Mega Thread Port Forum 'General AFL Talk' Thread Part 5 - Cont. in Part 6

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I would like to sneak into the top 4 and get the crows in week one. We've already been smashed by them this year and been smashed by them in a final. If we lose it's a bit of a case of "oh well, it sucks, but we've already been here so i'll just deal with it and move onto next week".

There would be HUGE expectation and pressure on them and very little on us. It's almost a free hit at them. Almost.
 
I would like to sneak into the top 4 and get the crows in week one. We've already been smashed by them this year and been smashed by them in a final. If we lose it's a bit of a case of "oh well, it sucks, but we've already been here so i'll just deal with it and move onto next week".

There would be HUGE expectation and pressure on them and very little on us. It's almost a free hit at them. Almost.

Win or lose it would mean we get 2 home finals technically. Best way of making it to a prelim to be honest.
 
I would like to sneak into the top 4 and get the crows in week one. We've already been smashed by them this year and been smashed by them in a final. If we lose it's a bit of a case of "oh well, it sucks, but we've already been here so i'll just deal with it and move onto next week".

There would be HUGE expectation and pressure on them and very little on us. It's almost a free hit at them. Almost.
We've been smashed by every team we are likely to face (Crows, Melb, Dons).
So annoying.
 
4 teams on 11 wins and could be joined by the Saints tomorrow. Melbourne should win and go to 12 wins so still 4 teams playing for 8th spot. Amazing last round coming up.
 
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Percentage will determine who we play in the first week of the finals. Should Richmond win both their games as expected they will be the last team in the four. Sydney are just behind us at the moment but they have Carlton while we have the Suns. Should the unthinkable happen and we lose to the Suns we will be 6th as our percentage is much better than Melbourne's who are two games behind us. Essendon are also two games behind us with one to play so they cannot challenge, If Sydney beat Carlton by 10 points more than we beat the Suns they will also finish above us, and that will probably mean they will be 5th and we will be 6th.

So we will finish no lower than 6th, we could be fourth depending on what Sydney and Richmond do, we could be 5th if Carlton play out of their skins and beat or only lose by a little to Sydney.
 
I would like to sneak into the top 4 and get the crows in week one. We've already been smashed by them this year and been smashed by them in a final. If we lose it's a bit of a case of "oh well, it sucks, but we've already been here so i'll just deal with it and move onto next week".

There would be HUGE expectation and pressure on them and very little on us. It's almost a free hit at them. Almost.

Wrote this soon after the showdown loss.

Top 4 is within reach and in the space of 1 month we'll be a totally different unit to the one that lost to Adelaide by 90 points, especially if it's s sunny day.

Adelaide is beatable. If it bleeds...
 
Wrote this soon after the showdown loss.

Top 4 is within reach and in the space of 1 month we'll be a totally different unit to the one that lost to Adelaide by 90 points, especially if it's s sunny day.

Adelaide is beatable. If it bleeds...

I just feel like our players would play with more daring and aggression with all the weight of expectation lifted from them and heaped onto the opposition, especially knowing we get another shot at it at home if we lose. Boak, Dixon, Hartlett and a lot of our prime movers are just hitting their straps now. It wouldn't be easy, but I reckon our players would relish such a shot at redemption so soon after one of their most embarrassing performances against the same opponent.
 

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True, but let's not forget they also beat them at AO in the last round in 2016 as well.


Committed Schadenfreudists won't forget that game in a hurry...

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To the mathematicians around, I have some questions.

SANFL's percentage is [PF/(PF+PA)]*100, while AFL's is (PF/PA)*100.

Is there a substantial difference between the two? Yesterday I came to realize that AFL's % privileges good defenses more than good offenses, since low scoring teams seem to get a bigger percentage booster. Is that true?

Perhaps a way to favour attacking would be Goal Differential, like this:

GD = (PF/6)–(PA/6)

What do you all think?

--

P.S.: GD, Port v Sydney

Port: 63.6
(2033/6)–(1651/6) = 338.8–275.2

Sydney: 60.1
(1955/6)–(1594/6) = 325.8–265.7

We would have a 3.5 GD (21 points) advantage over the Swans.
 
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To the mathematicians around, I have some questions.

SANFL's percentage is [PF/(PF+PA)]*100, while AFL's is (PF/PA)*100.

Is there a substantial difference between the two? Yesterday I came to realize that AFL's % privileges good defenses more than good offenses, since low scoring teams seem to get a bigger percentage booster. Is that true?

Perhaps a way to favour attacking would be Goal Differential, like this:

GD = (PF/6)–(PA/6)

What do you all think?

I believe that the SANFL percentages and the AFL percentages are equivalent in the order which they rank teams for a given PA and PF, so it shouldn't matter which you use. If you substitute x = PF/PA (the AFL formula) into the SANFL equation you get SANFL% = AFL%/(AFL%+100%). The SANFL equation does have the nice property of seemingly shrinking the differences between teams though, a range from 38% - 60% looks like a healthier competition than 63% - 153%.

You will change your percentage more if you have fewer points against, that's true, although it does cut both ways - a huge loss will put a big dent in your percentage. That means that the ideal percentage boosting tactic would be to play Ross Lyonball against the top teams and then come out super aggressive against the bottom teams.

Your Goal Differential idea is interesting, although it is unfairly harsh on defensive teams, as most will agree that a 70 - 58 win is much more convincing than a 122 - 110 win and these would be rewarded the same. Although you could argue that it's not a bad idea in terms of rewarding attacking football, it would be too uneven across teams that play in the wet and then teams with Etihad home games.
 
It pretty funny that the AFL and channel 7 have scheduled a game next week in its flagship time slot with nothing riding on it other than i being the farewell game of two individuals.
I hope it gets the lowest ratings of any Friday night game ever.

How do you even promote such a dud fixture?
 
It pretty funny that the AFL and channel 7 have scheduled a game next week in its flagship time slot with nothing riding on it other than i being the farewell game of two individuals.
I hope it gets the lowest ratings of any Friday night game ever.

How do you even promote such a dud fixture?

It is common worldwide. Fans care, and if teams are popular, people will tune in. Silly, but true.
 
I believe that the SANFL percentages and the AFL percentages are equivalent in the order which they rank teams for a given PA and PF, so it shouldn't matter which you use. If you substitute x = PF/PA (the AFL formula) into the SANFL equation you get SANFL% = AFL%/(AFL%+100%). The SANFL equation does have the nice property of seemingly shrinking the differences between teams though, a range from 38% - 60% looks like a healthier competition than 63% - 153%.

You will change your percentage more if you have fewer points against, that's true, although it does cut both ways - a huge loss will put a big dent in your percentage. That means that the ideal percentage boosting tactic would be to play Ross Lyonball against the top teams and then come out super aggressive against the bottom teams.

Your Goal Differential idea is interesting, although it is unfairly harsh on defensive teams, as most will agree that a 70 - 58 win is much more convincing than a 122 - 110 win and these would be rewarded the same. Although you could argue that it's not a bad idea in terms of rewarding attacking football, it would be too uneven across teams that play in the wet and then teams with Etihad home games.

Head to head would be better if we met twice or met once on neutral ground.
 
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