Richmond drafting - explains a lot

[Love the Drake]

This thread is about evaluating Richmonds drafting. Comparing with other clubs gives a good indication of where they sit in comparison.

Lots of precious Carlton supporters in here.

2014 is a good example. There's been a bit of talk on here about Corey Ellis being picked up at 12. Before they got to that pick that year, SOS had already failed on pick 4, 6 and 7 who after 2 years are no longer at the club.

Facts are, the jury is still out on Ellis. As for picks 4,6,7, one can only see them as failures for SOS.

Ummm. That's one player from Richmond you've mentioned and you've brought up Carlton & SOS..

Any other Richmond players you care to comment on?

Any other teams trading you wish to comment on?

 

[Grockadoc]

Richmond has been an average football team for the best part of 35 years. Is it culture or is it down to poor recruiting? I believe it is a combination of both and have put together their draft/trade history (over the last ten years) to enhance my view. I have rated their players as a win/loss/ok; this is obviously subjective.

Makes for interesting reading and shows why they haven’t won a final in 15 years.


2006
Riewoldt (12) & Edwards (26), Jake King (rookie) - WINS
Connors – OK
Traded in Polak – LOSS
Peterson, Collins, Kingsley, Clingan - LOSS

2007
Cotchin (2) & Rance (18) – WIN
Traded in Jordan McMahon for pick 19 – LOSS
Dean Putt (51), Gourdis, Collard, Silvester, Howat – LOSS

2008
Ty Vickery (8) & Nahas - OK
Traded in Adam Thomson for pick 42 – LOSS
Post, Hislop, Cousins, Browne, Gilligan - LOSS

2009
Martin (3) & Grimes – WIN
Astbury, Griffiths (19) – OK
Dea , Taylor, Webberley, Nason, Hicks, Contin, Roberts, Nicholas Westhoff - LOSS

2010
Houli - WIN
Batchelor – OK
Conca (6), Helbig, Derickx, MacDonald, Jakobi, Miller - LOSS

2011
Brandon Ellis (15) – WIN (does go missing in big games though)
Traded in Ivan Maric for pick 37 - OK (played a couple of good seasons early but hardly played a game in two years)
Traded in Steven Morris – any trade that gets Morris to your club is a LOSS
Elton (26), Arnot, O’Hanlon, Marric, Darrou, Verrier, Turner, Wright – LOSS

2012
Vlaustin (9) - WIN
Troy Chaplin traded in, McIntosh - OK
Chris Knights traded in – LOSS
Aaron Edwards, McBean, McDonaugh, Petterd, Lonergon, Stephensson, Williams – LOSS

2013
Sam Lloyd (66), Miles (rookie) – WIN
Hampson traded in for pick 32 – OK (just)
BenLennon (12), Gordon, Banfield, Thomas – LOSS (*early days re Lennon but has shown near enough for a pick 12)

2014
Menadue (31) , Short (rookie), Lambert (Rookie) - OK
Corey Ellis (pick 12), Taylor Hunt, Drummond, Butler, MacKenzie, Soldo - LOSS (** extremely early days re Lennon but has not shown near enough for a pick 12)

2015
Rioli, Markov & Broad all look like WINS so far
Andrew Moore, Townsend, Yarran (so far) - LOSS

So roughly, over the last 10 years, Richmond has traded in 89 players.

• 15 WINS
  
• 13 OK players
  
• 61 LOSSES

They get 1 in 6 right. No wonder they are in no-man’s land...

If you include the OK players as picks they got right, as lets face it, not every pick is going to be a gem then it is almost 1 in 3. But no lets exclude those overall because it doesn't suit my agenda...

 

[Tiger2709]

There is no doubt Caddy is a little better than average but Richmond really need elite talent to go forward and he certainly is well short of that.
Prestia probably short of A grade midfielder but still a good mid and will help Cotchin out this year. Problem is when Richmond at least rose above 9th level it was usually a common factor of Deledio a star in many of those better wins. He is now gone so you need Prestia to be as good to reduce the loss. This is all looking like creating a team only good enough to rise to 9th!!!!

