Preview Rnd 3 - Carlton v Gold Coast - 7.25PM Saturday 9th April @ Metricon

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Round 3, 2016: Carlton Vs Gold Coast - 7:25PM Saturday 9th April @ Metricon Stadium

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Match Information

Gold Coast Suns Vs Carlton Blues

Location: Metricon Stadium, Carrara, Queensland

Time: 19:25 AEST, April 9, 2016.

TV Guide Melbourne: Channel 7 Live. Also live on Fox Sports.


Last Five (all five)

Round 13, 2015: Carlton d. Gold Coast 103-69 @ Etihad Stadium (3. T. Bell 2. M. Murphy 1. M. Rischitelli)

Round 20, 2014: Carlton d. Gold Coast 97-58 @ Etihad Stadium (3. C. Judd 2. J. Waite 1. T. Bell)

Round 18, 2013: Carlton d. Gold Coast 120-77 @ Metricon Stadium (3. M. Kreuzer 2. L. Henderson 1. G. Ablett)

Round 22, 2012: Gold Coast d. Carlton 98-86 @ Metricon Stadium (3. T. Lynch 2. H. Scotland 1. G. Ablett)

Round 2, 2011: Carlton d. Gold Coast 171-52 @ GABBA (3. M. Murphy 2. B. Gibbs 1. R. Warnock)

2016 Night Matches: Gold Coast 0 (0-0), Carlton 1 (0-1)

2016 Gold Coast home record: 1-0
2016 Carlton away record: 0-1

2016 Season So Far

Gold Coast Suns

Round One: Gold Coast 17.19.121 d. Essendon 9.6.60 - Metricon Stadium (T)

The Suns played *FC in the first round of the home and away season at Metricon Stadium. The result was as expected with the SUns walking away comfortable 61 point winners. Given that it was the first game for *FC with 'The Replacements' I was unable to glean too much from the game from a GC perspective given the vast difference in talent level between the two teams. I thought that the Scum put in a creditable performance commensurate to the ability of their list and although they were soundly beaten they worked hard all day which we have come to expect from a Worsfold coached side and with a team full of new players seeking to impress and retain their position in a side that I anticipate will be turned over week to week.

The legendary Gary Ablett at times appeared not to have missed a beat over the past injury riddled years as he tries to reclaim his position as one of the league's best players. He finished with 34 possessions, 7 tackles and 7 inside fifties. However, it was the performance of Aaron Hall that stole the show for mine as he accumulated 36 disposals, kicked a pair of goals and had 9 inside 50's.

Unfortunately, Matt Rosa (who had a great game with 32 disposals and 9 marks) and Touk Miller (a solid performer) were both injured and forced omissions from the Suns round two side.

Something of particular note in this match is the fact that *FC jumped on the Suns very quickly kicking the opening goal in every quarter with three of them coming in the first couple of minutes of three of the four quarters. This will be an area that Carlton would really like to exploit as getting any sort of jump could prove pivotal for an upset Carlton victory.

Best players: A. Hall, G. Ablett, M. Rosa, A. Sexton, T. Lynch

Round Two: Gold Coast 19.12.126 d. Fremantle 14.16.100 – Domain Stadium (T)

Round two saw the Gold Coast Suns travel west to take on the formidable Fremantle Dockers on the back of a bitterly disappointing first round loss to the Western Bulldogs in Melbourne. However, instead of the Dockers bouncing back with a win it was the Gold Coast Suns recording their first ever victory over the Dockers.

Gold Coast's energetic and high speed game style gave the older Dockers fits all night. The Dockers powerless to stop the Gold Coast run. Conversely, the Fremantle Dockers are not the same team that they were a year ago. This is because they've lost important contributors to their club culture in McPharlin and Duffield and Ross Lyon has attempted to modernize his game plan into a more attacking set up. However, I question whether the Dockers have the players with the right skill set to make such a dramatic change to their game plan. Given that time is running out on Pavlich's career I wonder how long it will take before they return to their more successful style.

