Draft Expert PMBangers 2023 Draft Thread
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PMBangers thoughts on the likes of Heath Ollington and Geordie Payne being drafted?
Ollington played Allies football and has senior state league experience under his belt. Payne played with men but at a lower level. Put together a decent season for the Devils.
Could be a very big year for Tasmania with the Colonel, McKercher, Leake, Schoenmaker and Callinan all seemingly destined to be recruited.
Ollington played Allies football and has senior state league experience under his belt. Payne played with men but at a lower level. Put together a decent season for the Devils.
Could be a very big year for Tasmania with the Colonel, McKercher, Leake, Schoenmaker and Callinan all seemingly destined to be recruited.
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The two players I'd like are George Stevens and Archer Reid.
Half the time, people are complaining AFL players lack the body. George has the body but that's not good enough. So high upside there and has dominant VFL performances under his belt.
Half the time, people are complaining AFL players lack the body. George has the body but that's not good enough. So high upside there and has dominant VFL performances under his belt.
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PMBangers
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Payne I paid a bit more attention to after he got the state combine invite gumiven he hadn't really taken me away with his performances beforehand, and I think he's the sort of player that needs you to focus on a bit to fully appreciate. I definitely think he's worth drafting late/ in the rookie given his speed and courage throwing himself at the contest, he'll be a good lockdown defender at the very least, and if his composure can improve with ball in hand/ skill execution at speed I don't see a reason he can't be a regular feature in a teams best defensive unit, and when Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide have shown interest as clubs that traditionally pick very good value defenders in the draft it's a good sign.
Ollington I've found difficult to figure out, traits wise he's got some things that really appeal to what I look for; work rate, overhead marking, smarts in positioning, but I probably just don't see the transition to AFL Level in his game like I do with others in his current roles. Does he have the athleticism to play as a midfielder to make the most of his contested game? Similarly does he have the athleticism to be an AFL half forward where separation on defenders to harder to come by? A rookie draft prospect for me though to get a year to answer those questions
Out of interest what are Charlie Edwards flaws?
Just from an outside perspective he seems like quite a catch. He is a great size, his kicking seems a tiny bit awkward but it does the job, he has got good speed and seems to be quite strong with overhead marking and his ability in contested situations, seeming to find time and space.
However, he is usually ranked in the 20 to 30 range, so what are the flaws I am not seeing?
Thanks.
Just from an outside perspective he seems like quite a catch. He is a great size, his kicking seems a tiny bit awkward but it does the job, he has got good speed and seems to be quite strong with overhead marking and his ability in contested situations, seeming to find time and space.
However, he is usually ranked in the 20 to 30 range, so what are the flaws I am not seeing?
Thanks.
PMBangers
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I had this to say about Charlie Edwards (specifically for GWS at our second first round pick) on the GIANTS board last week;
It's probably not as in depth as I'd like, but that's the thing that's probably holding him back for a lot of amatuer watchers at the very least, without seeing him at the Champs it's harder to gauge exactly where he sits in terms of performance against the rest of the class, so without that it's a bit more difficult to fully commit to 'this guy is going to be a star'.
He's in my tier 3 which takes up 12-31 in my rankings so I'd understand seeing him go that early or a little later on as well, it's just difficult to separate some groups.
Thanks a lot for that. Sounds like his bolter status is holding him back a bit in the sense we have not seen him in the harder games against players who are likely to be drafted as well.
A part of me hopes Sydney go after him if we can't trade up and get O'Sullivan (which I am almost positive is what Sydney want).
Phantom Draft Round 1
PMBangers
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Woah that year went quick, and what a year it was.
Anyway I'll be releasing the Phantom Draft, which is what I think WILL/COULD happen as opposed to how I think the players rank, over this week. Round 1 up now, Round 2 will be up after that, then rounds 3, 4 and 5 will be one post as well. Anyway, enjoy, feedback appreciated but please note I'm prone to cry when things are too critical!
For the first round, given it has about 49 picks I'll update the write up over a few days, but will endeavour to get the others done in one hit
I'm not putting myself through the pain of predicting live trades, but will make mention of the possibilities I see around them
Pick 1 - West Coast Eagles - Harley Reid
187 cm 85 kg
Bendigo Pioneers
General Utility
What is there to be said about Harley that hasn't already been well covered in the media/ various different club board draft threads. It's amazing that we had Jason Horne-Francis and Nick Daicos in 2021 do as well as they did, and then get Harley come in and become the most hyped and most spoken about draft prospect ever (so far!). Not to discredit Harley of course, but just a nice moment to show how far interest in the draft has come in such a short period.
There's not much Harley does that isn't very good to elite in comparison to the rest of the crop, with his versatility, power, strength, marking and contested game all standout features of his game. Most contested beasts in years gone by have struggled with their ball use either through congestion or on the rare occasion they win it out in space, but this is no issue for Harley who regularly hits targets via hand or foot with ease with well weighted disposal.
I guess the question is what does he actually end up being at AFL level? Given his genuine elite status in every third of the ground it's not out of the question that he has a Pavlich/ Goodes style career where he spends significant amounts of time in various different roles, and for the Eagles in the spot they're in it gives them great flexibility in their list build knowing Harley can plug gaps until eventually, hopefully, probably, ending up a mid/ fwd.
I think the only real Improvement Area in his game is the Endurance side of things, which will naturally improve in an AFL environment, but what his capacity for that is in terms of ceiling and time will ultimately decide whether he's a a majority mid or majority forward player
Considerations; No one else is going Pick 1, and it's been that way for around 5 months now. There's still the possibility of a trade I guess, but given the level of the offers that have been put forward, and rejected, already, it's hard to see clubs improving those offers and even harder to see West Coast lowering their demands
Pick 2 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Jed Walter (Use Picks 24,26,27 - carry a 203 point surplus to match their next bid)
194 cm 97 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Tall Forward
Arguably the most complete Key Forward prospect we've seen come through the junior ranks in some time, there's not many players that have kicked 20 goals in the U18 Championships (across two years), there could even be only Jed!
