Predicted/desired trades for 2007

[blueheart]

Kidding yourself.

He is a Queensland local with family and business ties to Brisbane. Not only that but he is probably worth every bit as much as Brad Ottens was when Geelong drafyed him. minimum of two 1st round picks

Alllrighty then!
If that is the case Fev is worth 4 1st round picks

 

[fev13]

Warnock will never get traded, all you have to do is look at there ruck stocks at freo, theve got sandilands who you would have to say is one of the most dominate rucks in the league, longmuir who is injury proned and probaly suits playing up foward more then in the ruck and then there Warnock who has been choping at wafl level so why would they get rid of there backup ruckman, if they did they would have to play a pinch ruckman like a mcpharlin which would take him out of a spot and leave a massive hole.


Warnock Safe Unless Freo get earlie draft pick and tall.

 

[Snoop Dog]

Have not read any of the previous posts re Fevola. My view is that he would get;

A top 10 pick as well as one in the 10-15 range.

You need to consider the quality of this years draft when thinking about what he is worth in draft picks. This year is not as good as last years and he is the same age as Tarrant.........but better.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

Have not read any of the previous posts re Fevola. My view is that he would get;

A top 10 pick as well as one in the 10-15 range.

So you think that 3-4 years of Fevola kicking 70-80 goals while whinging to umpires and beating up barmen is worth sacrificing the entire careers of Paddy Ryder and Shannon Hurn?

 

[Snoop Dog]

MSG - you are assuming a club would get players like that.

I could also point out two footballers who have gone top 20 who have not done anything and hence would make the trade look fine.

Some of you blokes think top 20 picks are gtd 200 gamers and forget about the fact this bloke will be the difference to some side (eg WCE, Bullies, Cats)

This draft would be comparable to 05 when you guys gave up pick 18 or so for Watts......if Watts was worth 18 then Fevola would easily be worth the above.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

MSG - you are assuming a club would get players like that.

I could also point out two footballers who have gone top 20 who have not done anything and hence would make the trade look fine.

Some of you blokes think top 20 picks are gtd 200 gamers and forget about the fact this bloke will be the difference to some side (eg WCE, Bullies, Cats)

This draft would be comparable to 05 when you guys gave up pick 18 or so for Watts......if Watts was worth 18 then Fevola would easily be worth the above.

In 2005 the only players who went in the top 10 that haven't all but secured their spot in their team from 2008-onwards are Kennedy, Dowler, Oakley-Nicholls and Drum. These players still look like they will be pretty good with further development.

If you go back 7 or 8 years then yes, the draft is very hit and miss so it wasn't a bad idea to trade a high draft pick for an established player, but these days it would be very surprising if there were more than 2 flops in the top 10 of a decent draft.

The poster suggested that Fevola's price would be a top 10 pick and another pick from 10-15. Even if you pick out the worst two eligble players from 2005 (probably Dowler and Drum), most clubs probably wouldn't give up those two for Fevola.

 

[DanA]

Alllrighty then!
If that is the case Fev is worth 4 1st round picks

You can put all the little faces in your post that you want. Ottens was traded for pick 12 & pick 16, that's two first round picks. I would suggest that Charman is of a similar value.

Regarding Fevola I think Snoop Dog is about right. Looking at previous trades (Tarrant, Barry Hall etc) Fev would go for roughly a top 10 pick and late 1st rounder.

 

[sabre_ac]

Who mentioned Warnock?
Seriously....He is one of the last players freo would trade.

He killed Luenburger last year and there is only 1 year between them, in highnsight had he been taken a year later he would have gone allot higher in the draft.

His value is a top 5 pick, even then freo would not trade.

We all know how hard it is to find champion ruckmen.

 

[blueheart]

You can put all the little faces in your post that you want. Ottens was traded for pick 12 & pick 16, that's two first round picks. I would suggest that Charman is of a similar value.

Regarding Fevola I think Snoop Dog is about right. Looking at previous trades (Tarrant, Barry Hall etc) Fev would go for roughly a top 10 pick and late 1st rounder.

So you are now comparing not only Charman but Ottens to Fev??
Anybody with half a clue about the game wouldn't rate them higher than Fev

 

[POBT]

So you are now comparing not only Charman but Ottens to Fev??
Anybody with half a clue about the game wouldn't rate them higher than Fev

He didn't rate them higher - he rated them the same.