But for the Suns it was Aaron Hall, Tom Lynch, Alex Sexton, Dion Prestia and Jack Martin that were the stars for the Suns on the night. It's more than a little scary that GAJ never got out of second gear throughout most of the night and was still a damaging player.

Carlton Blues

Round One: Carlton 12.11.83 lost to Richmond 14.8.92 - MCG (N)

Our beloved went into their round one game against with a red hot crack at an undermanned Richmond. Although we ended up with a lower score than our rivals the game was largely considered a small victory for the Blues. We enjoyed solid debuts by number one draft pick Jacob Weitering and veteran Adelaide Crows acquisitions Matthew Wright (3 goals) and Sam Kerridge (24 disposals) with two of the former GWS boys Andrew Phillips (21 hit outs) and Jed Lamb (a goal) demonstrating future potential.

The troubling aspect for the Blues in this game were several key runs that we allowed Richmond to go on with these runs occurring in the first, third and fourth quarters. If not for these lapses the Blues very well may have caused an upset victory. Still the team showed much improvement from 2015 and showed every sign you would hope for from a team undergoing a 'reset.'

Murphy who had an interrupted preseason had a very good game until he ran out of gas as expecting. Reigning best and fairest winner Patrick Cripps pushed him for best Blue on the night. A positive sign came in Bryce Gibbs lifting his game and showing that his poor to average preseason form was an aberration rather than something to worry about.

As coach Brendon Bolton claimed in his coach's address to the fans in the week after the game it was the first sign of a more united Carlton. In my opinion he's already showing signs that he is the best coach that the club has had since David Parkin retired. There must be something in the water for former Hawthorn employees doing well at Carlton as coaches. At least for the Hawks Brett Ratten has been a significant part of their triple premiership team. My only wish is that Bolton and the club are not sabotaged from our power brokers.

Best players: M. Murphy, P. Cripps, B. Gibbs, S. Docherty, M. Wright

Best New Blue: J. Weitering

Round Two: Carlton 10.11.71 lost to Sydney 20.11.131 - Etihad (T)

After taking on an undermanned Richmond in Round One Carlton faced the Sydney Swans who obliterated a luckless Collingwood team in round one at home. The Swans were without McVeigh, Reid, Rohan, Alex Johnson (season) against the Pies and would be joined by new Swan and former Bulldog Michael Talia (foot).

The result of this match was semi expected going into it. The Swans somewhat continued their red hot form against us and put us to the sword. The Blues continued the habit of having periods of concentration loss where the Swans put a few goals on the board but this is to be expected from a young side playing against a well oiled machine.

Highlights of the game for the Blues were Charlie Curnow kicking a goal in his debut game and overall having a very promising game. Already there are a number of people within the media giving him plaudits and who are excited by his talent. I believe it was Dunstall who was more than happy to state that he felt Weitering continued on from his positive start against Richmond by again featuring with some intercept marks.

Thomas had a fine season debut for the Blues easily featuring among our best players. Hopefully he can put the injuries behind him and contribute a good season. Sam Kerridge again featured among our best as did young leaders Sam Docherty and Patrick Cripps.

A question for me coming out of the game is whether the club can afford to carry two ruckmen in Kreuzer and Phillips who don't see much of the ball. After ten possessions last week Kreuzer only had six today while Phillips had two less than last week and finished with three.

Of course, the other question persists as it probably will most of the season and quite possibly into next season is where do the Blues get their goals from? I never saw the VFL practice match, obviously, and reading from some of those that did about Kristian Jaksch's performance was a little disconcerting. I'd like to see him called up but if his form wasn't warranting of it then I feel he needs to earn that call up rather than it being gifted to him.

Expectations - Gold Coast Vs Carlton

Gold Coast

It is now or never for the Suns. Jaeger O'Meara (who will likely not play in the first half of the year) and Dion Prestia are at the end of their contracts come the end of the year. Both are expected to at the very least test the waters and get significant offers from other clubs with Prestia likely to head to a Melbourne-based club and O'Meara either heading home to Perth or taking a big offer to play in Melbourne as well. Unfortunately these have been the realities of the two expansion clubs with both clubs already losing significant players. Unfortunately for the AFL it is becoming increasingly likely that neither club becomes the juggernaut that they had hoped for but this rings truer for the Suns.

