Mega Thread Port Forum General AFL Thread Part 28

[davesnothere]

I get that is definitely medical negligence but couldn’t Petracca himself say “no, I don’t think I can get back out there?”

You're on over a million dollars a year. 100,000 fans desperate for a win. You are a leader at the club.

There's a bit of pressure.

It has to be taken out of your hands.

 

[Jojay]

C'mon you knew it was coming..we don't deserve to be in the finals race.

And spare a thought for the Crows. Hard done by....again.

PORT Adelaide capitalised on a softer than expected fixture on its way to a home qualifying final, while its crosstown rival was dealt a brutal run in 2024.


View attachment 2094246

Whose fixture was hardest? Power capitalise, Crows dealt brutal run

Which teams ended up with the hardest and easiest draws in 2024?

www.afl.com.au

Lol how's that even possible? 6-7 weeks ago we were told our draw would see us missing the eight but now we've had the easiest draw out of everyone?? flipping bush league

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Lol how's that even possible? 6-7 weeks ago we were told our draw would see us missing the eight but now we've had the easiest draw out of everyone?? flipping bush league

I think a large part of our now considered “softer” draw is that fact that 2 months ago both Carlton and Freo were top 4. They both lost to us and both fell down the ladder in the last month of the season.

A part of that is the fact they lost to us but also their injury luck.

If they remained top 4, then that would have had quite an impact on these results.

 

[PowerBaz]

Listening to excuses for Freo on fox on the couch Browny saying freo missing 3 key pillars and a young side with under 50 games. Did he even look at Port? It was literally 8 players for freo under 50 games and Port had 6. The age average is roughly the same. Port has Visentini as a key forward rotating ruck and big Sav as forward still getting it right. Missing Houston too and Farrell out during with injury. Yeah, they were missing Pierce in defence and Tracey up forward but seriously... they still would have lost. Freo definitely good side and should have been top 8 but they stuffed up..there's no way Browny can genuinely say they had a hard run home when Port had IMO one of, if not THE hardest run home and they all had Port losing majority.

Have you realised yet nobody gives two shits about Port. Mid-table and pulling in some cash is where the AFL want us.

They don’t want us coming close to a flag.

For the first time in a long time I can see in the team a willingness to fight hard and scrap, led by JHF and Butters, also Sweet.

If we snag it this year with the outs all
They will talk about is getting players to Carlton….

 

[jdeezy]

I love how the degree of difficulty is based solely on just 5 games with no regard for the chicken/egg dynamic between winning/losing these games and the impact on ladder position in a tight season.

Meanwhile Victitlements like Collingwood finishing their season with 7/8 games at the MCG doesn’t factor into the equation at all lol.

It's really stupid. By their measurements, Melbourne playing Collingwood in a dead rubber was a "harder" game than Port playing a live Freo trying desperately to get in the finals, but it's only measured as easier because we won and kept them to 10th in the process.

Ah well, happy with us continuing to be overlooked, as long as we aren't preparing for a "well nobody expected us to win anyway" finals capitulation.

 

[Vagabond0]

Have you realised yet nobody gives two shits about Port. Mid-table and pulling in some cash is where the AFL want us.

They don’t want us coming close to a flag.

For the first time in a long time I can see in the team a willingness to fight hard and scrap, led by JHF and Butters, also Sweet.

If we snag it this year with the outs all
They will talk about is getting players to Carlton….

I remember driving home from 2004 Grand Final and listening to Melbourne radio. After talking briefly about Port winning it, mostly Caro having some sort of insight to Choco, felt like within 30 minutes they were already sweeping it under the carpet and talking about how the Vic sides will go next season.

We literally silenced the haters.

 

[Powertron]

Given the bizarre nature of the home and away season,

It wouldn't surprise to see Carlton fall in and win the thing.

It's just that type of season

If they continue to get 8-1 free kick counts in their favour in the last quarter like on Sunday it may well happen!

 

[Brian McGee]

The ladder was so tight this year. The reason that the teams at the top had “easy” draws is because they won more games, meaning the teams they beat were lower on the ladder.

It’s a chicken and egg thing. If the crows won more games the teams they beat would have finished lower as well… they just weren’t good enough.

 

[Malibu#27]

* The expected degree of difficulty was calculated by adding the 2023 ladder positions of the teams a club plays twice. A low total score means a club has a tougher fixture; a high total score means an easier fixture.

* The actual degree of difficulty was calculated by adding the 2024 ladder positions of the teams a club played twice. A low total score means a club has a tougher fixture; a high total score means an easier fixture.


How… ahhhh… “scientific”.

Given how tight the ladder is, this is pretty simplistic. I replkicated hwat they did but instead of using ladder position, I used points (so a highewr number means tougher draw), the order changes a little.

Adelaide still isted as hardest, we move up a few.

This doesnt take into account location, travel factor etc, days break, etc.

ADEL	336​
COLL	324​
RICH	310​
MEL	300​
W B	294​
SYD	292​
NM	288​
BRIS	278​
ESS	262​
FREO	260​
CARL	256​
ST K	256​
GEEL	254​
W C	240​
PORT	232​
HAW	226​
GOLD	204​

 

[Malibu#27]

The ladder was so tight this year. The reason that the teams at the top had “easy” draws is because they won more games, meaning the teams they beat were lower on the ladder.

