Preview Qualifying Final - Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants

[the hypnotoad]

Pretty excited to see Parker and Papley in the forward line together. Whether due to role or ability, Wicks wasn't a target up forward so he didn't really need to be tightly covered by an opponent.

Despite Parker's lack of speed, if you give him any space at all, he will mark and goal so he needs to be paid attention to. Should give Paps more room to operate.

Think he might be able to have a day out and crumb a few.

papley at his best is crucial, he can be a matchwinner forward or in bursts around the ball
parker's form since his return to seniors has been arguably his best, certainly most dynamic, for some years
getting a fit mcinerney back is another point of difference, he makes us a better side, but i still fear we won't be getting much from him for the rest of the season ... but campbell's metamorphosis and florent getting back to form sort of covers for mcinerney's absence
mills seems cemented in defence, and is such a sure presence
and roberts has turned himself into a bit of an x factor
melican, mccartin, rampe and cunningham are solid, and blakey is a gamebreaker ... blakey, rowbottom and mcinerney are key points of difference outside our headline stars

outside those headliners, we have a genuinely good team, mostly coming back into form ... we have every reason to feel more than just optimistic about this finals series

 

[Bandicoot]

Pretty sure Collingwood and Geelong has that choice

Geelong finished on top in 2022 yet played on Saturday. Brisbane (6th) and Richmond (7th) played Thursday night.

 

[Troystenvic]

My mental health has been shite for a week. Extreme anxiety but I came in here and saw some beautiful positive posts and am starting to feel a tad better after that.

I Reckon we can go all the way and beat Port on the MCG

 

[Bandicoot]

Parker should be icing on the cake nowadays.


Its interesting to look at tackles v Melbourne 2022 final, Mills , Heeney, Parker and Rowbottom alone combined for 39 tackles.

The dogs game this year the whole team had 69. Tackles aren't the only sign of pressure of course. I hope we get more defence pressure tackles from guys other than Rowbottom in this game though.

Don't need to tackle when you have the ball. Let's win the clearances and ground ball gets and we don't need to worry so much about tackle count. It would also help if we could take some inside 50 marks.

 

[Bandicoot]

Adams at stoppages sure, but admittedly a small sample size, Cleary seems to cover the ground more, and more quickly.

For me, if we're looking at Adams, we're looking at a part time mid, part time off a half forward flank. That will be the reality when Heeney returns and we have others returning, which will eat up midfield rotations. I.e. Papley will likely get 10-20% CBs, maybe not first week back, but at some point. Jmac returning probably pushes Gulden and Warner back in a bit more (though Heeney will offset).

We already have Parker as a mid/fwd. I think we'd be better served with someone like Campbell or Cleary playing full time pressure forward, than a low mid % Adams, having to play forward.

I'm still firmly of the opinion that Amartey should be dropped. If he doesn't mark it, which is not very often, he offers nothing from a pressure viewpoint. I suppose with GWS having the three tall defenders we will stay with the status quo.

 

[TheGoatBaron]

Geelong finished on top in 2022 yet played on Saturday. Brisbane (6th) and Richmond (7th) played Thursday night.

So you’re telling me, only Collingwood get advantages when finishing 1st?

 

[Edmund hunt]

So Papley and Mcinerney are pretty much set to play next week unless they hit any snags.

On SM-A515F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bonz]

If we win it makes no difference as we won't be playing the following week anyway.

This

The Saturday gives Papley and co an extra day.

Just got to ensure we win this match.

 

[Bandicoot]

Going to ignore the immature bits.

I'm not sure you can argue we have been better with Parker instead of Wicks, based on results, but I don't think that's the deciding factor there anyway. Different players, different roles.

Papley certainly kicks more goals and cameos in midfield. We're back to only talking about scoreboard pressure again as if it comes out of nowhere, so I don't think there's any point continuing.

If you want to play Jmac at half forward cool, that's not where he usually plays though.

If Wicks was so important to the makeup of the team, why was he playing in the VFL. I felt his last three games in the seniors were very poor hence he was dropped. I don't consider him as an option for the remainder of the year however long that may be.
In relation to McInerney, he has to play against GWS. He's already missed 6 weeks and taking the week off into account that now makes it 7. Even if he is a little rusty in this match, he has to get some GAME time into his legs now. If he doesn't play this game and we win it will then be almost 10 weeks since he last played and I wouldn't want to be bringing him in in a prelim with that long a break. He either plays against GWS or he doesn't play for the remainder of the year.

 

[Bandicoot]

Paps and Jmac are very important, Jmac was in career best form. But I just don't want two underdone guys back in for the same final. We struggled with other underdone players recently and in finals you'll get shown up if they're gassed by the 2nd half or not moving as well as normal.

When are you going to play them then. They will be even more underdone come prelim week. It's now or never for both of them imho.

 

[Bandicoot]

I get the last point and I think that's correct, but I can also see a point in the not too distant future where he gets swamped by the talent we have. Even with his experience, he's on thin-ish ice right now.

If Sheldrick had had a clean run this year, it would have been interesting to see where things ended up.

Let's give Adams his premiership this year and after that I don't care if he plays another game or not.

 

[Bandicoot]

He really is a PoS. Some people say they’d love him at the Swans. I wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole.

People used to say the same thing about Lockett whilst he played for St. Kilda. Funny how your opinions on players change when they become your players.

 

[Bloods86]

When are you going to play them then. They will be even more underdone come prelim week. It's now or never for both of them imho.

I mean, I've said I'd play one of them. If they are over their injuries, then play whoever is fittest. The other comes back in the next match.

