Preview QF2 Geelong v Port Adelaide Thursday Sept 5 2024 @ AO 7:40 pm

[CHAWKTS]

Port is a massively emotional team. They have loads of talent, but not much of a system, it's all reliant on their confidence and if things start going against them, they drop their bundle.

We saw that when they got belted by the Lions at Adelaide Oval - the Lions kicked 13 goals to Port's 3 in quarters 2 & 3. Butters still had 35 and 8 clearances, but it wasn't enough. Brisbane lost the hitouts but belted them in clearances and contested possessions. A few weeks later Gold Coast did the same. Wines very quiet in both of those games.

I think this might be the key which is funny given he is the “4th wheel”. He killed us last time.

In some ways I am glad it is at AO as it gives us a chance to get off to a good start (which we have been pretty good at) and not only quieter the crowd but get that “nervous energy” going…

When I look on paper I get very nervous about how on earth we close down the 4 MF. I don’t see a match up. Maybe Atkins on JHF given he plays forward a lot and potentially Bowes could run with Butters or Rozee? But then we have Wines who is back to best form…

And of course our structure doesn’t really lend itself to shut down roles too much given we will want Danger, Stewart and Bruhn to be in CBA the most - none of them will go with other players - but maybe they are good enough to mitigate clearances?

Overall I feel good based on your notion of playing an emotional team that is breakable…but I just can’t see how we hold that MF out for 120 minutes - and they only need 30m to put scoreboard pressure on

 

[CHAWKTS]

Horne-Francis rotates between midfield/forward so occasionally could he be assigned to Dangerfield.

I'd absolutely love that particular match-up if that was the case. JHF has a propensity to lose his temper when he gets beaten and the last bloke you want him on is someone like Dangerfield who only knows one way.

Does Atkins get him when he plays forward? Could even follow him into centre bounces?

I understand the Mullin logic but it would I think not leave enough spots for Bruhn/Atkins/Bowes/Holmes in terms of MF impact - so I can’t squeeze him in unless he gets picked ahead of Atkins which I can’t see? So to me this is time for shut down Atkins?

I think Stewart will play much more “proper” MF this week - unless they have huge confidence that he can break the tag when he drops back…

 

[Vdubs]

Port is a massively emotional team. They have loads of talent, but not much of a system, it's all reliant on their confidence and if things start going against them, they drop their bundle.

We saw that when they got belted by the Lions at Adelaide Oval - the Lions kicked 13 goals to Port's 3 in quarters 2 & 3. Butters still had 35 and 8 clearances, but it wasn't enough. Brisbane lost the hitouts but belted them in clearances and contested possessions. A few weeks later Gold Coast did the same. Wines very quiet in both of those games.

But they recovered to beat Swans by a truckload, and have been the best performed of the top 4 teams. They are the team to beat for us next Thursday, but also in the whole finals series. IF they beat us, and they are easy favourites, they should win it this year. Likewise, if we win, I could see us going very deep in September

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I'd consider it. But the problem is if we pick someone purely to negate someone else and it doesn't work (which there's a fair chance of happening because JHF is a gun), we're left with a player in our side who is of no use to us. Maybe Mullin has some additional flexibility of being able to switch onto Rioli if he fails to stop JHF. But I think we just let Danger go head to head with him in the midfield and Zuthrie or Stewart when he goes forward.

I'm relatively bullish on Mullin long term, but after watching him against St Kilda, I don't really want him in our side this finals series.

Mullin did his job against St Kilda, followed Hill all night and kept him to 10 touches.

There's been games where Mullin hasn't looked up to it, but the Saints game wasn't one of them. He held up his side of the bargain.

Now, he hardly gave us anything outside of that, but that's the question that the MC will be asking.

Do we tag, and say we're basically playing a man down here - but at least the opposition are too? Or do we back in our system?

There's no right or wrong answer, and it comes down to the opponent and approach we're taking.

