Preview Rnd 3 - Carlton v North Friday 29th March 4.20PM @ Marvel - Team Stickied

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Team is in …


IN:
Elijah Hollands, Caleb Marchbank, Jacob Weitering
OUT: David Cuningham (calf), Brodie Kemp, Lewis Young
NEW: Elijah Hollands








Round 3 team v North Melbourne
Backs:Caleb MarchbankJacob WeiteringZac Williams
Half-backs:Adam SaadMitch McGovernNic Newman
Centreline:Ollie HollandsPatrick CrippsBlake Acres
Half-forwards:Matthew OwiesHarry McKayMatthew Kennedy
Forwards:Elijah HollandsCharlie CurnowLachie Fogarty
Followers:Tom De KoningAdam CerraGeorge Hewett
Interchange:Jordan BoydJack CarrollMatthew Cottrell
Corey DurdinOrazio Fantasia
Emergencies:Jaxon BinnsMarc PittonetLewis Young
 
I wouldn’t want to make more than 3 changes … Walsh and weitering mandatory if they are fit and ready … 1 of Martin and Motlop if ready and maybe 1 as the sub ….. also north always challenge us so this won’t be a walk in the park … looking forward to this game and who plays
 
North have a habit of really pushing us, and Larkey has a day out against us. I'm not taking this one for granted.

Brisbane's form against Freo, has me questioning our win over them. We also struggled against the Tigers so it's hard to properly gauge our form.

Most of our game plan relies on attitude and application. That only needs to be off by a few percent for it to break down.

I'll feel better if Weitering is back, but will take Marchbank in a pinch. I'll also feel better with Elijah coming in, if Walsh isn't going to be ready. Just need a dynamic lift in there.

North have a young midfield, but it is stacked with talent and they can move the ball. We're the hunted here.

Lions were travelling had no Neale or Coleman and Payne.Completely different team at the Gabba.


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Righto peeps.
Country boy here, can’t get to the game for varying reasons but will be in the Carlton area on the day.
What’s the best pub to watch this in the area??
Cheers.
 

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It’s evident that supporters are never going to fully trust us no matter what we do.Its obviously the last 20 years of being mediocre at best that has conditioned us that way.




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First half of last year is less than 12 months ago, trust is built over a much longer period than effectively 14 games let alone the very slow build up to the start of 2023 where we’ve seen other clubs reach finals well before we did in their rebuilds.


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North looked very efficient against the Giants. Yes they were outplayed but they did quite a bit with what they had.

They won't necessarily be the easy beat team we've known in recent times.

Their game against Freo will help tell us a bit more.
I agree, reckon they will push us like the tigers
 
Two things. I think the North game will be viewed as a soft game and an opportunity to bring players back and get a real AFL game into them before a much tougher game. The Fremantle game will be viewed as a tough game as they look pretty good. So I think we are going to want to be playing Freo with a strong side and that means we will want a game into some of these star players who are returning.

B: Boyd Weitering McGovern
HB: Saad Marchbank Williams
C: Acres Cripps Hollands
HF: Cottrell McKay Cuningham
F: Owies Curnow Martin
OB: DeKoning Cerra Hewett
IC: Newman Carroll Kennedy Fantasia
SUB: E Hollands
EM: Kemp Fogarty Motlop

IN/OUT:
Weitering/Young - Young had done a fair job at nullifying some good key forwards but Weitering is a few levels above him. He's got a lot more layers to his game. This is an obvious one. Weitering improves us a great deal, even if a little underdone.

Marchbank/Kemp - Marchbank is a level above Kemp who has been good. Marchbank is key position size and a genuine modern day CHB while Kemp is more third tall who can pinch hit as a CHB. Kemp has done well, I'm happy with his game but Marchbank has more layers and is more suited. Better in the air, gets involved a bit more when we have the ball, is an elite runner who can push up the ground and has elite footy IQ as a defender. He finished last season really well in the CHB position and he will resume there in this game IMO. I'm predicting a real breakout year for Marchbank. The question is about his conditioning. He may not be there yet.

