List Mgmt. Premiership window - list age profile

[Jelly Bean]

There is little doubt we are approaching an age cliff.

Our backline looks to be the youngest section of our team, and after Howe goes, there probably isn't a need to refresh much (versus upgrade) through new personnel. And with the likes of Ryan, Dean, and other youngsters on the list, we seem solid enough for a few years. I can definitely see Murphy retiring early though through concussion.

Our forwardline is in a little trouble, but not dire. Mihocek will go down quickly in my view, and is very hard to replace. Kreuger a good option, but unproven at senior level and breakable. Elliott out for Johnson is straightforward. While McStay isn't young, he seems to have a long contract still to run. Our small / medium forwards are all pretty young.

The midfield obviously is the glaring issue. Adams and Mitchell probably only have 2 years left each max. Same with Pendles and Sidey. Same with Cox (max). Same with Crisp frankly - I think his form was lagging this year until finals. I don't rate WHE or Lipinski as being able to step up. De Goey mid aged. As to current young replacements from outside the 23, there isn't much. Macrae may or may not make it, Allan has not yet shown whether he may make it one day. Reef has some doubt on him also. I think we need to target hard young mids (inside mostly) in the coming drafts / trading, and we need to sign that 213 cm basketballer who nominated us earlier this year (Condon?) and start developing him in the ruck.

The other positive is that we will have a lot of salary coming off the books after 2 years, and so we could pick the best FAs you'd expect.

 

[manicpie]

The premiership window will remain open while we have Fly.

 

[JLC]

I think the important distinction from other potential dynasties that never eventuate is that this is not really Flys preferred list.

I expect the first half of next season to be about developing some of the youth. It may cost us a win or two but not overly fussed.

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[Ugene41]

The premiership window will remain open while we have Fly.

And Nick

 

[jmac70]

With a premiership now in the bag, and proof that Naicos is a geniune superstar whose game holds up in the big finals, I'm hoping we have the basis to create a geniune Pies dynasty era. A lot is made out about our list profile and how "old" by average age it is and how we might fall off the cliff. I think with the right trades/FA to complement, we can maximise the return we get from having a once in a lifetime Naicos on our list for the next 10+ years.

I've categorised our players by 3 year age cohorts and whether they are top tier (ie previous AA quality, top 5 BnF, Brownlows, Norm Smiths etc) or role players.

Age cohorts as at start of next season

Vintage (33+) - expect 5-10 big games (ideally in finals): Top tier (Pendles, Sidey, Howe), Role players (Cox)

Veterans (30-32) - expect 10-15 big games: Top tier (Crisp, Mitchell, Adams), Role players (Mihocek, Elliott, WHE)

Prime (27-29) - expect 15-20 big games: Top tier (JDG, Moore, Maynard), Role players (McStay, Cameron, Markov, Frampton)

Improving (24-26) - expect 10-15 big games: Top tier (Jaicos, Hill, IQ), Role players (Murphy, Lipinski, Noble, Johnson)

Breakouts (21-23) - expect 5-10 big games: Top tier (Naicos), Role players (McCreery, Ginnivan, Reef, Macrae)

Looking at this, you'd expect we'd still be right in the window for another 1-2 years whilst these age cohorts remain relatively unchanged. By end of 2025 though, as the current Vintage crop retires and our current Prime group becomes veterans (ie JDG, Moore, Maynard), you'd probably expect a drop off.

At that stage it might not be a bad idea to do a mini rebuild in the 2025/26 drafts post North priority pick compromised drafts and just before the Tasmanian team comes in to try find a couple more top tier draft talent to complement Naicos as he moves into his prime years. Similarly, that would be the time to go big on a gun 27 year old free agent to complement the (Jaicos, Hill, IQ) cohort which is weaker than our current Peak group of JDG/Moore/Maynard.

As to what to do right now, given our limited draft capital I'd see whether we can package up picks to try get a higher first round pick to have a better shot at a top tier talent or target more Hill type high upside F2 trades (e.g. Denver Grainger-Barass), or top up with FA veterans for free for the next 1-2 years. The key thing will be really trying to develop the McCreery/Ginnivan/Reef/Macrae/Allan/Ryan and hope a couple can become top tier quality like IQ and Hill have become.

We will win another two with this list.

 

[WakeUpPies]

We probably would have - it is Thomas that we wouldn't have had. We'd have still had pick 4 in the draft.