Therefore the season expectations for Gold Coast are a massive weight on the club. It may be the last genuinely great season they get from Ablett. It would be a bitter disappointment if he were unable to lead them into September. The win over Fremantle in WA improve their chances for a debut finals but it'll take much more than two weeks to consider them favorites for finals action. We all saw what happened when GAJ got injured in 2014.

Carlton

For Carlton it's not about wins or losses in 2016. If we win more than a handful of games everyone will believe that we overachieved yet if we only win three or four it will fall in line with expectations and people will look for the growth where it matters most – in terms of list depth and the hopeful emergence of a number of our future prospects.

For that reason the burden is on coach Brendon Bolton and the kids. Can Patrick Cripps continue to grow as a footballer or will he have breakout blues. Can Blaine Boekhorst make something of himself and stamp himself as a locked in senior grade footballer? Can Weitering continue to live up to the demands the club, fans and media place upon a standout number one pick? The pressure is on our other key draftees to show something and likewise the GWS four. Sam Docherty needs to continue his ascent in the leadership of the club. For the first time in years, perhaps since the mid-1990s or even 1980s the club has a ton of young talent with the sky truly being the limit for many of them but it is up to them and the club to grow and to stick.

The Matchup - Gold Coast Vs Carlton

Gold Coast are a team that prefer to play fast football. That is where the strength in their club lays. Their players are fast and they move the ball very quickly where their highly skilled small to mid sized players can be at their most effective. In some ways their list strengths remind me of the type of football that Brett Ratten coached at Carlton.

Carlton under Brendon Bolton are a team that is still building their identity. I believe that we possess skilled footballers in defense and the midfield but only a few of them are at the peak of their careers. Several such as Kade Simpson and Andrew Walker are holding their positions in the side as capable of veterans while youngsters such as Weitering are just starting out on their AFL journey. This contrasts with Gold Coast who have a few veterans but have a lot of their youngsters growing into the right age and experience profile to be highly competitive.

When you compare the Gold Coast's best style of football to the strengths of the Carlton lists this game looms as a clash of skills. Gold Coast will want to play the game on their terms and make it a high scoring affair while Carlton will likely want to play intelligent football at a slower pace. I suspect that the game will likely be played at a pace that will favor the Suns but not to the point where the Blues are completely out of it. In order to win Carlton are looking at having to score between 17 to 20 goals.

Anticipated Changes

Tom Nicholls rucks all day for the Suns. Sam Day will give him a bit of a spell. I anticipate that we may give Phillips a miss this week and have Kreuzer contest Nicholls. Again, I didn't see the NB game so if Gorringe didn't play well then obviously my tactical in/out wouldn't work. Gorringe would play forward and rest Kreuzer. I'd like to see Byrne get a game in the seniors and both Boekhorst and Lamb suffered in game injuries that they played out of. If either pulls up sore during the week I'd put Byrne in for them.

Gold Coast suffered no injuries against Fremantle. Miller and Rosa were one week injuries. They probably keep the same 22 that defeated Fremantle unless they put Rosa back into the side. Not sure who would go out but I'm guessing Rischitelli or Lemmens. It's hard to make an omission from their team.

Carlton In: Daniel Gorringe, Ciaran Byrne -- Out: Andrew Phillips (omit), Blaine Boekhorst/Jed Lamb (injury?)

Gold Coast: No Change unless it's Rosa in for Rischitelli or Lemmens

Key Matchups

Ed Curnow Vs Gary Ablett

It goes without saying that this great match up will take place again. The last time these two went at it Ablett got his self-admitted and Brownlow determining single vote. Ablett will get his possessions but it's how hard he has to work for them that will determine the matchup.