Martin/Fogarty - Fogarty is a workman and an effort player who tackles well and applies good pressure. Martin is a level above him however. He's an elite footballer when fit. Assuming he is fit and ready to go he walks back into our side IMO. There is a possibility we may give him a VFL game but I don't think we will. I think the North game will be his warm up and the Freo game we will need him firing. Jack Martin does what Fogarty does and a whole lot more. IMO Martin is a player we have really missed.

Durdin/E Hollands - Hollands comes in but not in full. IMO he comes in as the sub with the idea that he needs a game, needs to prove himself and he can replace a lot of players on the field as well as being an impact player. So to me he makes the perfect Sub. Durdin unlucky, came on looked good in a brief moment, but some good VFL games will hopefully get him pushing hard for senior selection.


Notes
I don't know if Motlop will come back in this week but if he does it will be for Fantasia. I have still got questions around the defensive aspects of Motlop's game and his tank. Fantasia has been quiet but I get the feeling he will get one more game. Easily slips into the Fogarty role IMO. Felt he was nearly there on a lot of occasions so is still settling in. TOG was fairly low so he's probably still building fitness.

That IMO is our best 7 backline. Having Marchbank and Weitering back gives us a huge injection of talent, intercept marking, two way run and footy IQ. That is as good a backline as there is in the game. It's the best backline we have had since 1995 or possibly earlier.

O Hollands is under a bit of pressure to keep his spot IMO. Two weeks of low possessions will put you under the pump. Wing can be like that and his efforts have likely gone into defending but it does open the door a little for someone with good form. Cottrell has been mentioned moving full time there but I feel he is comfortable in his position at half forward and part time wing.

The forward line is a little bit better. Definitely has upped the talent. But it depends if those players come in underdone or not.

Walsh is a likely in in the following weeks I feel. He will probably replace Carroll but I'm not 100% on that. Carroll could hold his spot with form and that could put Kennedy under the pump.

I think playing E Hollands as sub gives him the opportunity to prove and cement himself in the side while not just giving him a game. He should fill the sub role really well. I can see us subbing Martin off early and giving him a run in this team.

Kemp I would like to see trialled on a wing in the VFL. There are a few reasons for this. One is that he has really good speed, knows how to sit out the back of contests and receive, he's a good run and carry player. The other reason is that he would be a really good player to get back in defence and sit in the hole as he is already good at reading the ball coming in and intercept marking. Acres is great at this, Hollands is ok, on potential Kemp would be elite. It's all about his tank but the VFL is a good place to build on this.

Add Walsh and possibly Motlop to this team and you have our 2024 best 22. So it's really exciting how things are coming along for us.

It is getting harder to pick the team now as our list is a genuine top 4 list. It comes down to picking the better and better form players.
 
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North have a habit of really pushing us, and Larkey has a day out against us. I'm not taking this one for granted.

Brisbane's form against Freo, has me questioning our win over them. We also struggled against the Tigers so it's hard to properly gauge our form.

Most of our game plan relies on attitude and application. That only needs to be off by a few percent for it to break down.

I'll feel better if Weitering is back, but will take Marchbank in a pinch. I'll also feel better with Elijah coming in, if Walsh isn't going to be ready. Just need a dynamic lift in there.

North have a young midfield, but it is stacked with talent and they can move the ball. We're the hunted here.

Agree with most of this. I just think that Brisbane in Brisbane is the toughest task in the AFL ATM and you can't underestimate how good that win was to give them a big head start and reel them in. But North definitely a danger game. Hell even Richmond pushed us right to the end just because they wanted it more. If we come with the right attitude we should be fine.
 
TOG % for defenders
KEMP 100%
Young 95%
McGovern 84%
Newman 82%
Saad 82%
Williams 77%
Boyd 80%

If anyone thinks we are rushing an underdone Weitering and/or Marchbank back playing managed minutes at the earliest opportunity, they are kidding themself.

If Marchy dropped 6kg, he will be on a slow build, not playing 90%+ of game time. Can’t see Weiters, our main man returning to chase the athletic Larkey arounfd, would be a monster ask returning from significant soft tissue issue and tempting fate for him to re-injury himself.
Marchy you definitely would give him a few weeks in the VFL with his history and led him ease in slowly. Weiters probably do with a good week or 2 of heavy match sim sessions to assess when he's ready to slot it.
 