Walter truly is the complete package as a KPF prospect; physical, athletic, aerially dominant, accurate in front of goal, natural smarts are all traits we know make up elite key forwards, hell some of the best aren't even accurate in front of goal! but what truly sets Walter apart from anyone else we've seen come through is his defensive work, manically pressuring or chasing down opponents to tackle them and force a turnover. There were a few times this season in the Champs where he laid tackles on the wing, disposed of the footy, and then busted his gut to get down to the forward line and be an option for the inside 50. To put it simply, this is a level of workrate we just haven't seen before in a KPF. Cadman to a degree had it, but wasn't nearly as physical or accurate as Walter is
The cliche of 'Tall's take time' isn't relevant either in regards to Walter, who will be playing Round 1 next year and likely have an immediate impact to the Suns as a genuine contested marking beast, with the athleticism to do it packs, to compliment the more lead up style of Ben King. It won't immediately fix their inside 50 issues, and I (on the suggestion of my dear friend Supersuns) do realise they probably need some better quality crumbers to fully take advantage of this, but it's a good shot in the arm.
Considerations; Gold Coast will match any bid for Walter, no shock there, but I do wonder whether they'll look to trade their picks in the 20's to maximise the points value they can get out of them? Clubs like Sydney, GWS, Richmond and Brisbane who are only going to take 2-3 picks and have a couple of later ones with points value may pounce at the opportunity to get better access to their preferred options after the first round, with the Eagles and Fremantle's other possibilities to want to upgrade their later picks
Pick 3 - North Melbourne - Zane Duursma
189 cm 79 kg
Gippsland Power
General Forward/ Midfielder
A season of two halfs is probably the best way to describe Zane's 2023, with a focus on developing his midfield game coming into the year Duursma was given every opportunity at Gippsland to show what he had to offer as more of a mid/fwd rather than a fwd/mid, and whilst there were some impressive displays and good development in his stoppage game and ball use under pressure, it's hard to deny that as a midfielder, we were getting mere glimpses as opposed to the consistent highlights package he offered as a forward
For more of a medium player Duursma is exceptional in the air, with his cleanliness at ground level translating well as he regularly takes one clunk grabs over head at full stretch, holding position surprisingly well against taller and stronger opposition. Whilst his disposal around the ground can be touch and go, but mostly very good, he's a consistent finisher in front of the sticks and often makes the most of his opportunities in front of goal, especially from set shots. I also really like the versaitlity Zane offers in a forward post, given his cleanliness and athletic traits he's shown he can act as an undersized marking target or more of a ground level player depending on the situation, with smarts to switch his approach as is necessary without prompting
Long term, North will be hoping Zane develops his endurance enough to play some consistent midfield minutes, even just a rotation option, given the class he can bring to the role, but even without that he'll add to what is quickly becoming an exciting and dynamic North forward line
Pick 4 - North Melbourne - Colby McKercher
180 cm 76 kg
Launceston
Midfielder
It's fair to say Colby has claims as the best pure midfielder in this years pool, and not just because of the lack of midfielders, with his line breaking ability, consistency, accumulation and work rate, McKercher has the traits to suggest he'll translate well to the elite level as either a centre square midfielder, or a winger given his elite endurance.
It's hard to narrow down what I really love about McKercher as a prospect given he's got so many strings to his bow, but I'd say that lack of clear weakness is ultimately what has drawn so many to him as a potential top 3 pick. Outside of his strength and arguably his contested game there's really no concerns about McKercher's game. He's got an elite athletic base, uses it well, has footy smarts, elite endurance, really good ball use and consistently gets high 20's to low 30's each game, and has improved in a couple of areas through the year with his scoreboard impact and one sidedness seeing increasing improvement.
Do North need more midfielders? Well yes and no, they don't need anymore inside leaning midfielders but definitely need a player of McKercher's calibre with speed and clean ball use, to fully rewarded the clearance winning efforts of LDU, Wardlaw and co. into the future. Whether or not you agree with this as a list fit, it's undeniable that McKercher is one of the 3 best available players here, and that in and of itself makes it a good list fit
Considerations; Dan Curtin and Nick Watson are the only two other players I see in contention here, with both arguably filling bigger gaps in the North Melbourne list, but everything has pointed to a Duurs and McKerch combo for a month or so now, so it'd be surprising if that changed at this point, especially with some other quality small forwards available later. Do North trade one of these picks is the other question, which moreso hinges on West Coast's demands than anything else, but I'm confident they take at least one of these picks
Pick 5 - Hawthorn - Nick Watson
170 cm 68 kg
Eastern Ranges
Small Forward
If Harley Reid is the most talked about prospect ever, then Watson is a close second. A lot of debate about Watson is focused around his height, which really just is what it is. When talking about the package of traits a player brings to their role, outside of an improvement in his defensive application, there's nothing Watson needs to add to his arsenal.
For a 170cm player, Watson can and has truly made taller opposition look silly in the air, with an elite leap and speed that allows him to gain separation easily and take the ball at a high point before opponents can fully register what happened. Watson's cleanliness in the air translates to his ground level game as well, truly an elite one touch player in all areas, Watson can crumb at full speed with no issue and is adept at the classic one hand pick up. And that's only his forward craft really, with his kicking and clear footy IQ transferrable across any area of the ground, Watson does have some potential to impact through the centre square like a Pickitt/ Brent Daniesl should a team want to explore that
For the Hawks, I guess the question is do they need Watson with Ginnivan coming in? The answer is, of course, yes! With Wingard getting older, and missing half of next season, Hawthorn have very little in the way of X-Factor and genuine athletic smalls in their ranks, with Watson projecting as a player that can turn those inside 50's that dont end up in Mitch Lewis's hands, still good opportunities to score.
Considerations; Dan Curtin continues to be linked and I do think he remains an option, but with Will McCabe coming in I think Hawthorn will be looking to address another need with a couple of players ranked evenly for this pick, as well as McKercher or Duursma if North go a different route with 2/3. I don't see a trade eventuating involving this pick unless it was a ridiculous offer from the Dees if they had a real eagerness to take the pick of bunch in this next trio of picks, or perhaps if McKercher slid and the Hawks were more fans of players in other roles
Pick 6 - Western Bulldogs - Ryley Sanders
185 cm 86 kg
Sandringham Dragons
Midfielder
One of the most consistent performers from this crop over the course of 3 years, Sanders just rocks up and gets the job done every week, regardless of specific role or any attention from opposition midfielders, his no fuss style of inside ball winning just translates well to any situation, and he's managed to add to his game throughout the year in positive ways, demonstrating an improved outside game and showing some small glimpses of how he may impact when resting forward at the next level.
