Reasons The Saints Can't Go All The Way

[Adelaide Hawk]

This thread is irrelavent. The Saints can quite easily win the Premiership. But don't write off us yet. We are hungry, will be a bit more fresh and are just as good as the Saints. The ground factor is irrelevent, the fatigue factor won't mean much. It's just their going to have to beat us. And we will be a monstrous challenge.

YOU are hungry? The Saints haven't won a flag for 43 years. Sorry Geelong, bridesmaids again ... IF you get there.

 

[Harvey to Hayes]

So what? 99% of the population want footy to be about being entertained and removing them from the humdrum nature of the rest of their lives. What is your point?



Feel free to make your footy following life sterile and boring. That is your perogative.

Just don't criticise others who want it to be more about escapism and use it as a balance against their everyday work life.

Have to agree. Being a footy fan is inherently tribal, and it would be pretty boring if everyone were completely rational and open-minded...

I'm quite socialistic in that I hate every team other than the Saints equally... But I'm also Orwellian in that I hate some more equally than others...

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

MCG is just another ground. We've won everywhere else, there's no reason why we can't win there. My only worry is that the players might become tired, which is why the first final is huge because the week off will be invaluable.[/quote]

Don't be so sure about that. While certainly beneficial on Grand Final day, IMO it's almost cost Geelong even making it the last 2 years.

2007 smashed North by 106 pts, had a week off, flat against a very good Collingwood, fell over the line by 5 pts.

2008 smacked Saints by around 10 goals, had a week off, game was in the balance against Footscray until late in the last quarter.

I think it's super important to have the week off for the Grand Final, it's just very important to make sure everyone is straight back up and firing after the rest and can get over whoever the challenger may be in the Preliminary Final.

 

[AFaiL]

Yep, I agree. They are red-hot, and there are no real reasons why they can't win.

After all, they have more round 1 draft picks playing than I have had hot dinners....

Err, every team gets a first round draft pick every year.

i would say we have less because we traded some away for watts and brooks in years gone by

nice fail mate

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Err, every team gets a first round draft pick every year.

i would say we have less because we traded some away for watts and brooks in years gone by

nice fail mate

I think Dogbowl was referring to all the picks that came from wooden spoons

It is hard to believe that the makeshift team of players drafted from other teams is this good. I thought that St Kilda would have been beaten by now, and I really expected it to happen last night - coming back from West Coast after playing Geelong the week before is no easy gig. Mind you in 2007 we were all shocked when Port got up and beat Geelong, so anything could happen.

If my team does not win the flag, it would be nice for the Saints to do it - I just can't stomache the though of Milne on the podium Still maybe Big Will can fix him up this week

 

[The Punter]

Thanks for inferring I love boringness and sterility. Judgement calls and opinion on your behalf, of course, and therefore unable to be torn down and criticised.

 

[Sweaty]

I think Dogbowl was referring to all the picks that came from wooden spoons

The only wooden spoon we have had since 1990 was in 2000

We got Kozi and Riewoldt from that, and that is it.

 

[cradle of filth]

There are always lots of reasons why a team wont win the premiership. Wether it be the stadiums they play at, an easy draw, lack of injuries etc etc.

In the end, it doesn't really matter what ground it's played at nor that the side in it had no injuries throughout the year. The best team will win the premiership.

 

[Hinkley29]

Thanks for inferring I love boringness and sterility. Judgement calls and opinion on your behalf, of course, and therefore unable to be torn down and criticised.

As was yours. Judgement calls and opinions are exactly what this site, and ideally footy in general, is all about. Feel free to tear down and criticise my opinions if you wish.

However, I have two questions for you:
- If footy was all about rationality, with no room for sentiment, then would you be a Saints fan?
- Why would someone thinking rationally become a Saints fan?

 

[cradle of filth]

St Kilda has a history indicating that there is good reason to believe that they will drop off in the finals. However, i distinctly remember the same being said about Geelong before they won the premiership in 2007.

St Kilda has won 16 games in a row and in that time they have beaten the obvious competition in Geelong. You'd be kidding yourself to still be thinking that it's all a fluke and that they will get found out. It really makes sense that saints are dominating this year when you consider that nearly all of the players they took with high draft picks between 2000-02 are all between the ages of 24 and 26 now. They are in their prime and whilst I'm not saying it's a dead certainty, you would have to think that a premiership is more of a chance than not.

