Preview Round 10: Western Bulldogs vs St.Kilda - Etihad Stadium (A), Saturday 27 May 2017, 1:45pm AEST

[VDS66]

Every premier has luck on their side.

Yeah like a goal umpire with worse eyesight than Stevie Wonder, and a bouncing sherrin with a Milne aversion syndrome...

 

[Diehard Saint]

Very easily. I will preface this by saying I was actually going for the Dogs in GF last year so this is not sour grapes. I was wrapped that the Doggies snagged one, I can't stand the Swans. That being said, I think there is a pretty strong argument there was a solid dose of luck with how things unfolded last year:

1. A premiership always has an element of luck if you are unable to beat other sides that participate in a finals series. Sydney, GWS, Hawthorn (last year) & Geelong had all shown they were capable of beating ALL other top 8 sides. The Dogs have an absolute bogey side in the Cats, literally would have been no chance had they played them.

2. A percentage of 115% was a fair indication of where they were at. Good side, but not a great side. Very unusual to win a flag with a percentage that low. In 2012 we finished with a percentage as high as 120% from memory and didn't even make finals. They can claim injuries blah blah, but I would argue their injuries were no worse than other flag sides have had to deal with.

3. Great effort to beat GWS, that can't be disputed. Are they a better side than GWS though? I am not convinced. They played a young side in their first ever prelim, who had just obliterated Sydney 2 weeks earlier. It was assumed they were a walk up start for the GF, not a good head space for a young group to be in. If they beat them again in finals this year, I will concede they are much better than I thought. I don't see it happening personally.

4. As I said earlier, I was going for the Dogs GF day but that was comfortably the biggest bum reaming from the umps on a GF day for a long time. Normally the umpiring does not play a part GF day, but last year. Wowee. Watched the game at a BBQ where 2 fanatical Doggies supporters mates were present, and even they were gobsmacked. They were loving every minute of it, some real game changing calls went there way.

5. What are the chances Tom Boyd plays like that on GF day? Seriously 5%, maybe 10%? I would stand corrected if he had come out this year and carried on his form, like Hawkins did after the 2011 breakout GF. However, this has most definitely not happened. Straight back to being captain concrete hands.

6. Finally, the Doggies remind me of us a bit in 2010 heading into 2011. FWIW, I think we would have been pretty lucky to win in 2010 as well (definitely not 2009 when we deserved it). The game plan relies on unrelenting pressure to win, but it is no longer resulting in blowouts. It should concern Dogs that they are not beating anybody comfortably. They have to slog out almost every game in order to get the win. All of the good premiership sides of the 21st century had the ability to destroy teams. (Hawks, Swans, Cats, WC, Port, Brisbane, Essendon in 2000). Dogs just are not on that level.

At the end of the day though if you are Dogs supporter, who really cares? You won, lucky or not, you are still the premier. However, the relevance for this week though, is I am the most confident I have been playing the reigning champ since we played Hawks in 2009. Not saying we definitely win, because we are not that good yet, but I don't buy that the Dogs are anything more than a mid table team either. Should be a very good game.

A point you didn't mention was the extra week's rest with the bye which allowed a number of their injured players to get back and took away the advantage of the rest for the top 4 teams only.
Even Gill McG mentioned that it was very helpful for them. I think that played a very big part as well.

 

[Fehring]

Savage on the wing. DMac a way better defender.

The club and DMac like half back better so I suggest he stays there. Sav will give us drive from the wing.

Makes sense, I like Dmac way better in the defensive 50. Keen to see how Sav responds after a short stint in the 2s.

Dmac in defensive 50 all day with that shoddy kicking style. DO YOU PEOPLE WANT ME TO HAVE A HEART ATTACK?! ARE YOU THAT CRUEL?!

 

[SaintsSeptember]

A point you didn't mention was the extra week's rest with the bye which allowed a number of their injured players to get back and took away the advantage of the rest for the top 4 teams only.
Even Gill McG mentioned that it was very helpful for them. I think that played a very big part as well.