FWIW, I think there is a ceiling trade value for any player, no matter how good he is. I'm not sure what that is but I would say 2 x top 15 picks would be getting pretty close. The fact that Fevola is probably a substantially better player than Ottens (I'm not getting into that argument) doesn't mean that he will be worth substantially more in a trade. A point is reached where a club simply cannot give up too much to get 1 player, no matter how good that guy is.

To give an example only, if West Coast wanted to get Fevola in a trade, they obviously would need to put their first round pick on the table - say pick 14. Carlton definitely want 2 first round picks, 1 inside top 10 so West Coast have to look at what they can give to another club to get pick 1-10. Clubs don't give up top 10 picks very easily and so West Coast are going to have give up a lot to get that - it might be something like Hurn and their second round pick (as an example). So to get Fevola, they have to give up pick 14, a former first round pick who looks to be very good and has played 20 games and a second round pick. No matter what a club's depth, that is a substantial chunk of talent gone in exchange for 1 player who has probably 5 years left in the game.

But if you try and up the ante again and ask for another first round draft pick, West Coast have to try and get that from somewhere. Let's say Adelaide have pick 15 and are willing to give it up. Pick 15 also doesn't come cheaply so now West Coast have to give up even more of their talent (let's say Beau Waters and a third round pick) to try and match Carlton's asking price.

So now the swap, effectively, is Fevola for pick 14, pick 30, pick 48, Waters and Hurn. But West Coast are going to be very reluctant to enter into this deal. It means giving up 2 already very good players and basically their whole involvement in a single draft year for one player.

As I said, an example only - I don't put this forward as to what the trade would look like, just to demonstrate that clubs would be very wary of committing much more than two top 15 draft picks in a trade.

All of this is also impacted by the logistical realities of trying to engineer such a multi-faceted trade with parties who aren't going to give up their top draft picks until they have taken their pound of flesh from West Coast. I doubt whether it could be done in the short period of time available.

This all goes back to my original point - there is a ceiling on the trade value of an individual player. No matter how good the player in question is, clubs can't always give what the trading club wants. Fevola might be twice the footballer that Ottens is - but I wouldn't be surprised if his trade value is almost the same.

 

[mj23]

what would the swans be looking for at the end of the year any thoughts. I think possibly a key forward with hall and micky o getting a bit long in the tooth. What would it take for the swans to get Ryan Murphy from freo or do u think they would opt for a ready made player. Or even another running backmen for when kennely leaves maybe Mattner from Adelaide?

 

[Snoop Dog]

In 2005 the only players who went in the top 10 that haven't all but secured their spot in their team from 2008-onwards are Kennedy, Dowler, Oakley-Nicholls and Drum. These players still look like they will be pretty good with further development.

If you go back 7 or 8 years then yes, the draft is very hit and miss so it wasn't a bad idea to trade a high draft pick for an established player, but these days it would be very surprising if there were more than 2 flops in the top 10 of a decent draft.

The poster suggested that Fevola's price would be a top 10 pick and another pick from 10-15. Even if you pick out the worst two eligble players from 2005 (probably Dowler and Drum), most clubs probably wouldn't give up those two for Fevola.

I was the poster that said Fevola in this years draft would command a pick around 8 and 15. Tarrant got 8 and effectively 30-40 in a much stronger and deeper draft. Fevola is a better player, kicks twice as many goals. Goals win premierships and clubs that are looking to shore up their fwd line for a tilt at the trophy would give this up.

PS You can add Kennedy to that list.

 

[Silvagnis]

PS You can add Kennedy to that list.

To the list of the worst performed draftees?

I hope you're trolling because you have no idea.

I wouldn't give up a player with Kennedy's attitude and work rate for a Fevola if my side was rebuilding. As far as I know, JK hasn't take any short cuts on the track. I read that Fev who used to jog laps inside the boundary line just on two years ago. Kennedy was given the chance to sit out a team hike after he was drafted because he had shoulder surgery, but went on the hike with his arm in a sling.

Oakley-Nicholls, Dowler, Ellis, Clark and Drum have done less than Kennedy.

 

[DanA]

So you are now comparing not only Charman but Ottens to Fev??
Anybody with half a clue about the game wouldn't rate them higher than Fev

WTF... Where did I compare Ottens to Fev. I said Ottens was traded for pick 12 & 16 which is two first round picks. I then went on to say Charman would be worth the same.

Therefore you can reasonably deduce that Ottens in 2004 was worth roughly the same as Charman in 2006. That does not equate to saying Ottens and Charman are as good as Fevola!

