Player X or Player Y (part 2)

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Dont you think that the risk of the rookie far outweighs the risk of a midpricer player who is:

- locked in their 22
- more developed
- showing some indications of a breakout

I think with rookies (this is also in reply to shiva25) you dont know what your getting - youve had only a couple of games to view these players, and you have no idea where the coach rates someone so new to the team and the system. Comparatively, with a more mature mid pricer, there is a lot more information regarding their role, injury history, scoring capacity, etc.

Hmm.

I think this is why you spread each strategy throughout the team and not just go with one approach.

For example this year I think the backline gets you good rewards for going with mid priced players whilst in the midfield the gun/rookie straegy works well. In the forwards either way can give a nice looking team.

I can't remember which of the guys in this discussion mentioned it first but I totally agree that the real guts of the matter is picking the right players to fit your strategy in each section of your team.

Obvious as hell I know but its still worth noting. No point going with a gun/rookie strategy in the mids and picking Gibbs/Sewell/DalSanto and then Lucas/Bollenhagen/Cunnington.

Just as foolish to go midpriced in your backs and have Scarlett/Glass/Fletcher/Nicoski/Tarrant/LRT etc.

(Obviously I'm not saying the guys above are bad players, just bad choices in DT as a unit so please don't start a "Fletcher/Gibbs is an awesome player you idiot" hijack here.)

Over simplification sure but you get my point.

On a different point - Roo & Gia or Goodes & Higgins ?
 
Dont you think that the risk of the rookie far outweighs the risk of a midpricer

I think it's more that I don't think the risk of a rookie far outweighs the risk of 2 midpricers.

1 ROOKIE 1 GUN:
Upside

A rookie gives you 1 gun to start. Then if they play enough they get you another keeper or gun for 2 trades.

= 2 guns for 2 trades

Downside

Rookie doesnt go up in price so you have to sideways trade to another rookie costing you 1 trade who you then upgrade to a gun costing you another 2 trades.

= 2 guns for 3 trades

2 MIDPRICERS:

Upside:

2 mid pricers either get you 2 keepers or maybe 1 gun/1keeper if you are
lucky for 0 trades.

= 1 gun 1 keeper for 0 trades

Downside:

The midpricers dont really become keepers so you either keep them anyway because you focus on upgrading your rookies first and then need the rest of your trades for injury or you spend 2 trades upgrading them both to keepers who have gone down a lot in price costing you 2-3 trades.

The midpricers do really bad costing you 4 trades to upgrade to 2 guns or maybe even 1 gun / 1 keeper.

2 guns for 4 trades / 2 keepers for 2-3 trades


I think in the end you pick 2 mid pricers with the realistic view that they will become 2 keepers not guns but you wont need to trade. Its very hard to find midpricers that turn into one of the top 5 or so players of their position.

You pick the rookie & gun with the realistic view that they will become 2 guns for 2-3 trades.

In the end nearly everyone has both options a few times in their team:D:p Hopefully this made sense.
 

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having decisons on which to go.. prob been discussed plenty of times.

ablett or swan?

I personally am not starting with either, but I did consider choosing Swan for a long time.

He's just that little bit more durable in terms on injuries.

Obviously you can't split their respective averages, so the next thing I look at is durability.
 
This year I feel Bartel is by far the better option. Alot cheaper and will get u the same results as Ablett/Swan.
 
I personally am not starting with either, but I did consider choosing Swan for a long time.

He's just that little bit more durable in terms on injuries.

Obviously you can't split their respective averages, so the next thing I look at is durability.

They are both rediculously over priced. You would be better off getting someone $80,000 cheaper and wait for one to slide, Same thing as Ablett last year however his first few games were sensational and then he got injured so his price didnt slide!
 
Don't think Ablett can improve on his average?
 
Don't think Ablett can improve on his average?

I dont know what his average is or was, however I cant see for the third year in a row he runs arond and dominates, Black, Voss and Akermanis started to hit a wall in 2003, Corey, Ablett and Kelly I think will slide, Wojack will improve for Kelly's spot and Corey will go to a Half Forward Flank, Varcoe will move into the guts and he and Selwood next to Bartell and Ablett will hold the team strong!
 
I dont know what his average is or was, however I cant see for the third year in a row he runs arond and dominates, Black, Voss and Akermanis started to hit a wall in 2003, Corey, Ablett and Kelly I think will slide, Wojack will improve for Kelly's spot and Corey will go to a Half Forward Flank, Varcoe will move into the guts and he and Selwood next to Bartell and Ablett will hold the team strong!