Point is though, if we lose in the exact same fashion as the St Kilda game, and Mullin does the exact same thing (keeps JHF to 10-15 possessions) then he's more than done his part.

Like the Saints game, if we still manage to lose from there it's due to a breakdown in other areas.

 

[BORIS332]

I think you're cherry picking the bad stats and also ignoring positional changes and roles played in each game. Bowes only had 14 against Sydney but kicked 2.1

This year being a good or bad side depends on the week you play.

If we base it purely on disposals against sides that were in the top 8 or finished top 8 - Bowes played well against Bulldogs 23 2 goals, Lions 21 1 goal, Demons 20(when they were 4th), Gold Coast 21(when they were 8th), Essendon 26 and 1 goal(when they were 4th), Hawthorn 24, Collingwood 24 and 1 goal (reigning premier).

If you look at Atkins across the season, he's been pretty consistent, he was also sub in the first Carlton game.

Bruhn has battled with injury and getting a good run at it. But his stats against teams that finished in the 8 are 27 against the Hawks, 21 and 1 goal against GWS, 21 against the Lions, 18 against the dogs, 19 against Carlton and 13 against Sydney other than Sydney.

I'd prefer them to be getting 30 disposals but that's not battling and it's pretty typical for our midfield spread.

Taking the season average is the exact opposite of cherry picking. Of Bowes games you ironically cherry picked, only 3/7 finished in the top 8, which is my point. Re Atkins, I had already removed his sub-affected games. And Bruhn has been consistent but is still averaging only 19 disposals across the board.

Going back to the original point, which was essentially "Bowes, Atkins and Bruhn have now hit their straps because they beat up on WCE" - no, that is a below average midfield trio that will get beaten up come finals.

 

[BORIS332]

But they recovered to beat Swans by a truckload, and have been the best performed of the top 4 teams. They are the team to beat for us next Thursday, but also in the whole finals series. IF they beat us, and they are easy favourites, they should win it this year. Likewise, if we win, I could see us going very deep in September

Anyone watching that Port v Swans game would have a hard time taking any stock out of it. Sydney were pathetic.

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

Taking the season average is the exact opposite of cherry picking. Of Bowes games you ironically cherry picked, only 3/7 finished in the top 8, which is my point. Re Atkins, I had already removed his sub-affected games. And Bruhn has been consistent but is still averaging only 19 disposals across the board.

Going back to the original point, which was essentially "Bowes, Atkins and Bruhn have now hit their straps because they beat up on WCE" - no, that is a below average midfield trio that will get beaten up come finals.

I used ‘cherry pick’ because that’s the term you used.

My point is that in an even year, I think it’s arbitrary analysis to average out possessions for games played against the top 8 only. I ‘cherry picked’ those games because at the the time some of those teams were ‘contenders’ and it showed (according to your logic) that he had decent games against ‘contenders’

It’s all academic anyway because average possession doesn’t show actual impact on the game.

I do agree that form against West Coast doesn’t prove anything. However, they do still have a very good midfield.

 

[My Tilly]

Does Atkins get him when he plays forward? Could even follow him into centre bounces?

I understand the Mullin logic but it would I think not leave enough spots for Bruhn/Atkins/Bowes/Holmes in terms of MF impact - so I can’t squeeze him in unless he gets picked ahead of Atkins which I can’t see? So to me this is time for shut down Atkins?

I think Stewart will play much more “proper” MF this week - unless they have huge confidence that he can break the tag when he drops back…

Yeh good points. Your guess is as good as mine.
The only concern is perhaps the lack of leg speed?
JHF is a powerful burst runner and Atkins may be forced into giving away unnecessary frees.

Blicavs could not hang with him either. Mullin had Hill done for pace a couple weeks ago but I do recall JHF destroying him earlier in the year.
Perhaps Mullin has learnt a bit more about the role since then?

 

[sauron256]

Anyone watching that Port v Swans game would have a hard time taking any stock out of it. Sydney were pathetic.

