Draft Expert PMBangers 2023 Draft Thread

[Makeshift Park]

If anything Curtin is probably safer in my eyes, but only slightly

Thanks.

Yeah, there has been a bit of rote incantation on the North board of "select best available" lately, as an apparent justification of the speculated Duursma pick.

But I'm struggling to identify any distinct attributes that would put him head and shoulders above Curtin as a prospect.

At least when Curtin's head and shoulders are literally above Duursma.

 

[The_General#1]

Woah that year went quick, and what a year it was.

Anyway I'll be releasing the Phantom Draft, which is what I think WILL/COULD happen as opposed to how I think the players rank, over this week. Round 1 up now, Round 2 will be up after that, then rounds 3, 4 and 5 will be one post as well. Anyway, enjoy, feedback appreciated but please note I'm prone to cry when things are too critical!

For the first round, given it has about 49 picks I'll update the write up over a few days, but will endeavour to get the others done in one hit

I'm not putting myself through the pain of predicting live trades, but will make mention of the possibilities I see around them

View attachment 1851323

Pick 1 - West Coast Eagles - Harley Reid
187 cm 85 kg
Bendigo Pioneers
General Utility

What is there to be said about Harley that hasn't already been well covered in the media/ various different club board draft threads. It's amazing that we had Jason Horne-Francis and Nick Daicos in 2021 do as well as they did, and then get Harley come in and become the most hyped and most spoken about draft prospect ever (so far!). Not to discredit Harley of course, but just a nice moment to show how far interest in the draft has come in such a short period.

There's not much Harley does that isn't very good to elite in comparison to the rest of the crop, with his versatility, power, strength, marking and contested game all standout features of his game. Most contested beasts in years gone by have struggled with their ball use either through congestion or on the rare occasion they win it out in space, but this is no issue for Harley who regularly hits targets via hand or foot with ease with well weighted disposal.

I guess the question is what does he actually end up being at AFL level? Given his genuine elite status in every third of the ground it's not out of the question that he has a Pavlich/ Goodes style career where he spends significant amounts of time in various different roles, and for the Eagles in the spot they're in it gives them great flexibility in their list build knowing Harley can plug gaps until eventually, hopefully, probably, ending up a mid/ fwd.

I think the only real Improvement Area in his game is the Endurance side of things, which will naturally improve in an AFL environment, but what his capacity for that is in terms of ceiling and time will ultimately decide whether he's a a majority mid or majority forward player

Considerations; No one else is going Pick 1, and it's been that way for around 5 months now. There's still the possibility of a trade I guess, but given the level of the offers that have been put forward, and rejected, already, it's hard to see clubs improving those offers and even harder to see West Coast lowering their demands

Pick 2 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Jed Walter (Use Picks 24,26,27 - carry a 203 point surplus to match their next bid)
194 cm 97 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Tall Forward

Arguably the most complete Key Forward prospect we've seen come through the junior ranks in some time, there's not many players that have kicked 20 goals in the U18 Championships (across two years), there could even be only Jed!

Walter truly is the complete package as a KPF prospect; physical, athletic, aerially dominant, accurate in front of goal, natural smarts are all traits we know make up elite key forwards, hell some of the best aren't even accurate in front of goal! but what truly sets Walter apart from anyone else we've seen come through is his defensive work, manically pressuring or chasing down opponents to tackle them and force a turnover. There were a few times this season in the Champs where he laid tackles on the wing, disposed of the footy, and then busted his gut to get down to the forward line and be an option for the inside 50. To put it simply, this is a level of workrate we just haven't seen before in a KPF. Cadman to a degree had it, but wasn't nearly as physical or accurate as Walter is

The cliche of 'Tall's take time' isn't relevant either in regards to Walter, who will be playing Round 1 next year and likely have an immediate impact to the Suns as a genuine contested marking beast, with the athleticism to do it packs, to compliment the more lead up style of Ben King. It won't immediately fix their inside 50 issues, and I (on the suggestion of my dear friend Supersuns) do realise they probably need some better quality crumbers to fully take advantage of this, but it's a good shot in the arm.

