- Thread starter
- #51
Richmond has not won a game and lost by 50 points to Adelaide. A team that has not won any other game they have played.
If we lose to Richmond we're a bottom 4 team. Are you saying you think we might be a bottom 4 side?
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Predict the Margin for the Richmond Game
- Thread starter lamaros
- Start date
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Richmond has not won a game and lost by 50 points to Adelaide. A team that has not won any other game they have played.
If we lose to Richmond we're a bottom 4 team. Are you saying you think we might be a bottom 4 side?
- May 28, 2008
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On a given day we are yes. Hence our mental attitude will decide the contest.
You are incredibly naive.
Do you think we are better than Carlton because we've beaten them in the last 6 encounters?
Clue up.
- Thread starter
- #54
What has that got to do with anything? Carlton are about the same as us I would have thought, in a bit better form this year but not a huge amount. We've had a good run against them, but we've hardly routinely smashed them.
And as far as past matches go, only the ones from last year really count as far as form goes, if any do.
Get off your superstitious horse and face reality. Richmond is clearly the worst team in the competition and if we can't beat them then we're nowhere near making finals.
table tennis
Bigfooty class clown
A lot of Bombers supporters on Richmonds board suggesting we may lose......
c'mon turn coats, sure we have been inconsistent, but surely people do not believe that we will lose this game.
We might not smash them, but surely, after the devastatingly poor performance we put in against them late last season, the boys will want to atone for that, and I have faith that they will rise to the challenge.
c'mon turn coats, sure we have been inconsistent, but surely people do not believe that we will lose this game.
We might not smash them, but surely, after the devastatingly poor performance we put in against them late last season, the boys will want to atone for that, and I have faith that they will rise to the challenge.
JuDDysthacaptain
Team Captain
Essendon by 7
Essendon by 30
If this was not the Dreamtime match I would have said Richmond by 12.. As much as I would love to see them win by 198 points, I just can't see it happening. And if it does, I will be well and truely convinced that the Bombers have finally achieved some consistency..
That is the most frustrating part. We can not judge Essendon on the prior week's form, it just doesn't work that way. I know we shouldn't look to the past, but in doing so, 2009 saw some very frustrating games..
If this was not the Dreamtime match I would have said Richmond by 12.. As much as I would love to see them win by 198 points, I just can't see it happening. And if it does, I will be well and truely convinced that the Bombers have finally achieved some consistency..
That is the most frustrating part. We can not judge Essendon on the prior week's form, it just doesn't work that way. I know we shouldn't look to the past, but in doing so, 2009 saw some very frustrating games..
- Round 3 we beat the inform Carlton, only to go down to a terrible North Melbourne in Round 4
- Round 5 (ANZAC Day) beat Collingwood and everyone got excited, then went on to look woeful against Brisbane in Round 6 (43 point loss)
- Round 13 we belted Carlton, only to get belted by Collingwood in round 14
- Round 20 become the first team of the season to defeat St. Kilda, only to become Fremantle's b@!#$ in Round 21
antongrbac
Draftee
bombers by 36
- May 11, 2003
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bombers by 40 pts. Anything less than that will be disapointing.
We are miles ahead of that rabble.
We are miles ahead of that rabble.
13 points is an absolute belting...
We should win by 6 goals.
We should win by 6 goals.
- Nov 23, 2008
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draw
Kong
Hall of Famer
- Oct 11, 2007
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If this happens, you can be Mod* for a day.
Nothing to do with superstition. Some teams play / match up better against others who are better teams. Yes, we are clearly a better team than Richmond. No, that doesn't equate to us belting them. Hence the Carlton example. They might not be miles ahead of us but they are still slightly ahead of us yet they have dropped their last 6 (comfortably beaten in the last two outings).
I don't for a second would believe Port are better than us (but not worse) yet look at their record against us. Some teams are motivated to get up on the day and produce (or reproduce) a performance capable of winning or at least making a close contest.
- Thread starter
- #67
I posted this in the other thread, but I'll put it here too:
Richmond's margins this year (all losses):
56 points
72 points
55 points
55 points
39 points
108 points
50 points
3 points
Average 55 point loss.
Last year's 8 games before they beat us:
40 point loss (to us!)
3 point victory
68 point loss
15 point victory
56 point loss
17 point loss
20 point loss
Drew
Average 23 point loss.
Huge difference. You can talk about them playing better than us recently all you want. The fact is they are AWFUL this year, far far worse than they have been any of the times they have beaten us recently. And we're playing better too.
Trends end because teams change. All signs point to the gap between Richmond and Essendon having changed, so I would expect us to win. Reasonably.
- Thread starter
- #69
You somehow think a game we played against Richmond 5 years ago has any relevance on how we will play on Saturday night.
Yeah. Good one.
Please point out how those games have relevance. Maybe look at the line-ups of the two sides and show me how similar they are for Saturday night to last year? Let alone 2005...
"Richmond" and "Essendon" don't exist in the abstract. They are made up of 22 players each week and those players have form, history, and blah blah. Nothing you have said has anything to do with the two sets of players that are running out this weekend and their form this year.
It's complete superstition.
Maybe watch some football played this year. Richmond are a shit team and we will beat them.