When looking at most of the top midfielders at AFL level currently, Sanders has traits to match, as a clean one touch player at ground level with excellent stoppage nous, high level endurance and piercing handballs through congestion. I think Sanders kicking and speed has been somewhat underrated this year in all honesty, whilst he doesn't have the ye catching dash of a McKercher, he more often than not beats opponents in foot races on the outside and has a 20m sprint time that suggests he could become more of a burst player from congestion than we've seen this year, with the right coaching. I also think his marking is an area of his game that isn't appreciated enough, and was on display the few times he rotated through the forward line, along with his footy smarts allowing him to impact seamlessly.
I guess the main concerns around Sanders have been his ability to drive his legs out of the contest, and whether there's much development left in him physically given he's already at his AFL playing weight/ size, they're fair concerns, but I think the worst case scenario for Sanders at the next level is still a 200 game midfielder.
Considerations; This pick clearly isn't getting traded given what the Dogs gave up to get it, an offer that'd tempt the dogs would have to be 3 first rounders at a minimum you'd expect. I still think it's one of Watson or Sanders given what's likely to play out beforehand, but the dream is probably McKercher sliding down.
Pick 7 - Melbourne - Daniel Curtin
197 cm 95 kg
Claremont
Tall Defender/ Midfielder
Is he a genuine KPD, tall flanker or midfielder seems to be the reason so many are cautious on Curtin (on bigfooty at least), but the versatility he's shown this season has been truly exceptional regardless. Curtin is the only Key Defender from this years class to have effectively held Jed Walter in one-on-one battles, whilst being WA's best midfielder, simply crazy!
In my opinion, I don't see Curtin being anything other than a defender at the next level given how impactful he is down there as either a stopper or genuine interceptor, with his combination of aerial strength, one-on-one work, positioning and use by foot, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the next big thing in terms of defenders at the next level.
The 'midfielder' part of his game has been nice to see at the very least, but I'm not sure it's been convincing enough to deploy at AFL level, particularly as I feel most of his improvement areas, mostly his work below his knees, are more detrimental in the guts than down back. Perhaps he gets swung forward through his career as a point of difference, but nothing from his forward work this year was all that inspiring
Considerations; Could this be the first pick we see live traded on draft night? The Eagles future first would have to be tempting for the Dees, with it projecting as a top 3 pick in a midfielder heavy draft, arguably the most important area for them to stock up on, or could an Adelaide look to move up here to lock in a set and forget KPD? This is also the first pick where there's a bunch of links to every player. The Dees would have real interest in all of the players that have gone beforehand, as well as James Leake, Connor O'Sullivan and Nate Caddy, but I'm leaning with them going a tall either way overall.
Pick 8 - GWS - James Leake
187 cm 77 kg
Launceston
General Utility
The real draft bolter of the year, Leake shot into top 25 calculations through the Champs, and then furthered his draft credentials with some stunning performances as both a forward and midfielder in the last half of the Talent League season. Leake isn't a player that's been thrown about because 'he needs to find his best position', he's a player with genuine versatility due to his smarts and strong marking game.
As has been well advertised, Leake is a strong mark particularly for his size, both contested one-on-one and in packs, if allowed to leap for the footy there's a 99% chance he's holding onto it without much issue, but his ball use and decision making is equally as damaging after taking the mark, and, like with other prospects, has been an understated area of his game.
Sustained impact throughout games and general strength remain areas of growth, but both should be addressed quite quickly at AFL level with full time S&C programs, as well as a more consistent role throughout the year and individual games. Where he ends up playing will be an interesting watch, there was real promise in all his roles, but he does remain most impactful as a defender
Considerations; Again most of the earlier picked players would be heavily looked at, but of those available Caleb Windsor and Connor O'Sullivan are the main two that'd be considered. I wonder if this pick could be gettable in a trade should a Sydney, Adelaide or Essendon want to move up to lock in O'Sullivan
Pick 9 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Ethan Read (Picks 30, 34 used - carry 198 point surplus for next bid)
202 cm 92 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Ruck/ Tall Forward
The 'unicorn' of the draft, Read's impressed all year with his ridiculous mobility, ball use and ground level game for a player of his size, and recently took the eye of everyone as he powered home to a sub-6 minute 2km time trial at the AFL Draft Combine. It's no secret that you have to be something truly special as a ruck to go top 10, and Read has a combination of traits we haven't really seen before.
It's sort of funny that Read has taken the mantle of 'best ruck in the draft' when his strengths are arguably more suited to a key position role up either end, given his marking, positioning and previously mentioned qualities, and really his ruck craft isn't a highlight of his game. Long term I think Read's going to be a FWD/Ruck for the Suns to damaging effect, given his able to impact around the ground so effectively and Ned Moyle really is a ruck only option, it'd be the best ruck combination in the league should all go well
Shoutout to a real one when I say Read being deployed on a wing would be interesting as well, as a link up option there's no one that could match him across the board for endurance, marking proficiency and ball use heading forward
Pick 10 - Geelong - Nate Caddy
193 cm 88 kg
Northern Knights
Tall Forward
Like Nick Watson a lot of the questions around Caddy have been about his size, and whether he can translate the same play style to AFL level. It's a fair question for a key forward that's 193 cm, but as many have pointed out height isn't as limiting of a factor for KPF's as can be made out, and with Caddy's mix of athletic traits, reach and marking strength, I think he's got the tools to be a Curnow like forward target.
I'll admit Caddy is probably the only top 12 player I'm not totally enamoured with, while many have asked the question about his size I genuinely can't decide whether his kicking holds up at the next level, both around the ground and in front of the sticks, and think he remains a tad inconsistent for what you'd ideally want from a top 10 pick. He does, however, have claims for a top 3 ceiling in this draft given his x factor and how he can a turn a game on it's head with the flick of a switch.