One massive difference between St Kilda, Geelong and the Bulldogs is that the saints are the only side of the three with a forward line containing tall marking forwards with allot of ability. I would agree with the opinion that Geelong’s midfield is still the best around, but as long as it's not too much better than St Kilda’s (and it isn't) then the difference in quality forwards will make the biggest impact just as it did in the grand final last year.

When watching the saints V cats game a few weeks ago, it was very obvious that Geelong have a hard time kicking goals when the midfield is under sufficient pressure. At one point they were relying on Darren Milburn and Max Rooke to kick their goals. At the other end the saints had Justin Koschitzke and Nick Riewoldt taking marks under pressure and making a contest to bring the ball to ground. That to me was and is the biggest difference between the two sides. So really it’s no surprise that Mark Thompson rates the value of Cameron Mooney as extremely high when it comes to the structure of the team. Mooney is the only above-average key forward that the cats have and he will play a massive role in the finals when the midfield is inevitably being pressured. Now you can argue that Steve Johnson wasn't playing or that Brad Ottens could have been that target etc but that brings me to my next point...

Despite not winning the premiership last year, Geelong has been dominating sides for 3 years now. After a while, you would have to think that being the "team to beat" for such a long period of time would have to eventually take it's toll on the players. I thought it became apparent after the game against St Kilda, that Geelong did not cope well with that pace and it showed when a big number of players (six?) had to be rested the next week. What if the same thing happens in a preliminary final and the players have to go into a grand final unfit and not ready for it? They would probably drop off after half time with a lack of fitness. It’s the same thing that happened to Essendon in 2001 and Brisbane in 2004.

Now, what I have written above is subjective. It may happen and it may not, but overall there are always a whole heap of reasons why a side won’t with the premiership. St Kilda, Geelong and the Bulldogs have many reasons to fall down and you can even look at past premiership sides and talk about reasons why they should have lost and so on and so forth. You only have to look at last years result to know that nothing is a certainty in football.

When it comes to blaming things like venues, well you only have to look at all the interstate sides that have won the premiership to know that whether a game is at the MCG, Ethihad or where ever the hell it might be, it really makes no difference in a final. Injuries and a good draw are an advantage throughout the season without a doubt. But rarely does a premiership side ever have massive injuries during the year so it’s not like the saints are fluking it like never before. As for the draw…well if St Kilda had a difficult draw than you could argue that they might be 14-2 or 13-3 or something like that. But when you win your first 16 games of the year, it’s time to put that excuse to bed.

 

[stfan]

It is hard to believe that the makeshift team of players drafted from other teams is this good.

Interesting comment from a Dogs supporter.

So just how many of your players are from other clubs?

I would have thought a few..

Hudson, Aka, Welsh, Eagleton.....

Not our fault that Lyon and Co have turned out to be amazing traders.

 

[AP Erebus]

St Kilda has a history indicating that there is good reason to believe that they will drop off in the finals. However, i distinctly remember the same being said about Geelong before they won the premiership in 2007.

St Kilda has won 16 games in a row and in that time they have beaten the obvious competition in Geelong. You'd be kidding yourself to still be thinking that it's all a fluke and that they will get found out. It really makes sense that saints are dominating this year when you consider that nearly all of the players they took with high draft picks between 2000-02 are all between the ages of 24 and 26 now. They are in their prime and whilst I'm not saying it's a dead certainty, you would have to think that a premiership is more of a chance than not.

One massive difference between St Kilda, Geelong and the Bulldogs is that the saints are the only side of the three with a forward line containing tall marking forwards with allot of ability. I would agree with the opinion that Geelong’s midfield is still the best around, but as long as it's not too much better than St Kilda’s (and it isn't) then the difference in quality forwards will make the biggest impact just as it did in the grand final last year.

When watching the saints V cats game a few weeks ago, it was very obvious that Geelong have a hard time kicking goals when the midfield is under sufficient pressure. At one point they were relying on Darren Milburn and Max Rooke to kick their goals. At the other end the saints had Justin Koschitzke and Nick Riewoldt taking marks under pressure and making a contest to bring the ball to ground. That to me was and is the biggest difference between the two sides. So really it’s no surprise that Mark Thompson rates the value of Cameron Mooney as extremely high when it comes to the structure of the team. Mooney is the only above-average key forward that the cats have and he will play a massive role in the finals when the midfield is inevitably being pressured. Now you can argue that Steve Johnson wasn't playing or that Brad Ottens could have been that target etc but that brings me to my next point...