They used to say it was impossible for the 7th and 8th to make it to the grand final.
The extra week helped, but the main difference is that in previous years the strength of the top sides was far greater than those making up numbers in the 8.
The way things are now the teams are really well balanced and nearly any team can beat nearly any other on the right day.

 

[Roadto2018]

Bloody Saturday afternoon games, hopefully I come off the footy field to good news

 

[nitewalker13]

I think this game will be a stepping stone for paddy's career.

He is going to be our prime target in our forward 50.

He will make sure to make most out of this opportunity and he will kick atleast 3 goals.

Go Saints!!

 

[Joffaboy]

Why are you putting words in my mouth?

I'm not saying they didn't deserve it because they absolutely did.

I also didn't say they are overrated.

I simply said they were lucky and you've just agreed with me in your post?

They are my words not yours.

Settle pettle

 

[Cornish]

I am hoping this is Paddy Wack the mattress guts breakout game, looking forward to this, he has pretty much carte blanche of the forward line, so lets do it big fella!!!

 

[boydee]

Very easily. I will preface this by saying I was actually going for the Dogs in GF last year so this is not sour grapes. I was wrapped that the Doggies snagged one, I can't stand the Swans. That being said, I think there is a pretty strong argument there was a solid dose of luck with how things unfolded last year:

1. A premiership always has an element of luck if you are unable to beat other sides that participate in a finals series. Sydney, GWS, Hawthorn (last year) & Geelong had all shown they were capable of beating ALL other top 8 sides. The Dogs have an absolute bogey side in the Cats, literally would have been no chance had they played them.

2. A percentage of 115% was a fair indication of where they were at. Good side, but not a great side. Very unusual to win a flag with a percentage that low. In 2012 we finished with a percentage as high as 120% from memory and didn't even make finals. They can claim injuries blah blah, but I would argue their injuries were no worse than other flag sides have had to deal with.

3. Great effort to beat GWS, that can't be disputed. Are they a better side than GWS though? I am not convinced. They played a young side in their first ever prelim, who had just obliterated Sydney 2 weeks earlier. It was assumed they were a walk up start for the GF, not a good head space for a young group to be in. If they beat them again in finals this year, I will concede they are much better than I thought. I don't see it happening personally.

4. As I said earlier, I was going for the Dogs GF day but that was comfortably the biggest bum reaming from the umps on a GF day for a long time. Normally the umpiring does not play a part GF day, but last year. Wowee. Watched the game at a BBQ where 2 fanatical Doggies supporters mates were present, and even they were gobsmacked. They were loving every minute of it, some real game changing calls went there way.

5. What are the chances Tom Boyd plays like that on GF day? Seriously 5%, maybe 10%? I would stand corrected if he had come out this year and carried on his form, like Hawkins did after the 2011 breakout GF. However, this has most definitely not happened. Straight back to being captain concrete hands.

6. Finally, the Doggies remind me of us a bit in 2010 heading into 2011. FWIW, I think we would have been pretty lucky to win in 2010 as well (definitely not 2009 when we deserved it). The game plan relies on unrelenting pressure to win, but it is no longer resulting in blowouts. It should concern Dogs that they are not beating anybody comfortably. They have to slog out almost every game in order to get the win. All of the good premiership sides of the 21st century had the ability to destroy teams. (Hawks, Swans, Cats, WC, Port, Brisbane, Essendon in 2000). Dogs just are not on that level.

At the end of the day though if you are Dogs supporter, who really cares? You won, lucky or not, you are still the premier. However, the relevance for this week though, is I am the most confident I have been playing the reigning champ since we played Hawks in 2009. Not saying we definitely win, because we are not that good yet, but I don't buy that the Dogs are anything more than a mid table team either. Should be a very good game.