This season is the strangest in my memory. The minor premiers and (current) premiership favourites managed to lose a game by 100+ points and also were beaten by the wooden spooners.

Certainly plenty of twists and turns to come over the finals series.

 

[moond0g]

Mullin did his job against St Kilda, followed Hill all night and kept him to 10 touches.

There's been games where Mullin hasn't looked up to it, but the Saints game wasn't one of them. He held up his side of the bargain.

Now, he hardly gave us anything outside of that, but that's the question that the MC will be asking.

Do we tag, and say we're basically playing a man down here - but at least the opposition are too? Or do we back in our system?

There's no right or wrong answer, and it comes down to the opponent and approach we're taking.

Point is though, if we lose in the exact same fashion as the St Kilda game, and Mullin does the exact same thing (keeps JHF to 10-15 possessions) then he's more than done his part.

Like the Saints game, if we still manage to lose from there it's due to a breakdown in other areas.

We can agree to disagree. Like I said, I rate Mullin long term, but I don't think Brad Hill is a good enough player that you get a pass mark just for stopping him. Hill has only got >14 touches once in the past 5 games as it is, and I don't think he's currently in St Kilda's best half dozen players. There's no point being a stopper unless the player you're stopping is in the oppos best 2-3 players.

If he can do that against port and keep JHF to 10-15 touches (and <2 goals, let's say), then absolutely he would have done his job. But again that's a significant step up in difficulty. And you risk playing someone who offers nothing either offensively or defensively if he fails. So it's probably not a risk I'd be taking.

 

[Phill Hendo]

Looking at Port changes I'd be guessing Marshall and Dixon in and Visentini and Farrell (Inj) out. Obviously there might be more changes but these look like the minimum.

The loss of Houston and now Farrell is a bad blow for them as they both provide drive out of the back half. Dixon is just going but still can take a mark and will ruck in their forward area. Marshall is a useful inclusion up forward.

They need to replace the run out of the back. With 2 key forwards coming in you would expect Sav to go back or even be left out. After they made such a big commitment to Sav I'm guessing he says in. I would say this suits Geelong and does not help with their running.

To create defensive run, Byrne-Jones could go back to the defensive half but this robs them of a mobile small up front, a roll he has been playing well. Maybe Francis Evans comes in to replace him forward.

For the Cats as many have noted, Willie Rioli

15

Willie Rioli

Age

29

Ht

175cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.8

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

11.0

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.6

3star

needs to be well defended. I think this means Jed Bews

24

Jed Bews

Age

30

Ht

186cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

6.1

2star

HB

4.8

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

178.2

3star

D

9.5

2star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.0

1star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

205.8

3star

D

8.8

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.2

5star

starts. I also have SDK coming in and starting back, probably on Dixon. Rhys starts in the middle. He is out best Ruck option. So I have brought 2 into the starting 22. The question is who goes out. Of the options I would choose Duncan as sub and Tuohy as the unlucky one. I expect to change my mind on this multiple times over the next 9 days.

Farrell and Housten are both serious outs for them as is Powel-Pepper. I think this might see us into a MCG Prelim.

 

[BORIS332]

Yeh good points. Your guess is as good as mine.
The only concern is perhaps the lack of leg speed?
JHF is a powerful burst runner and Atkins may be forced into giving away unnecessary frees.

Blicavs could not hang with him either. Mullin had Hill done for pace a couple weeks ago but I do recall JHF destroying him earlier in the year.
Perhaps Mullin has learnt a bit more about the role since then?

Atkins was absolutely gassed chasing Nick Daicos around. JHF isn't as much of a workhorse, but he'll still run Atkins off his feet.

 

[BORIS332]

Mullin did his job against St Kilda, followed Hill all night and kept him to 10 touches.

There's been games where Mullin hasn't looked up to it, but the Saints game wasn't one of them. He held up his side of the bargain.

Now, he hardly gave us anything outside of that, but that's the question that the MC will be asking.

Do we tag, and say we're basically playing a man down here - but at least the opposition are too? Or do we back in our system?

