS/academies/zones/mature agers/etc. Certainly if you look at output rather than just games, it’s even more stark.

If we could turn Lord into a first rounder you would be mad not to take that. Hell even an early second rounder.

Lord is contracted and has been told he’ll be first 22. So if Vic clubs are to prise him loose it’ll be on more money with more years. So port will have to agree to that - Nothing to suggest we will or that we would accept unders. And the media can say what they want - doesn’t change things.

I’ve never said I wouldn’t take a 1st, i said clubs wouldn’t offer a 1st.

But yeah, your comment that the kfs in this draft would be more likely to make it is divorced from reality.

I don’t think there’s many kfs thought to be sure things or high end in this draft. Teams will reach for a cpl in the 1st round out of desperation.

 

[Rigs]

Keep

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

This talk of Lord for a second rounder flipping lol

A KPF in the second rounds is going to be even more speculative

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

Yeah i agree

We should get Riley Thilthorpe to take ollie lord into the cave and bulk up

And use the same SARMs that he did.

 

[Duckimus Prime]

This talk of Lord for a second rounder flipping lol

A KPF in the second rounds is going to be even more speculative

I mean Ollie Lord was a third round pick himself. In 2020, so he didn't even have a draft year.

And it's not like the known quantity in Lord is really great.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

I mean Ollie Lord was a third round pick himself. In 2020, so he didn't even have a draft year.

And it's not like the known quantity in Lord is really great.

But you don’t know do you

It’s magic beans for the hardest position in football that we have zero depth in

Makes absolutely no sense

 

[Long live PAFC]

I’ve never said I wouldn’t take a 1st, i said clubs wouldn’t offer a 1st.

But yeah, your comment that the kfs in this draft would be more likely to make it is divorced from reality.

I don’t think there’s many kfs thought to be sure things or high end in this draft. Teams will reach for a cpl in the 1st round out of desperation.

Divorced from reality?

Lord is a third rounder - chance of making it, close to zero.

Armstrong (if we have a pick, I would be hoping we pick him), Shanahan, Jack Whitlock, Tauru, Trainor - all likely to go between 5-20. Based on the stats, all are more likely to make it than Lord.

Matt Whitlock, Dodson (ruck not KPP) and a handful of key defenders - also likely to make it ahead of Lord.

So, like I said, if someone comes knocking, we set the price and stick to it.

I do worry that in 2025/6 we will be talking about the missed opportunity of trading him for something good in 2024, when he exits for pick 76.

 

[Long live PAFC]

But you don’t know do you

It’s magic beans for the hardest position in football that we have zero depth in

Makes absolutely no sense

Not sure anyone is suggesting we trade him for magic beans.

An early second or first rounder for sure. If it’s depth we are worried about, ie just playing a warm body, retain Dixon. The point is we want lord to be something, even if that’s an average KPF.

 

[philthy05]

Divorced from reality?

Lord is a third rounder - chance of making it, close to zero.

Armstrong (if we have a pick, I would be hoping we pick him), Shanahan, Jack Whitlock, Tauru, Trainor - all likely to go between 5-20. Based on the stats, all are more likely to make it than Lord.

Matt Whitlock, Dodson (ruck not KPP) and a handful of key defenders - also likely to make it ahead of Lord.

So, like I said, if someone comes knocking, we set the price and stick to it.

I do worry that in 2025/6 we will be talking about the missed opportunity of trading him for something good in 2024, when he exits for pick 76.

Trainor is being drafted as a key defender, he’s going to go early, much earlier than any dreamed of 1st you imagine we might get for lord.

Armstrong has been talked about as a 1st rounder and as a kf prospect he’s nowhere near a certainty to make it. The rest of the guys are fancies. While some of these guys are decent prospects few to none are anywhere near guaranteed to get past 10 games much 100.



I’m pro - adding kpfs when you can, precisely because they’re so hard to find. Carlton threw 1st round picks at the problem for like 2 decades before they found curnow and Mackay.


But it’s dreamland to think lord is getting a 1st round draft pick and dreamland to think were guaranteed or even close to guaranteed to get a better kf prospect than him, especially in this draft and especially with the “1st round pick” we would be getting for lord , which by any stretch of the imagination must be pick 18 or some such cause it’s fanciful enough before suggesting we could snag like pick 12 for him.

 

[philthy05]

We trade lord for a pick we’re reasonably likely to get offered the kpf were drafting is more likely to be mason shaw and Mitch Harvey than Georgiades.


I would be amenable to trading lord if Dixon was 28 and our stocks were good rather than the mess we’re in right now.

But the pick we’re likely to get for him plus our situation means he’s a must keep.

There’s more chance he increases his trade value with a free run at a preseason and a first 22 spot than selling him at his lowest value now.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

We trade lord for a pick we’re reasonably likely to get offered the kpf were drafting is more likely to be mason shaw and Mitch Harvey than Georgiades.


I would be amenable to trading lord if Dixon was 28 and our stocks were good rather than the mess we’re in right now.

But the pick we’re likely to get for him plus our situation means he’s a must keep.

There’s more chance he increases his trade value with a free run at a preseason and a first 22 spot than selling him at his lowest value now.

Exactly
We don’t know how good he’s going to be, but we can’t afford to lose him unless it’s a genuinely insane single digit number

 

[Long live PAFC]

Trainor is being drafted as a key defender, he’s going to go early, much earlier than any dreamed of 1st you imagine we might get for lord.

Armstrong has been talked about as a 1st rounder and as a kf prospect he’s nowhere near a certainty to make it. The rest of the guys are fancies. While some of these guys are decent prospects few to none are anywhere near guaranteed to get past 10 games much 100.



I’m pro - adding kpfs when you can, precisely because they’re so hard to find. Carlton threw 1st round picks at the problem for like 2 decades before they found curnow and Mackay.


But it’s dreamland to think lord is getting a 1st round draft pick and dreamland to think were guaranteed or even close to guaranteed to get a better kf prospect than him, especially in this draft and especially with the “1st round pick” we would be getting for lord , which by any stretch of the imagination must be pick 18 or some such cause it’s fanciful enough before suggesting we could snag like pick 12 for him.

Dreamland hey? Similar to Philipou for Soldo?

I’ve said what you said. Keep Lord or set the price and stick to it. If someone comes and offers us a good pick we should take it.

As to depth, we also don’t have any small forward depth - should we retain Evans, McEntee and Narkle just in case? Or if they aren’t up to scratch do we move them on?

Nothing suggests Lord is going to make the grade any more than a draftee. Reality is that a KPP taken in the first round is more likely to make it than one taken in the third round. So any of those players, if taken in the first round, are more likely to make it that Lord - that’s the stats.

Trainor is a KPD right now, so was Naughton. And yes he will go early - you said which KPFs are more likely to make it than Lord. Any KPP taken in the first round is more likely to make it. Armstrong and Trainor should go top ten. Whitlocks somewhere between 12-30. Shanahan 10-25. Fancies yes but that’s the draft.

So yea, if Lord offers us the opportunity to get one of the KPPs in the top 25 then we should do it.

Do I think a club is likely to offer that, despite the dearth of KPP talent - no I don’t. And that kind of tells you how highly clubs rate Lord and what his prospects of making it are.

Everyone suggested we killed any trade value for Ladhams, Hayes, etc etc and that we should have taken those deals for Lobbe, Hartlett, etc. All I’m suggesting is that we apply the same logic to Lord.