I don't see him having that midfield potential like others do, but think if a club can nail his development they've got a top 5 FF at his peak
Considerations; Of those available it was really only O'Sullivan that was a chance outside of Caddy, and ultimately I think Geelong really need to look at some young KPF stocks with the retirement of Hawkins imminent, and Jeremey Cameron getting on as well. This is the first pick I think is more likely to switch hands than not; Essendon would love Caddy, Adelaide and Sydney would love O'Sullivan, would they be willing to trade multiple first rounders from this year or next year for the opportunity to draft those guys?
Pick 11 - Essendon - Connor O'Sullivan
198 cm 92 kg
Murray Bushrangers
Tall Utility
Considerations; Given they've just brought in McKay and invested heavily in key defenders with 2 top 10 picks in 2020, I could see the Bombers compromising on 'best available' to address their midfield, with the speed of Caleb Windsor sure to appeal to what remains a pretty one-paced midfield group. The supposed interest in Hardeman suggests a trade could be on the cards here, and like Geelongs pick Sydney and Adelaide might make an appealing offer to lock in O'Sullivan
Pick 12 - Adelaide - Darcy Wilson
186 cm 74 kg
Murray Bushrangers
Midfielder/ General Forward
Considerations; The link to Wilson is very strong if this pick is kept, but Caleb Windsor is also being linked strongly the closer we get to the draft. I think it's between them, but I also think there's an appetite to trade up so it'll be an interesting watch.
Pick 13 - Melbourne - Charlie Edwards
191 cm 85 kg
Sandringham Dragons
Midfielder
Considerations; Pretty confident this will be a midfielder, and ultimately the choice between Harry Demattia, who the Dees really like, Caleb Windsor, who the Dees really like, and Edwards came down to the fact Edwards has a better balance to his midfield game.
Pick 14 - Western Bulldogs (Matched Bid) - Jordan Croft (Picks 45, 47, 49 used - 21 point surplus)
200 cm 81 kg
Calder Cannons
Tall Forward
Pick 15 - Sydney - Will Green
204 cm 93 kg
Northern Knights
Ruck
Considerations; Sydney do well to keep their cards close to their chest and this year is no different, with Green the best link so far. Could they bid on McCabe given the need for key defensive options? Would they consider reaching for Zane Zakostelsky? Would they go against the grain of their drafting profile and take Ollie Murphy? No real link to Tew Jiath but I think he fits their drafting profile, but maybe a bit early for him.
Pick 16 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Jake Rogers (36, 61, 66 used - 61 point surplus)
170 cm 68 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Midfielder/ Small Forward
Pick 17 - St Kilda - Caleb Windsor
184 cm 76 kg
Eastern Ranges
Wing
Considerations; The Saints need runners and efficient ball users and Windsor suits well, and I don't see a world where the Saints pass on him here. Harry Demattia, Koltyn Tholstrup and Riley Hardeman may also be of interest should Windsor be off the table
Pick 18 - Hawthorn (Matched Bid) - Will McCabe (42, 45, 26 used - 285 point surplus)
197 cm 86 kg
Central Districts
Tall Defender
Pick 19 - Adelaide - Koltyn Tholstrup
186 cm 86 kg
Subiaco
Midfielder/ General Forward
Considerations; Taylor Goad and Ollie Murphy arguably fill bigger holes in the Crows list and would be around the mark here, and Harry Demattia presents as someone that could add a bit of speed to their midfield mix long term
Pick 20 - North Melbourne - Riley Hardeman
185 cm 75 kg
Swan Districts
General Defender
Considerations; With two of the next 3 picks, North likely look to take the player they have interest in that they're most worried about GWS taking. The Giants have interest in Hardeman and have expressed a desire to add to their defensive group. Other half backs in this region such as Archie Roberts may be of interest as well, or Demattia may tempt them as someone that has showed signs up either end and through the midfield
Pick 21 - GWS - Harry Demattia
185 cm 78 kg
Dandenong Stingrays
General Utility
Considerations; Really there aren't a lot of obvious holes in the GWS list, with a developing rotation FWD/RUCK and midfield depth the only two things that most agree on, perhaps a bid on Will Graham will be a consideration here as well, but there's not much else in the way of midfield options here. Taylor Goad would be in consideration as a high upside ruck prospect, whilst Tew Jiath, Luamon Lual, Lance Collard and Phoenix Gothard all fit the giants drafting profile.
Pick 22 - North Melbourne - Taylor Goad
206 cm 97 kg
South Adelaide
Ruck
Pick 23 - North Melbourne - Lance Collard
180 cm 65 kg
Subiaco
Small Forward
Considerations; Do the Roos go with two talls with these picks? There's been interest in Wil Dawson and Archer Reid, and if Ollie Murphy slid you'd assume they'd have a real think about him as well. I think the Roos are happy addressing a couple of different areas though, particularly with Chom being looked at as a future defender, so players in the late first round/early second round frame like Schoenmaker, Gothard could all come under consideration
Pick 24 - Collingwood - Archer Reid
203 cm 94 kg
Gippsland Power
Tall Forward/ Ruck
Considerations; Mostly just that the Pies don't traditionally use first rounders on talls, but the interest is there and for good reason given the age of Cox who has played a pretty underrate role in their front half this season, and whilst Reid isn't as big or as strong of a contested mark he'll certainly bring more natural talent. Pies areone of the clubs rumoured to be considering a bid on Will Graham, or could pull out a defender like Tew Jiath, Luamon Lual, Zane Zokstelsky or Wil Dawson given they seem to value defenders with strong work ethic
Pick 25 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Will Graham (Pick67 used - carry some sort of defecit)
186 cm 81 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Midfielder/ General Defender
Pick 26 - Adelaide - Phoenix Gothard
178 cm 72 kg
Murray Bushrangers
Small Forward
Considerations; Between Murphy and Gothard really for this run, with the need for Key Defenders seeming pretty evident, but ultimately I think Adelaide would realise that a) no one they pick here is going to fix that in the short term, and it is mostly a short term problem, and b) they're likely to be able to trade for some decent players in the near future given their promise, that'll turn into performance. I hesitate to make statements like I'm about, because I don't watch enough of other teams, but I could see him replacing Lachie Murphy at some point, or being able to release Rachele and Rankine into a role further up the field
Pick 27 - St Kilda - Archie Roberts
184 cm 79 kg
Sandringham Dragons
General Defender
Considerations; Essentially a copy and past of the Windsor one but I think the Saints target runners with their first round picks given the options thin out a bit around their third. Murphy would have to be considered but I think he's a bit 'samey' as their other KPD's currently
Pick 28 - Carlton - Ollie Murphy
200 cm 85 kg
Sandringham Dragons
Tall Defender
Considerations; Carlton don't really have many list holes at the moment that aren't likely to be filled with their off season recruiting and 2024 early look draft haul, although I do think they'd have liked to get a Gothard or Collard for a bit more X Factor to their forward mix, so on best available Murphy joins the blues. He'll tkae some time to fully develop but with the blues current trio of Weitering, Young and McGovern being pretty locked in, the Blues have the time to properly develop his game and body before Brackets moves on
Anyway I'll be releasing the Phantom Draft, which is what I think WILL/COULD happen as opposed to how I think the players rank, over this week. Round 1 up now, Round 2 will be up after that, then rounds 3, 4 and 5 will be one post as well. Anyway, enjoy, feedback appreciated but please note I'm prone to cry when things are too critical!
