Round 10 Trades

[Hoges64]

I dont like any of the mid downgrade targets this week, so I'm thinking of bringing in Anthony Miles unsighted. I think he'll have a big game against his old club and keeping your place in that tigers side cant be too hard. Has been in superb form in the VFL and has already bashed out a few 90s in his short career.
The only thing that worries me is the dreaded vest, but surely Hardwick wont do that to him? Will he?

Well it's almost guaranteed he will NOW.

 

[rocker_oz33]

Miles is to pricey if this was a normal week (non bye) Someone like shenton would be a better pick.

 

[jjsmitty8]

I ended up going for:

Matt Wright > Ben Lennon.
Nick Robertson > Joel Selwood (Huge BE for Robertson)
Blake Acres > Cam Shenton (DPP is very handy)

I know Shenton has the bye, but I've got a full side (21 out of 22 on field players scoring, so I don't have to take my 3 worst scores) this week and if I'm going to trade Acres it's probably going to be for him anyway. I've got 106k left in the bank as well. I wanted to trade Polec, but he'll have to wait a week.

Next week when my side is full strength, Tyson and Polec will be M7 and M8. J.Lloyd and Shenton my subs. I'll probably trade Ambrose depending on his BE next week for Charlie Cameron, or trade Jason Ashby for Jed Bews, then use the 106k plus whatever I have left to upgrade Polec to another premium midfielder. Which will mean I have Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Beams, Selwood, Boak, (Another Premo), and Tyson.

 

[Skystyler]

The thing that worries me is that he is 246k....

this is true. Not much change from a Dunstan trade-in and Dunstan will make more next week and is less risky. Even if Miles does score well and keeps his spot, I could wait 2 weeks and be better off, other than the points he scores this week while Dunstan is on the bye. Scrap that idea.

So who then?

Hartung? I've already got Hallahan. You figure one of them will get vested if both keep getting selected. Dont like putting all my cows in the one paddock.
Claye Beams? next week maybe. I need someone I can play this week. Same goes for Shelton.

Maybe I'll just pick up Lennon this week and take a donut.

 

[leng jai]

Lennon plays for Richmond, so it won't be a donut.

 

[toxic]

this is true. Not much change from a Dunstan trade-in and Dunstan will make more next week and is less risky. Even if Miles does score well and keeps his spot, I could wait 2 weeks and be better off, other than the points he scores this week while Dunstan is on the bye. Scrap that idea.

So who then?

Hartung? I've already got Hallahan. You figure one of them will get vested if both keep getting selected. Dont like putting all my cows in the one paddock.
Claye Beams? next week maybe. I need someone I can play this week. Same goes for Shelton.

Maybe I'll just pick up Lennon this week and take a donut.

Swap a FWD/Mid to the mids when you trade Lennon in for Acres.

Following week when you trade Shenton in for Ambrose do the same thing in reverse

 

[RobZombie]

Tearing my hair out over Sam Gibson ATM. Have had him in and out 6 times already this week. FWIW, care mostly about leagues.

tl;dr is Macrae -> Gibson too sideways?

On the plus side:

* Can set and forget for $75-100K less than some more inconsistent premos, but with probably a bit less overall scoring.
* Definitely stepped up from last season and represents value -- is averaging 6 disposals a game more than last year with fewer clangers (27.4 @74.4%) and twice as many tackles.
* His game lends itself to consistent scoring - running machine, natural accumulator, gets better as the game goes on and he just blows opponents up.
* The same week I declared him a 90-120 player who will never post game-breaking scores, pulls out a 149. LOL me.
* North's post-bye draw, especially the last 4 weeks.
* POD factor

On the minus:

* Not really a proper premium?
* The game vs Brisbane was over as a contest by quarter time, so scoring favoured accumulators rather than game-winning heroics thus making the 149 an aberration.
* Getting him means culling Macrae, Polec or Tyson, none of which appeals very much. Macrae is only 6 points less on total than Gibbo, but more likely to tail off as the season goes on I would expect.
* LOL Norf

Is my vision clouded by my Norf Goggles(tm)? Breakeven of 61 suggests this is the week to get him, or do I save the trade and keep him in the mix for finals fine-tuning or injuries to premos? If I hold off can get by with 1 trade this week and have 15 left for the run home.