I reckon you guys will win this but mainly because Richmond are just rabble at the moment.
Not sure if this counts but Essendon by 49
Not sure if this counts but Essendon by 49
WHERE THE **** HAVE I MENTIONED A GAME AGAINST RICHMOND 5 YEARS AGO? Now you are pulling complete contrived bullshit straight out of your clacker.You somehow think a game we played against Richmond 5 years ago has any relevance on how we will play on Saturday night.
Yeah. Good one.
Please point out how those games have relevance. Maybe look at the line-ups of the two sides and show me how similar they are for Saturday night to last year? Let alone 2005...
"Richmond" and "Essendon" don't exist in the abstract. They are made up of 22 players each week and those players have form, history, and blah blah. Nothing you have said has anything to do with the two sets of players that are running out this weekend and their form this year.
It's complete superstition.
Maybe watch some football played this year. Richmond are a shit team and we will beat them.
This is not "superstition" as no where have I stated "I have bad feeling about this" or "gut feeling tells me...". I believe Essendon will win but to look purely at Richmond's record this year and not consider what happened last year nor the fact that Essendon has proven to be very very inconsistent (fact, don't even bother arguing this point) means that we are no certainty to win... or win by any great margin.
- Thread starter
- #72
You know why Richmond has beaten us so much recently? Because we've played worse than them.
Since 2005 we've lost to them 7 times and won twice. But,
Since 2005 we've won 39 games.
Since 2005 Richmond has won 41 games.
This year we've won 3.
This year Richmond hasn't won a single game and have an average losing margin of 55 points.
We've played pretty consistently over the last three weeks and beat St. Kilda (who are still a fine team) over the weekend. Richmond has been beaten by 50 by Adelaide, in their only win, and lost to a Hawthorn side that were horrible - and that we beat by 40 - despite playing their best game for the season.
There's no reason to suggest we'll somehow struggle. I've watched Richmond's last few games and some earlier in the season. Richmond is not playing good football at all this year, and we - comparatively - are.
Since 2005 we've lost to them 7 times and won twice. But,
Since 2005 we've won 39 games.
Since 2005 Richmond has won 41 games.
This year we've won 3.
This year Richmond hasn't won a single game and have an average losing margin of 55 points.
We've played pretty consistently over the last three weeks and beat St. Kilda (who are still a fine team) over the weekend. Richmond has been beaten by 50 by Adelaide, in their only win, and lost to a Hawthorn side that were horrible - and that we beat by 40 - despite playing their best game for the season.
There's no reason to suggest we'll somehow struggle. I've watched Richmond's last few games and some earlier in the season. Richmond is not playing good football at all this year, and we - comparatively - are.
Equus
????????????
So because of 7 games where the average losing margin is close to 55 points, you automatically assume that you'll beat us by 73 points?
Somehow I get the feeling that you're relying on stats a bit toooo much. Sure we might not have won a game but who's to say that we won't beat you and get our first win this round? Stats?
Somehow I get the feeling that you're relying on stats a bit toooo much. Sure we might not have won a game but who's to say that we won't beat you and get our first win this round? Stats?
- Thread starter
- #74
Stats are just a way of trying to express how bad you guys have been this year, not the reasoning. (It's also just a way to throw back the absurdity of the "Richmond are our bogey team, look at the stats!!!" people on this board.)
Games aren't decided on stats, but that can indicate some things.
I've watched your last three games, and patches from earlier games in the year. I've watched every Essendon game this season (most a couple of times). I firmly believe that you have played rubbish football, and I think we have turned the corner since ANZAC day and played some good consistent footy.
You've looked better in some ways the last two because you've played Adelaide and Hawthorn and played 7 close quarters of footy. But no mistake, that's just because those two teams are travelling really poorly, not because you guys have improved that much.
Anything can happen, maybe. But given the form of the two sides this year, not the stats but the quality of play in their games, Essendon should be the favourite and predicting a margin of 40+ points is not unreasonable in any way.
- Thread starter
- #75
This is where I get the 2005 thing from btw. People say we have a poor record against Richmond because we've lost 7 of 9.
But that 9th game was in 2005. If you go from, say, last year we're 1 from 2. Which doesn't mean a whole lot of anything as far as a record goes.
Given how different the two teams are now (only 24 players who played in our match last year will play this weekend) I fail to see how going back before 2009 is of any relevance on saying how the game this weekend will go.
People who give credence to form from a time when the two teams were 70% different in player make-up are not being reasonable, they're being superstitious.
Far more reasonable to go on form this year, which as I have said many times in this thread, is one in which Richmond is playing awful awful awful, so that even the inconsistent teams are easily beating them, let alone the other shockers (Hawks, Adelaide).
Incidentally we've both played Geelong, Carlton, Freemantle & Essendon.
They lost by 108 to Geelong, we lost by 31 (77 difference)
They lost by 56 to Carlton, we won by 20 (76 difference)
They lost by 3 to Hawthorn, we won by 43 (46 difference)
They lost by 39 to Freemantle, we lost by 44 (-4 difference)
Average difference per game, 48.5 points.
So maybe I should have predicted we'd win by 49 points?