Considerations; Gold Coast will match any bid for Walter, no shock there, but I do wonder whether they'll look to trade their picks in the 20's to maximise the points value they can get out of them? Clubs like Sydney, GWS, Richmond and Brisbane who are only going to take 2-3 picks and have a couple of later ones with points value may pounce at the opportunity to get better access to their preferred options after the first round, with the Eagles and Fremantle's other possibilities to want to upgrade their later picks

Pick 3 - North Melbourne - Zane Duursma
189 cm 79 kg
Gippsland Power
General Forward/ Midfielder

A season of two halfs is probably the best way to describe Zane's 2023, with a focus on developing his midfield game coming into the year Duursma was given every opportunity at Gippsland to show what he had to offer as more of a mid/fwd rather than a fwd/mid, and whilst there were some impressive displays and good development in his stoppage game and ball use under pressure, it's hard to deny that as a midfielder, we were getting mere glimpses as opposed to the consistent highlights package he offered as a forward

For more of a medium player Duursma is exceptional in the air, with his cleanliness at ground level translating well as he regularly takes one clunk grabs over head at full stretch, holding position surprisingly well against taller and stronger opposition. Whilst his disposal around the ground can be touch and go, but mostly very good, he's a consistent finisher in front of the sticks and often makes the most of his opportunities in front of goal, especially from set shots. I also really like the versaitlity Zane offers in a forward post, given his cleanliness and athletic traits he's shown he can act as an undersized marking target or more of a ground level player depending on the situation, with smarts to switch his approach as is necessary without prompting

Long term, North will be hoping Zane develops his endurance enough to play some consistent midfield minutes, even just a rotation option, given the class he can bring to the role, but even without that he'll add to what is quickly becoming an exciting and dynamic North forward line

Pick 4 - North Melbourne - Colby McKercher
180 cm 76 kg
Launceston
Midfielder

It's fair to say Colby has claims as the best pure midfielder in this years pool, and not just because of the lack of midfielders, with his line breaking ability, consistency, accumulation and work rate, McKercher has the traits to suggest he'll translate well to the elite level as either a centre square midfielder, or a winger given his elite endurance.

It's hard to narrow down what I really love about McKercher as a prospect given he's got so many strings to his bow, but I'd say that lack of clear weakness is ultimately what has drawn so many to him as a potential top 3 pick. Outside of his strength and arguably his contested game there's really no concerns about McKercher's game. He's got an elite athletic base, uses it well, has footy smarts, elite endurance, really good ball use and consistently gets high 20's to low 30's each game, and has improved in a couple of areas through the year with his scoreboard impact and one sidedness seeing increasing improvement.

Do North need more midfielders? Well yes and no, they don't need anymore inside leaning midfielders but definitely need a player of McKercher's calibre with speed and clean ball use, to fully rewarded the clearance winning efforts of LDU, Wardlaw and co. into the future. Whether or not you agree with this as a list fit, it's undeniable that McKercher is one of the 3 best available players here, and that in and of itself makes it a good list fit

Considerations; Dan Curtin and Nick Watson are the only two other players I see in contention here, with both arguably filling bigger gaps in the North Melbourne list, but everything has pointed to a Duurs and McKerch combo for a month or so now, so it'd be surprising if that changed at this point, especially with some other quality small forwards available later. Do North trade one of these picks is the other question, which moreso hinges on West Coast's demands than anything else, but I'm confident they take at least one of these picks

Pick 5 - Hawthorn - Nick Watson
170 cm 68 kg
Eastern Ranges
Small Forward

If Harley Reid is the most talked about prospect ever, then Watson is a close second. A lot of debate about Watson is focused around his height, which really just is what it is. When talking about the package of traits a player brings to their role, outside of an improvement in his defensive application, there's nothing Watson needs to add to his arsenal.

