Autopsy Round 1 vs Sydney @ Heritage Bank Stadium. 18/03/23 - 7pm

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+ Ben King
true
He's shaping as a massive key to unlock the door to finals
Funny I was really confident in our backline a couple of years ago-they were often the only thing keeping us in games but when you see the firepower some of the other teams can bring a second look at our backs makes me feel a bit uneasy
Collo is struggling
Graham improving but going from an F to a D+ doesn't help the cause much
Not sure what to rate Long?
About our only A grader is Chucky B at the moment
 
true
He's shaping as a massive key to unlock the door to finals
Funny I was really confident in our backline a couple of years ago-they were often the only thing keeping us in games but when you see the firepower some of the other teams can bring a second look at our backs makes me feel a bit uneasy
Collo is struggling
Graham improving but going from an F to a D+ doesn't help the cause much
Not sure what to rate Long?
About our only A grader is Chucky B at the moment
First half of last season our defence was performing very well as a team. With a couple new faces in there it's going to take a bit of time but confident that we can make it work. Weller and Powell returning will make a big difference, they add some run and more importantly skill to the back half.
 
We've added Long
Not much else, so our improvement has to be evolutionary
When you look at some of the other lists brimming with A graders our players are going to have to take a big step up
This is such a tough competition. Many of our competitors for those spots in the lower half of the eight have recruited impressively over the summer to address their deficiencies. Making the eight will be a major achievement should we do it. If I was a betting man I’d take 2024 over 2023 as our first finals appearance. One more year into our core, plus a couple of the fabled A Grade mature recruits will be a huge catalyst.
 

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This is such a tough competition. Many of our competitors for those spots in the lower half of the eight have recruited impressively over the summer to address their deficiencies. Making the eight will be a major achievement should we do it. If I was a betting man I’d take 2024 over 2023 as our first finals appearance. One more year into our core, plus a couple of the fabled A Grade mature recruits will be a huge catalyst.
I'm so pissed Rankine shot through
When you're actually at the game and not just watching on TV you see how much he creates
People used to focus on his outcomes rather than what he was doing in the lead up but he's going to be a Hall of Famer
I was in the throw everything we had at him camp but I guess there just comes a point where you have to give up
 
First half of last season our defence was performing very well as a team. With a couple new faces in there it's going to take a bit of time but confident that we can make it work. Weller and Powell returning will make a big difference, they add some run and more importantly skill to the back half.
Weller and Powell are great returns but they are coming off massive injuries.If they stay fit it's realistically a couple of months before they're match fit and doing what we expect from them
 
Weller and Powell are great returns but they are coming off massive injuries.If they stay fit it's realistically a couple of months before they're match fit and doing what we expect from them
If we have just one of them available for round one (probably Powell) then it's going to make a big difference because we won't be forced to play someone like DMac in the backline. The combination of Powell and Long can give us that skill and run out of the backline and it may even allow us to play a slightly smaller line up with 191cm Farrar/Constable being used as a third tall instead of Graham. Then we'll start to get a few more defenders back like Weller and Andrew a few rounds into the season and we should be in a much better position going forward.

It looks like Sydney will play a three tall forward line of Buddy (199cm), Reid (196cm) and McDonald (196cm) with Ladhams (202cm) rotating through. No Tom Hickey (201cm) in round 1 certainly helps our cause and I'd imagine that will send Reid into the ruck and he won't be as much of a threat as a forward due to the playing time. So can we get away with not playing Graham against those three talls or will it be too much and crab will get the call up? There's obviously still the option to send Casboult (198cm) if things get ugly without Graham. I'm guessing Long (183cm) will probably be given the task of trying to stop Heeney (184cm). That seems like a good match up in terms of height, athletic ability and hardness at the ball. With all that said, I'd still like to add Powell to our backline if he's available.
 
We've added Long
Not much else, so our improvement has to be evolutionary
When you look at some of the other lists brimming with A graders our players are going to have to take a big step up

We probably need 10 of our best 25 to go up a full level and the rest to hold (like Touk to stay elite).
So we need movement from:
D to average.
average to B.
B to A.
and maybe one or two can push to elite.

Decent chance that some will come out of the mid-age players like Farrar, Long, Chol and Ainsworth.
But most have to come from the 3rd to 5th years like Hollands, Jeffries, Davies, Ace, Rosas, Ando, Rowell, Lukosius, King, Powell, Ballard, Crab*.

If we don't get a lot of players improving then doubt we play finals b/c some other teams already have enough elite, A and B graders to play finals

* I did not mention Flanders in this group since he has jumped straight to A.
 
Think the keys are Rowell and Anderson becoming A's to move our midfield to the elite status. Think ainsworth is about to become an A and if we can get improvement from rosas, chol and luko we should be good up forward. Down back not so confident, I like the addition of long, ballard is probably the one who can go next level along with Powell but unfair to expect too much yet. Weller and Budarick to stay fit will be huge. Nice run with injuries and the team will improve along with the individual.
 
- Izak Rankine
King impacts the game more than Rankine. It's a net gain for us.