You come up with some interesting points, but every team needs some element of luck to win a flag and you could come up with the opposite to what you say.
1. You say they would not have beaten Geelong in finals but it is pure speculation. Geelong were not good enough to make the GF. End of story. The dogs were.
2. So what? They still won 15 games in a year where they were cruelled more by injury than any other side in the eight. I disagree that other sides were affected just as much by injuries as what they were.
3. They beat GWS in Sydney. What more do you want? You can say GWS were not in the right head space, but how do you know that?
4. I disagree. A couple of decisions went the dogs way but Sydney still had every chance to win the game. The umpiring had nothing to do with the result.
5. Tom Boyd played the game of his life on GF day. He is still only 21 years old. I would say he has every chance to do that again. I am not saying Boyd will become a champion, but he will be a very, very, good player.
6. The competition is so even now it is very difficult to destroy sides. As the reigning premiers, everyone wants to knock you off and will hit you with the kitchen sink each week.
I do not know how you think they had more luck than what any other team that has won a flag has had.

 

[TheEnsign]

Hopefully this is the game that sets up Sinclair2McCartin for the next ~8 - 10 years.

 

[PrinceofSeaford]

They are my words not yours.

Settle pettle

So you're saying they are overrated? Lol

 

[gringo2011]

You come up with some interesting points, but every team needs some element of luck to win a flag and you could come up with the opposite to what you say.
1. You say they would not have beaten Geelong in finals but it is pure speculation. Geelong were not good enough to make the GF. End of story. The dogs were.
2. So what? They still won 15 games in a year where they were cruelled more by injury than any other side in the eight. I disagree that other sides were affected just as much by injuries as what they were.
3. They beat GWS in Sydney. What more do you want? You can say GWS were not in the right head space, but how do you know that?
4. I disagree. A couple of decisions went the dogs way but Sydney still had every chance to win the game. The umpiring had nothing to do with the result.
5. Tom Boyd played the game of his life on GF day. He is still only 21 years old. I would say he has every chance to do that again. I am not saying Boyd will become a champion, but he will be a very, very, good player.
6. The competition is so even now it is very difficult to destroy sides. As the reigning premiers, everyone wants to knock you off and will hit you with the kitchen sink each week.
I do not know how you think they had more luck than what any other team that has won a flag has had.

You were still lucky, if Callan Ward hadn't gone down with concussion, if you hadn't been armchaired by umpires in Perth..well and the GF for that matter. You had luck with the week off for the first time allowing you to get back a swarm of players who made a huge difference. You were about the 7th best team in the home and away but you did the job when it mattered. Good luck to you but you were heaps lucky.

 

[pebblesofsand]

You come up with some interesting points, but every team needs some element of luck to win a flag and you could come up with the opposite to what you say.
1. You say they would not have beaten Geelong in finals but it is pure speculation. Geelong were not good enough to make the GF. End of story. The dogs were.
2. So what? They still won 15 games in a year where they were cruelled more by injury than any other side in the eight. I disagree that other sides were affected just as much by injuries as what they were.
3. They beat GWS in Sydney. What more do you want? You can say GWS were not in the right head space, but how do you know that?
4. I disagree. A couple of decisions went the dogs way but Sydney still had every chance to win the game. The umpiring had nothing to do with the result.
5. Tom Boyd played the game of his life on GF day. He is still only 21 years old. I would say he has every chance to do that again. I am not saying Boyd will become a champion, but he will be a very, very, good player.
6. The competition is so even now it is very difficult to destroy sides. As the reigning premiers, everyone wants to knock you off and will hit you with the kitchen sink each week.
I do not know how you think they had more luck than what any other team that has won a flag has had.

If the infamous Scarlett "toe poke of the century" or the "Milney bounce" had gone the other way, the Saints would have had two extra flags and there's no Saints supporter who'd be claiming we were "lucky"!!!

Put simply - it was a brilliant performance by the Doggies to win the flag from seventh position last year.

As for tomorrow - well I think your teams crap, Boyd is a joke, Tim English is a stick figure and Johannisen needs to see a hairdresser!!!

 

[Sab22]

Bont to bow down to Billings after the game.

 

[aussierulesrules]

The Doggies certainly had a lot of things fall into place, but you make your own luck.

 

[pluggeranddoc]

The Doggies certainly had a lot of things fall into place, but you make your own luck.