For a 170cm player, Watson can and has truly made taller opposition look silly in the air, with an elite leap and speed that allows him to gain separation easily and take the ball at a high point before opponents can fully register what happened. Watson's cleanliness in the air translates to his ground level game as well, truly an elite one touch player in all areas, Watson can crumb at full speed with no issue and is adept at the classic one hand pick up. And that's only his forward craft really, with his kicking and clear footy IQ transferrable across any area of the ground, Watson does have some potential to impact through the centre square like a Pickitt/ Brent Daniesl should a team want to explore that

For the Hawks, I guess the question is do they need Watson with Ginnivan coming in? The answer is, of course, yes! With Wingard getting older, and missing half of next season, Hawthorn have very little in the way of X-Factor and genuine athletic smalls in their ranks, with Watson projecting as a player that can turn those inside 50's that dont end up in Mitch Lewis's hands, still good opportunities to score.

Considerations; Dan Curtin continues to be linked and I do think he remains an option, but with Will McCabe coming in I think Hawthorn will be looking to address another need with a couple of players ranked evenly for this pick, as well as McKercher or Duursma if North go a different route with 2/3. I don't see a trade eventuating involving this pick unless it was a ridiculous offer from the Dees if they had a real eagerness to take the pick of bunch in this next trio of picks, or perhaps if McKercher slid and the Hawks were more fans of players in other roles

Pick 6 - Western Bulldogs - Ryley Sanders
185 cm 86 kg
Sandringham Dragons
Midfielder

Pick 7 - Melbourne - Daniel Curtin
197 cm 95 kg
Claremont
Tall Defender/ Midfielder

Pick 8 - GWS - James Leake
187 cm 77 kg
Launceston
General Utility

Pick 9 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Ethan Read (Picks 30, 34 used - carry 198 point surplus for next bid)
202 cm 92 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Ruck/ Tall Forward

Pick 10 - Geelong - Nate Caddy
193 cm 88 kg
Northern Knights
Tall Forward

Pick 11 - Essendon - Connor O'Sullivan
198 cm 92 kg
Murray Bushrangers
Tall Utility

Pick 12 - Adelaide - Darcy Wilson
186 cm 74 kg
Murray Bushrangers
Midfielder/ General Forward

Pick 13 - Melbourne - Charlie Edwards
191 cm 85 kg
Sandringham Dragons
Midfielder

Pick 14 - Western Bulldogs (Matched Bid) - Jordan Croft (Picks 45, 47, 49 used - 21 point surplus)
200 cm 81 kg
Calder Cannons
Tall Forward

Pick 15 - Sydney - Will Green
204 cm 93 kg
Northern Knights
Ruck

Pick 16 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Jake Rogers (36, 61, 66 used - 61 point surplus)
170 cm 68 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Midfielder/ Small Forward

Pick 17 - St Kilda - Caleb Windsor
184 cm 76 kg
Eastern Ranges
Wing

Pick 18 - Hawthorn (Matched Bid) - Will McCabe (42, 45, 26 used - 285 point surplus)
197 cm 86 kg
Central Districts
Tall Defender

Pick 19 - Adelaide - Koltyn Tholstrup
186 cm 86 kg
Subiaco
Midfielder/ General Forward

Pick 20 - North Melbourne - Riley Hardeman
185 cm 75 kg
Swan Districts
General Defender

Pick 21 - GWS - Harry Demattia
185 cm 78 kg
Dandenong Stingrays
General Utility

Pick 22 - North Melbourne - Taylor Goad
206 cm 97 kg
South Adelaide
Ruck

Pick 23 - North Melbourne - Lance Collard
180 cm 65 kg
Subiaco
Small Forward

Pick 24 - Collingwood - Archer Reid
203 cm 94 kg
Gippsland Power
Tall Forward/ Ruck

Pick 25 - Gold Coast Suns (Matched Bid) - Will Graham (Pick67 used - carry some sort of defecit)
186 cm 81 kg
Palm Beach Currumbin
Midfielder/ General Defender

Pick 26 - Adelaide - Phoenix Gothard
178 cm 72 kg
Murray Bushrangers
Small Forward

Pick 27 - St Kilda - Archie Roberts
184 cm 79 kg
Sandringham Dragons
General Defender

Pick 28 - Carlton - Ollie Murphy
200 cm 85 kg
Sandringham Dragons
Tall Defender

Good to see you managed to fit Graham in Rnd 1. I'm hearing his bid will come before Rogers.
But surprised you have given Moir thought to the first rnd

 

[ArdentEagle]

Thanks.

