Autopsy Round 11 vs Western Bulldogs @ TIO Stadium, Darwin - 27/05/23 - 7:25pm

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WE HAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MIDFIELD MORE

Here are the teams the Suns have lost to and their midfielders with CBAs over 70% on average

Gold Coast – Rowell 84% Anderson 7% Miller/Swallow 78% (Swallow only since Miller injured)

Brisbane – Neale Dunkley

Essendon – Parish

Fremantle – Serong Brayshaw

Melbourne – Oliver

St Kilda – Crouch Steele

Sydney – Parker

WB - Bont, Libba

The template should be something like

Rowell 85%
Anderson 75%
Swallow 65%
Humphrey 40%
Davies 25%
Fiorini 10%
 

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Fiorini has been moved to the wing again in recent weeks where he isn't really suited but has been doing an ok job. Agree that I think it's time we throw a bit more responsibility to Davies and Humphrey. Davies could really benefit from playing on someone like bontempelli this week. Maybe Anderson a bit more time on the wing seeing we haven't really picked specialist wings. Or maybe throw a curvball and play Powell on the bont in the middle.
 
Anderson and Swallow need some time forward because they can both find the middle sticks. I would give Powell and Atkins stints on the wing
 
WE HAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MIDFIELD MORE

Here are the teams the Suns have lost to and their midfielders with CBAs over 70% on average

Gold Coast – Rowell 84% Anderson 7% Miller/Swallow 78% (Swallow only since Miller injured)

Brisbane – Neale Dunkley

Essendon – Parish

Fremantle – Serong Brayshaw

Melbourne – Oliver

St Kilda – Crouch Steele

Sydney – Parker

WB - Bont, Libba

The template should be something like

Rowell 85%
Anderson 75%
Swallow 65%
Humphrey 40%
Davies 25%
Fiorini 10%
Screen Shot 2023-05-26 at 8.13.09 pm.png
 
Now that Carlton are staying where they were on the ladder before this round, I had a look at the teams directly above us on the ladder and there's a reasonable chance we'll be able to end this round equal with a top 8 team. Geelong (7) play GWS (15), Adelaide (8th) play Brisbane (2), Essendon (9) play West Coast (18) and Fremantle (10) play Melbourne (4). You'd expect Adelaide and Fremantle to lose to those top 4 teams and then we'd just need either Geelong to lose to GWS or Essendon to lose to West Coast. If that happens and we beat the Bulldogs then we'll end the round tied 7th or 8th.

I hope our players watched what happened to Carlton tonight and realise we just have to win this Bulldogs game if we want to continue to stay in the finals race.
 
Now that Carlton are staying where they were on the ladder before this round, I had a look at the teams directly above us on the ladder and there's a reasonable chance we'll be able to end this round equal with a top 8 team. Geelong (7) play GWS (15), Adelaide (8th) play Brisbane (2), Essendon (9) play West Coast (18) and Fremantle (10) play Melbourne (4). You'd expect Adelaide and Fremantle to lose to those top 4 teams and then we'd just need either Geelong to lose to GWS or Essendon to lose to West Coast. If that happens and we beat the Bulldogs then we'll end the round tied 7th or 8th.

I hope our players watched what happened to Carlton tonight and realise we just have to win this Bulldogs game if we want to continue to stay in the finals race.

reasonable chance?

bookies have a Suns Giants double at 15-1 and a Suns West Coast double at 20-1. I wouldn’t place either of those bets. I do appreciate the optimism though. Better than a lot of the negativity that gets slung around here.
 
Interesting to see what we do about the bont, head to head with Anderson? Does Swallow or Davies go to him, or a combination of Swallow and Davies? He's probably the best player in the comp, how we try to stop him will be fascinating. I think our bottom 5 is better than theirs, but their top 5 might be better than ours. It's a coin flip
 
not expecting a win but don’t think we’re without a chance.
In the end probably not enough midfield power. I’d put Davies on Bont.

Looking for the NT boys to have a big day. Would love for Mally and Joel to kick 5 between them.

Also looking for luko to kick on from his decent start to the year. What does he need to do to turn a promising year into a good season? Kick another 20+ goals for the season probably. Will only get there if he is hitting the scoreboard every game.
 
Where is Jeffrey likely to play guys?

I've heard he's been playing across half back in the VFL... Is he likely to remain in that role?

Hard to tell. Dew is deliberately trying to play silly buggers about it. Bit weird to run him down back for weeks then fling him up forward in AFL when he was struggling before he was dropped. Reckon he plays down back as a distributor with the potential to be flicked forward as a game breaker.