Richmond have one pick at pick 27 in first 55 picks of current draft.
Tells me Richmond still do not know how ordinary their list currently is, to go so short on resources to generate elite talent straight away.
I think Richmond are 12 months off being total aware how ordinary it is. I think Neil Balme is one guy that won't spin bullshit like current people have. If at end of 2017 Corey Ellis and Lennon not quality players or Yarran not back to playing quality standard football he will not mince words with rest of his football department. Have little doubt he giving them a 12 month grace period before things get real.
They may then work on a true building of list from ground zero like Carlton started on last year.

The constant referrences to 9th are really better kept for the Bay, where some small minds may still find it amusing.
As for this ground zero rebuild of Carlton, stop dreaming, had you been doing that already you wouldnt have had such an old list on the field this year and you would have let the man bun go to Adelaide for picks in the draft.

 

[Rich01]

Ummm. That's one player from Richmond you've mentioned and you've brought up Carlton & SOS..

Any other Richmond players you care to comment on?

Any other teams trading you wish to comment on?

I mentioned Carlton supporters being precious in my post, which is reinforced by your response.

The comparison of GWS fluffing picks 4,6,7 that year before we picked up Ellis puts our performance in the draft that year into context.

 

[Love the Drake]

I mentioned Carlton supporters being precious in my post, which is reinforced by your response.

The comparison of GWS fluffing picks 4,6,7 that year before we picked up Ellis puts our performance in the draft that year into context.

Hey. You are the one on this thread defending the indefensible. Why would Carlton supporters be precious on a thread highlighting Richmonds woeful drafting history? Pot..Kettle...

Again..you have only mentioned one Richmond player in all of your posts. Too scared to delve in to your catastrophic trading history?

Come on. Surely you have views on players traded/drafted in to YOUR club.

 

[Rich01]

Again..you have only mentioned one Richmond player in all of your posts. Too scared to delve in to your catastrophic trading history?

Come on. Surely you have views on players traded/drafted in to YOUR club.

A good exercise.
Let's look at our last four years of first rounders.

Comparing them to the benchmark in list management in GWS:

2012: Vlastuin at 9. Not bad, has been a consistent member of our best 22 but hope he develops a bit more to have stints in the midfield. Can see him playing 150+ games.

Compare that to GWS: 1 - Whitfield. Good player. No brainers pick one, even Greg Miller could get this pick right. Pick 2,3 and 12 busts- at other clubs. Corr at 14 is an unknown at this stage.

2013: Ben Lennon at 12. Been injured but disappointing. One more year in our list to prove himself.

Compare that to GWS: Pick 1 and 14 busts- at other clubs. Josh Kelly looked a no brainer at 2 and is doing well.

2014: Corey Ellis at 14. Been injured and played out of position (half back, why?). Unproven but I think he will be decent given a good run at it.

Compare that to GWS: Pick 4,6,7 busts- all at other clubs.

2015: Daniel Rioli at 15. Looks good. Thought he was too light to play this year but did well and will improve when he puts on weight.

Compare that to GWS: Hopper at 7, Kennedy at 13 and Himmelberg at 16 all look good. Definite improvement over the past three years of drafting, even looking at it this early. Change of staff evident.

Looking at the last four years, I'd be disappointed if Richmond had picks 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 7, 12, 13, 14, 14, 16 and ended up with Whitfield, Corr, Kelly, Hopper, Kennedy and Himmelberg.

In fact it looks like 2015 drafting has saved them somewhat.

Compare that to 9,12,12, 15 for Vlastuin, Lennon, Ellis, Rioli.

Makes Richmonds return in that time look not too bad.

 

[footyfan1978]

The constant referrences to 9th are really better kept for the Bay, where some small minds may still find it amusing.

I do not live in such a Universe.

As for this ground zero rebuild of Carlton, stop dreaming,

There is no ground zero rebuild.

It is simply building a list from the ground zero state.
Many to do not understand the subtle difference. I get that.

If your club has never built a premiership winning team in draft era the the whole idea of re-build of something that was less than premierships is flawed in thinking. I see what we are doing from end of 2015 as actually building our first ever draft created premiership quality list from ground zero and will take a good 5 years or more to achieve given the terrible state of list it was left in by Rogers and Malthouse at end of 2015.

A re-build is something Hawthorn are starting on after a sustained successful era with premierships achieved. Any clubs that not won premierships recently in draft era, thinking they are rebuilding, are therefore not really understanding why they are not winning premierships.