Yeah, there has been a bit of rote incantation on the North board of "select best available" lately, as an apparent justification of the speculated Duursma pick.

But I'm struggling to identify any distinct attributes that would put him head and shoulders above Curtin as a prospect.

At least when Curtin's head and shoulders are literally above Duursma.

That's my thinking too. It seems odd if you take Duursma. (McKercher I can understand as he seems a clear 2nd in the open pool)

 

[Tomorrow]

Thanks.
Personally I see Watson sliding to 10 or thereabouts, which would shake things up a bit. Also see less kindness to GC with earlier picks called for their remaining 3 after Walter.
And my wish is swans trade out their 1st for one next year.
Thanks

 

[Scythe94]

Would be thrilled with Curtin, PMBangers. Not sure I'd be reaching that high for Edwards though, especially if Windsor is still on the board.

Great work as always though!

 

[PMBangers]

Good to see you managed to fit Graham in Rnd 1. I'm hearing his bid will come before Rogers.
But surprised you have given Moir thought to the first rnd

Is Moir another GUARANTEED first rounder?

Thanks. Good stuff.
Personally I see Watson sliding to 10 or thereabouts, which would shake things up a bit. Also see less kindness to GC with earlier picks called for their remaining 3 after Walter.
And my wish is swans trade out their 1st for one next year.
Thanks

If Watson slides to 10 I'll delete my bigfooty account

Would be thrilled with Curtin, PMBangers. Not sure I'd be reaching that high for Edwards though, especially if Windsor is still on the board.

Great work as always though!

This is why I need to finish the write ups all of Edwards, Demattia and Windsor were in contention from those remaining, ended up going Edwards for his mix of inside and outside capabilities

 

[The_General#1]

Is Moir another GUARANTEED first rounder?

let’s just call it an educated guess

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Bangers. If you were NM list Manager, Do you think it might be worth while for NM to pull the trigger on a guy like O'Sullivan a tad early, even if the can't split pick 3?

McKercher and O'Sullivan at 2 and 3 respectively (3/4)

Especially if O'Sullivan is the higher rated player as KPD?

Or is Duursma that far ahead of O'Sullivan with ceiling?

Not sure what we'll do with 3 (although I'm confident the Duursma surge has legs) but we'll definitely draft for need with the later picks. It seems our interest in Wil Dawson is well known, if we can come out of our last four picks with four of a KPD, a ruck, a small forward, a lockdown small BP/HBF type and a KPF then we have added to every line we needed to in this draft.

I'm not convinced the urgency is there for the true elite KPD, we may have missed that boat development wise. This should be the last year the draft is a total focal point, it's time to make the pieces we have work. The parts that don't, well that's why we've been preparing our cap for some big spends in need, this will likely be that defensive pillar.

 

[Blue and Silver]

let’s just call it an educated guess

There was some talk about West Coast and family in Perth about mid-year.

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[briztoon]

Suns AFAIK are restricted to only 3 R1 bid matches.

So if Crows or whoever bid on Will Graham in R1() after Suns have matched 3 bids), they will take him & Suns cannot match.

Also if hawks manage to get back late into draft after McCabe bid, who would suit them best. Assuming we pick Watson, we would go for a tall and I am comparing btw Will Dawson and Will Brown. Not sure if ZZ would be available in late 30's or 40's.

If Duursma manages to slide to us at pick 4, then we may go short and Delean could be available..

There’s no restriction on the Suns matching any number of bids in the first round, other than having enough current and future points to do so.

Restrictions only apply to top 8 and top 4 teams.

 

[GWS Goose]

Suns AFAIK are restricted to only 3 R1 bid matches.

So if Crows or whoever bid on Will Graham in R1() after Suns have matched 3 bids), they will take him & Suns cannot match.

Also if hawks manage to get back late into draft after McCabe bid, who would suit them best. Assuming we pick Watson, we would go for a tall and I am comparing btw Will Dawson and Will Brown. Not sure if ZZ would be available in late 30's or 40's.