Thomas who was our best player across the 2 grand finals. My point is teams need to have down years to have the picks to select/trade for generational talent. It’s how we got Pendles, Thomas, Reid, Brown, Sidey and Beams & made grabbing our F/Ss easier.

I’m hopping we can add a couple of pieces this off-season, give the young guys more playing time next season, win a flag, and then naturally have a couple of bad years when the current core retires. Maybe draft a couple of future legends to run around with Nick!

 

[No SPIN]

I think there's definitely players that have proven to be more durable who have the ability to do it whilst there's others like Adams/Elliott that have at best 1-2 years left due to mounting soft tissue/historical injuries etc.

Apart from his leg break, Mitchell has consistently played 20+ games each season. Crisp will probably be continuing his consecutive games streak till 300 games! Like Isaac Smith, his running game can easily see him impact till he's 34.

GW said recently, when asked about Mitchell having scans, that he has neck and back issues that need management.
Given the punishment he puts his body through I’m not surprised, and doubt he’ll play past 32.

 

[Nicco_jj]

Our problem is definitely that four of our best six players in the grand final were 35, 33, 32 and 30.

If we don't prioritise getting some of Ryan, Allan, Macrae, Bianco up to AFL standard through exposure then we will not compete with GWS next finals series.

Yea which is why it might be worth trying to time a mini rebuild in 25/26 before Tassie comes in 2028 and try get at least 2x top 10 picks in over those two years. Potentially even look at trading out one of our better players if they can attract a first round pick in those years and then rebuy back into that age group when we are contending again from 2027 onwards.

We're definitely going to need key position (the hardest to find in the draft) players in the coming years. Moore should stick around for a bit, but Howe, Mihocek will be old, Cox will be old and McStay will be slowing.

The other issue is Sidebottom and Pendles are generational talent (esp Pendles) so that is difficult to replace. Although, insert Naicos and that's about as close as you'll find to Pendles (and with more speed).

I do have concerns over the lost from 2025 onwards and would forsee a potential Geelong style "miss a year of finals" in that period to recoup and focus on younger talent. Also remembering Geelong's prolonged stay in finals was due in part to getting a stack of B+-A+ grade FAs in the last 8 years. Cameron, danger, Smith, Rohan, et Al.


I think Pies are going to have to nab a top 10 KPF pick and a solid ruck through the draft in the next couple of years, or land good ones in free agency. However, there's few out of contract cause they're getting locked in to 8 year deals lol.


I think I'd like to see Beau head in to the midfield by/in 2025 to provide grunt. Hopefully Fin comes on, too. But we'll need to actually give him opportunity in 2024, which may mean intentionally resting Pendles and Sidey and co.

But other than that I do think our list profile presents some challenges. I'd love to see the club go hell for leather in 2024 to go back to back, before a potential (short) drop in 25/26 to recoup.


Ultimately with Mcrae at the helm, whether we're in "win now" mode or high development phase of rebuild, I'm really confident we won't stay down for long!

 

[gappa]

 

[JLC]

We're definitely going to need key position (the hardest to find in the draft) players in the coming years. Moore should stick around for a bit, but Howe, Mihocek will be old, Cox will be old and McStay will be slowing.

The other issue is Sidebottom and Pendles are generational talent (esp Pendles) so that is difficult to replace. Although, insert Naicos and that's about as close as you'll find to Pendles (and with more speed).

I do have concerns over the lost from 2025 onwards and would forsee a potential Geelong style "miss a year of finals" in that period to recoup and focus on younger talent. Also remembering Geelong's prolonged stay in finals was due in part to getting a stack of B+-A+ grade FAs in the last 8 years. Cameron, danger, Smith, Rohan, et Al.


I think Pies are going to have to nab a top 10 KPF pick and a solid ruck through the draft in the next couple of years, or land good ones in free agency. However, there's few out of contract cause they're getting locked in to 8 year deals lol.


I think I'd like to see Beau head in to the midfield by/in 2025 to provide grunt. Hopefully Fin comes on, too. But we'll need to actually give him opportunity in 2024, which may mean intentionally resting Pendles and Sidey and co.

But other than that I do think our list profile presents some challenges. I'd love to see the club go hell for leather in 2024 to go back to back, before a potential (short) drop in 25/26 to recoup.


Ultimately with Mcrae at the helm, whether we're in "win now" mode or high development phase of rebuild, I'm really confident we won't stay down for long!

Fly only has one mode and that's winning.





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[domus]

Yep

GWS are my flag tip for next year. Reckon they'll be unstoppable

We need to get the succession plan going asap for 2024. Kreuger, Allan, Macrae, McInnes and Dean all need to be making their way into the side.