Neither would have been doing any running for a while until recently, the extra week or two gives one time to get miles into the legs, albeit not match fitness, but without adding extra risk in a final.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

People used to say the same thing about Lockett whilst he played for St. Kilda. Funny how your opinions on players change when they become your players.

Not mine. I thought Barry Hall was a thug and was glad to see the back of him.

 

[Bandicoot]

This.

The secret is quality clearances. It's how you can get the ball from the inside to the outside in a way that then lets you use it effectively, or at least have another contest. And it's a bit about taking risks once you get the ball from clearance.

Freo have lots of players who are great at getting first hands on the ball and then running around looking for a "safe" option to hot potato it to, often getting it back a short while later. It's one of the reasons why the likes of Serong and Brayshaw rack up such large possession counts. (Note: They are good players, just not as good as their possession counts imply.) I actually think Freo do have the talent and speed on the outside to move the ball aggressively. It's just they (or their coach) have a risk-averse mindset. They'd rather retain possession than move the ball quickly.

When you watch us at full flight we make heaps of mistakes. We might groan at some of them, but it's part of the deal. The equation is just to take those risks enough times that enough pay off. And not get swamped in stodge.

I think getting swamped by other teams was one of the reasons the team started running less, taking fewer risks, being more conservative in the second half of the season. That third quarter, especially, against Collingwood was all stodge. And then watch what happened when they flicked the switch midway through the final quarter - run, handball, run, handball. All high risk stuff prone to go wrong, yet done with enough verve and panache that enough got through.

(Sorry, got carried away a bit with those last two paragraphs. They don't have whole lot to do with the specific topic of clearances.)

Don't get hung up on clearances per se. The important stat to look at is winning the ball post clearance.
What I mean by that is Grundy hits the ball from a ball up and Rowbottom takes clear possession of it and handballs it to Heeney who gets tackled immediately. That's a clearance. However if his handball was to Heeney who was in the clear and then broke away from the stoppage. That's a post clearance win. You'll note that Kingy is referencing this all the time.

 

[Bandicoot]

So you’re telling me, only Collingwood get advantages when finishing 1st?

Apparently. Shouldn't be surprised about that.

 

[Kbroome]

Don't get hung up on clearances per se. The important stat to look at is winning the ball post clearance.
What I mean by that is Grundy hits the ball from a ball up and Rowbottom takes clear possession of it and handballs it to Heeney who gets tackled immediately. That's a clearance. However if his handball was to Heeney who was in the clear and then broke away from the stoppage. That's a post clearance win. You'll note that Kingy is referencing this all the time.

Yep and i think we are generally very good at that as we are the best scoring side (differential wise) from stoppages. Another funny stat that i just found out is that we are the 4th worst side for tackles inside F50 yet we are the best side for fwd half scoring, one of the worst pressure acts side but far and away the best spoiling side. However, when looking at differentials our pressure acts are positive which tends to suggest to me we don't have many contested scenarios compared to others.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

 

[Bandicoot]

I mean, I've said I'd play one of them. If they are over their injuries, then play whoever is fittest. The other comes back in the next match.

Neither would have been doing any running for a while until recently, the extra week or two gives one time to get miles into the legs, albeit not match fitness, but without adding extra risk in a final.

Running and playing in a game, particularly a final is comparing apples to oranges. They are worlds apart.
As I've already said, they have both missed a number of games and they both need to play, not just train. If either of them doesn't play against GWS, you may as well put a line through them for the rest of the year.

 

[Bandicoot]

Not mine. I thought Barry Hall was a thug and was glad to see the back of him.

And you hated him for helping us win the 2005 grand final, no doubt.

 

[mattpolo8]

Yep Papley on The Early Crow when asked if he's playing said yep he's ready, McInerney will also be good to go unless anything happens in the mean time.

We're seriously going to be full strength for the first final. Insane. And reaffirms we have timed this to perfection.

 

[liz]

Yep and i think we are generally very good at that as we are the best scoring side (differential wise) from stoppages. Another funny stat that i just found out is that we are the 4th worst side for tackles inside F50 yet we are the best side for fwd half scoring, one of the worst pressure acts side but far and away the best spoiling side. However, when looking at differentials our pressure acts are positive which tends to suggest to me we don't have many contested scenarios compared to others.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

I have no idea how the pressure index (that they periodically flash up during matches) is computed. But we’re generally described as one of the highest pressure sides, particularly when we’re “on”.

I believe there’s a lot more to pressure than tackling. Indeed, I sometimes wonder if we deliberately hold off tackling at times, in favour of corralling, rushing at opponent. Of course there’s a place for a tackle, but when a player fully commits to one they often take themselves out of any follow up play so you need to know you have team mates around you for the next phase of pressure or to collect the ball if it falls free.

 

[SwansProudly]

My mental health has been shite for a week. Extreme anxiety but I came in here and saw some beautiful positive posts and am starting to feel a tad better after that.

I Reckon we can go all the way and beat Port on the MCG

Take care

 

[Tedeski]

Let's give Adams his premiership this year and after that I don't care if he plays another game or not.

We won’t have to give it to him. He will be critical in helping us win it.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

And you hated him for helping us win the 2005 grand final, no doubt.

I would have far preferred we won it without him.

You seem really determined to put words into my mouth here.

Not sure I can make myself clearer: some things are more important than winning.

 

[Voice of the G]

Yep Papley on The Early Crow when asked if he's playing said yep he's ready, McInerney will also be good to go unless anything happens in the mean time.

We're seriously going to be full strength for the first final. Insane. And reaffirms we have timed this to perfection.

Cleary is the one I feel sorry for,looks like he is going to miss out.