For the first round, given it has about 49 picks I'll update the write up over a few days, but will endeavour to get the others done in one hit
I'm not putting myself through the pain of predicting live trades, but will make mention of the possibilities I see around them
Pick 1 - West Coast Eagles - Harley Reid
187 cm 85 kg
Bendigo Pioneers
General Utility
What is there to be said about Harley that hasn't already been well covered in the media/ various different club board draft threads. It's amazing that we had Jason Horne-Francis and Nick Daicos in 2021 do as well as they did, and then get Harley come in and become the most hyped and most spoken about draft prospect ever (so far!). Not to discredit Harley of course, but just a nice moment to show how far interest in the draft has come in such a short period.
There's not much Harley does that isn't very good to elite in comparison to the rest of the crop, with his versatility, power, strength, marking and contested game all standout features of his game. Most contested beasts in years gone by have struggled with their ball use either through congestion or on the rare occasion they win it out in space, but this is no issue for Harley who regularly hits targets via hand or foot with ease with well weighted disposal.
I guess the question is what does he actually end up being at AFL level? Given his genuine elite status in every third of the ground it's not out of the question that he has a Pavlich/ Goodes style career where he spends significant amounts of time in various different roles, and for the Eagles in the spot they're in it gives them great flexibility in their list build knowing Harley can plug gaps until eventually, hopefully, probably, ending up a mid/ fwd.
I think the only real Improvement Area in his game is the Endurance side of things, which will naturally improve in an AFL environment, but what his capacity for that is in terms of ceiling and time will ultimately decide whether he's a a majority mid or majority forward player
Considerations; No one else is going Pick 1, and it's been that way for around 5 months now. There's still the possibility of a trade I guess, but given the level of the offers that have been put forward, and rejected, already, it's hard to see clubs improving those offers and even harder to see West Coast lowering their demands
Pick 2 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Jed Walter (Use Picks 24,26,27 - carry a 203 point surplus to match their next bid)
194 cm 97 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Tall Forward
Arguably the most complete Key Forward prospect we've seen come through the junior ranks in some time, there's not many players that have kicked 20 goals in the U18 Championships (across two years), there could even be only Jed!
Walter truly is the complete package as a KPF prospect; physical, athletic, aerially dominant, accurate in front of goal, natural smarts are all traits we know make up elite key forwards, hell some of the best aren't even accurate in front of goal! but what truly sets Walter apart from anyone else we've seen come through is his defensive work, manically pressuring or chasing down opponents to tackle them and force a turnover. There were a few times this season in the Champs where he laid tackles on the wing, disposed of the footy, and then busted his gut to get down to the forward line and be an option for the inside 50. To put it simply, this is a level of workrate we just haven't seen before in a KPF. Cadman to a degree had it, but wasn't nearly as physical or accurate as Walter is
The cliche of 'Tall's take time' isn't relevant either in regards to Walter, who will be playing Round 1 next year and likely have an immediate impact to the Suns as a genuine contested marking beast, with the athleticism to do it packs, to compliment the more lead up style of Ben King. It won't immediately fix their inside 50 issues, and I (on the suggestion of my dear friend Supersuns) do realise they probably need some better quality crumbers to fully take advantage of this, but it's a good shot in the arm.
Considerations; Gold Coast will match any bid for Walter, no shock there, but I do wonder whether they'll look to trade their picks in the 20's to maximise the points value they can get out of them? Clubs like Sydney, GWS, Richmond and Brisbane who are only going to take 2-3 picks and have a couple of later ones with points value may pounce at the opportunity to get better access to their preferred options after the first round, with the Eagles and Fremantle's other possibilities to want to upgrade their later picks
Pick 3 - North Melbourne - Zane Duursma
189 cm 79 kg
Gippsland Power
General Forward/ Midfielder
A season of two halfs is probably the best way to describe Zane's 2023, with a focus on developing his midfield game coming into the year Duursma was given every opportunity at Gippsland to show what he had to offer as more of a mid/fwd rather than a fwd/mid, and whilst there were some impressive displays and good development in his stoppage game and ball use under pressure, it's hard to deny that as a midfielder, we were getting mere glimpses as opposed to the consistent highlights package he offered as a forward
For more of a medium player Duursma is exceptional in the air, with his cleanliness at ground level translating well as he regularly takes one clunk grabs over head at full stretch, holding position surprisingly well against taller and stronger opposition. Whilst his disposal around the ground can be touch and go, but mostly very good, he's a consistent finisher in front of the sticks and often makes the most of his opportunities in front of goal, especially from set shots. I also really like the versaitlity Zane offers in a forward post, given his cleanliness and athletic traits he's shown he can act as an undersized marking target or more of a ground level player depending on the situation, with smarts to switch his approach as is necessary without prompting
Long term, North will be hoping Zane develops his endurance enough to play some consistent midfield minutes, even just a rotation option, given the class he can bring to the role, but even without that he'll add to what is quickly becoming an exciting and dynamic North forward line
Pick 4 - North Melbourne - Colby McKercher
180 cm 76 kg
Launceston
Midfielder
It's fair to say Colby has claims as the best pure midfielder in this years pool, and not just because of the lack of midfielders, with his line breaking ability, consistency, accumulation and work rate, McKercher has the traits to suggest he'll translate well to the elite level as either a centre square midfielder, or a winger given his elite endurance.
