Preview Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans Sunday 21st June 1:10pm @ GABBA

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

????

Kicked 2.3 and had 16 disposals and 8 marks against North last week.

2 goals and 6 contested marks against Freo two weeks before that.

2 goals against GWS the week before that...

Maybe I was being a bit harsh / haven’t paid enough attention in recent games.

From memory some of his goals had been soft ones and he had a bad miss against Freo. I also didn’t take too much stock from the North game as we dominated overall. Did he have a weaker game against St Kilda?

Regardless, it seems I haven’t been giving the big man his due - so thanks for checking my bias with those stats. It might be that I had very high expectations of McLean continuing to improve week on week as per last couple of seasons, and I have been judging him against those lofty expectations rather than his actual performances.

 

[Jewelsbon]

[TRIGGER WARNING] It really wouldn't surprise me if his form in the VFL demanded selection between here and the finals. It's not like McLean or Amartey are absolutely rusted on best 22.

I say this as someone that never watches the VFL unless it's on at the SCG immediately before the seniors and I think that's only happened the one time this year, but if VFL form demanded selection, wouldn't Hamling be first cab off the rank?

Sam’s great. Versatile, athletic, experienced.

Only ever issue with him has been injury.

Obviously not best 22 at this stage, but a fit and mobile Sam Reid waiting in the wings in September is absolutely part of our flag campaign.

I have always been a huge fan of Sam's and have defended him time and time again on this forum over the years. I totally agree that a fit and firing Sam Reid would be like the cherry on top with this team this year, but I have to say that now, I've lost all confidence in his body and feel the risk of playing him and him breaking down is too great.

 

[SM]

A lot of us were skeptical of Mills coming straight back in and not working back through the VFL. If he's not back next week this comes off as very poor management.

 

[Bloods86]

I say this as someone that never watches the VFL unless it's on at the SCG immediately before the seniors and I think that's only happened the one time this year, but if VFL form demanded selection, wouldn't Hamling be first can off the rank?

Felt like last week they were on par for impact for the first time, so you would think that the coaching staff would favour Reid if they had to choose (which it looks like they have already). In Reid's favour is if someone had to replace Grundy, McLean or Amartey, he can also chip in with rucking. If Grundy, you could rotate all 3 KPF/rucks instead of bringing in McAndrew, or it's a straight swap with no impact to ruck backup if it were McLean or Amartey out.

If it's Logan or Amartey, I would still favour Hamling for now given his extended form personally.

 

[Wheresbuddy]

206cm ruck, Henry Smith to debut for Lions this week. Averaging 16.8 possessions and 18.5 hit outs in VFL. Also kicked 15.11 this season.

Lions going tall, suspect they're hoping they can exploit our relatively shorter key defenders. With Lohmann, Cameron and Bailey roving the pack in our D50, we're going to need to cut it at the source.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

i wouldn't be surprised if we win comfortably

Maybe - but there has been no declaration forthcoming.

Unless I pissed it.

Oops ... typo. I meant missed it.

 

[Bloods86]

206cm ruck, Henry Smith to debut for Lions this week. Averaging 16.8 possessions and 18.5 hit outs in VFL. Also kicked 15.11 this season

Interesting. Morris isn't tall but might swap him out, otherwise there's 4 talls potentially to worry about. Might need Fox back there. Unless there's an issue with Daniher, Hipwood or the Big O.

Could also want to work Grundy over.

 

[BarneyBent]

I don’t mind Corey as sub. When in the team he has good at finding space, largely I suspect because he is good at reading the play and because the opposition doesn’t give him enough respect, which should continue if he comes on as sub.

However, he needs to use the ball better to make an impact. I am not yet convinced he can match the pace of AFL, but would love to be proved wrong against the lions.

Pretty much my take as well. He's got the tools, he just hasn't quite adjusted to the pace in his games to date, been a little rushed and fumbly. More experience, particularly as the sub, could definitely help him take that next step.

Don't think he'll ever be a star like his brother but I reckon he has a chance to develop into an impactful B grader, maybe like a Rhyce Shaw type, but it's all about whether he can adjust to the pace of senior footy.

 

[Bloods86]

I wouldn't be surprised if we copped a bit of a pantsing this week.

Lions are in-form, at home & have a lot to play for.

We, on the other hand, have gone into "resting players mode".

IDK, we looked injury decimated at the start of the year and found a way to start well.

Lions haven't looked amazing since flogging Port who barely gave a yelp.

Would love Horse to just give Campbell the instructions to just do what JMac does, might be the best opportunity he's had. Obviously not quite the same player, but it's an opportunity.

Heeney back in, Parker full-time offsets Rowy. Still a loss obviously.