We might try a re-build in a decades time when Cripps and other youngsters we building a list with now are ready to move on after 2 or 3 premierships.

Meanwhile Richmond like the hamster on the wheel can continue to re-build the type of list that has state of equilibrium that gets you to likely to be around 9th, oops Sorry for mentioning that evil number.

Enjoy Prestia getting you rising to such levels after Lids has gone and do not worry about pick 6 in draft that Dan gave up for this re-build of yours.
You still got pick 27 in in the top 50 picks of the draft. It is all good!

 

[Rich01]

I see what we are doing from end of 2015 as actually building our first ever draft created premiership quality list from ground zero and will take a good 5 years or more to achieve given the terrible state of list it was left in by Rogers and Malthouse at end of 2015.

This is so true.
Carlton should be trying building a list to contend well past Boltons 66 game rebuild as their current list is putrid.

5 years to contend is realistic. That's why recruiting guys like Lamb, Sumner, Phillips, Kerridge, Wright, Palmer seem so baffling. These blokes won't be there in five years.

They are also relying on a recruiter who has had a poor record over the past three years with GWS even with ridiculously good picks.

Ominous signs.

 

[footyfan1978]

This is so true.
5 years to contend is realistic. That's why recruiting guys like Lamb, Sumner, Phillips, Kerridge, Wright, Palmer seem so baffling. These blokes won't be there in five years.

Yep, 5 years or more is realistic to build a strong list for long term.

Most of those guys were not recruited with expectation of being there is 5 years time.
If one or two of them are is a bonus but these guys in early 20's and older are simply there to be tried out and support the next couple of years development of the real core ground zero build of list that centred around the likes of Cripps, Docherty, Weitering, Byrne, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni, Cuningham, Plowman, Marchbank, Pickett, etc etc.

If Sumner and Phillips are there is 5 years time I will be more than happy to see we got some cheap long term wins from tertiary support trades to the actual draftees coming in over this period.
I know, this type of list building support stuff would be baffling to Tigers fans more used to expecting your recruiters to not draft well so you trade away early picks like pick 6 for Prestia and hope you get one or two spots further than 9th via trade period. Meanwhile by the time Richmond have their first pick in next months draft we would have added 2 more draftees from top 25 picks in draft to build on to be in a better position in 5 years time whilst Tigers still the hamster in the wheel wondering why they are on the tenth re-build to 9thville realms in five years time

 

[Rich01]

Most of those guys were not recruited with expectation of being there is 5 years time.
If one or two of them are is a bonus but these guys in early 20's and older are simply there to be tried out and support the next couple of years development of the real core ground zero build of list that centred around the likes of Cripps, Docherty, Weitering, Byrne, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni, Cuningham, Plowman, Marchbank, Pickett, etc etc.

If Sumner and Phillips are there is 5 years time I will be more than happy to see we got some cheap long term wins from tertiary support trades to the actual draftees coming in over this period.

So SOS has recruited 6 guys not to be on your list in 5 years time.

In regards to drafting,Weitering was pick one. Even Greg Miller can get pick one right.

Mackay, Curnow and Cunningham have shown nothing to expect they will be consistent performers. Hope they do, but haven't so far. Can't judge them yet. But with SOS recent history for first rounders I wouldn't be holding my breath.

Byrne, Marchbank and Pickett are speculative at this stage.

Dockerty and Plowman look decent. With Weitering, that's 3 out of 12 that we can agree will make it since SOS took over.

Some in this thread say 60% is a good strike rate. Hope these guys develop to get SOS there.

EDIT: Dockerty wasn't a SOS pick.
That makes it 2 out of 11 so far.

 

[footyfan1978]

So SOS has recruited 6 guys not to be on your list in 5 years time.

If that is how you interpret it, your lack of understanding is why you will not understand much about how to work with 40 list spots and build a list for long term at same time.

Good luck with Prestia and Caddy getting you to a 4th Elimination Final to experience soon.
We will continue to build through coming drafts whilst you try to get to another Elimination Final through trade periods with targets like Treloar, Yarran, O'Meara, Prestia and Caddy and get some knock backs along the way of guys like Treloar that not interested in Elimination Final destinies.
Enjoy your one pick at 27 in first 55 picks of draft. It is a recipe for Richmond success.