Why? No team will be unstoppable.

 

[domus]

There is little doubt we are approaching an age cliff.

Our backline looks to be the youngest section of our team, and after Howe goes, there probably isn't a need to refresh much (versus upgrade) through new personnel. And with the likes of Ryan, Dean, and other youngsters on the list, we seem solid enough for a few years. I can definitely see Murphy retiring early though through concussion.

Our forwardline is in a little trouble, but not dire. Mihocek will go down quickly in my view, and is very hard to replace. Kreuger a good option, but unproven at senior level and breakable. Elliott out for Johnson is straightforward. While McStay isn't young, he seems to have a long contract still to run. Our small / medium forwards are all pretty young.

The midfield obviously is the glaring issue. Adams and Mitchell probably only have 2 years left each max. Same with Pendles and Sidey. Same with Cox (max). Same with Crisp frankly - I think his form was lagging this year until finals. I don't rate WHE or Lipinski as being able to step up. De Goey mid aged. As to current young replacements from outside the 23, there isn't much. Macrae may or may not make it, Allan has not yet shown whether he may make it one day. Reef has some doubt on him also. I think we need to target hard young mids (inside mostly) in the coming drafts / trading, and we need to sign that 213 cm basketballer who nominated us earlier this year (Condon?) and start developing him in the ruck.

The other positive is that we will have a lot of salary coming off the books after 2 years, and so we could pick the best FAs you'd expect.

Bloody hell. Talk about the glass half empty view. Why will Checkers go down quickly? Elliott is still playing the best footy of his career and his body has never been in better shape. Mcstay will play another 4 years with us. DeGoey is dead set in his prime. Ed Allan is a kid with great weapons and we have every reason to believe he will be a player. Reef has enormous upside with his size, pace and goal scoring ability. Why are there doubts on Reef? Cox could ruck for another 3 years if he maintains the rage and desire.

And Murphy will go early due to concussion issues.

Lord, I'd hate to read your comments if we were coming off another GF loss.

 

[domus]

We will win another two with this list.

This is a more realistic view (albeit on the optimistic side of things) than the crap some have been spewing in the wake of our premiership win.

 

[Maggie5]

Yep

GWS are my flag tip for next year. Reckon they'll be unstoppable

We need to get the succession plan going asap for 2024. Kreuger, Allan, Macrae, McInnes and Dean all need to be making their way into the side.

I agree, great list and now with a much better coach.

I was so nervous playing them in the finals.

 

[Nicco_jj]

This is a more realistic view (albeit on the optimistic side of things) than the crap some have been spewing in the wake of our premiership win.

We definitely have at least one more year of flag tilt with this exact list. But replenishing on the go is something Geelong did well and kept them contending for a long time. The reality is no team has won more than 3 in a row since the 20s. So to figure out how to be in contention for >3 years will require a stack of skill and manoeuvring.

That being said, when we won in 2010 it looked like we could have had a dynasty with our list age profile. We know how that ended. Hawks had a dynasty with an ageing list Geelong have continued to contend with an ageing list, and without bottoming out.

From the interview SEN did with Craig Kelly it sounds like they're well aware that the draft is going to be compromised with priority picks and Tassie in the coming 5 years, so I reckon they'll invest heavily in Moneyball selections like has been done this year, and that hopefully will replenish on the fly.


I can definitely see FAs wanting to come and play under Fly at the Pies, which is a big plus.


Definitely not time for glass half full talk. We are premiers, but the club, coaches, management, leadership all appear wisely set on setting us up beyond 2023! Having Fly and Leppa there - who know what it is like to contend 4 years in a row - is a big plus!

 

[domus]

I'll be really disappointed if Adams takes off. It seems a little sooky to me. He could so easily have been a premiership player had his body not failed him yet again. Would it matter if that was won as a high half forward/midfielder rather than a pure mid?

 

[Jelly Bean]

This is a more realistic view (albeit on the optimistic side of things) than the crap some have been spewing in the wake of our premiership win.

Haha, take it easy domus, it is okay for people to have different opinions to you.

What does '2 more with this list' mean? It is unlikely we will win the next two in my view, which means 'this list' must not need to include Pendles, Sidebottom, Howe, Mitchell, Adams and Cox (who probably don't have 3 more years in them each), who knows about WHE, Mihocek, Elliott. Do they ALL have three more years in them? I think it unlikely all do, so it is looking even less like 'this list'. And that is just retirement threats.