It’s a chicken and egg thing. If the crows won more games the teams they beat would have finished lower as well… they just weren’t good enough.

Thats true. On the weekend when we played freo, if we had lost, Freo is in the 8, so our draw is considered harder, but we won, Freo end up 10th.

 

[TeeKray]

I love how the degree of difficulty is based solely on just 5 games with no regard for the chicken/egg dynamic between winning/losing these games and the impact on ladder position in a tight season.

Yep. Classic example being Freo. Flip the two close wins we had against them and they finish 5th whilst we finish 8th. Because we won those games we finished 2nd and they finished 10th and our draw looks 'easy'.

A better calculation would throw number of wins and percentage into the equation rather than just ladder position - eg playing Melbourne (14th) and Adelaide (15th) twice is not close to the same as playing West Coast (16th), North (17th) or Richmond (18th) twice.

 

[240volt]

What about poor Carlton that had to play Norf, WC and Richmond a total of five times this year.
Amazing they made the 8 when you add the travel factor to it.

 

[Grave Danger]

ALL YOUR STATISTIC ARE BELONG TO US

 

[pstew2dstew]

I was looking at the brownlow odds, we finished 2nd yet our best chance at it is Butters and JHF who aren't even in the top 15. Possibly top 20.


Now finishing 2nd somebody has to take our votes Connor probably isn't going to poll as well as he did which leaves Wines Butters and JHF.

Is it me or is the afl world criminally underrating our chances for someone at our club to win it.

Those votes have to go somewhere

 

[TeeKray]

I was looking at the brownlow odds, we finished 2nd yet our best chance at it is Butters and JHF who aren't even in the top 15. Possibly top 20.


Now finishing 2nd somebody has to take our votes Connor probably isn't going to poll as well as he did which probably leaves Wines Butters and JHF.

Is it me or is the afl world criminally underrating our chances for someone at our club to win it.

Those votes have to go somewhere

The problem is that Butters, JHF and Wines are going to split the votes hard. To win a Brownlow these days you need 30+ votes and that's very hard to do unless you're the clear standout midfielder in a good team. My guess is Butters and JHF both end up high teens/low 20s and Wines gets mid teens.

 

[pstew2dstew]

The problem is that Butters, JHF and Wines are going to split the votes hard. To win a Brownlow these days you need 30+ votes and that's very hard to do unless you're the clear standout midfielder in a good team. My guess is Butters and JHF both end up high teens/low 20s and Wines gets mid teens.

Hmm maybe but as I said those votes have to go somewhere. I don't see them going anywhere besides those 3.

Houston and Drew may bob up.

 

[Brian McGee]

Hmm maybe but as I said those votes have to go somewhere. I don't see them going anywhere besides those 3.

Houston and Drew may Bob up.

Rozee will poll well early. Horne Francis late.

 

[240volt]

The problem is that Butters, JHF and Wines are going to split the votes hard. To win a Brownlow these days you need 30+ votes and that's very hard to do unless you're the clear standout midfielder in a good team. My guess is Butters and JHF both end up high teens/low 20s and Wines gets mid teens.

We have an even team with guys like Butters,JHF,Wines and even your mate Rozee all having some impact throughout the year.
Guys like Daicos and Cripps would find it much harder to win playing with those sort of players around them.

Basically you need to be in a ok side that has some good plodders and be the one stand out player.
Extra advantage if you play for a Vic side and the media love you.

 

[240volt]

Rozee will poll well early. Horne Francis late.

Definitely Rozee will , he’ll get around a 12 or more votes, Butters and JHF more than that plus you have guys like Wines who is a past winner and will also get votes.
We’ll poll a lot of votes but we are a more even side this year.
The one good thing about all this is we are a better side for it.

 

[pstew2dstew]

Rozee will poll well early. Horne Francis late.

True but I think of the early 2000s Brisbane, those guys were stacked with vote pullers

Judd Kerr Cousins. WCE

 

[Bevoman]

Have you realised yet nobody gives two shits about Port. Mid-table and pulling in some cash is where the AFL want us.

They don’t want us coming close to a flag.

For the first time in a long time I can see in the team a willingness to fight hard and scrap, led by JHF and Butters, also Sweet.

If we snag it this year with the outs all
They will talk about is getting players to Carlton….

The harder they play, the Sweeter the Butter Horn

 

[Ford Fairlane]

For the love of God, No! It can't be over!

 

[240volt]

For the love of God, No! It can't be over!

Nice pick up for the Crows, has plenty of upside and only 31 years old.

 

[PowerBaz]

Nice pick up for the Crows, has plenty of upside and only 31 years old.

They are getting Kernahan to come to the Crows too, destination club.

 

[DaTBird187]

I was looking at the brownlow odds, we finished 2nd yet our best chance at it is Butters and JHF who aren't even in the top 15. Possibly top 20.


Now finishing 2nd somebody has to take our votes Connor probably isn't going to poll as well as he did which leaves Wines Butters and JHF.

Is it me or is the afl world criminally underrating our chances for someone at our club to win it.

Those votes have to go somewhere

That’s why I got on JHF at 250-1.

He polled 15(?) votes last year and is streets ahead of that this year. He’s single handedly won us games and we’re second. He’ll give it an absolute shake.