 

[Rich01]

Good luck with Prestia and Caddy

Pick 6 and 24 for those two are a lot to give for those players.

I would prefer them to the same picks that SOS had when he chose Marchbank and McKenna. Shows how hit and miss drafting is. And how average some recruiters are.

GWS did well moving him on.

 

[footyfan1978]

Pick 6 and 24 for those two are a lot to give for those players.

Exactly, it is the type of trading you might expect from a club with a list already good enough to be a premiership contender and already stocked with lots of talented youth for future they can afford to trade away such early picks and have players come in for immediate impact for present premiership on offer. Problem is it was Richmond trading away those precious picks in top 25 of draft.
Not, GWS, Bulldog or Swans that already are premiership contenders.

Good luck contending for another Richmond Elimination Final. Caddy might help you reach another one with Lids now gone.

 

[Rich01]

Exactly, it is the type of trading you might expect from a club with a list already good enough to be a premiership contender and already stocked with lots of talented youth for future they can afford to trade away such early picks and have players come in for immediate impact for present premiership on offer.

Nah, these guys are proven quantities with 6+ years left.

Guys drafted at the same pick like Marchbank and McKenna may never even make it. I'd prefer Prestia and Caddy to Marchbank and McKenna. How about you?

 

[footyfan1978]

From 2002 to 2009 you actually had 15 attempts at picking best kids in top 25 picks of drafts in that period. You got a strike rate of 1 in 3 being good picks. You had Deledio, Jack Riewoldt, Cotchin, Rance and Dustin Martin from those 15 attempts.


Here is a decent look since 2002 of what you did with your picks from top 25 picks of all those drafts. I think it is fair to judge to end of 2010 now Conca is gone and had enough time to judge his worth.

12 Jay Schulz Richmond Woodville-West Torrens 2002

18 & 32 of 2002 traded away with Jason Torney to Adelaide for pick 12, Kane Johnson, pick 28 & 41

6 & 20 of 2003 traded away to Western Bulldogs for Nathan Brown

21 Alex Gilmour Richmond Tasmania U18 2003

The draft picks bonanza from rock bottom (wooden spoon in 2004)

1 Brett Deledio Richmond Murray U18 2004

4 Richard Tambling Richmond Southern Districts 2004

12 Danny Meyer Richmond Glenelg 2004

16 Adam Pattison Richmond Northern U18 2004

20 Dean Polo Richmond Gippsland U18 2004

8 Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls Richmond East Perth 2005

24 Cleve Hughes Richmond Norwood 2005

8 of 2006 traded away to Fremantle as part of deal that secured Graham Polack and pick 13

13 Jack Riewoldt Richmond Tasmania U18 2006

Over similar period Hawks got Hodge a year earlier than 2002 but also added Roughy and Franklin in later drafts with Birchall, Lewis and Cyril Rioli that are now multiple times premiership players.

Shows how hit and miss drafting is. And how average some recruiters are.

Indeed!!!

 

[footyfan1978]

Nah, these guys are proven quantities with 6+ years left.

Guys drafted at the same pick like Marchbank and McKenna may never even make it. I'd prefer Prestia and Caddy to Marchbank and McKenna. How about you?

I prefer having Marchbank and Pickett myself and pick 5 and 25 to use in coming draft. They will help us more in 5 years time in how we are going than giving up a pick 5 for Prestia and 25 for Caddy thank you very much.
Melbourne can have McKenna, know so little about him.

 

[Rich01]

From 2002 to 2009 you actually had 15 attempts at picking best kids in top 25 picks of drafts in that period.

12 Jay Schulz Richmond Woodville-West Torrens 2002

1 Brett Deledio Richmond Murray U18 2004

4 Richard Tambling Richmond Southern Districts 2004

12 Danny Meyer Richmond Glenelg 2004

16 Adam Pattison Richmond Northern U18 2004

8 Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls Richmond East Perth 2005

2- Trent Cotchin

3-Dustin Martin

13 Jack Riewoldt Richmond Tasmania U18 2006

Perfect. Let's compare this 8 year period of Richmond first rounders to GWS golden years of of 2012-2014. Not fair considering GWS had higher picks and recruiting was more developed but let's give it a go.