 

[dewah07]

acres? hold or fold?

 

[Lotch]

acres? hold or fold?

Fold eventually it just depends if he is your main priority this week.

How many players (pending selection) do you have this week?

 

[RobZombie]

acres? hold or fold?

I'm holding. With Lloyd, McDonuts, Langford and Macrae all just about fully mooed, he won't be my highest priority for a few weeks.

 

[Gribnoor]

Has Cotchin being confirmed as an out for this weekend? Going to struggle to field 18 with Roughy out, and might still be able to only field 17 using all three trades...
Wait until teams named and assess options...

 

[sirlothie]

All depends on Fasolo, if he plays he stays. Already done JKH > Cameron, holding Polec and Crouch 1 more week to go to Selwood, Shenton. If Fasolo is out, I will get Boomer but otherwise I will use just 1 trade and let my cows keep mooing. Have Acres but he's almost not worth a trade for the amount of cash you make.

Langford, Cutler, S. Lloyd, McDonough, Ambrose will all be far juicier in coming weeks and when they go my team will be complete. Rather keep Acres trade up my sleeve just in case as when all my upgrades and downgrades are done I'll only have 6 trades to take me home.

 

[karaoke]

Tearing my hair out over Sam Gibson ATM. Have had him in and out 6 times already this week. FWIW, care mostly about leagues.

tl;dr is Macrae -> Gibson too sideways?

On the plus side:

* Can set and forget for $75-100K less than some more inconsistent premos, but with probably a bit less overall scoring.
* Definitely stepped up from last season and represents value -- is averaging 6 disposals a game more than last year with fewer clangers (27.4 @74.4%) and twice as many tackles.
* His game lends itself to consistent scoring - running machine, natural accumulator, gets better as the game goes on and he just blows opponents up.
* The same week I declared him a 90-120 player who will never post game-breaking scores, pulls out a 149. LOL me.
* North's post-bye draw, especially the last 4 weeks.
* POD factor

On the minus:

* Not really a proper premium?
* The game vs Brisbane was over as a contest by quarter time, so scoring favoured accumulators rather than game-winning heroics thus making the 149 an aberration.
* Getting him means culling Macrae, Polec or Tyson, none of which appeals very much. Macrae is only 6 points less on total than Gibbo, but more likely to tail off as the season goes on I would expect.
* LOL Norf

Is my vision clouded by my Norf Goggles(tm)? Breakeven of 61 suggests this is the week to get him, or do I save the trade and keep him in the mix for finals fine-tuning or injuries to premos? If I hold off can get by with 1 trade this week and have 15 left for the run home.

If it were me, I would be waiting for next week to look at a Barlow or Steven, FWIW.

Just that Gibson really hasn't had a full season to base an accurate assessment of - could go either way for you.

Did you want to be 'safe' or were you prepared to risk it?

 

[Krujan]

Tearing my hair out over Sam Gibson ATM. Have had him in and out 6 times already this week. FWIW, care mostly about leagues.

tl;dr is Macrae -> Gibson too sideways?

