Prediction Queens Birthday Game: Pre-Game Discussion

[Tulip]

Arrogant, useless, grouse shooting toss pots who wouldn't know the difference between a game plan and a share register - hope they choke on cheap chardonnay and crappy stale 2nd rate cheese platters

Correct, my share portfolio didn't perform this autumn. One of many reasons why I won't be at the chalet in 2018.

 

[ottoman]

I don't think Melb is as scary as what we are making out.
After getting smashed by Richmond they have won the following.
Essendon when the dons were in a poor patch
StKilda - big deal
Suns - big deal
Carlton - lol carlton
Adelaide in Melb
Bulldogs - whoopty doo

They also got smashed by Hawthorn and lost to Geelong.
If you look at it they are doing exactly what we have been doing and winning the games they should.

 

[Quicky]

Daicos had 5 tackles to Mayne's 1.

How many pressure acts? Those changes are what I expect to happen not what i'd do. I reckon Bucks will go with the experience.

 

[Scodog10]

What I would do:

In: Howe
Out: Mayne

The feel good story has run its course and time is up for Mayne. I mean seriously 14 possessions, 1 tackle and 0 clearances is rubbish for a guy playing full time midfield.

What will the club do? No idea, but I suspect if Howe gets up it’ll be one of Stephenson, Daicos or Appleby. Of those three it has to be Daicos because the other two are adding more structurally. Again though that’s still be an error because now is an opportune time to get 10-15 games into him instead of Mayne who offers the same output without the skill. Like Phillips late 2016 every game you put into Daicos et al brings them one closer to realising their potential. Look at Appleby who was shaky as the leaning tower of Pisa during an earthquake early, but has now settled well.

Ideally Howe’s role this week is as a defensive winger. Melbourne are a very strong offensive unit that gets a lot of goals out the back so Howe drifting back in support, keeping tabs on Petracca and offering an outlet between the wing and half back is important, IMO. It may look one too many defenders on paper, but in order to restrict them below 80-90 you need to bring that defensive mindset. Maynard reprising his role of rd 23 last year is also in play.

If fit Reid spends some time in the twos because the contest Mihocek provided was next level. He was an absolute wrecking ball which is exactly what our structure needs and what Reid can’t provide us.

FWIW I would be placing Scharenberg on notice after that. A simple “you’re better than that” is all that’s necessary, but it was a step back and a real Tom Langdonesque performance.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

If Reid is available we will have a big problem.
I daresay our forward line will function better with Reid and Mihocek compared to Cox.

Both can find the ball in space or on lead, both are pretty accurate kicks for goal and importantly have penetration in their kicking.

Cox going up in marking contests with one hand constantly, his lack of kicking penetration and his lack of scoreboard impact could hinder us moving forward

If Reid is available he can resume in the VFL.

 

[caloschwaby]

From what I can gather, Melbourne are a lot more equal to us in team ability than many others may think.
Their Wins:
Brisbane
North Melbourne
St. Kilda
Gold Coast
Carlton
Adelaide
Western Bulldogs

Other than North Melbourne and Adelaide (despite them having such a tough time with injuries) all these games are walks in the park.

They've lost to Hawks, Cats, Tigers.

Sounds familiar? Because those are 3 of the teams we've lost to as well.
My point is that Melbourne is in excellent form as they've beaten relatively easy teams over the past few weeks.
The Queens' Birthday match is going to be a lot better of a competition than many others may think it will be.

 

[MarkT2]

Hard to drop ayone after an 11 goal win but Howe has to come back if fit. It's probably a strraight swap for Appleby.

 

[Bugglz]

Howe has to come back in, probably for Mayne.

Mayne has been OK, but he’s probably our weakest link at the moment. I want to see him given a go as an intercepting HBFer in the VFL, he’s got a good set of hands and a decent kick, could be an upgrade on Langdon if he can play that role well.

 

[Quicky]

From what I can gather, Melbourne are a lot more equal to us in team ability than many others may think.
Their Wins:
Brisbane
North Melbourne
St. Kilda
Gold Coast
Carlton
Adelaide
Western Bulldogs

Other than North Melbourne and Adelaide (despite them having such a tough time with injuries) all these games are walks in the park.

They've lost to Hawks, Cats, Tigers.

Sounds familiar? Because those are 3 of the teams we've lost to as well.
My point is that Melbourne is in excellent form as they've beaten relatively easy teams over the past few weeks.
The Queens' Birthday match is going to be a lot better of a competition than many others may think it will be.

Our formlines are very similar. However watching Melbourne against Adelaide their pressure is immense and they are so strong at the clearances. I think both those things will worry us and we need to work through that. It's a big test.

 

[Bored_Pie]

Howe has to come back in, probably for Mayne.

Mayne has been OK, but he’s probably our weakest link at the moment. I want to see him given a go as an intercepting HBFer in the VFL, he’s got a good set of hands and a decent kick, could be an upgrade on Langdon if he can play that role well.

Upgrade on Langdon... jesus christ

 

[foreigner]

Not liking wells tbh
VEL watchers who played well?

Wells normally ups the ante when he has played a few games so should be good for next week. He was good against the dockers without being spectacular. Yes, missed a few marks, but he is needed for Monday

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[JJ14AU]

Wells normally ups the ante when he has played a few games so should be good for next week. He was good against the dockers without being spectacular. Yes, missed a few marks, but he is needed for Monday

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Have pencilled in a strong showing from Wells for QB.

Currently on the assumption for the remainer of this year that he will only lift in the bigger games and continue to glide in others if he thinks everyone else has it handled.