12 - Jay Schulz.
1- Deledio
4- Tambling
12- Meyer
16 - Pattison
8- JON
13- Riewoldt.
2 -Cotchin
3-Martin

1,2,3, 4,8,12,12.13,16 in that time.

Deledio, Cotchin, Martin; Schulz, Riewoldt top quality players. 5 out of 9. The others a bust.

GWS - 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 7, 12, 13, 14, 14, 16 and ended up with Whitfield, Corr, Kelly, Hopper, Kennedy and Himmelberg still at the club.

Whitfield and Kelly look like being top shelf at pick 1 and 2. The others let's wait and see, probably too early.

Not a bad comparison for Richmond there.

 

[footyfan1978]

Perfect. Let's compare this 8 year period of Richmond first rounders to GWS golden years of of 2012-2014. probably too early.

Why would I? It makes no sense. It is pointless deflection from Richmond squandering access to early draft picks. Some 2014 draftees barely got their senior career started around the league or had enough pre-seasons under their belt to take seriously as ready to have impacted the league yet.
Too silly mate.
Way too early.
You compare Richmond recruiting to existing clubs and over periods you can be sure to judge.
Start up clubs like GWS we can compare with Gold Coast but too early for both clubs to properly judge fully. It would end up being half speculation at best which I find useless exercise.

Feel free to compare Richmond and Carlton recruiting over the drafting and trading in the 2000 to 2010 period. Makes far more sense and useful exercise and can reach some true understanding of longer term effects of decisions made in past. Both train wrecks and make a telling comparison in how poor decision making can be sliding doors moment to end up on a path that ends with no success in stark contrast to the Hawks had journey of success from same recruiting period. Famously the sliding doors moment of Richmond taking Tambling and Hawks getting Franklin is brought up often by footy pundits. We can actually judge those periods as the players careers are well and truly established or over at AFL level in Tambling's case. Silly speculation of drafts more recent like 2014 is not even worth wasting time on except players out of AFL system that were taken early in drafts.

For example if you look into it properly you will find that a fair comparison can be made of the strike rates at draft picks of Hawks, Carlton and Richmond makes for interesting reading. Those three clubs were in similar spots on ladder in 2001. Carlton and Richmond bottom 3 the next season. So the paths faced were similar.

From 2002 to 2009 as one example you will find Richmond had 15 attempts at picks in draft that were in top 25 picks of that period.

Richmond got a strike rate of 5 from 15 as success. Deledio, Riewoldt Cotchin, Rance and Martin.
Carlton lost 4 picks in top 25 over 2002 and 2003 due to salary cap sanctions as we know.
So Carlton ended up with 11 attempts of top 25 picks over that period.
We had 6 from 11 as success. Walker, Murphy, Kennedy, Gibbs, Kruezer and Yarran.
Hawthorn 6 from 13 as success if we count Schoenmakers as a successful pick along with the more obvious successful picks of Roughy, Franklin, Lewis, Birchall and Rioli.

One thing should be clear from that. Not every draft pick that is early will be a success.
Hawks won 4 premierships recently since then without needing to get every pick a success.
The other thing that should be clear is 5 from 15 is a clear cut failure to nail access to early picks. You need to get at least around half working for you long term to get anywhere or you tread water or going backwards.

Hawks won premierships with Hodge in their team. He was from the 2001 draft.
If you add that earlier draft year for them just to see how a successful core group of players together was built through the draft you get 7 from 16 attempts over 9 drafts at top 25 picks being as success just to be clear how you do not have to get every pick right to have a hope.
They complimented the draft successes of Hodge, Roughy, Buddy, Rioli and others with shrewd drafting of types like Burgoyne, Gunston and Gibson along the journey. It highlights you draft for talent and support it with a few shrewd trades along the way.

Carlton woke up at end of 2015 where we had gone wrong and at least now have a strategy we never had before. Richmond however are still fumbling around in dark not really even knowing the fuse to the lights are broken. It is amusing to see some never learn from past mistakes.
All aboard the Prestia/Caddy train to nowhere. It has that Nathan Brown feel about from last decade.