Despite not winning the premiership last year, Geelong has been dominating sides for 3 years now. After a while, you would have to think that being the "team to beat" for such a long period of time would have to eventually take it's toll on the players. I thought it became apparent after the game against St Kilda, that Geelong did not cope well with that pace and it showed when a big number of players (six?) had to be rested the next week. What if the same thing happens in a preliminary final and the players have to go into a grand final unfit and not ready for it? They would probably drop off after half time with a lack of fitness. It’s the same thing that happened to Essendon in 2001 and Brisbane in 2004.

Now, what I have written above is subjective. It may happen and it may not, but overall there are always a whole heap of reasons why a side won’t with the premiership. St Kilda, Geelong and the Bulldogs have many reasons to fall down and you can even look at past premiership sides and talk about reasons why they should have lost and so on and so forth. You only have to look at last years result to know that nothing is a certainty in football.

When it comes to blaming things like venues, well you only have to look at all the interstate sides that have won the premiership to know that whether a game is at the MCG, Ethihad or where ever the hell it might be, it really makes no difference in a final. Injuries and a good draw are an advantage throughout the season without a doubt. But rarely does a premiership side ever have massive injuries during the year so it’s not like the saints are fluking it like never before. As for the draw…well if St Kilda had a difficult draw than you could argue that they might be 14-2 or 13-3 or something like that. But when you win your first 16 games of the year, it’s time to put that excuse to bed.

An excellent post.

16-0 is ok, but it's really the manner in which the wins have come that gives me hope about this year.

The only big run of opposition goals that the saints have endured was the Carlton 2nd qtr run which to me speaks of an ability to control the tempo, respond when challenged and to win the game when the game is in the balance.

 

[Bollox]

Its always a natural assumption in footy...no matter how well a team does during the HnA the incumbents are considered better..or somehow more likely to be stronger come finals.

I think there's enough evidence to the contrary. You only need to look at both Geelong and Hawthorns flags over the last two yrs.

its not as tho this Saints team hasnt had the finals experience either...and won their share of them.

Right now there are very few if any reasons why they CANNOT win it...just the usual doubts about any team that wasnt in the top 2-3 last yr. A fair call should read Geelong/Saints EVEN MONEY...maybe Geelong still fractionally favored as the incumbent #1.

No point trying to invent reasons why they CANT win...coz there's probably a lot more reasons at this point why they CAN win.

 

[The Punter]

I barrack for St Kilda because my mother barracks for them. Choosing a club to support is rarely rational, and I never argued this. Perhaps I wasn't being clear enough for you, but if you want me to write 5000 word posts so I can never be misunderstood...

But if you look at this season rationally, and football rationally, you wouldn't be suggesting "culture" and other guff like that as a reason St Kilda cannot win the flag.

 

[HulkHawkins]

They are easily by far the best team i've seen since 1966, just give them the premiership cup now they won't get beaten.

 

[Ricmel]

St Kilda has won 16 games in a row and in that time they have beaten the obvious competition in Geelong. You'd be kidding yourself to still be thinking that it's all a fluke and that they will get found out. It really makes sense that saints are dominating this year when you consider that nearly all of the players they took with high draft picks between 2000-02 are all between the ages of 24 and 26 now. They are in their prime and whilst I'm not saying it's a dead certainty, you would have to think that a premiership is more of a chance than not.

Most sensible post on the thread.

Of course there are reasons why StKilda may not win. It's footy, it's unpredictable and nowadays any team, on it's day can beat any other team. Fact is, only about 5% seperates the top 4, so 5% up or down on the day is all it takes.

All the other crap- stadium size, history etc. is just that....crap.

Despite not winning the premiership last year, Geelong has been dominating sides for 3 years now. After a while, you would have to think that being the "team to beat" for such a long period of time would have to eventually take it's toll on the players. I thought it became apparent after the game against St Kilda, that Geelong did not cope well with that pace and it showed when a big number of players (six?) had to be rested the next week.

As a Saints supporter, I still rate Geelong as the biggest threat. But I do think that the the perception now, as opposed to a month ago is THE SPELL IS BROKEN.

People no longer think of Geelong as unbeatable and I think over the next 60 games they will lose more than 5.

 

[krisholio14]

I'm not going to talk the Saints down.

They have played some of the best footy i've ever seen this year, and no matter how well we, or anyone else is travelling come September, its going to take a bloody good effort to knock them off.

 

[NAUGHT5]

They've lost 3 preliminary finals in 5 years.
Whilst they might be a better team this year they still have that record to defeat.