 

[Jelly Bean]

Bloody hell. Talk about the glass half empty view. Why will Checkers go down quickly? Elliott is still playing the best footy of his career and his body has never been in better shape. Mcstay will play another 4 years with us. DeGoey is dead set in his prime. Ed Allan is a kid with great weapons and we have every reason to believe he will be a player. Reef has enormous upside with his size, pace and goal scoring ability. Why are there doubts on Reef? Cox could ruck for another 3 years if he maintains the rage and desire.

And Murphy will go early due to concussion issues.

Lord, I'd hate to read your comments if we were coming off another GF loss.

I don't think it's unreasonable to be pointing out that our midfield is on the very upper edge of the ideal age profile, and that it needs to be an area of genuine recruiting focus.

And my comments wouldn't be changing if we lost - it wouldn't change our age profile

 

[Kreme Pie]

In 3 years JDG, Bruzzy and Darcy will be 30. D.Cameron and MStay will be 31. JFN will be 29.

You would have to assume within good reason Pendles, Mitchell, Sidey, WHE, Elliott, Checkers, Adams, Cox, and Howe would have all retired by then. This is a seismic amount of quality about to drop off over next 3 years, and will have to be scrupulously managed and replaced by the list managers/recruiters.

In 3 years Crisp will be breaking/setting the consecutive games record.
Ginni, IQ, Beau, Naicos, Jaicos, Bobby, Lipinksi, McRae, AJ, Reef, Harrison, Ryan, Allan, will all be in their prime.

I believe we can go back to back, if all the stars align. But after that, I think a list reset is inevitable.

 

[DopeMaster]

In 3 years JDG, Bruzzy and Darcy will be 30. D.Cameron and MStay will be 31. JFN will be 29.

You would have to assume within good reason Pendles, Mitchell, Sidey, WHE, Elliott, Checkers, Adams, Cox, and Howe would have all retired by then. This is a seismic amount of quality about to drop off over next 3 years, and will have to be scrupulously managed and replaced by the list managers/recruiters.

In 3 years Crisp will be breaking/setting the consecutive games record.
Ginni, IQ, Beau, Naicos, Jaicos, Bobby, Lipinksi, McRae, AJ, Reef, Harrison, Ryan, Allan, will all be in their prime.

I believe we can go back to back, if all the stars align. But after that, I think a list reset is inevitable.

Depends on if we can squeeze 1,2 or 3 more years out of Pendles/Sidey.

The way Pendles is going id pencil him in for another 2, maybe longer.

So rather than next year being our final shot at a flag before a reset I reckon we’ve got 2 years strongly challenging in us.

 

[Kreme Pie]

Depends on if we can squeeze 1,2 or 3 more years out of Pendles/Sidey.

The way Pendles is going id pencil him in for another 2, maybe longer.

So rather than next year being our final shot at a flag before a reset I reckon we’ve got 2 years strongly challenging in us.

I just can’t see it with those two legends.
I hope I’m wrong though.

 

[DopeMaster]

I just can’t see it with those two legends.
I hope I’m wrong though.

Let’s hope you are!

I see Sidey perhaps retiring end of next year. Pendles on the other hand…

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

We probably would have - it is Thomas that we wouldn't have had. We'd have still had pick 4 in the draft.

There’s a lot of tactics involved on draft day though . If we only had one top five pick in 2005 they might have gone for Thomas rather than Pendles and hoped he slid. That said, Daisy was our best player in the 2010 final series

 

[Ugene41]

Let’s hope you are!

I see Sidey perhaps retiring end of next year. Pendles on the other hand…

Sidey will only be 33 next year. With his durability, fitness and game style, he can easily play till 34/35.

We've seen how important onfield leadership was to our premiership this year. Unlike previous eras, we should be looking to extend the age of our veterans as much as possible rather than trying to retire them off early. With longer seasons now, we should look at managing games played and rotate to make sure our young guys still have opportunities.

 

[AppleMagnets]

I wouldn’t be too quick for a reset, a mini rebuild? Most likely, just depends on FA, Draft,Mature age top ups. Most successful clubs do that

Daicos/DeGoey will be in their primes and are genuine A+ players.

Look I think Howe and Elliott are most questionable

Crisp/Pendles/Sidebuts do have games and physical profiles that ages very gracefully imo.

One genuine KPF and we can certainly contend for the next 2 years.

I’m looking at looking at the untapped potential of Johnson and Hill, I certainly think both have the capacity to churn out 30+ goal seasons. Great age on both and ready to go