Touk is already an A grader. Anderson looks like he's right on the verge of breaking through as an A grader. Rowell & Lukosius have the ability to be A graders but it's not clear if they'll get there this year. Flanders, Hollands and Ballard look like they have the potential to go another gear this year. We've got some wildcards like Jeffrey and Davies there as well.
 
King impacts the game more than Rankine. It's a net gain for us.

Touk is already an A grader. Anderson looks like he's right on the verge of breaking through as an A grader. Rowell & Lukosius have the ability to be A graders but it's not clear if they'll get there this year. Flanders, Hollands and Ballard look like they have the potential to go another gear this year. We've got some wildcards like Jeffrey and Davies there as well.
Not sure about that, Casboult and Chol all but nullified the loss of King last year I felt. With King returning, probably for Casboult, how many extra goals are we gonna get? Probably fewer contested marks and probably a worse option for the long bomb which is our go to. Rankine on the other hand created goals out of nothing, we don't have anyone that can replace that. Adding to that we should probably cool our expectations on King returning from injury, I'd expect Rankine to kick more goals than King this year. So without internal improvement, I'd say we are running at a net loss in 2023.

Having said that, I think it's all down to Rowell and Anderson, if they become A graders and touk and witts stays fit, that quartet alongside all the (untapped) talent we have around the ground, will start to dominate midfields and win more games.

Watching rankine at the Crows is going to hurt at times but I just remind myself that netted us bailey Humphrey. Early days but reckon he's a future star.
Agreed, Humphrey will be a star. But I think he's a target up forward/midfielder, and when we have 4 or 5 key talls, that crumbing small fwd role becomes even more important to our structure.
 
true
He's shaping as a massive key to unlock the door to finals
Funny I was really confident in our backline a couple of years ago-they were often the only thing keeping us in games but when you see the firepower some of the other teams can bring a second look at our backs makes me feel a bit uneasy
Collo is struggling
Graham improving but going from an F to a D+ doesn't help the cause much
Not sure what to rate Long?
About our only A grader is Chucky B at the moment
Ballard A grade!

Wow.
I’d have him pretty much an average key defender across the league.

Nowhere near as good as your actual A graders Moore, Cox, Pearce, Taylor, May, Weitering etc..

Better than your D graders Grahams, Clurey, Frost etc.

Somewhere in the middle with your Dougal Howard, Darcy Gardiner, patty mccartin, Jordan Ridley level players.

Still has room to improve though.
 

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Ballard A grade!

Wow.
I’d have him pretty much an average key defender across the league.

Nowhere near as good as your actual A graders Moore, Cox, Pearce, Taylor, May, Weitering etc..

Better than your D graders Grahams, Clurey, Frost etc.

Somewhere in the middle with your Dougal Howard, Darcy Gardiner, patty mccartin, Jordan Ridley level players.

Still has room to improve though.

Ridley won a Best and fairest.
I’d take that.

A defence only holds up if the midfield gets back.

Our defence has been peppered since day dot.
With a midfield not good enough to mix it with the best.

Our defence got torched again on the weekend with a midfield without Touk. And a few others pulling up
Stumps at halftime.

Be interesting to see how it stands up this year
 
Mock teams.

Gold Coast v Sydney, Heritage Bank Stadium, 7pm AEST

GOLD COAST

B:
Caleb Graham, Sam Collins, Jy Farrar
HB: Ben Long, Charlie Ballard, Charlie Constable
C: Brandon Ellis, Noah Anderson, Elijah Hollands
HF: Ben Ainsworth, Jack Lukosius, Alex Davies
F: Nick Holman, Ben King, Mabior Chol
Foll: Jarrod Witts, Matt Rowell, Touk Miller
I/C: Darcy Macpherson, Sam Flanders, David Swallow, Levi Casboult
EMERG: Sam Day, Brayden Fiorini, Connor Blakely, Joel Jeffrey

NEW: Ben Long
UNAVAILABLE: Mac Andrew (suspension), Connor Budarick (knee), Lachie Weller (knee).

NOTES: Stability and greater depth are the hallmarks of Gold Coast's list entering 2023, but the backline has needed some re-working with the absences of Weller and Budarick. Wil Powell (hamstring) and Sean Lemmens (calf) could well be available, but the Suns are likely to err on the side of caution, giving Constable and Macpherson chances to shine. No.6 draft pick Bailey Humphrey is right in the frame, but a foot infection has slowed him down, and like Powell and Lemmens, is likely to just miss. King returns after missing a year with a ruptured ACL, spearheading a four-tall forward line that could just as easily include Jeffrey. – Michael Whiting

 
Powell playing early would be massive, even if it is Round 2.

On paper that team still looks pretty good. Defence will be better once Powell and Weller are fit and Lemmens will push for a spot as well, otherwise that is a very competitive team.

Only change I would make is Jeffrey instead of Casboult.
 