On the plus side:

* Can set and forget for $75-100K less than some more inconsistent premos, but with probably a bit less overall scoring.
* Definitely stepped up from last season and represents value -- is averaging 6 disposals a game more than last year with fewer clangers (27.4 @74.4%) and twice as many tackles.
* His game lends itself to consistent scoring - running machine, natural accumulator, gets better as the game goes on and he just blows opponents up.
* The same week I declared him a 90-120 player who will never post game-breaking scores, pulls out a 149. LOL me.
* North's post-bye draw, especially the last 4 weeks.
* POD factor

On the minus:

* Not really a proper premium?
* The game vs Brisbane was over as a contest by quarter time, so scoring favoured accumulators rather than game-winning heroics thus making the 149 an aberration.
* Getting him means culling Macrae, Polec or Tyson, none of which appeals very much. Macrae is only 6 points less on total than Gibbo, but more likely to tail off as the season goes on I would expect.
* LOL Norf

Is my vision clouded by my Norf Goggles(tm)? Breakeven of 61 suggests this is the week to get him, or do I save the trade and keep him in the mix for finals fine-tuning or injuries to premos? If I hold off can get by with 1 trade this week and have 15 left for the run home.

I think you're letting your 1) North bias & 2) 1 monster score in the last game cloud your judgment IMHO.

McRae 103 average - 472k Vs Gibson 103 average - 527k

Let's look at the facts. Before last weeks 149 points against the 18th ranked team (Brissy) Gibson was averaging only 96 which was also his season high average. Personally, I think a 96 average is a closer reflection on Gibson's actual worth as a SC player. Don't get me wrong, he's a solid player who's having a good season, is a natural leader, a good runner and one of the fittest players in the league, but he lacks the inside game and polish with his disposals (at least compared to McRae's) to make him a SC super premo, regardless of North's soft draw.

McRae on the other hand has averaged 103 or higher all season and is several classes above Gibson in ability. Whilst his last 3 games have been below par to that of his 1st 5 games, he was still solid and not too far away from tonning up in all 3 games. I see way more upside with McRae as he could easily go 105+ for the rest of the year, especially after a weeks break.

Paying an extra 55k for a player who IMHO will average 5-10 ppg less than the player you're wanting to trade out is not only sideways, but in fact a downgrade.

 

[SnappyHappy]

How's this for a plan? Will give me 19 playing if I hold Crouch till next week, this week:
Acres > Hartung
Georgiou > Jaensch
Dunstan > Cameron

Next week:
Langford > Bews
Crouch > Fyfe

 

[RobZombie]

I think you're letting your 1) North bias & 2) 1 monster score in the last game cloud your judgment IMHO.

McRae 103 average - 472k Vs Gibson 103 average - 527k

Let's look at the facts. Before last weeks 149 points against the 18th ranked team (Brissy) Gibson was averaging only 96 which was also his season high average. Personally, I think a 96 average is a closer reflection on Gibson's actual worth as a SC player. Don't get me wrong, he's a solid player who's having a good season, is a natural leader, a good runner and one of the fittest players in the league, but he lacks the inside game and polish with his disposals (at least compared to McRae's) to make him a SC super premo, regardless of North's soft draw.

McRae on the other hand has averaged 103 or higher all season and is several classes above Gibson in ability. Whilst his last 3 games have been below par to that of his 1st 5 games, he was still solid and not too far away from tonning up in all 3 games. I see way more upside with McRae as he could easily go 105+ for the rest of the year, especially after a weeks break.

Paying an extra 55k for a player who IMHO will average 5-10 ppg less than the player you're wanting to trade out is not only sideways, but in fact a downgrade.

Thanks, I needed someone to talk me down.

Another way of looking at the outlier games is to take both players' highest and lowest out. That leaves Macrae at 101.5 and Gibson at 105.7. Still not enough to make the trade at $50K.

I still feel like as a 27-yo mature super-fit bloke he's more likely to finish strongly than a 2nd year kid, but better to reassess that at luxury trade time.

 

[Krujan]

Thanks, I needed someone to talk me down.

Another way of looking at the outlier games is to take both players' highest and lowest out. That leaves Macrae at 101.5 and Gibson at 105.7. Still not enough to make the trade at $50K.

I still feel like as a 27-yo mature super-fit bloke he's more likely to finish strongly than a 2nd year kid, but better to reassess that at luxury trade time.

That stat is misleading as well due to the 149 Gibson score. McRae's standard deviation is much lower than Gibsons.