Horne on SEN very complimentary of Gov and Kemp as the key reason our defensive transition game has improved this year

Very much so. Part of our turnaround last year was getting better speed on the ball off the backline. Vaguely coincided with Young out, Kemp in. I think Gov and Kemp are absolutely to be persisted with as that can become a real strength. We all know the backline is built on Weitering foundations, but those guys can provide the intercept, flair and counter-punch. Kemp plays every week in my view.

2 or 3 changes at maximum, for mine. Plenty of guys coming off injuries and poor fitness history (Marchy, Martin, etc). No reason to rush.

There's 5-6 small/mid sized forwards/flankers fighting for 3-4 spots. Be interesting to see who really takes ownership of those roles.
 

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Over the next two games, the following changes should be made:

Weitering for Young - self-explanatory
Walsh for Ollie - although important structurally, I dont think Ollie has contributed enough with ball in hand over the past 2 games.
Martin for Kennedy - people forget how good Martin back end of last season was. Easily slots into our best 22.
Motlop for Fantasia - I'm sure Orazio will find his way back into the team at some stage. We've seen glimpses of his talent in the navy blue, but glimpses aren't going to cut it anymore...
 
If Marchbank is right I think he plays 2s. He's an upgrade on Kemp but not enough to play him straight away after a bout of post viral fatigue and I don't think he is interchangeable with Young. Happy to ease him in.

Also, is Young on Larkey (if Weiters can't get up) giving anyone else nightmares?🤣🤣
 
If Marchbank is right I think he plays 2s. He's an upgrade on Kemp but not enough to play him straight away after a bout of post viral fatigue and I don't think he is interchangeable with Young. Happy to ease him in.

Also, is Young on Larkey (if Weiters can't get up) giving anyone else nightmares?🤣🤣
A fit Marchbank is absolutely in the discussion as a one for one replacement for Young. Lewis is a worry, but I don’t see him as bad as many on here. So many posters grab on a play or two to push a point, and don’t look at the larger picture.

I actually think that Kemp will be given some time on Larkey. An under rated star of the game, Larkey has given Weiters hell, such is his athletic profile combined with genuine skills. Kemp has the closing speed and athleticism to quell Larkey, but it would likely be a given that at some stage Larkey would make him look inadequate. (Larkey has done that to Weiters on occasion, due to the athletic differences).

Larkey is stopped by stopping or pressuring the source up the ground.

We are building our game, so may work on structures and specifics, but it is hard not to think we should seek to blow them off the park with their pop gun defence. Harry and Charlie are in good Nick and we have some very hungry players to put around them. Spots in that forward mix are going to be oh so contested internally. There is currently not a clear “preferred lineup”.
 
If Marchbank is right I think he plays 2s. He's an upgrade on Kemp but not enough to play him straight away after a bout of post viral fatigue and I don't think he is interchangeable with Young. Happy to ease him in.

Also, is Young on Larkey (if Weiters can't get up) giving anyone else nightmares?🤣🤣
Larkey's pretty weak for a KPF so I'm less worried about Young against him than I would be against Hawkins or Dixon etc. Think Young should have enough speed and height to hold Larkey if pressure is good up the field.

Only concern is that Larkey's a bit of a dirty player and he loves trying to draw frees if he's being beaten as we saw last week vs Taylor. Started dropping his knees for frees and throwing his head back.

Also hoping Young hasn't forgotten Larkey trying to end his career tunnelling him under the ball because he was copping an absolute bath that day. A fired up L Young should be enough to get the job done I think.
 
Over the next two games, the following changes should be made:

Weitering for Young - self-explanatory
Walsh for Ollie - although important structurally, I dont think Ollie has contributed enough with ball in hand over the past 2 games.
Martin for Kennedy - people forget how good Martin back end of last season was. Easily slots into our best 22.
Motlop for Fantasia - I'm sure Orazio will find his way back into the team at some stage. We've seen glimpses of his talent in the navy blue, but glimpses aren't going to cut it anymore...
Those calling for Motlop to replace Fantasia may be in for a surprise. A toe injury would have kept Mots “off legs”, so he may be underdone. The bloke who came off the bench will be in serious contention.
 