In a separate unrelated paragraph I addressed snoopdogs comments regarding Fevola. I said he would be worth a top 10 pick & a late 1st round based on what Barry Hall and Tarrant were traded for in the past.

1 A top 10 pick + a late 1st round (picks 12-16) is worth a fair bit more than pick 12 & 16.
2 Charman now and Ottens in 04 do/did not have an attitude problems.
3 Ruckmen traded have genrally comanded a premium.
4 Charman is 3 years younger than Fevola

In no way did I say Ottens and Charman are as good a player as Fevola!

I would put a little red embarrassed face next to my post too if I wrote that drivel you just did.

 

[spuno]

jamie charman to saints....leigh montagna to lions

nathan lonie+3rd or 4th rounder to adelaide...scott welsh to port

brendan fevola to eagles....jayme graham+1st and 3rd rounder to carlton

pure suggestions dont be gays and go off your nuts

 

[The Flying Belgian]

jamie charman to saints....leigh montagna to lions

nathan lonie+3rd or 4th rounder to adelaide...scott welsh to port

brendan fevola to eagles....jayme graham+1st and 3rd rounder to carlton

pure suggestions dont be gays and go off your nuts

Charman came out today and has said he won't be going anywhere. Doubt Montagna would want out of the Saints either. Have you heard something?

The Fev one would close, except Carlton would have to delist another 2 players to accomodate it.

 

[hulld]

any deal involving a "superstar" would need a top 5 draft pick as a first rounder won't lookas good this year compared to last year.

so west coast would need to upgrade their first rounder if it was to be part of the fevola deal.

or they would have to trade quality players aswell

i'm not saying it won't happen but it would have to come at a big cost to get a big name this year

 

[High Ryder]

How about the following?

Ivan Maric + a 3rd pick for Angus Monfries.

 

[Silvagnis]

How about the following?

Ivan Maric + a 3rd pick for Angus Monfries.

You want to put Monfries up for trade?

Why?

 

[RED AND BLACK SOLDIER]

I think Fev is worth a top 3 pick and a 1st/2nd rounder, in this draft anyways.

 

[Ants]

You want to put Monfries up for trade?

Why?

I'd like to know as well.

 

[ericpascoe]

With Fevola I'd like to know what other clubs would think of these

Fev for

Adelaide - 1st round pick + Maric
Brisbane - 1st round pick + 2nd round pick
Collingwood - Straight Swap - Fraser
Essendon - 1st round pick + Laycock
Fremantle - Got Tarrant, wouldnt want him
Geelong - Wouldnt want him
Hawthorn - Ditto
Melbourne - 1st round pick
Kangaroos - 1st round pick + Hale
Richmond - 1st round pick
St Kilda - 1st round pick + Gram or Montagna
Sydney - 1st round pick + O Keefe, Fosdike, J Bolton or Malceski
Western Bulldogs - Straight Swap, Higgins
West Coast - First round pick + Waters, Hurn or Seaby


Before you bleat, gun key forwards go for heaps

 

[DanA]

With Fevola I'd like to know what other clubs would think of these

Fev for

Adelaide - 1st round pick + Maric
Brisbane - 1st round pick + 2nd round pick
Collingwood - Straight Swap - Fraser
Essendon - 1st round pick + Laycock
Fremantle - Got Tarrant, wouldnt want him
Geelong - Wouldnt want him
Hawthorn - Ditto
Melbourne - 1st round pick
Kangaroos - 1st round pick + Hale
Richmond - 1st round pick
St Kilda - 1st round pick + Gram or Montagna
Sydney - 1st round pick + O Keefe, Fosdike, J Bolton or Malceski
Western Bulldogs - Straight Swap, Higgins
West Coast - First round pick + Waters, Hurn or Seaby


Before you bleat, gun key forwards go for heaps

My thoughts:

Adelaide - seems about fair price
Brisbane - not be interested in my opinion
Collingwood - not going to give up there only decent ruckmen
Melbourne - Carlton getting ripped off
Kangaroos - seems about fair
Richmond - not looking for 27 years olds to build a team around
St Kilda - Giving up too much
Essendon - about the right price
Sydney - O'keefe, Malcheski or Bolton + 1st round would be too much
Bulldogs - Carlton getting ripped off
Westcoast - about right

 

[notting18]

Brisbane - not be interested in my opinion

Agreed with by most lions posters and the most important man - Leigh Matthews

 

[mj23]

SWANS-What about M Mcveigh he's 22 was a number 5 pick and a first rounder