Gibson (and McRae for that matter) are both better options for DT/AF as they are mostly outside link up players. McRae will be a better SC option purely due to his superior foot skills.

Oh and are you aware that this is the 2nd time this year I've had to talk you down from picking a North "break-out' player? IIRC I argued with you over several posts during pre-season when you suggested that Atley was going to be a "premo" this year, because he was going to play midfield blah blah

 

[Spitter9]

Thanks, I needed someone to talk me down.

Another way of looking at the outlier games is to take both players' highest and lowest out. That leaves Macrae at 101.5 and Gibson at 105.7. Still not enough to make the trade at $50K.

I still feel like as a 27-yo mature super-fit bloke he's more likely to finish strongly than a 2nd year kid, but better to reassess that at luxury trade time.

if you are looking at a POD player mate i would look at Dal Santo and Barlow. Both proven scorers and both with easy runs home for the rest of the season

 

[Skystyler]

Lennon plays for Richmond, so it won't be a donut.

no kidding?

I only have 16 atm. Lennon makes 17.

and I dont know why you think I'd have Acres in my team Toxic. I'm not a total dweeb. Nor am I in a position to be swapping fwds into the midfield.

I just need a good cheap mid downgrade target. Is that too much to ask?

 

[karaoke]

That stat is misleading as well due to the 149 Gibson score. McRae's standard deviation is much lower than Gibsons.

Gibson (and McRae for that matter) are both better options for DT/AF as they are mostly outside link up players. McRae will be a better SC option purely due to his superior foot skills.

Oh and are you aware that this is the 2nd time this year I've had to talk you down from picking a North "break-out' player? IIRC I argued with you over several posts during pre-season when you suggested that Atley was going to be a "premo" this year, because he was going to play midfield blah blah

He means like this;

Sam Gibson-


& Jackson Macrae-

This just removes the outlier scores to try & create a better picture of what they have done.

It's more the removal of the 42 which impacts on that average comparison for Gibson.

But 6 games isn't much of a sample to work with though.

 

[Krujan]

no kidding?

I only have 16 atm. Lennon makes 17.

and I dont know why you think I'd have Acres in my team Toxic. I'm not a total dweeb. Nor am I in a position to be swapping fwds into the midfield.

I just need a good cheap mid downgrade target. Is that too much to ask?

So you're saying that everyone who traded in Acres is a total dweeb?

Apart from Hartung who could be dropped or if he isn't prime green vest candidate there aren't any decent mid down grade options this week. (selections pending of course)


And why can't you swap a forward into your midfield for a week at least? Trade in a forward rookie who is playing this week like Lennon or Cameron as your downgrade and move Danger to the mids for a week or 2 won't ****ing kill you!

Toxic's suggestion was probably the best downgrade options for you this week, yet you thanked him by getting all rude and snooty with your response.

 

[Krujan]

He means like this;

Sam Gibson-
View attachment 57970

& Jackson Macrae-
View attachment 57971
This just removes the outlier scores to try & create a better picture of what they have done.

It's more the removal of the 42 which impacts on that average comparison for Gibson.

But 6 games isn't much of a sample to work with though.

I know what he meant. Look at the differences in their 8 rounds of standard deviation to understand my point.

 

[Krujan]

He means like this;

Sam Gibson-
View attachment 57970

& Jackson Macrae-
View attachment 57971
This just removes the outlier scores to try & create a better picture of what they have done.

It's more the removal of the 42 which impacts on that average comparison for Gibson.

But 6 games isn't much of a sample to work with though.

Hmm looking at that again, Gibsons numbers are pretty impressive. Why was he sub in Rd 1?

 

[karaoke]

Hmm looking at that again, Gibsons numbers are pretty impressive. Why was he sub in Rd 1?

I don't know if he was? RobZombie

 

[Krujan]

I don't know if he was? RobZombie

IIRC he wore the green vest in Rd 1 and came on very late.