Sam Kerridge Vs Aaron Hall

Aaron Hall has quietly become one of the elite midfielders who can play forward in the AFL and is one of the Gold Coast's most damaging players. I'd put Kerridge onto Hall to start proceedings but I could quite easily see our other Sam, Docherty, being given the responsibility. Either man is capable of playing a very good game but Hall could be the game breaker.

Zach Tuohy Vs Jack Martin

Jack Martin had a ripper of a game against the Dockers (16 disposals, 11 marks, 4 goals, 4 inside 50s) and is in fine form to start the season. He's another game winner for the Suns and they will be expecting him to have another great game against us. That's where Tuohy steps in as the AFL coach's choice as the premier small-to-medium defender has to stop Martin damaging the Blues.

Predictions

I predict that Curnow does another touch up job on Gary Ablett who he has a good record on but that it's other Gold Coast players that give us the run around. I have a genuine fear that Lynch will be the catalyst to their victory with Hall and Prestia playing key roles. Neither Jamison or Rowe are suited for a Lynch match up.

For Carlton I suspect that it will be Patrick Cripps and Bryce Gibbs who are our two standout performers on the day. I'd love to see Casboult have a big game but Steven May is emerging as an All-Australian contender so it will be a tough gig for him.

This is one of two games that I know that I will have the opportunity to attend and as much as I'd love to see a Carlton victory – and it's in my heart to see a Carlton win – I have to go with my head and predict that Carlton will lose by five or six goals. It has the potential to get ugly for us if we're not on our game.
 
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Is it too early to be asking for the team selections? Sorry, I'm just stressed out.

I'd give Phillips another chance. If not, then bringing in Wood wouldn't hurt. Lamb doesn't seem damaging enough compared to other players. I'd like to see Smith given another opportunity. Dick or Byrne could be a handy inclusion.
I wouldn't rush Plowman, give him another week or two.
 
Out Everitt, Rowe maybe Lamb

In Jones, form and work-rate has been good in the 2's while Everitt has been Henerson-like. Not really fussed who replaces Everitt, could just as easily be KJ.
In Bryne, GC do not rely overly on tall targets, so I think we have enough talls without Rowe, bring on the run of Byrne.
Lamb has not done anything wrong, but just doesn't seem damaging enough, I'd consider bringing in Sumner.
 

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Course not - but just because he's in the twos and has already played ones doesn't mean his papers are stamped does it? Or does it?

While we have no injuries, go the D Word thread.

Still reckon we play a tall too many...................so step up.........whoever is next.

They'll get a shot.
 
Even if Jones plays okay in the 2s does he really deserve a call up?

He's had his go at AFL level and shown countless times he's not up to par. Would rather play Curnow and Jaksch.

I completely agree that I'd leave Charlie in the side, but the Everitt thing for me is an important cultural message.

The twos need to believe that consistent effort and good form will lead to opportunities, and the seniors need to understand that conditional effort will not be accepted. Jones has been the most inform and productive forward in the twos and his effort and tackling pressure have been good, I feel this is an opportunity to re-enforce BB's mantra that everyone has a clean slate, and that effort equals reward.

But as you say KJ has also been good in the two's and it could just as easily be him in for Everitt.
 
Amongst other things, our team seems to be lacking a bit of run to me...ran out of gas in the last quarter against Richmond, and were outrun by Sydney's midfield today. Our midfield is too shallow at the moment though we don't really have anyone to call up.

Still think we're too tall down back with Jamo, Rowe, White and Weitering...id like to see us drop one of them for Byrne to add run and pace.
I don't think we'll do it, but i wouldnt mind seeing Walker in for Phillips, and Casboult ruck/forward...go with a more mobile forward line with Walker, Curnow, Everitt etc.
 
If there's anyone here who's travelling up to Metricon for the game next week and has any questions, you're all more than welcome to post anything on our board - we're always happy to help the opposition travelers so you if you need anything, you know where to find it :)

P.S. Can't wait to finally see Weitering and Cripps in the flesh on Saturday

P.P.S. Can't be serious about playing Gorringe, surely?
 
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