Not sure about that, Casboult and Chol all but nullified the loss of King last year I felt. With King returning, probably for Casboult, how many extra goals are we gonna get? Probably fewer contested marks and probably a worse option for the long bomb which is our go to. Rankine on the other hand created goals out of nothing, we don't have anyone that can replace that. Adding to that we should probably cool our expectations on King returning from injury, I'd expect Rankine to kick more goals than King this year. So without internal improvement, I'd say we are running at a net loss in 2023.
Casboult faded late in the season when we needed him most. He kicked just 2 goals in the last 4 games and 3 of those games were against 17th West Coast, 13th Hawthorn and 18th North Melbourne. You could argue if Casboult had maintained his form in the first half of the season then we'd have made the finals last year. I think we're far less likely to see a fade out like that from Ben King who seems to be primed physically as opposed to Casboult who is on the decline. I guess we'll see how many goals Rankine kicks this year but I get feeling Adelaide want to use him more in the midfield than we did so I actually disagree and think King will kick more goals if both stay fit all year.

Ballard A grade!

Wow.
I’d have him pretty much an average key defender across the league.

Nowhere near as good as your actual A graders Moore, Cox, Pearce, Taylor, May, Weitering etc..

Better than your D graders Grahams, Clurey, Frost etc.

Somewhere in the middle with your Dougal Howard, Darcy Gardiner, patty mccartin, Jordan Ridley level players.

Still has room to improve though.
Didn't Ballard lead the league for intercept marks for most of last season?
 
You'd be wrong
We missed the finals by 2 wins and 6%. Considering he kicked 21 goals in the first half of the year and 14 goals in the second half of the year as well as 3 of those final 11 games we lost by 7 points or less, I would argue 7 extra goals from Casboult could have made the difference in terms of our finals aspirations. We were a lot closer to playing finals last year than some people would like to admit.
 
As much as I love Ballard he is nowhere near A player. B with a scope for improvement. As I already posted, last year he had double turnovers, double clangers and worse DE even compared to Graham. Yes, a great interceptor but he still struggles one on one and turnovers ball way too much. Ballard had 7.2 intercepts, Graham 4.5, Collins 7.3, Weitering 6.1, Andrews 6.3, May 7.5
 
I'm so pissed Rankine shot through
When you're actually at the game and not just watching on TV you see how much he creates
People used to focus on his outcomes rather than what he was doing in the lead up but he's going to be a Hall of Famer
I was in the throw everything we had at him camp but I guess there just comes a point where you have to give up
Izak was that small forward who really worries the opposition defenders making the forward line more dangerous. Unless someone steps up, he will be a huge loss.
 
We missed the finals by 2 wins and 6%. Considering he kicked 21 goals in the first half of the year and 14 goals in the second half of the year as well as 3 of those final 11 games we lost by 7 points or less, I would argue 7 extra goals from Casboult could have made the difference in terms of our finals aspirations. We were a lot closer to playing finals last year than some people would like to admit.
Agree, we were closer to finals more than most people believe. 2W 5L was far from ideal start but we should never have lost to Collingwood at home. That was heart breaker, season defining loss. Hawks in Tas was another one. We were parked in our forward half all time in the last quarter but just could not score in windy conditions, some terrible misses from Chol, Luko. We played great game against Lions, were ahead at 3/4 time then Ballard went down and we faded. Close loss to Port was another great game with an unlucky outcome.

But we were extremely lucky against Tigers.
 
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As much as I love Ballard he is nowhere near A player. B with a scope for improvement. As I already posted, last year he had double turnovers, double clangers and worse DE even compared to Graham. Yes, a great interceptor but he still struggles one on one and turnovers ball way too much. Ballard had 7.2 intercepts, Graham 4.5, Collins 7.3, Weitering 6.1, Andrews 6.3, May 7.5
Definitely acknowledge he's a good interceptor

I also thought he was not great 1 v 1 but just looking up the stats on the AFL website - he's actually surprisingly good

% contested defensive 1 v 1 lost

May 10.6%
Grimes 12.5%
Moore 13.3%
Taylor 13.9%
Ballard 16.3%
Ben McKay 21.3%
Paddy McCartin 21.4%
Andrews 21.6%
Collins 22.2%
Pearce 22.9%
Brennan Cox 23.4%
Sam De Koning 24.6%
Sicily 25.8%
Tom McCartin 25.9%
Caleb Graham 28.1%
Ridley 29%
Weitering 30%
Howard 34%
Laverde 36.1%
 
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Definitely acknowledge he's a good interceptor

I also thought he was not great 1 v 1 but just looking up the stats on the AFL website - he's actually surprisingly good

% contested defensive 1 v 1 lost

May 10.6%
Grimes 12.5%
Moore 13.3%
Taylor 13.9%
Ballard 16.3%
Ben McKay 21.3%
Paddy McCartin 21.4%
Andrews 21.6%
Collins 22.2%
Pearce 22.9%
Brennan Cox 23.4%
Sam De Koning 24.6%
Sicily 25.8%
Tom McCartin 25.9%
Caleb Graham 28.1%
Ridley 29%
Weitering 30%
Howard 34%
Laverde 36.1%
Probably a reflection of who his opponent is more than anything. They make sure he isn't on the big marking forward. He is slowly getting bigger and stronger each year though and he will continue to develop his game. That stat reads well for Collins as he generally does get the bigger stronger opponents.
 

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Autopsy Round 1 vs Sydney @ Heritage Bank Stadium. 18/03/23 - 7pm

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