 

[Kirby]

I thought Wells was shithouse to be honest.

 

[partypie]

W

Whos going to Hogan? Lynden i dont think would be anle to keep up.

Scharenberg? Langdon? Howe?

We don't have a natural match up for him - he's either too quick, too strong or both for out taller backs to cover one on one.

We'll have to rely on good pressure on the ball carrier coming into F50 and some team defence with Howe or Langdon going second man up as much as possible when they kick it to Hogan.

Having said all that it's their midfield I'm more worried about - Grundy needs to at least break even with Gawn and our mids need to play both ways or their midfield will carve us up.

The thing that people are overlooking here is they have a lot more firepower then we do, so one of our patented 20-30 minute lapses in intensity will see us down by 5-6 goals minimum (if not more) if that happens next week.

Now for the changes:

Appleby plays the role of dour defender pretty well and I can't see him being dropped.

Nobody else at VFL level has been putting their hand up in recent weeks and that includes Murray who hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire - as much as his dash would be a nice addition off half back he still needs to show a bit of form.

I think the only change will be Howe in for Daicos - Mayne has been performing the role Bucks wants out of him in recent weeks so I can't see him being dropped either, unless Bucks values Wills' as a quantity over quality proposition (and even then he isn't the sort of link man on the wing that we need).

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

In: Howe
Out: Greenwood, Mayne or Langdon

People need to get off Appleby's case. Kid has done very little wrong since debuting.

 

[wicksy]

I don't think Melb is as scary as what we are making out.
After getting smashed by Richmond they have won the following.
Essendon when the dons were in a poor patch
StKilda - big deal
Suns - big deal
Carlton - lol carlton
Adelaide in Melb - Was in Alice Springs
Bulldogs - whoopty doo

They also got smashed by Hawthorn and lost to Geelong.
If you look at it they are doing exactly what we have been doing and winning the games they should.

I couldn't disagree with you more.
Not sure if you've watched their games but their pressure is relentless and they move the ball as good as any.
Our first quarter yesterday was atrocious. If we bring that on Monday, we're down 8 goals at quarter time.

The last 5 games have been won by 36, 39, 69, 109, 91 at an average of 69 points.
The last 5 games they've had a score of 108, 106, 146, 159, 146 at an average of 133.

I think you're underestimating them to be honest.

 

[wicksy]

In: Howe
Out: Greenwood, Mayne or Langdon

People need to get off Appleby's case. Kid has done very little wrong since debuting.

Bit hypocritical when you have Mayne in the out column. Has been very good the last few.

 

[Scodog10]

Bit hypocritical when you have Mayne in the out column. Has been very good the last few.

Very debatable! Of his 6 games this year only one (v Geelong) should be deemed above average for a guy in his role with his experience. He’s a million times better than the 2017 version which he was recruited for, but “very good” is stretching things to the enth degree.

 

[wicksy]

Very debatable! Of his 6 games this year only one (v Geelong) should be deemed above average for a guy in his role with his experience. He’s a million times better than the forward version we recruited him for, but “very good” is stretching things to the enth degree.

He certainly hasn't been the worst and definitely doesn't deserve to be dropped.
Do I think he retains a spot when injured players come back? No... But until then, I see no point in dropping him.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Bit hypocritical when you have Mayne in the out column. Has been very good the last few.

You'd have a point if Maye wasn't playing a role we have better depth in.

Quality small one on one defender isn't exactly a spot we have a wealth of options in. Currently, Apples is actually beating his opponent pretty much every week.

 

[wicksy]

You'd have a point if Maye wasn't playing a role we have better depth in.

Quality small one on one defender isn't exactly a spot we have a wealth of options in. Currently, Apples is actually beating his opponent pretty much every week.

I agree that Apples needs to stay in but as I've also said to Sco, I don't think Mayne deserves to be dropped just yet either.
It all depends who's ready to come back into the team. Maybe when Trav is ready, Mayne goes.

I would hate to see Mayne become the new Blair just because we're paying him so much though... That will piss me off.

 

[Fruit]

Anyone else think Wells played well within in himself. I got the impression he didn’t want to ever go flat out and seemed tentative to go any more than 3/4 pace.

 

[iGNITER]

INS: Howe, Murray
OUTS: Appleby, Mayne

B - Maynard Dunn Sharenberg
HB - Murray Howe Crisp
C - Phillips Pendlebury Sidebottom
HF - Wells Mihochek WHE
F - DeGoey Cox Thomas
R - Grundy Adams Treloar
INT - Greenwood Langdon Stephenson Daicos

 

[Scodog10]

He certainly hasn't been the worst and definitely doesn't deserve to be dropped.
Do I think he retains a spot when injured players come back? No... But until then, I see no point in dropping him.

For the most part I agree he hasn’t been the worst, but I don’t want our club to look at it that way. I want us to take the “we need to be better” approach than the at least he hasn’t been rubbish approach.

Yesterday it was between him and Stephenson for our worst because not only did he have his usual limited influence with crab possessions, but this week he did nothing defensively. Therefore I can’t agree that he definitely doesn’t deserve to be dropped. It would be mighty easy for him to make way for Howe this week releasing Maynard to run with Oliver. TBH it’s definitely the move I’d make.

Personally I think you’ve simply overrated his work in 2018...

 

[CFC2010]

Anyone else think Wells played well within in himself. I got the impression he didn’t want to ever go flat out and seemed tentative to go any more than 3/4 pace.

One passage of play near the boundary required him to fully stretch his hamstring to get to the ball.

Lets just say he didn't fully exert himself.

He was woeful yesterday.