Political Discussion part #2 - Let’s go out for 10 Big Macs at the Engadine Maccas!!

[Donkey Magoo]

I've only been a casual observer of the SA election.
I was having a hard look at the polling last night.
SA Best's vote has collapsed hard in the past month or so. That vote has gone into the undecided category, the Lib Primary remains low at 34% with about 20% remaining undecided. Leader approval is even between the 3.
What this tells me people have had an overload of politics. SA Best have taken so much air that they popped and that they stole the Libs time to make an argument for Government. People don't like Jay but they don't know how they feel about Marshal.
This reminds me a lot of the 2004 Federal election and Latham in that regard. People are going to walk into the booth and vote for what they know over the unknown. Although time is a huge factor against Labor.
Unless the Lib primary recovers to its 2014 mark of 43% then I think that they are in for a long night.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

WTF I thought advertising was banned since last night, wake up this morning to an email from the local Labor candidate saying vote for me. Pretty pissed I'm on a political party mailing list.

Ban only applies to broadcast. You probably gave them your email at some point or put it on the electoral roll.

 

[jo172]

I've only been a casual observer of the SA election.
I was having a hard look at the polling last night.
SA Best's vote has collapsed hard in the past month or so. That vote has gone into the undecided category, the Lib Primary remains low at 34% with about 20% remaining undecided. Leader approval is even between the 3.
What this tells me people have had an overload of politics. SA Best have taken so much air that they popped and that they stole the Libs time to make an argument for Government. People don't like Jay but they don't know how they feel about Marshal.
This reminds me a lot of the 2004 Federal election and Latham in that regard. People are going to walk into the booth and vote for what they know over the unknown. Although time is a huge factor against Labor.
Unless the Lib primary recovers to its 2014 mark of 43% then I think that they are in for a long night.

I think much of your analysis is fair.

I don't think you've factored in how substantial the redistribution was. Labor face a difficult map

 

[Donkey Magoo]

I think much of your analysis is fair.

I don't think you've factored in how substantial the redistribution was. Labor face a difficult map

I agree with that, I was just operating on numbers and broad strokes. If the Lib primary was holding then it would be more of a factor. Aslo hard to tell where they have lost their vote. The poll is statewide, libs smash Labor outside of the major metro areas and my understanding is that SABest is doing well in those places. If so the Lib primary drop can be placed to those areas leaving it on par with its 2014 result which would again bring the redistribution back in play.
Local incumbency is a huge factor too, Labor MPs have had since the redistribution to work those patches.

 

[dogs105]

I think much of your analysis is fair.

I don't think you've factored in how substantial the redistribution was. Labor face a difficult map

They always do. Last 3 elections have had big redistributions. Labor look at the marginals and throw all their resources at seats they need.
Their 2pp continues to drop, and safe Liberal seats get safer and safer, but they manage to just win the seats they need. Has to stop sometime though.

 

[jo172]

They always do. Last 3 elections have had big redistributions. Labor look at the marginals and throw all their resources at seats they need.
Their 2pp continues to drop, and safe Liberal seats get safer and safer, but they manage to just win the seats they need. Has to stop sometime though.

The electoral boundaries commission changed their methodology at the last redistribution. It's why the ALP challenged it in court (which they haven't done previously).

It's a somewhat different ball game

 

[Donkey Magoo]

They always do. Last 3 elections have had big redistributions. Labor look at the marginals and throw all their resources at seats they need.
Their 2pp continues to drop, and safe Liberal seats get safer and safer, but they manage to just win the seats they need. Has to stop sometime though.

All politics is local.
Marginal seat campaigning is hardly a revolutionary strategy though. It boils down to incompetence that they keep getting the board and losing from there.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

The electoral boundaries commission changed their methodology at the last redistribution. It's why the ALP challenged it in court (which they haven't done previously).

It's a somewhat different ball game

Yes well, 1 vote 1 value should still be the guiding principal. There trying to turn single member electorates into some sort of statewide proportional representation seat.

 

[Punchy Bassett]

Ban only applies to broadcast. You probably gave them your email at some point or put it on the electoral roll.

Guarantee you I have never given Labor my email address

 

[brucetiki]

Guarantee you I have never given Labor my email address

Could they get it off the electoral roll?

 

[pjcrows]

Guarantee you I have never given Labor my email address

I've never given either major party my email address but received contact from both this week.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Guarantee you I have never given Labor my email address

Probably the electoral roll then.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Could they get it off the electoral roll?

Yes.

 

[jo172]

Is your email address on the electoral roll?

 

[Elite Crow]

Well interesting day already. Sold my house, bought a new house and hopefully Libs win majority.

 

[brucetiki]

Mood around the booths is rather flat. No real desire to belt the government with baseball bats.

https://indaily.com.au/news/politics/2018/03/17/sa-votes-election-night-live/

 

[Elite Crow]

Mood around the booths is rather flat. No real desire to belt the government with baseball bats.

https://indaily.com.au/news/politics/2018/03/17/sa-votes-election-night-live/

Umm that’s clutching at straws a bit. What do they expect people voted Liberals to come in with a horn?

I went about my busy quietly and it’s pretty clear what I voted for.

 

[jo172]

Mood around the booths is rather flat. No real desire to belt the government with baseball bats.

https://indaily.com.au/news/politics/2018/03/17/sa-votes-election-night-live/

I did 7.5 hours. No mood for baseball bats but definite mood for change (albeit Hartley may be a huge outlier given X)

X himself was there half the day too, nice bloke but interesting he wasn't touring other electorates

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Mood around the booths is rather flat. No real desire to belt the government with baseball bats.

https://indaily.com.au/news/politics/2018/03/17/sa-votes-election-night-live/

FOUR MORE YEARS! FOUR MORE YEARS! FOUR MORE YEARS!

 

[Elite Crow]

I did 7.5 hours. No mood for baseball bats but definite mood for change (albeit Hartley may be a huge outlier given X)

X himself was there half the day too, nice bloke but interesting he wasn't touring other electorates

Did you ask him where his costings were?

 

[Donkey Magoo]

I did 7.5 hours. No mood for baseball bats but definite mood for change (albeit Hartley may be a huge outlier given X)

X himself was there half the day too, nice bloke but interesting he wasn't touring other electorates

That means that he's either really selfish, worried about his seat or has given up on them.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Did you ask him where his costings were?

That spiv would never do detail. He's all tip and no iceberg.

 

[brucetiki]

Umm that’s clutching at straws a bit. What do they expect people voted Liberals to come in with a horn?

I went about my busy quietly and it’s pretty clear what I voted for.

Tom Richardson's mentioning it, and he's a massive Liberal. If there was an air of change, he'd be the first to report it.

 

[jo172]

Did you ask him where his costings were?

No, just asked him to continue to pressure the major parties into providing funding pro bono legal services.

He's not a bad bloke, just has no business governing

 

[brucetiki]

That means that he's either really selfish, worried about his seat or has given up on them.

I'd say he's worried about his seat. If he was a clear favourite, he'd probably be touring the state today.