Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[ronpingwins]

Any temptation to lay Biden as the Dem nominee at $1.50?

 

[ash_1050]

Have taken a nibble on Kamala Harris to be Presidential Election winner at $67 on PointsBet.

Im not sure if Biden at his age is even a cert to make it through the election, so have taken a dabble on the VP.

Good bet, into $30 on Betfair and $26 on Pointsbet.

It's a long time between now and November and either candidate can step down or die between now and then. Even Betfair reckons the chances are quite high as the perceived two horse market has Trump @ $2.12 and Biden @ $3.95.

Chucked a few bucks on as follows:
Dean Phillips @ $120 as he's the only other declared Democrat major candidate.
Kamala Harris @ $30 and Nikki Hayley @ $46
DeSantis @ $270 because if Trump dies he's back with a vengeance.
Gavin Newsom @ $14 as a nominal saver bet.

 

[maskmcgee]

Kamala Harris to be Presidential Election

Even if she became the nominee she's more unpopular than Biden, as hard as that is to do right now. Much further to the left, don't know if she has any chance of winning states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Trump at $2.10 to win the US Election?

Michelle Obama would also be a decent bet at 9-1?


I've never been big on Politics. Maybe I'll have to start following.

 

[taurus]

Genuinely interested in people's views.

It's neck and neck but I believe that Trump has significant advantage in the battleground states where the election would be won.

Also if Biden drops out due to health, Trump or Republicans win.

If Trump is replaced by someone else, I think Biden loses as middle voters more likely to vote republican.

 

[PurpleEyes]

In a fair election, Trump would most likely win.
Trump will not win in 2024.
I had a bet on Michelle Obama at 33/1 believing that she would be given the nomination in August.
Not as sure now, but quite certain they will not let Trump win.

 

[maskmcgee]

Historical patterns say Republicans should win this election. Probably quite easily too. Historically unpopular president (more unpopular than Trump ever was), bad economy, going for 4 out of 5 election wins. Not quite 2008, but a Republican should be able to get an Obama 2012 size win in this election. But with Trump? Who knows.

 

[teddyrichardsgoat69]

A couple of months ago Biden was paying 3.40 now he is 2.10. Odds will only continue to firm for Biden. Inflation and RFK jr are the wild cards in this race, Trump needs both of these to be significant factors if he is to win. As it stands inflation is holding and RFK jr is diminishing in relevance.

Not to mention the $$ advantage the Dems have.

 

[teddyrichardsgoat69]

Genuinely interested in people's views.

It's neck and neck but I believe that Trump has significant advantage in the battleground states where the election would be won.

Also if Biden drops out due to health, Trump or Republicans win.

If Trump is replaced by someone else, I think Biden loses as middle voters more likely to vote republican.

What do you think is the significant advantage?

 

[taurus]

What do you think is the significant advantage?

Racism in the battleground states. Biden's unpopularity despite steady progress the administration has made. Abortion in some of those states.

Trump polls better in those states.

The betting market has already decided that the democrats would win the popular votes.

 

[teddyrichardsgoat69]

I would have to disagree with you on abortion working against Biden. It was only a month ago the Dems picked up a seat in deep red Alabama* with a swing of +25 mostly due to the abortion issue. It's an issue which absolutely favours the left and is virtually undefeated on the ballot.

As for the polls for this time of year they have little predictive value, however they are good for measuring trends/momentum. And all the trends favour Biden.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Anyone used polymarket?

Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

Bet on your beliefs

polymarket.com

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Today.

 

[maskmcgee]

Most ridiculous though is the winner of the first debate according to CNN poll, Biden is 2$, and as far as I'm concerned, 100% certain to win such a poll regardless of his incompetent preformance.

Had no idea there was a debate any time soon, but apparently there is in 11 days. Both Biden and Trump $1.83. Not quite as simple this time since Trump is not only winning polls, he's winning the vast majority of them - Biden winning just 3 of the last 19, all by only 1%, according to 538. I can't find a CNN poll more recent that April, when Trump lead Biden by 9. But alot of these polls have Trump topping out around 42% in 5 way polls, so there's room for Biden to still beat him, and I struggle to imagine CNN executives allowing Trump to win a debate poll.

 

[KENT2008]

So what happens if you have a bet on trump winning but he gets taken out before voting? Bets will be void I assume?

 

[HeathySure]

So what happens if you have a bet on trump winning but he gets taken out before voting? Bets will be void I assume?

you get the sub...

 

[maskmcgee]

So now Trump is running unopposed, at least for the moment.

 

[ep2018]

I put $100 on Harris winning the presidency at $14 a couple weeks ago when it was clear Biden would stand down. His VP was the only realistic person who could stand in his place. Looking like a genius move now.

 

[rank and file]

I put $100 on Harris winning the presidency at $14 a couple weeks ago when it was clear Biden would stand down. His VP was the only realistic person who could stand in his place. Looking like a genius move now.

Kamala into $2.60

 

[ep2018]

Kamala into $2.60

She will be $1.40 come election day (Trump $3.10) imo

 

[Gavin Excell]

Any temptation to lay Biden as the Dem nominee at $1.50?

Nice

 

[ep2018]

Have taken a nibble on Kamala Harris to be Presidential Election winner at $67 on PointsBet.

Im not sure if Biden at his age is even a cert to make it through the election, so have taken a dabble on the VP.

Incredible call

 

[NYRB]

It's a long time between now and November and either candidate can step down or die between now and then.

Not a bad shot on the 'die ' part. Trumps shooting though , spelt the end of Bidens campaign ironically.

The question for me now , is who does Kamala Harris have has her wingman (Vice President ) heading into these elections. Don't know too much about Mark Kelly , all I know was he was a former astronaut.

 

[anabac]

Harris into $2.40 now

 

[maskmcgee]

So it seems Josh Shaperio is a cert for VP, but still paying $1.25?