"THE BRADBURIES"

 

[VDS66]

The Doggies certainly had a lot of things fall into place, but you make your own luck.

Exactly. We kicked ourselves out of 09.

 

[saintbill]

You come up with some interesting points, but every team needs some element of luck to win a flag and you could come up with the opposite to what you say.
1. You say they would not have beaten Geelong in finals but it is pure speculation. Geelong were not good enough to make the GF. End of story. The dogs were.
2. So what? They still won 15 games in a year where they were cruelled more by injury than any other side in the eight. I disagree that other sides were affected just as much by injuries as what they were.
3. They beat GWS in Sydney. What more do you want? You can say GWS were not in the right head space, but how do you know that?
4. I disagree. A couple of decisions went the dogs way but Sydney still had every chance to win the game. The umpiring had nothing to do with the result.
5. Tom Boyd played the game of his life on GF day. He is still only 21 years old. I would say he has every chance to do that again. I am not saying Boyd will become a champion, but he will be a very, very, good player.
6. The competition is so even now it is very difficult to destroy sides. As the reigning premiers, everyone wants to knock you off and will hit you with the kitchen sink each week.
I do not know how you think they had more luck than what any other team that has won a flag has had.

Fair enough, u can mount an argument for these points either way. From an outsider, the main point I am trying to make is that u guys feel like the most beatable reigning premier since the Hawks 08.

I am not saying that to disrespect the Dogs, u guys got it done when it counted. Maybe this is just the new AFL and we have a more even comp now. It just seems unusual to be a mid tabled team and feel like a good chance against a reigning premier. It has been a while since I rated us any chance whatsoever against last year's champion.

 

[Rors]

Let's just remember that Paddy will be lining up on the reigning Premiership FB in Easton Wood - who is no mug. Not to mention that back six of theirs is a solid wall of defence when they get their collectives into gear.
Should be a cracking game, especially interested in the micro game of how Paddy performs without Roo running straight across his line (sorry Roo, I love you, but for the love all that is good, please stop cutting off our forwards when they lead at the kicker!)
Saints by 24
Steven to get full coaches points

Rofl... Easton Wood is not a Full Back, he's a intercept marking 3rd 'tall' that isn't even tall. Bloke is the same height as Shane Savage

Not sure how many Bulldogs games you've watched but Fletcher Roberts is their full back

 

[MrFoster]

Fair enough, u can mount an argument for these points either way. From an outsider, the main point I am trying to make is that u guys feel like the most beatable reigning premier since the Hawks 08.

I am not saying that to disrespect the Dogs, u guys got it done when it counted. Maybe this is just the new AFL and we have a more even comp now. It just seems unusual to be a mid tabled team and feel like a good chance against a reigning premier. It has been a while since I rated us any chance whatsoever against last year's champion.

Dogs winning last year is an anomaly, don't expect that to happen ofte

dogs are a young team, so they will be naturally inconsistent during the normal season, hence the 8th finish. But their game plan suited the high pressure/contesting style of the finals and their team executed it to perfection when it counted the most, which is not easy for such an experienced/young team.

I think that's why it's so surprising that they won.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Rofl... Easton Wood is not a Full Back, he's a intercept marking 3rd 'tall' that isn't even tall. Bloke is the same height as Shane Savage

Not sure how many Bulldogs games you've watched but Fletcher Roberts is their full back

Couldn't believe it when I checked Season Woods height - he's listed at 187 cm. Amazing!!!!!

On K107 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Rors]

Couldn't believe it when I checked Season Woods height - he's listed at 187 cm. Amazing!!!!!

On K107 using BigFooty.com mobile app

186cm on the site I looked at

 

[St Kilda Death]

Exactly. We kicked ourselves out of 09.

Mods ban him

 

[Joffaboy]

So you're saying they are overrated? Lol

Dont put words in my mouth

 

[SAINTsincebirth]

Who does carlisle and brown play on? dogs have a really small forward line

Jake should get moved forward, just to stretch the doggies defence.