It's hard to narrow down what I really love about McKercher as a prospect given he's got so many strings to his bow, but I'd say that lack of clear weakness is ultimately what has drawn so many to him as a potential top 3 pick. Outside of his strength and arguably his contested game there's really no concerns about McKercher's game. He's got an elite athletic base, uses it well, has footy smarts, elite endurance, really good ball use and consistently gets high 20's to low 30's each game, and has improved in a couple of areas through the year with his scoreboard impact and one sidedness seeing increasing improvement.
Do North need more midfielders? Well yes and no, they don't need anymore inside leaning midfielders but definitely need a player of McKercher's calibre with speed and clean ball use, to fully rewarded the clearance winning efforts of LDU, Wardlaw and co. into the future. Whether or not you agree with this as a list fit, it's undeniable that McKercher is one of the 3 best available players here, and that in and of itself makes it a good list fit
Considerations; Dan Curtin and Nick Watson are the only two other players I see in contention here, with both arguably filling bigger gaps in the North Melbourne list, but everything has pointed to a Duurs and McKerch combo for a month or so now, so it'd be surprising if that changed at this point, especially with some other quality small forwards available later. Do North trade one of these picks is the other question, which moreso hinges on West Coast's demands than anything else, but I'm confident they take at least one of these picks
Pick 5 - Hawthorn - Nick Watson
170 cm 68 kg
Eastern Ranges
Small Forward
If Harley Reid is the most talked about prospect ever, then Watson is a close second. A lot of debate about Watson is focused around his height, which really just is what it is. When talking about the package of traits a player brings to their role, outside of an improvement in his defensive application, there's nothing Watson needs to add to his arsenal.
For a 170cm player, Watson can and has truly made taller opposition look silly in the air, with an elite leap and speed that allows him to gain separation easily and take the ball at a high point before opponents can fully register what happened. Watson's cleanliness in the air translates to his ground level game as well, truly an elite one touch player in all areas, Watson can crumb at full speed with no issue and is adept at the classic one hand pick up. And that's only his forward craft really, with his kicking and clear footy IQ transferrable across any area of the ground, Watson does have some potential to impact through the centre square like a Pickitt/ Brent Daniesl should a team want to explore that
For the Hawks, I guess the question is do they need Watson with Ginnivan coming in? The answer is, of course, yes! With Wingard getting older, and missing half of next season, Hawthorn have very little in the way of X-Factor and genuine athletic smalls in their ranks, with Watson projecting as a player that can turn those inside 50's that dont end up in Mitch Lewis's hands, still good opportunities to score.
Considerations; Dan Curtin continues to be linked and I do think he remains an option, but with Will McCabe coming in I think Hawthorn will be looking to address another need with a couple of players ranked evenly for this pick, as well as McKercher or Duursma if North go a different route with 2/3. I don't see a trade eventuating involving this pick unless it was a ridiculous offer from the Dees if they had a real eagerness to take the pick of bunch in this next trio of picks, or perhaps if McKercher slid and the Hawks were more fans of players in other roles
Pick 6 - Western Bulldogs - Ryley Sanders
185 cm 86 kg
Sandringham Dragons
Midfielder
One of the most consistent performers from this crop over the course of 3 years, Sanders just rocks up and gets the job done every week, regardless of specific role or any attention from opposition midfielders, his no fuss style of inside ball winning just translates well to any situation, and he's managed to add to his game throughout the year in positive ways, demonstrating an improved outside game and showing some small glimpses of how he may impact when resting forward at the next level.
When looking at most of the top midfielders at AFL level currently, Sanders has traits to match, as a clean one touch player at ground level with excellent stoppage nous, high level endurance and piercing handballs through congestion. I think Sanders kicking and speed has been somewhat underrated this year in all honesty, whilst he doesn't have the ye catching dash of a McKercher, he more often than not beats opponents in foot races on the outside and has a 20m sprint time that suggests he could become more of a burst player from congestion than we've seen this year, with the right coaching. I also think his marking is an area of his game that isn't appreciated enough, and was on display the few times he rotated through the forward line, along with his footy smarts allowing him to impact seamlessly.
I guess the main concerns around Sanders have been his ability to drive his legs out of the contest, and whether there's much development left in him physically given he's already at his AFL playing weight/ size, they're fair concerns, but I think the worst case scenario for Sanders at the next level is still a 200 game midfielder.
Considerations; This pick clearly isn't getting traded given what the Dogs gave up to get it, an offer that'd tempt the dogs would have to be 3 first rounders at a minimum you'd expect. I still think it's one of Watson or Sanders given what's likely to play out beforehand, but the dream is probably McKercher sliding down.
Pick 7 - Melbourne - Daniel Curtin
197 cm 95 kg
Claremont
Tall Defender/ Midfielder
Is he a genuine KPD, tall flanker or midfielder seems to be the reason so many are cautious on Curtin (on bigfooty at least), but the versatility he's shown this season has been truly exceptional regardless. Curtin is the only Key Defender from this years class to have effectively held Jed Walter in one-on-one battles, whilst being WA's best midfielder, simply crazy!
In my opinion, I don't see Curtin being anything other than a defender at the next level given how impactful he is down there as either a stopper or genuine interceptor, with his combination of aerial strength, one-on-one work, positioning and use by foot, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the next big thing in terms of defenders at the next level.
The 'midfielder' part of his game has been nice to see at the very least, but I'm not sure it's been convincing enough to deploy at AFL level, particularly as I feel most of his improvement areas, mostly his work below his knees, are more detrimental in the guts than down back. Perhaps he gets swung forward through his career as a point of difference, but nothing from his forward work this year was all that inspiring
Considerations; Could this be the first pick we see live traded on draft night? The Eagles future first would have to be tempting for the Dees, with it projecting as a top 3 pick in a midfielder heavy draft, arguably the most important area for them to stock up on, or could an Adelaide look to move up here to lock in a set and forget KPD? This is also the first pick where there's a bunch of links to every player. The Dees would have real interest in all of the players that have gone beforehand, as well as James Leake, Connor O'Sullivan and Nate Caddy, but I'm leaning with them going a tall either way overall.