 

[Love the Drake]

Rich01. You keep fighting the fight but you've got nothing. It's so much better for the soul to just 'let it go'. Particularly when you continue to defend the indefensible. Let's face it; Richmond have been hopeless in identifying talent. The sooner you accept it the better it is for you and your state of mind.

 

[Love the Drake]

A good exercise.
Let's look at our last four years of first rounders.

Comparing them to the benchmark in list management in GWS:

2012: Vlastuin at 9. Not bad, has been a consistent member of our best 22 but hope he develops a bit more to have stints in the midfield. Can see him playing 150+ games.

Compare that to GWS: 1 - Whitfield. Good player. No brainers pick one, even Greg Miller could get this pick right. Pick 2,3 and 12 busts- at other clubs. Corr at 14 is an unknown at this stage.

2013: Ben Lennon at 12. Been injured but disappointing. One more year in our list to prove himself.

Compare that to GWS: Pick 1 and 14 busts- at other clubs. Josh Kelly looked a no brainer at 2 and is doing well.

2014: Corey Ellis at 14. Been injured and played out of position (half back, why?). Unproven but I think he will be decent given a good run at it.

Compare that to GWS: Pick 4,6,7 busts- all at other clubs.

2015: Daniel Rioli at 15. Looks good. Thought he was too light to play this year but did well and will improve when he puts on weight.

Compare that to GWS: Hopper at 7, Kennedy at 13 and Himmelberg at 16 all look good. Definite improvement over the past three years of drafting, even looking at it this early. Change of staff evident.

Looking at the last four years, I'd be disappointed if Richmond had picks 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 7, 12, 13, 14, 14, 16 and ended up with Whitfield, Corr, Kelly, Hopper, Kennedy and Himmelberg.

In fact it looks like 2015 drafting has saved them somewhat.

Compare that to 9,12,12, 15 for Vlastuin, Lennon, Ellis, Rioli.

Makes Richmonds return in that time look not too bad.

Lennon and Ellis (Corey) are no good. Don't make excuses; they are flops.

That leaves you with Vlaustin (average) and Rioli (too early to call, but looks like he could be a good AFL player). Two out of 20 is bad..really bad

 

[Jeremias]

I am willing to give Nankervis and Caddy a chance.

As you should be - clearly both were brought into the club for a reason and both should play plenty of senior football in 2017.

I'm not sure how claiming both of them are average footballers goes against that.

Nankervis may not be a star at 22 years old but we are hoping he improves over his career. Does he have that potential? I think so.

Of course, and I've never said anything to the contrary.

Right now Nankervis is an average footballer, at best. Whether he improves on that at Richmond remains to be seen.

Before a conclusion is made about Caddy, we need to see how he slots into the team dynamics at Richmond.

The guy is 24 with 6 years and nearly 95 games of senior football under his belt. I'd say that's plenty of time to evaluate his quality at AFL level.

You can live in hope that he elevates his game significantly at Richmond - and he may well do that - but you'll have to excuse my skepticism based on what he's produced to date.

 

[Blue1980]

This thread is about evaluating Richmonds drafting. Comparing with other clubs gives a good indication of where they sit in comparison.

Lots of precious Carlton supporters in here.

2014 is a good example. There's been a bit of talk on here about Corey Ellis being picked up at 12. Before they got to that pick that year, SOS had already failed on pick 4, 6 and 7 who after 2 years are no longer at the club.

Facts are, the jury is still out on Ellis. As for picks 4,6,7, one can only see them as failures for SOS.

You make our like they were all delisted duds. If they were at our clubs there is no way known they would of been traded out.

Part of the problem is they can't get games there due to them being so successful drafting/trading early on, so they ones they got 2 years ago can't get a look in

If the jury is still out on Corey Ellis and we shouldn't write him off, why are you writing off the GWS guys? They are still on AFL lists, and have the same chance as Ellis to prove their worth. GWS didn't actually push any of them out.

 

[Vamos Juddamente]

Tigers are a bit stuck because the coach and the list manager know if they don't improve next year they will be moved on. The only way that real change will happen will be with a new coach & list manager.

 

[Great8]

Add Chris Yarran to their list of bad recruiting

 

[Funk]

Add Chris Yarran to their list of bad recruiting

Gawn, Gawn, Gawn!!!!!

SOS did very well getting pick 19 for him.