It is Darwin though and he absolutely loves kicking snags at TIO so that also could be the reason he plays forward if so. The Darwin lads will be playing at 120% tonight.
 

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reasonable chance?

bookies have a Suns Giants double at 15-1 and a Suns West Coast double at 20-1. I wouldn’t place either of those bets. I do appreciate the optimism though. Better than a lot of the negativity that gets slung around here.
See how we go. The Giants are essentially playing for their season today and still seem capable of pulling off upsets on their day. Plus, Geelong have lost two in a row so you never know in that one but Geelong at home is always a tough ask. West Coast have some big ins tonight with Yeo, Hurn and Barrass all returning and Essendon have lost four of their last five games, with their sole win coming last week against the struggling Tigers by one point. So again, you never know given it's being played in Perth. I almost want to say West Coast have a better chance of winning than GWS but the Eagles are a bit of a train wreck at the moment so I have no confidence in that. We'd just need one of those results to fall our way in order to finish the round equal with a top 8 spot.

Ultimately, as long as we beat the Bulldogs then we're guaranteed to stay within one win of the top 8 and that's all we can control for now. If we continue to take care of business on our end then we'll eventually get our chance.
 
See how we go. The Giants are essentially playing for their season today and still seem capable of pulling off upsets on their day. Plus, Geelong have lost two in a row so you never know in that one but Geelong at home is always a tough ask. West Coast have some big ins tonight with Yeo, Hurn and Barrass all returning and Essendon have lost four of their last five games, with their sole win coming last week against the struggling Tigers by one point. So again, you never know given it's being played in Perth. I almost want to say West Coast have a better chance of winning than GWS but the Eagles are a bit of a train wreck at the moment so I have no confidence in that. We'd just need one of those results to fall our way in order to finish the round equal with a top 8 spot.

Ultimately, as long as we beat the Bulldogs then we're guaranteed to stay within one win of the top 8 and that's all we can control for now. If we continue to take care of business on our end then we'll eventually get our chance.
I love how positive you are in the face of what appear to be overwhelming odds against us.
But you are 100% correct, control what we can and right now that's beating the Dogs.
Unfortunately the Dogs have a say as well....
Look out top 8, here we come
 
No Farrar in the VFL line up so I'm guessing he'll be the sub.

I love how positive you are in the face of what appear to be overwhelming odds against us.
But you are 100% correct, control what we can and right now that's beating the Dogs.
Unfortunately the Dogs have a say as well....
Look out top 8, here we come
We've seen this happen a few times over the last 12 months. I remember our fanbase was feeling pretty down and negative after the first Collingwood game last year and again this year after the St Kilda game but then we went on a good run of games to keep our season alive. I look at tonight's game as an opportunity, rather than a challenge.
 
The VFL commentator just confirmed the conditions in Darwin are currently slippery and you'd imagine it'll be more slippery at night. Hopefully it suits us!

Would love if someone at tio tonight tell us if dogs are struggling in the warm up, I’m super tempted to tip us.

Holmans 100th, Darwin, dewy abuse this week.

Surely
 
No Farrar in the VFL line up so I'm guessing he'll be the sub.


We've seen this happen a few times over the last 12 months. I remember our fanbase was feeling pretty down and negative after the first Collingwood game last year and again this year after the St Kilda game but then we went on a good run of games to keep our season alive. I look at tonight's game as an opportunity, rather than a challenge.
But we still didn't make finals last year. The game against Collingwood was a missed opportunity as was the Melbourne game a few weeks ago.

At the end of the day, all we need to do is win 12/13 games and we play finals nothing else around us matters. We'll naturally push teams down if we win. Tonight and next week are vital to getting there otherwise it'll turn into another 8-10 win season and finals (almost certainly) over.
 
But we still didn't make finals last year. The game against Collingwood was a missed opportunity as was the Melbourne game a few weeks ago.
Yes but we had our chances in the final third of the season last year with games against Port, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn. I think that's really all you can do when you're trying to jump from the middle 6 of the ladder into the top 6-8 because we know we're not a top 4 team but we MIGHT be a 5-8th team so we're going to have weeks where it's a struggle against top 4 opposition like Brisbane/Melbourne and then we'll have other weeks that are strong against bottom 4 opposition like West Coast/North. Ultimately it's the opposition in the 6-12 range on the ladder that we need to be beating if we want to play finals and the Bulldogs are exactly that, as are Adelaide next week and Carlton the following week. Hence the reason the next 2-3 weeks are so important for us.
 

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Autopsy Round 11 vs Western Bulldogs @ TIO Stadium, Darwin - 27/05/23 - 7:25pm

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