Pick 8 - GWS - James Leake
187 cm 77 kg
Launceston
General Utility
The real draft bolter of the year, Leake shot into top 25 calculations through the Champs, and then furthered his draft credentials with some stunning performances as both a forward and midfielder in the last half of the Talent League season. Leake isn't a player that's been thrown about because 'he needs to find his best position', he's a player with genuine versatility due to his smarts and strong marking game.
As has been well advertised, Leake is a strong mark particularly for his size, both contested one-on-one and in packs, if allowed to leap for the footy there's a 99% chance he's holding onto it without much issue, but his ball use and decision making is equally as damaging after taking the mark, and, like with other prospects, has been an understated area of his game.
Sustained impact throughout games and general strength remain areas of growth, but both should be addressed quite quickly at AFL level with full time S&C programs, as well as a more consistent role throughout the year and individual games. Where he ends up playing will be an interesting watch, there was real promise in all his roles, but he does remain most impactful as a defender
Considerations; Again most of the earlier picked players would be heavily looked at, but of those available Caleb Windsor and Connor O'Sullivan are the main two that'd be considered. I wonder if this pick could be gettable in a trade should a Sydney, Adelaide or Essendon want to move up to lock in O'Sullivan
Pick 9 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Ethan Read (Picks 30, 34 used - carry 198 point surplus for next bid)
202 cm 92 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Ruck/ Tall Forward
The 'unicorn' of the draft, Read's impressed all year with his ridiculous mobility, ball use and ground level game for a player of his size, and recently took the eye of everyone as he powered home to a sub-6 minute 2km time trial at the AFL Draft Combine. It's no secret that you have to be something truly special as a ruck to go top 10, and Read has a combination of traits we haven't really seen before.
It's sort of funny that Read has taken the mantle of 'best ruck in the draft' when his strengths are arguably more suited to a key position role up either end, given his marking, positioning and previously mentioned qualities, and really his ruck craft isn't a highlight of his game. Long term I think Read's going to be a FWD/Ruck for the Suns to damaging effect, given his able to impact around the ground so effectively and Ned Moyle really is a ruck only option, it'd be the best ruck combination in the league should all go well
Shoutout to a real one when I say Read being deployed on a wing would be interesting as well, as a link up option there's no one that could match him across the board for endurance, marking proficiency and ball use heading forward
Pick 10 - Geelong - Nate Caddy
193 cm 88 kg
Northern Knights
Tall Forward
Like Nick Watson a lot of the questions around Caddy have been about his size, and whether he can translate the same play style to AFL level. It's a fair question for a key forward that's 193 cm, but as many have pointed out height isn't as limiting of a factor for KPF's as can be made out, and with Caddy's mix of athletic traits, reach and marking strength, I think he's got the tools to be a Curnow like forward target.
I'll admit Caddy is probably the only top 12 player I'm not totally enamoured with, while many have asked the question about his size I genuinely can't decide whether his kicking holds up at the next level, both around the ground and in front of the sticks, and think he remains a tad inconsistent for what you'd ideally want from a top 10 pick. He does, however, have claims for a top 3 ceiling in this draft given his x factor and how he can a turn a game on it's head with the flick of a switch.
I don't see him having that midfield potential like others do, but think if a club can nail his development they've got a top 5 FF at his peak
Considerations; Of those available it was really only O'Sullivan that was a chance outside of Caddy, and ultimately I think Geelong really need to look at some young KPF stocks with the retirement of Hawkins imminent, and Jeremey Cameron getting on as well. This is the first pick I think is more likely to switch hands than not; Essendon would love Caddy, Adelaide and Sydney would love O'Sullivan, would they be willing to trade multiple first rounders from this year or next year for the opportunity to draft those guys?
Pick 11 - Essendon - Connor O'Sullivan
198 cm 92 kg
Murray Bushrangers
Tall Utility
Considerations; Given they've just brought in McKay and invested heavily in key defenders with 2 top 10 picks in 2020, I could see the Bombers compromising on 'best available' to address their midfield, with the speed of Caleb Windsor sure to appeal to what remains a pretty one-paced midfield group. The supposed interest in Hardeman suggests a trade could be on the cards here, and like Geelongs pick Sydney and Adelaide might make an appealing offer to lock in O'Sullivan
Pick 12 - Adelaide - Darcy Wilson
186 cm 74 kg
Murray Bushrangers
Midfielder/ General Forward
Considerations; The link to Wilson is very strong if this pick is kept, but Caleb Windsor is also being linked strongly the closer we get to the draft. I think it's between them, but I also think there's an appetite to trade up so it'll be an interesting watch.
Pick 13 - Melbourne - Charlie Edwards
191 cm 85 kg
Sandringham Dragons
Midfielder
Considerations; Pretty confident this will be a midfielder, and ultimately the choice between Harry Demattia, who the Dees really like, Caleb Windsor, who the Dees really like, and Edwards came down to the fact Edwards has a better balance to his midfield game.
Pick 14 - Western Bulldogs (Matched Bid) - Jordan Croft (Picks 45, 47, 49 used - 21 point surplus)
200 cm 81 kg
Calder Cannons
Tall Forward
Pick 15 - Sydney - Will Green
204 cm 93 kg
Northern Knights
Ruck
Considerations; Sydney do well to keep their cards close to their chest and this year is no different, with Green the best link so far. Could they bid on McCabe given the need for key defensive options? Would they consider reaching for Zane Zakostelsky? Would they go against the grain of their drafting profile and take Ollie Murphy? No real link to Tew Jiath but I think he fits their drafting profile, but maybe a bit early for him.