I reckon I can count on one hand the times we have thumped North in my existence. They seem to have a knack of either pushing us to the edge or knocking us over. Went last year with Sinjin Snr and Jnr and all three of us left quite deflated, yeah we won but we were 8 goals up around 3 qtr time and only won by 3 odd. North seriously outplayed us for the majority of the match, was very even to half time and the difference was our twin towers.

If we get our shit together and the 3rd qtr Carlton v Brisbane show up then we should brush them aside considering their youth but not confident, we could barely get past a pretty ordinary Richmond who were 2 men down.

Would love a comfortable win, cant handle these close games anymore, I need a portable defibrillator and a shitload of Valium.
 
Those calling for Motlop to replace Fantasia may be in for a surprise. A toe injury would have kept Mots “off legs”, so he may be underdone. The bloke who came off the bench will be in serious contention.
Assuming Fog and Owies are locks in the team, another pressure forward, like Durdin, isn't what we need. Motlop is an x-factor player and coming off a really good 2023.
Having said that, I don't really mind who plays out of Motlop, Durdin and Fantasia as I rate them all highly. As you said, its then a good idea to base selection off immediate fitness / form.
 
Young will do the job on Larkey, he's a good blanketing fullback. He's kept Lynch and Daniher really quiet. Our ability to defend as a team of course is the key here. Gone are the days you stick the fullback on the full forward and don't apply midfield pressure and allow them too much space or one on ones.

I think we will be stuck between bringing players back too early and wanting to bring players back in a game against a weaker opposition before we play a stronger opponent the following week.

I could see us bringing a chunk of players this week and for them to not play well only to have them back to their normal selves the following week because getting that game into them is valuable.

Fitness staff will allow them back when they are confident their bodies are ready.

Fortunately with all players that are due to return, the guys filling in for them are playing well so the pressure is off.

I thought North may have been a little better than what we have seen so far so while this should be a game we win easily, there is no assurance here. There is plenty of young talent in their side so you could expect them to still be in this at 3/4 and hopefully we blow them away after this.

With Marchbank, he has had a good preseason. They see him as their CHB. That's why he finished there and in match sim plays against guys like Curnow. If they think he is fit enough he will be back soon but how soon and how fit is they question. This is not the usual comeback for him where he is coming back from a year or two out. He's coming back from a month or so out after having a really good preseason.

I can see us playing Martin with the intention to sub him out at some stage.

I can see us wanting to make Hollands earn a spot so sub or VFL for him.

Motlop on last year's fitness and form probably doesn't walk into this team but track watchers reckon both those aspects have improved so who knows.

I think Durdin could be really close to an opportunity as well. Go back a couple of seasons, he was a lock, last year was a really down season and this year he should be at his peak maturity wise. Really rate him. Fantasia getting subbed out, that is never a good sign.
 
Such as who?
Few examples, From completely bottoming out to finals
Collingwood - 2004, finals 2006
Hawthorn - 2003, finals 2007
Sydney - 2019, finals 2021
Melbourne - 2012, finals 2018
Port Adelaide - 2011, finals 2013
West Coast - 2008, finals 2011
GWS - 2011, finals 2016
Western Bulldogs - 2012, finals 2015


Carlton - 2015, finals 2023

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Few examples, From completely bottoming out to finals
Collingwood - 2004, finals 2006
Hawthorn - 2003, finals 2007
Sydney - 2019, finals 2021
Melbourne - 2012, finals 2018
Port Adelaide - 2011, finals 2013
West Coast - 2008, finals 2011
GWS - 2011, finals 2016
Western Bulldogs - 2012, finals 2015


Carlton - 2015, finals 2023

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I think there is a big difference between dipping and or a poor period to rebuilding
 
How many changes to a winning team?

Surely, we'll make a max of 3 changes.
Any more just doesn't feel right and not rewarding the players who have helped to win the previous game
 
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