Predict the Margin for the Richmond Game

[Equus]

Interesting justification. I've watched all of the games for Richmond this year and, contrary to your view, we're playing a lot better football than the beginning of the year. We strung 4 quarters together last game and with out confidence and the standard set, I think we're going to win this game in a very tight match.

FWIW, Richmond by 5

 

[lamaros]

Interesting justification. I've watched all of the games for Richmond this year and, contrary to your view, we're playing a lot better football than the beginning of the year. We strung 4 quarters together last game and with out confidence and the standard set, I think we're going to win this game in a very tight match.

FWIW, Richmond by 5

Maybe you've improved a bit, I can't say I watched full matches from the start of the season apart from the opening game against Carlton, but to my view Essendon have improved immensely since ANZAC day and would have been 5-3 if we'd played all season like we have the last three weeks.

I absolutely hope you guys come out on Saturday night and play your best game for the season and push us hard. I hope we come out hard and beat you despite all that. I'm not going to take much from a game where it's not a good contest and skill displayed from both sides...

I just can't see it happening.

I'm making a prediction based of the footy I've seen the last couple of rounds. I've dialled it up a bit in this thread because I think there are too many Essendon fans who aren't prepared to call a spade a spade and say that Richmond has been shocking this year (and honestly, it's one of the worst opening 8 rounds to a season in a long long time) and we should win, but I do reasonably expect that the Dons will get up by 40+.

I know for sure I'll cop it if we don't.

 

[Equus]

Maybe you've improved a bit, I can't say I watched full matches from the start of the season apart from the opening game against Carlton, but to my view Essendon have improved immensely since ANZAC day and would have been 5-3 if we'd played all season like we have the last three weeks.

I absolutely hope you guys come out on Saturday night and play your best game for the season and push us hard. I hope we come out hard and beat you despite all that. I'm not going to take much from a game where it's not a good contest and skill displayed from both sides...

I just can't see it happening.

I'm making a prediction based of the footy I've seen the last couple of rounds. I've dialled it up a bit in this thread because I think there are too many Essendon fans who aren't prepared to call a spade a spade and say that Richmond has been shocking this year and we should win, but I do reasonably expect that the Dons will get up by 40+.

I know for sure I'll cop it if we don't.

I'm making a prediction based on the footy I've watched the last couple of rounds. I've conservatively estimated the margin of the Tigers beating you and I do believe that some of the Essendon fans have reason to worry when playing against the Tigers. Not just based on history but also the form that the Tigers are striking up. Like how you suggested Essendon has improved immensely after the ANZAC game, we have improved significantly after the Geelong game as well.

So if this Richmond team that you're predicting that is going to capitulate by 73 points is based on the first 6 games that you watched or read about as well as the margins, you [strike]need a good backhander[/strike] need to be roundhouse kicked. The Tigers are improving and this game is just the game that you might well lose.

 

[lamaros]

I'm making a prediction based on the footy I've watched the last couple of rounds. I've conservatively estimated the margin of the Tigers beating you and I do believe that some of the Essendon fans have reason to worry when playing against the Tigers. Not just based on history but also the form that the Tigers are striking up. Like how you suggested Essendon has improved immensely after the ANZAC game, we have improved significantly after the Geelong game as well.

So if this Richmond team that you're predicting that is going to capitulate by 73 points is based on the first 6 games that you watched or read about as well as the margins, you [strike]need a good backhander[/strike] need to be roundhouse kicked. The Tigers are improving and this game is just the game that you might well lose.

I'll make a new prediction... Number of posts you'll make in this thread after this weekend: 0

 

[Equus]

I'll pop in to say good game. Thus, ruining your prediction.

 

[Kong]

No trolling will be tolerated, just for the record.

My eyes are already bleeding enough from this thread

 

[Godzke]

Incidentally we've both played Geelong, Carlton, Freemantle & Essendon.

They lost by 108 to Geelong, we lost by 31 (77 difference)
They lost by 56 to Carlton, we won by 20 (76 difference)
They lost by 3 to Hawthorn, we won by 43 (46 difference)
They lost by 39 to Freemantle, we lost by 44 (-4 difference)

Average difference per game, 48.5 points.

So maybe I should have predicted we'd win by 49 points?

Wow. Just wow. Someone who actually subscribes to the "if team A beat team B and B beat C then A must beat C" theory.

Too much naivety for me. Will have to place you on the ignore list to shield my eyes from future stupidity.

Really painful reading.

 

[Jesse Custer]

Wow. Just wow. Someone who actually subscribes to the "if team A beat team B and B beat C then A must beat C" theory.

Too much naivety for me. Will have to place you on the ignore list to shield my eyes from future stupidity.

Really painful reading.

No need for that. Just keep trying to explain it, might sink in one day.

 

[Godzke]

I've tried to dumb it down several times but to no avail. Someone else can try and I will spare myself the nonsense when reading through threads on this board.