Haven't had Mills all year, so not really any excuse/reason to drop off with him out.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I have always been a huge fan of Sam's and have defended him time and time again on this forum over the years. I totally agree that a fit and firing Sam Reid would be like the cherry on top with this team this year, but I have to say that now, I've lost all confidence in his body and feel the risk of playing him and him breaking down is too great.

I suspect the plan would be (all else going well) to drop him in for one or two H&A games to get him back up to speed, then keep him on ice till September, where even if he just stays intact for just one game to plug an absence, he might be the difference between us bowing out, and us going all the way.

 

[caesar88]

Maybe I was being a bit harsh / haven’t paid enough attention in recent games.

From memory some of his goals had been soft ones and he had a bad miss against Freo. I also didn’t take too much stock from the North game as we dominated overall. Did he have a weaker game against St Kilda?

Regardless, it seems I haven’t been giving the big man his due - so thanks for checking my bias with those stats. It might be that I had very high expectations of McLean continuing to improve week on week as per last couple of seasons, and I have been judging him against those lofty expectations rather than his actual performances.

I don't think McLean's been consistently great, nor starring by any means (except against Freo where he was very good and deservedly got coaches votes.)

But I don't think the Reid of 2022 was consistently great, either. He's sort of been mythologized in a way, probably because of a number of reasons. But in the second half of 2022, Reid had six goalless games. That was more in a half a season than McLean has had so far in 17 games (he's had 5 goalless games so far, will likely add more, but the point still stands.)

In that time, Reid averaged 1.5 contested marks. So far this year McLean is averaging 1.2 contested marks.

I thought Reid was really solid in the back half of 2022 in our run to the GF, but I also think McLean has been solid this year. So have Amartey & McDonald. All four of them are solid players, nothing more at this stage, so there's always going to be games where they don't fire, and Reid had those games too in 2022. I think if Reid were in the team over McLean or Amartey, there'd be just as many complaints about us playing Reid over two guys who could give us the same output but younger.

 

[TheGoatBaron]

Lions to win because we suck in the first quarters which is usually their strong point

 

[Kbroome]

206cm ruck, Henry Smith to debut for Lions this week. Averaging 16.8 possessions and 18.5 hit outs in VFL. Also kicked 15.11 this season.

Lions going tall, suspect they're hoping they can exploit our relatively shorter key defenders. With Lohmann, Cameron and Bailey roving the pack in our D50, we're going to need to cut it at the source.

I was actually looking at the numbers yesterday and it was obvious that Grundy and Mclean are actually the best ruck duo even though the on paper test would think it would be Darcy and Jackson. Shows how much of an influence Grundy is having that we were arguably the worst or bottom 3 last year and are now best.

 

[SydneyBlood]

Warner Jr into the game day 23 along with Heeney and Cunningham.

Mitchell , Reid and Francis emergencies.

 

[JackHiscoxWasFast]

Co. Warner likely to be sub

 

[JackHiscoxWasFast]

Lions to win because we suck in the first quarters which is usually their strong point

It’s like they’re kicking with a 5 goal breeze given the stats

 

[SydneyBlood]

Co. Warner likely to be sub

Yeah, would have to expect so.

I like fast subs.

 

[caesar88]

I was gonna say Warner Jr. needs to really take his chance here but let's be honest it'll be hard to do that as the likely sub.

 

[Kbroome]

I was gonna say Warner Jr. needs to really take his chance here but let's be honest it'll be hard to do that as the likely sub.

Just give him the vision of Parker last week and he should be good. Right?

 

[Adnico26Parker]

Corey named in the VFL team so yes, the likely sub (barring a late reshuffle)

EDIT: no longer listed in VFL team

 

[caesar88]

Just give him the vision of Parker last week and he should be good. Right?

If it were that easy. A lot easier to be sub when you're an experienced player.

 

[kelpie_X]

The incidence of career ending blood noses is a real worry

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

This is an awesome post.

 

[Wheresbuddy]

Neale is a tough match up. Really strong, clean hands and deceptively quick. Also has a very good tank. He's very good at shaking a tag and I think we're better off just telling his opponent to play their game and force him to defend. Heeney would give him a thing or two to think about as would rotating Chad, Errol or Papley onto him at centre bounces.

 

[kelpie_X]

This is exactly how Fremantle and St Kilda (and Richmond) beat us. They just chipped it around all day and took a million uncontested marks. We couldn't deal with it and were made to look distinctly mediocre. We don't seem to do too well against good possession based play.

Let's hope we've learnt and can add another string to our bow.

 

[The King!]

A lot of us were skeptical of Mills coming straight back in and not working back through the VFL. If he's not back next week this comes off as very poor management.

You should get Longmires phone number he is missing out.