There's no right or wrong answer, and it comes down to the opponent and approach we're taking.

Point is though, if we lose in the exact same fashion as the St Kilda game, and Mullin does the exact same thing (keeps JHF to 10-15 possessions) then he's more than done his part.

Like the Saints game, if we still manage to lose from there it's due to a breakdown in other areas.

With the bolded point, Mullin will be taking the 23rd player's spot, someone like Bews. Whereas he'll be negating Port's best player. So while we may be a player down, it will be our 23rd player, while Port's #1 player will be negated.

 

[BORIS332]

Yeh good points. Your guess is as good as mine.
The only concern is perhaps the lack of leg speed?
JHF is a powerful burst runner and Atkins may be forced into giving away unnecessary frees.

Blicavs could not hang with him either. Mullin had Hill done for pace a couple weeks ago but I do recall JHF destroying him earlier in the year.
Perhaps Mullin has learnt a bit more about the role since then?

When did JHF destroy Mullin? JHF was taking over the game before Mullin went to him and completely clamped him.

 

[My Tilly]

Atkins was absolutely gassed chasing Nick Daicos around. JHF isn't as much of a workhorse, but he'll still run Atkins off his feet.

I agree.
I still feel like we may be best suited tagging Butters.

If JHF gets 28 disposals & 2 goals but Butters is limited to 30 ineffective disposals, could be good enough.

 

[My Tilly]

When did JHF destroy Mullin? JHF was taking over the game before Mullin went to him and completely clamped him.

Did he?
I can't quite remember that game to be honest.
I read on here somewhere he was beaten.

 

[Lana]

When did JHF destroy Mullin? JHF was taking over the game before Mullin went to him and completely clamped him.

Big difference doing that starting in the 3rd, after their opponent comes off a purple patch than from the first bounce.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Big difference doing that starting in the 3rd, after their opponent comes off a purple patch than from the first bounce.

This is the big question. If he's a better than 50% chance of doing that from the opening bounce I think you pick him.

 

[Tony Barber]

Just bought my tickets. Section 130

Driving over to Adelaide from the Bellarine. Pumped!

Just be careful going through Nhill. I swear that town holds up the state finances with the amount of speeding fines handed out there.

They are sneaky buggers where they sit waiting.

 

[BORIS332]

Big difference doing that starting in the 3rd, after their opponent comes off a purple patch than from the first bounce.

"Comes off" a purple patch, or was "taken off" the purple patch by Mullin?

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

Saw us at AO in Gather Round and we were very , very good until fatigue took over from midway through the 3rd - still managed the W despite being stuffed from the Hawks game the week before.
Reckon AO suits us.

This one could very well be won at selection although it's a non negotiable that we have to play 4 quarters of intense pressure.
Stanley has hit form so he plays ruck and SDK comes back into FB is what' I'd aim for.
Whilst I'm tempted to go head to head with the MF I think Mullin will be included as he gives us a lockdown option on JHF/Butters or Rioli - line ball call though.
I love the big fella but Hawk has to miss even if fit as his touch will be rusty and Neale has been quite good , Neale needs to get to aerial contests and compete strongly.
We will be deserved underdogs but a win wouldn't surprise in this very unpredictable 2024 rollercoaster season.
Go you good things

 

[Lana]

This is the big question. If he's a better than 50% chance of doing that from the opening bounce I think you pick him.

Does he only carry around an anti-JHF spray on his utility belt. If he could be trusted to tag blue chip mids he would have been given the role during the H&A season

 

[cats_09]

 

[cats_09]

Also,

 

[Footy Smarts]

Does he only carry around an anti-JHF spray on his utility belt. If he could be trusted to tag blue chip mids he would have been given the role during the H&A season

Tagging an explosive runner like JHF is very different to Bont or Merrett or Neale. Completely different set of skills and they happen to sign very well with what Mullin has.

I'd probably back Atkins but JHF's burst acceleration worries me.