Ablett will still average over 100 DT points but I cant see him worth $80,000 more than Selwood or Mitchell!
 

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I dont know what his average is or was, however I cant see for the third year in a row he runs arond and dominates, Black, Voss and Akermanis started to hit a wall in 2003, Corey, Ablett and Kelly I think will slide, Wojack will improve for Kelly's spot and Corey will go to a Half Forward Flank, Varcoe will move into the guts and he and Selwood next to Bartell and Ablett will hold the team strong!

Are you just making this up?

Wojinski will struggle get a game this year. He's a one trick pony and there's no room left in the game for players that constantly turn the ball over. He is a woeful kick of the football.

Why would Corey move to the HFF when he's been so good through the middle and off the HBF?

And I think there are about 10 players ahead of Varcoe in the midfield rotations.
 
I think this is going to be pretty much coin of the flip, but...

Dangerfield + Tippet
OR
Gray + NicNat
 
Leon Davis v Alan Didak v Steve Johnson v Adam Goodes? :confused:

I think with this one you have to consider potential and scoring vs durability. I would rate the potential to score like this
1. Johnson
2. Goodes
3. Didak
4. Davis

Then I would look at durability and say:

1. Goodes
2. Davis
3. Didak
4. Johnson

Johnson will give you the points and be going very well and then a sudden injury will destroy you. This isn't necessarily a bad thing as he will be quite expensive when the injury takes place and will be easy to upgrade/downgrade. So if you want that risk attached go with Johno. If you want a solid scorer with excellent durability, you can't go past Goodes. Arguably, one of the most dangerous players in the league and in the forward line, I can see him averaging easily 100 +

Now my question concerning Goodes as a matter of fact.

Luke Ball + Gia
or
Goodes + Armitage
 
I would rather find a gem of a rookie that averages well and increases in price through the first half of the year then when the season starts to get to the pointy end trade the rookie that is tyring and pick up a Premium Mid that is coming back from injury or has had some bad form. There are always 3 premium mids that drop through the year. It is just about investing and being wise with your profits!

But wouldn't it be better to find those gems of midpricers that become premiums or at very least keepers, like Bernie Vince from last year, I know you'll probably counter with Liam Anthony, but the fact is he only played 10 games, towards the end of the season, which isn't as good as Bernie in my book.

Also when you look at Almost Worst Case Scenario for Vince it would have been probably him keeping his average of 75 and playing almost the full season. However, Anthony could quite easily have not been given any games under Dean Laidley and been dead weight on people's benches, and fields in some cases.

I'm not saying I definitely favour mid price over gun / rookie, but they both have plenty of pros and cons and I think I'm going to sit back until the end of the NAB and not fiddle with my team until I have all the information. Although I probably wont be able to.
 
looking for one young(ish) mid price midfielder who can make the move into an average of 95+

currently going for Ryan Griffen at 370k

other options
Jarred McVeigh 355k
daniel rich 339k (think he'll probably stay at the same level this year, before making that leap again next year)
nathan van berlo 343k
cale morton 386k

thoughts??
 
I think with this one you have to consider potential and scoring vs durability. I would rate the potential to score like this
1. Johnson
2. Goodes
3. Didak
4. Davis

Then I would look at durability and say:

1. Goodes
2. Davis
3. Didak
4. Johnson

Johnson will give you the points and be going very well and then a sudden injury will destroy you. This isn't necessarily a bad thing as he will be quite expensive when the injury takes place and will be easy to upgrade/downgrade. So if you want that risk attached go with Johno. If you want a solid scorer with excellent durability, you can't go past Goodes. Arguably, one of the most dangerous players in the league and in the forward line, I can see him averaging easily 100 +

Now my question concerning Goodes as a matter of fact.

Luke Ball + Gia
or
Goodes + Armitage

Cheers for that :thumbsu: As for your question, I'd probably go for Ball + Gia. Basically because Gia has had a fantastic pre-season, and tore up the game tonight. As for Ball, you will probably have to see how he goes during the NAB Challenge matches. The 105 against the Saints looked very good, lets see if he can back that up. Armatige is one I'm staying away from. Can he keep his average at over 90? Will he break into the Saints 22? Lots of questions over Armatige.
 
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