 

[George Washington]

Essendon... 1 point.

 

[lamaros]

Wow. Just wow. Someone who actually subscribes to the "if team A beat team B and B beat C then A must beat C" theory.

Too much naivety for me. Will have to place you on the ignore list to shield my eyes from future stupidity.

Really painful reading.

If you think I'm saying we'll beat Richmond because of who we've played you're deliberately missing the point. I've repeatedly stated that we'll beat Richmond because of how we've played and how they've played.

All you have said is this:

"I believe Essendon will win but to look purely at Richmond's record this year and not consider what happened last year nor the fact that Essendon has proven to be very very inconsistent (fact, don't even bother arguing this point) means that we are no certainty to win... or win by any great margin."

Because I don't think you're an idiot and don't want to troll and argue with other Essendon supporters who seem to be well intentioned I'll respond one last time.

1: I'm not looking purely at Richmond's record this year. But I am looking mostly at this year. Because different years are different and the form during the same year means a whole lot more than that of the previous year.

See Geelong 06-07 (10 wins, 18 wins: went from inconsistent team to one of the best ever), Melbourne 06-07 (13 wins, 5 wins: went from decent team to laughing stock), etc etc as examples (not arguments, examples). Teams can change their form significantly over a years time. It might be a touch early to say we're less inconsistent, but it's not too early to say Richmond is a whole lot worse.

Richmond were competitive in many matches last year and had a few wins, but this year they have been routinely outplayed by everyone apart from the two other teams currently on the skids, Adelaide and Hawthorn.

2: Even taking into account last year's form, we have no reason to be cautious. Last year we were one from two against Richmond. We had a 40 point win and a 5 point loss. If the closest they can get, when playing a fair bit better and us playing inconsistently is FIVE POINTS then why is it unreasonable for us to be confident given our last three weeks and their last three weeks?

3: Richmond were travelling a lot better last year, both on results and on form (ie: what I watched from them at the game) before they played and beat us.

3.a: Of the players who played in our loss to Richmond last year, 24 or 44 are playing this weekend. Both teams are vastly different, so last year's result isn't that serious a baraometer, it just shows how much has changed since then.

4: Essendon's inconsistency. We're #1 and #2 in tackles and contested footy this year. We've played inconsistently in matches and were poor earlier in the year, but over the last three games we have maintained similar from from game to game. Teams change. I don't think we're as inconsistent as we were last year, and I think the last three weeks prove that.

No team is ever a certainty to do anything, of course. But that's not a self contained argument. As far as the match goes this weekend we are rightly considered the favourites to win, and to win somewhat comfortably.

At the end of the day I think we've turned a corner this year and think Richmond have been horrible. You disagree. Fine. But that doesn't make my prediction (or the predictions of most of the fans in this thread) necessarily unreasonable. We just have different opinions.

And come Saturday night we'll see who's opinion was more on the money. (Which is the point of this thread). I know I'll have the good grace to say "my bad, we're still inconsistent bleh" if we have a shocker. I hope you'll feel as comfortable saying "my bad, we have turned the corner and we put them away nicely" if we have a good win.

 

[hugorune]

Hmm, my prediction is Essendon by 35.

 

[Bombers 03]

bombers by 87 points

 

[ESS 93]

Dons by 22.

 

[smcateer]

Richmond lost by 108 in round 6, 50 in round 7, and 3 in round 8.

So, by linear extrapolation ... Richmond by 49 points.

P.S. this method also predicts that they will win every game for the rest of the year and ultimately win the grand final by just shy of 900 points.

 

[yaco55]

Maybe you've improved a bit, I can't say I watched full matches from the start of the season apart from the opening game against Carlton, but to my view Essendon have improved immensely since ANZAC day and would have been 5-3 if we'd played all season like we have the last three weeks.

I absolutely hope you guys come out on Saturday night and play your best game for the season and push us hard. I hope we come out hard and beat you despite all that. I'm not going to take much from a game where it's not a good contest and skill displayed from both sides...

I just can't see it happening.

I'm making a prediction based of the footy I've seen the last couple of rounds. I've dialled it up a bit in this thread because I think there are too many Essendon fans who aren't prepared to call a spade a spade and say that Richmond has been shocking this year (and honestly, it's one of the worst opening 8 rounds to a season in a long long time) and we should win, but I do reasonably expect that the Dons will get up by 40+.

I know for sure I'll cop it if we don't.

This is a problem of these particular threads.

Nothing against you Lamaros - It is difficult to post reasoned opinions without watching the opposition.

 

[lamaros]

This is a problem of these particular threads.

Nothing against you Lamaros - It is difficult to post reasoned opinions without watching the opposition.

Err? Reading fail? I've watched Richmond... And judging by the game tonight... well...

 

[Rocky_Star_Pro]

Bombers by 38 points

3 points off

 

[ESS 93]

The Bombers by 35 points.

Spot on. Well done