Pick 16 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Jake Rogers (36, 61, 66 used - 61 point surplus)
170 cm 68 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Midfielder/ Small Forward
Pick 17 - St Kilda - Caleb Windsor
184 cm 76 kg
Eastern Ranges
Wing
Considerations; The Saints need runners and efficient ball users and Windsor suits well, and I don't see a world where the Saints pass on him here. Harry Demattia, Koltyn Tholstrup and Riley Hardeman may also be of interest should Windsor be off the table
Pick 18 - Hawthorn (Matched Bid) - Will McCabe (42, 45, 26 used - 285 point surplus)
197 cm 86 kg
Central Districts
Tall Defender
Pick 19 - Adelaide - Koltyn Tholstrup
186 cm 86 kg
Subiaco
Midfielder/ General Forward
Considerations; Taylor Goad and Ollie Murphy arguably fill bigger holes in the Crows list and would be around the mark here, and Harry Demattia presents as someone that could add a bit of speed to their midfield mix long term
Pick 20 - North Melbourne - Riley Hardeman
185 cm 75 kg
Swan Districts
General Defender
Considerations; With two of the next 3 picks, North likely look to take the player they have interest in that they're most worried about GWS taking. The Giants have interest in Hardeman and have expressed a desire to add to their defensive group. Other half backs in this region such as Archie Roberts may be of interest as well, or Demattia may tempt them as someone that has showed signs up either end and through the midfield
Pick 21 - GWS - Harry Demattia
185 cm 78 kg
Dandenong Stingrays
General Utility
Considerations; Really there aren't a lot of obvious holes in the GWS list, with a developing rotation FWD/RUCK and midfield depth the only two things that most agree on, perhaps a bid on Will Graham will be a consideration here as well, but there's not much else in the way of midfield options here. Taylor Goad would be in consideration as a high upside ruck prospect, whilst Tew Jiath, Luamon Lual, Lance Collard and Phoenix Gothard all fit the giants drafting profile.
Pick 22 - North Melbourne - Taylor Goad
206 cm 97 kg
South Adelaide
Ruck
Pick 23 - North Melbourne - Lance Collard
180 cm 65 kg
Subiaco
Small Forward
Considerations; Do the Roos go with two talls with these picks? There's been interest in Wil Dawson and Archer Reid, and if Ollie Murphy slid you'd assume they'd have a real think about him as well. I think the Roos are happy addressing a couple of different areas though, particularly with Chom being looked at as a future defender, so players in the late first round/early second round frame like Schoenmaker, Gothard could all come under consideration
Pick 24 - Collingwood - Archer Reid
203 cm 94 kg
Gippsland Power
Tall Forward/ Ruck
Considerations; Mostly just that the Pies don't traditionally use first rounders on talls, but the interest is there and for good reason given the age of Cox who has played a pretty underrate role in their front half this season, and whilst Reid isn't as big or as strong of a contested mark he'll certainly bring more natural talent. Pies areone of the clubs rumoured to be considering a bid on Will Graham, or could pull out a defender like Tew Jiath, Luamon Lual, Zane Zokstelsky or Wil Dawson given they seem to value defenders with strong work ethic
Pick 25 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Will Graham (Pick67 used - carry some sort of defecit)
186 cm 81 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Midfielder/ General Defender
Pick 26 - Adelaide - Phoenix Gothard
178 cm 72 kg
Murray Bushrangers
Small Forward
Considerations; Between Murphy and Gothard really for this run, with the need for Key Defenders seeming pretty evident, but ultimately I think Adelaide would realise that a) no one they pick here is going to fix that in the short term, and it is mostly a short term problem, and b) they're likely to be able to trade for some decent players in the near future given their promise, that'll turn into performance. I hesitate to make statements like I'm about, because I don't watch enough of other teams, but I could see him replacing Lachie Murphy at some point, or being able to release Rachele and Rankine into a role further up the field
Pick 27 - St Kilda - Archie Roberts
184 cm 79 kg
Sandringham Dragons
General Defender
Considerations; Essentially a copy and past of the Windsor one but I think the Saints target runners with their first round picks given the options thin out a bit around their third. Murphy would have to be considered but I think he's a bit 'samey' as their other KPD's currently
Pick 28 - Carlton - Ollie Murphy
200 cm 85 kg
Sandringham Dragons
Tall Defender
Considerations; Carlton don't really have many list holes at the moment that aren't likely to be filled with their off season recruiting and 2024 early look draft haul, although I do think they'd have liked to get a Gothard or Collard for a bit more X Factor to their forward mix, so on best available Murphy joins the blues. He'll tkae some time to fully develop but with the blues current trio of Weitering, Young and McGovern being pretty locked in, the Blues have the time to properly develop his game and body before Brackets moves on
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- Mar 14, 2014
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BigBoSS_Riot
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Us getting Wilson and Tholstrup is a big win, I'd be very happy with that. Don't know much about Gothard, but the little I've heard has been positive, and an extra small forward would be handy.
North not taking a KPP with 5 first round draft picks would be astonishing. Best available 2 and 3 so if we don’t think Curtin is the man, no issue.
But we simply must invest in at least 1, if not 2 at 15,17,18. Surely.
But we simply must invest in at least 1, if not 2 at 15,17,18. Surely.
For the life of me I can't see taking Leake with O'Sullivan still on the board.The Swans don't get O'Sullivan or Edwards. I don't like this timeline
Why would North take both Duursma and McKercher? Take McKercher and Curtin. Duursma is a one trick pony.
PMBangers
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The Collard Pick flipp flopped between Reid, Murphy and Collard a couple of times, and Dawson was considered given the links over the last week or so, and I agree that it's what should happen, just not sure North are going to want to take two talls in the first round when they've got more gaps than just KPP's on the list. Plus of course, there could be more faith in Chom's body internally
You don't take Leake but ok.
The bolded is such an astonishingly bad take I actually don't know how to respond in a constructive way
- Feb 12, 2008
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Bangers. If you were NM list Manager, Do you think it might be worth while for NM to pull the trigger on a guy like O'Sullivan a tad early, even if the can't split pick 3?
McKercher and O'Sullivan at 2 and 3 respectively (3/4)
Especially if O'Sullivan is the higher rated player as KPD?
Or is Duursma that far ahead of O'Sullivan with ceiling?
McKercher and O'Sullivan at 2 and 3 respectively (3/4)
Especially if O'Sullivan is the higher rated player as KPD?
Or is Duursma that far ahead of O'Sullivan with ceiling?
- Aug 6, 2021
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Given Duursma is almost universally ranked higher than Curtin in the phantom lists these days, are there any specific features of Duursma's skillset that could make one particularly confident that he will adjust better to the senior level than Curtin?
(Notwithstanding that any comparison between Curtin and Duursma is like apples and oranges...)
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