If Duursma manages to slide to us at pick 4, then we may go short and Delean could be available..

are you sure?
I remember something about restrictions, but only applying to those who played finals. (Im not confident on that though, and you could well be correct)
googling draft rules is not overly easy either.
Im sure someone can confirm.

 

[hawkinoz]

are you sure?
I remember something about restrictions, but only applying to those who played finals. (Im not confident on that though, and you could well be correct)
googling draft rules is not overly easy either.
Im sure someone can confirm.

My memory from an article when Suns were still in finals contention was that only 2 R1 picks if they make finals.

As you said the rules are find and then hard to decipher.

I am still not clear if a delisted player is technically an Employee of the club or not. Does it vary if they have been promised to be relisted. The EBA doc I saw states that club is supposed to pay out the outstanding salary and if someone contracts them the balance.

So is Chad still on our list and if he is on 300K for 2024 & Pies contract him for 150K, we are liable for 150K.

 

[ArdentEagle]

Not sure what we'll do with 3 (although I'm confident the Duursma surge has legs) but we'll definitely draft for need with the later picks. It seems our interest in Wil Dawson is well known, if we can come out of our last four picks with four of a KPD, a ruck, a small forward, a lockdown small BP/HBF type and a KPF then we have added to every line we needed to in this draft.

I'm not convinced the urgency is there for the true elite KPD, we may have missed that boat development wise. This should be the last year the draft is a total focal point, it's time to make the pieces we have work. The parts that don't, well that's why we've been preparing our cap for some big spends in need, this will likely be that defensive pillar.

Males sense mate. Given the absolute plethora of first round picks, you really do have many ways to skin a cat.

Bit jealous I suppose but Reid is a nice consolation I suppose.

This draft is really interesting. So many variables

 

[Jen2310]

Archer Reid is what I hope for if he is available at pies pick. This is Dekka we're talking about though who hasn't picked a tall in the first round in so long.

 

[briztoon]

are you sure?
I remember something about restrictions, but only applying to those who played finals. (Im not confident on that though, and you could well be correct)
googling draft rules is not overly easy either.
Im sure someone can confirm.

Yes.

Finish top 4, you can match 1 academy player in the first round.

Finish 5th to 8th, you can match 2 academy players in the first round.

No restrictions finishing outside the top 8.

No restrictions on father son prospects.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

There was some talk about West Coast and family in Perth about mid-year.

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Both his parents are from WA originally, and relocated to SA
Both sets of grand parents live in WA with rest of extended family
So he grew up a WCE supporter

 

[SumTingWong]

Any chance Kane Mcauliffe gets drafted?

 

[PMBangers]

Any chance Kane Mcauliffe gets drafted?

Yes

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

Any chance Kane Mcauliffe gets drafted?

Most projections have him in the 30s or 40s, so there's a pretty strong chance.

 

[PMBangers]

Might interest you Bangers..

Crows prise highly-touted father-son gun from SANFL rival

Tyler Welsh will leave Woodville-West Torrens to play with Adelaide's SANFL team next season

www.afl.com.au

I find that an interesting one, we've seen it more over the last few seasons than previously with guys like Barkla and Burgoyne at Port Adelaide, as well as Northern Academy players.

You'd know more around the Crows forward depth, think he's likely to play majority of the games with the Crows?

 

[The_General#1]

let’s just call it an educated guess

PMBangers Do u think Twomey reads my posts ?

 

[cairo tiger]

heard of a boy from rowville? Tyson Sruk? Apparently crows are into him?

 

[Jen2310]

Seems pies recruiters flew to tassie on friday to meet with Geordie Payne.

 

[eDPS]

PMBangers Do u think Twomey reads my posts ?

He could be a “first round pick’ with pick 28 which seems funny to me

 

[PMBangers]

PMBangers Do u think Twomey reads my posts ?

At this rate Mr.The_General#1 I'm convinced you're a deep cover Cal Twomey alt

heard of a boy from rowville? Tyson Sruk? Apparently crows are into him?

Interesting, put up some good performances but doesn't have a lot that screams 'draft me', but for a rookie pick I guess you're happy taking players you see being decent depth

Seems pies recruiters flew to tassie on friday to meet with Geordie Payne.

Very good decision, I have always rated the Pies recruiting team from memory