2016 was the year of the "Cinderella Story" in global sport. The year of status quo's being challenged, and droughts being broken.
First, who can forget the story of Leicester City. After spending most of the previous season fighting to escape Premier League relegation, they started the season with Championship odds of 5001:1. Claudio Raineri lead Leicester to their first top flight title in their 132 years of existence, beating Premier League giants Arsenal, as well as smaller clubs like Tottenham Hotspur, to the title.
Then, we saw LeBron James and Kyrie Irving drag the Cavaliers kicking and screaming to their first NBA Championship, after becoming the first team in NBA history to win a finals series from 3-1 down. The Cavs found themselves 3-1 down on the road to the defending champions, Steph Curry's Golden State Warriors. They rallied, and won the last 4 games to bring Cleveland their first ring.
Then, we saw the Chicago Cubs bring home their first World Series in over 100 years, as they defeated the Cleveland Indians in a 7 game series which saw the Cubs crowned World Champions for the first time since 1908.
And the AFL saw all this and thought to themselves "You know what? We could use one of those as well"
And so, the wheels were set in motion.
Week one of finals, 2016. The West Coast Eagles play host to the Western Bulldogs in a sudden death Elimination Final at Subiaco Oval. The Eagles are flying, they're the form side of the competition, fresh off clutch road wins and a home win over Premiers Hawthorn. The Dogs, on the other hand, hobbled over the line into finals, fresh off a 20 point loss to Fremantle.
The game was played on a Thursday, meaning the Dogs would've been fresh off a 4 day break, in Perth, against the league's form side.
However, the AFL decided to introduce a pre-finals bye that literally no one asked for. This gives the Dogs a week to kick back in Melbourne and rest their legs, and also allows them to bring in not one, not two, not even three, but FIVE of their best players off the injury list. As a result, the Dogs go on to absolutely steam-roll the Eagles by 47 points.
The Dogs continued to throw themselves (and the footy, the Bulldogs haven't completed a legal handpass in 5 years) through the ringer and eventually found themselves at the big dance against our old enemy, the Swans.
Following a free-kick count of 20-8, the most lopsided in Grand Final history, The Dogs emerged victorious, and the AFL had successfully manufactured their own Cinderella Story, as well as allowed Dan Hannebery's knee to be destoryed without punishment.
Am I bitter? Absolutely. Is this a one-eyed opinion? Without question, but we're here for a laugh, aren't we?
Right, rant over. Onto the game in question.
The Dogs are hard to read, they seem to be in everyone's top 4 prediction season after season, but wind up either missing finals all together or just scraping into the 8. Last week, they looked the goods against a weak Collingwood side. It's hard to tell if they looked good, or if Collingwood looked awful.
Their box score made many fantasy coaches (myself included) very happy. They had a whopping EIGHT players score over 100 ranking points last week, as well as Alex Keath only just missing out with 96.
They had 4 mids with over 30 touches, as they won the disposal count by a whopping 151 disposals (315-466). Despite Collingwood dominating the hitouts, the Dogs won the ball out of the middle with 38 clearances to the Pies 32. They were relatively clean with the ball as well, operating at 78% efficiency, as well as scoring from 45% of their 60 inside 50's.
What do all these numbers mean?
It means that despite the 16 point margin, the Dogs blew the Pies off the park. They dominated the footy all around the ground, but couldn't make the opposition pay on the scoreboard as much as they should've. They had A LOT of cheap, uncontested ball around the ground and didn't do a lot with it. They gave Collingwood death by-a-thousand-cuts.
So... how are we going to fare against the Western Accumulators?
Our game was much more hard-fought than our opponents. Disposals? We won by 9. Inside 50's? We won by 8. Hit-outs? We lost by 8. Clearances? Dead even, 30 a piece. Marks? We won by 7.
The difference?
Marks inside 50? We had 14 to their 5. Contested marks? We had 15 to their 8. Efficiency inside 50? We scored from 56% of ours, they scored from 45% of theirs.
We were challenged, and our kick-mark style combined with the experience of campaigners like McGovern, Hurn, Barrass, and Kelly stood up for us when it mattered. We have one thing that they don't: experience. Our cool, battle-worn heads emerged victorious over the young brigade last week, and I suspect we'll see the same this week.
Let them rack up their free fantasy points. The Bont may have had 28 touches, but it was at 60% efficiency, and the rest of them weren't too much better. Of the Dogs 8 players who tonned up on the fantasy board, only 2 of them operated at 80% efficiency or higher. They can have all the uncontested footy they like, because they're just going to cough it up.
I suppose it's harder to control a handpass when you're actually throwing it.
In summary: I don't like the Bulldogs.
PREDICTION: Eagles by 19 points
Best On Ground: Nic Naitanui will give Tim English a thorough education
TEAMS:
WESTERN BULLDOGS
B: B. Williams R. Gardiner C. Daniel
HB: T. Dureya A. Keath A. Treloar
C: P. Lipinski B. Smith L. Hunter
HF: B. Dale A. Naughton J. Dunkley
F: T. English J. Bruce M. Bontempelli
FOL: S. Martin J. Macrae T. Liberatore
INT: M. Wallis A. Scott L. McNeil L. Vandermeer
WEST COAST EAGLES
B: J. Rotham T. Barrass B. Sheppard
HB: T. Cole J. McGovern (c) S. Hurn
C: A. Gaff J. Redden J. Cripps
HF: D. Sheed J. Darling X. O’Neill
F: L. Ryan J. J. Kennedy O. Allen
FOL: N. Naitanui T. Kelly L. Duggan
INT: Z. Langdon N. Vardy J. Jones J. Nelson
First, who can forget the story of Leicester City. After spending most of the previous season fighting to escape Premier League relegation, they started the season with Championship odds of 5001:1. Claudio Raineri lead Leicester to their first top flight title in their 132 years of existence, beating Premier League giants Arsenal, as well as smaller clubs like Tottenham Hotspur, to the title.