 

[krisholio14]

Most sensible post on the thread.

Of course there are reasons why StKilda may not win. It's footy, it's unpredictable and nowadays any team, on it's day can beat any other team. Fact is, only about 5% seperates the top 4, so 5% up or down on the day is all it takes.

All the other crap- stadium size, history etc. is just that....crap.



As a Saints supporter, I still rate Geelong as the biggest threat. But I do think that the the perception now, as opposed to a month ago is THE SPELL IS BROKEN.

People no longer think of Geelong as unbeatable and I think over the next 60 games they will lose more than 5.

You're drawing a long bow there. We got rolled in a GF last year, wouldn't you think that would blow the 'spell' to smithereens? Yet we still managed to come out and win our first 13 games.

I also think your assessment of the 5% difference between the top 4 is incorrect.

Outside of St Kilda and Geelong, Hawthorn at their best is the only team outside of those two that comes close. And no, I haven't forgotten Footscray.

 

[Ricmel]

You're drawing a long bow there. We got rolled in a GF last year, wouldn't you think that would blow the 'spell' to smithereens?

No, I think most people thought that was an aberration. And that's why you started teh year as such raging hot faves.

Since the bye, you sense things just have not been going right for Geelong. After 2 and a half years of nothing but good news and happy days coming out of Kardinia Park, there is a perception (I think) that Geelong is not the walk up start they were.

Don't get me wrong, I still think Geelong and Stkilda are the teams most likely.

And to me there is no doubt there is only 5% between the top 4 or 5. You just don't need to be off your game by much and you are gone. No question in my mind if Saints are at 95% and Bullies are at 100% the Bullies will win.

The gap is not that big though I think Geelong supporters have convinced themselves over the last 12 Months that it is.

 

[krisholio14]

No, I think most people thought that was an aberration. And that's why you started teh year as such raging hot faves.

Since the bye, you sense things just have not been going right for Geelong. After 2 and a half years of nothing but good news and happy days coming out of Kardinia Park, there is a perception (I think) that Geelong is not the walk up start they were.

Don't get me wrong, I still think Geelong and Stkilda are the teams most likely.

And to me there is no doubt there is only 5% between the top 4 or 5. You just don't need to be off your game by much and you are gone. No question in my mind if Saints are at 95% and Bullies are at 100% the Bullies will win.

The gap is not that big though I think Geelong supporters have convinced themselves over the last 12 Months that it is.

I certainly don't think I have thought at any stage we are a walk up start, and i'm not sure many of our supporters have either, apart from a few mouthy trolls on here.

However, if the rest of the comp wants to think we're on the downslide after a couple of losses, that's fine with me.

And let me tell you this right now.

If you are at 95% and the Dogs are at 100%, you will still whip them by 8 goals.

The only way Footscray will beat you lot on Saturday night is if you have the proverbial Barry Crocker.

 

[LongBomb]

They've lost 3 preliminary finals in 5 years.
Whilst they might be a better team this year they still have that record to defeat.

Their record at the G will also be of concern.

3 losses from the last 4 games. This includes 2 finals.

 

[Ricmel]

Their record at the G will also be of concern.

3 losses from the last 4 games. This includes 2 finals.

Seriously. Once again you need to look a bit deeper than the grass under your feet.

We lost to Geelong and Hawthorn.

The losses MIGHT have had something to do with playing the premier and a team that had lost 1 game all year don't you think? 13 other teams would have lost those games too.

Or are you suggesting that had the finals been played a Etihad last year the Saints would have won the flag?

No one is arguing we were a great team last year. It's easy to quote stupid stats like this but really, just an ounce more thought would make you see them for what they are.

 

[krisholio14]

Their record at the G will also be of concern.

3 losses from the last 4 games. This includes 2 finals.

Yeah with all due respect I don't think St Kilda's losses in the finals had a hell of a lot to do with where it was played, they would have been flogged by both sides on any ground.

It's a totally different proposition this year though.

 

[Ricmel]

Yeah with all due respect I don't think St Kilda's losses in the finals had a hell of a lot to do with where it was played, they would have been flogged by both sides on any ground.

Exactly.

And to take the point even further, we have won about 2 games at AAMI since 1841 and about half a game at Subiaco since 1915.....yet we won all 4 games at those venues this year!!!!!!!

Why?.....because this year we are a pretty good team...NOT because we suddenly discovered how to play on those grounds.