Then, we saw LeBron James and Kyrie Irving drag the Cavaliers kicking and screaming to their first NBA Championship, after becoming the first team in NBA history to win a finals series from 3-1 down. The Cavs found themselves 3-1 down on the road to the defending champions, Steph Curry's Golden State Warriors. They rallied, and won the last 4 games to bring Cleveland their first ring.
Then, we saw the Chicago Cubs bring home their first World Series in over 100 years, as they defeated the Cleveland Indians in a 7 game series which saw the Cubs crowned World Champions for the first time since 1908.
And the AFL saw all this and thought to themselves "You know what? We could use one of those as well"
And so, the wheels were set in motion.
Week one of finals, 2016. The West Coast Eagles play host to the Western Bulldogs in a sudden death Elimination Final at Subiaco Oval. The Eagles are flying, they're the form side of the competition, fresh off clutch road wins and a home win over Premiers Hawthorn. The Dogs, on the other hand, hobbled over the line into finals, fresh off a 20 point loss to Fremantle.
The game was played on a Thursday, meaning the Dogs would've been fresh off a 4 day break, in Perth, against the league's form side.
However, the AFL decided to introduce a pre-finals bye that literally no one asked for. This gives the Dogs a week to kick back in Melbourne and rest their legs, and also allows them to bring in not one, not two, not even three, but FIVE of their best players off the injury list. As a result, the Dogs go on to absolutely steam-roll the Eagles by 47 points.
The Dogs continued to throw themselves (and the footy, the Bulldogs haven't completed a legal handpass in 5 years) through the ringer and eventually found themselves at the big dance against our old enemy, the Swans.
Following a free-kick count of 20-8, the most lopsided in Grand Final history, The Dogs emerged victorious, and the AFL had successfully manufactured their own Cinderella Story, as well as allowed Dan Hannebery's knee to be destoryed without punishment.
Am I bitter? Absolutely. Is this a one-eyed opinion? Without question, but we're here for a laugh, aren't we?
Right, rant over. Onto the game in question.
The Dogs are hard to read, they seem to be in everyone's top 4 prediction season after season, but wind up either missing finals all together or just scraping into the 8. Last week, they looked the goods against a weak Collingwood side. It's hard to tell if they looked good, or if Collingwood looked awful.
Their box score made many fantasy coaches (myself included) very happy. They had a whopping EIGHT players score over 100 ranking points last week, as well as Alex Keath only just missing out with 96.
They had 4 mids with over 30 touches, as they won the disposal count by a whopping 151 disposals (315-466). Despite Collingwood dominating the hitouts, the Dogs won the ball out of the middle with 38 clearances to the Pies 32. They were relatively clean with the ball as well, operating at 78% efficiency, as well as scoring from 45% of their 60 inside 50's.
What do all these numbers mean?
It means that despite the 16 point margin, the Dogs blew the Pies off the park. They dominated the footy all around the ground, but couldn't make the opposition pay on the scoreboard as much as they should've. They had A LOT of cheap, uncontested ball around the ground and didn't do a lot with it. They gave Collingwood death by-a-thousand-cuts.
So... how are we going to fare against the Western Accumulators?
Our game was much more hard-fought than our opponents. Disposals? We won by 9. Inside 50's? We won by 8. Hit-outs? We lost by 8. Clearances? Dead even, 30 a piece. Marks? We won by 7.
The difference?
Marks inside 50? We had 14 to their 5. Contested marks? We had 15 to their 8. Efficiency inside 50? We scored from 56% of ours, they scored from 45% of theirs.
We were challenged, and our kick-mark style combined with the experience of campaigners like McGovern, Hurn, Barrass, and Kelly stood up for us when it mattered. We have one thing that they don't: experience. Our cool, battle-worn heads emerged victorious over the young brigade last week, and I suspect we'll see the same this week.
Let them rack up their free fantasy points. The Bont may have had 28 touches, but it was at 60% efficiency, and the rest of them weren't too much better. Of the Dogs 8 players who tonned up on the fantasy board, only 2 of them operated at 80% efficiency or higher. They can have all the uncontested footy they like, because they're just going to cough it up.
I suppose it's harder to control a handpass when you're actually throwing it.
In summary: I don't like the Bulldogs.
PREDICTION: Eagles by 19 points
Best On Ground: Nic Naitanui will give Tim English a thorough education
TEAMS:
WESTERN BULLDOGS
B: B. Williams R. Gardiner C. Daniel
HB: T. Dureya A. Keath A. Treloar
C: P. Lipinski B. Smith L. Hunter
HF: B. Dale A. Naughton J. Dunkley
F: T. English J. Bruce M. Bontempelli
FOL: S. Martin J. Macrae T. Liberatore
INT: M. Wallis A. Scott L. McNeil L. Vandermeer
WEST COAST EAGLES
B: J. Rotham T. Barrass B. Sheppard
HB: T. Cole J. McGovern (c) S. Hurn
C: A. Gaff J. Redden J. Cripps
HF: D. Sheed J. Darling X. O’Neill
F: L. Ryan J. J. Kennedy O. Allen
FOL: N. Naitanui T. Kelly L. Duggan
INT: Z. Langdon N. Vardy J. Jones J. Nelson
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